A Realistic View at 2024: Part III

[moonslav59]

Fully realizing baseball is not all about stats, it is interesting to see how many highly ranked batters the Sox have, right now. If you set the bar at 300 PAs to get near 9 players per 30 teams and a sample size near 270, here are our rankings:

15. O'Neill .897 (just below Harper, henderson & Betts) Only 13 batters have a better OPS and more PAs than Tyler.

17. Devers .887 (Only 8 batters have more PAs and a higher OPS.)

24. Duran .845 (Nobody has more PAs than Duran, so you know where I'm going.)

31. Refsnyder.833 (His 306 PAs barely qualifies him for my list.)

37. Abreu .818 (Only 28 players have more PAs and a higher OPS.)

66. Yoshida .779 (376 PAs)

67. Wong .778 (49 batters have more PAs & a higher OPS.)

That's 7 pretty good bats.

 

 

[dgalehouse]

Tanner Houck has " right shoulder fatigue".  Fitts takes his place tonight. 

[Old Red]

24 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

Fully realizing baseball is not all about stats, it is interesting to see how many highly ranked batters the Sox have, right now. If you set the bar at 300 PAs to get near 9 players per 30 teams and a sample size near 270, here are our rankings:

15. O'Neill .897 (just below Harper, henderson & Betts) Only 13 batters have a better OPS and more PAs than Tyler.

17. Devers .887 (Only 8 batters have more PAs and a higher OPS.)

24. Duran .845 (Nobody has more PAs than Duran, so you know where I'm going.)

31. Refsnyder.833 (His 306 PAs barely qualifies him for my list.)

37. Abreu .818 (Only 28 players have more PAs and a higher OPS.)

66. Yoshida .779 (376 PAs)

67. Wong .778 (49 batters have more PAs & a higher OPS.)

That's 7 pretty good bats.

 

 

What would be really interesting is if all these stats led to the team to be a winning team, and make it into the postseason. This is all very misleading.

[Randy Red Sox]

2 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

I have no idea what team would do it, but I count pitchers ranked from about #61 to 90 as #3 SP'ers.

These might be pitchers like these:

by fWAR (1.7 to 2.0): jake irvin, J Tailon, Nick Pivetta, R Blanco, K Crawford

by ERA (3.85 to 4.25) Mitch keller, A healey, K Crawford, Gausman, jake Irvin, Bassitt

by xFIP (4.05 to 4.25:) Heaney, Bassitt, Taillon, Wacha, Blanco, Gausman

Some names are on 2 or 3 lists.

You think Pivetta is better than Abreu? (Now, the Sox need pitching, so we would probably not trade 3 years of Pivetta for 5 years of Abreu, and the gae and years of control matter, too, but I think many names I listed seem about even in value.

I did lis those who look much better or worse, but look for yourself:

https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders/major-league?pos=all&stats=pit&lg=all&type=8&season=2024&season1=2024&ind=0&pageitems=100&month=0&sortcol=19&sortdir=default&qual=80&pagenum=1

 

none of those guys excite me.  sox best re-sign Pivetta cause i dont see us getting anyone better with Henry's wallet as closed as it is

[Randy Red Sox]

8 hours ago, Bellhorn04 said:

JH is thinking they've made it through 3 years of this BS, one more should be cake.

quote of the day but i'd say it has been since the day he fired DD

[moonslav59]

18 minutes ago, Randy Red Sox said:

none of those guys excite me.  sox best re-sign Pivetta cause i dont see us getting anyone better with Henry's wallet as closed as it is

Do you see them as #3's? Because, if they are, then you now think he's worth more than many #3's.

Remember, I did not include some I felt were much better and would not be traded for Abreu.

The contract, age and years of service make other deals a mismatch, but the concept of 5 years of Abreu for cheap  for a #3 with 3 years of control and a moderate or cheap cost seems doable, in theory.

How about one of these deals:  5 yrs of Abreu for...

3 years of arbs on Nick Lodolo

5 years of S Woods-Richardson (doubt Min even answers the phone, but he's a #3 type.) Same with Bryan Woo w SEA.

5 years of Ronel Blanco

4 years of Ryan Feltner or 4 years of Bailey Falter (more like a #4's)

I'm sure there are more.
 

[Bellhorn04]

20 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

less timely hitting, which is not a sustainable skillset?

worse D, but that is captured by fWAR?

Bad luck?

Id run differential what we should use? I thought it was record. Are those two numbers most important?

In this case the W-L records and run differentials are BOTH virtually identical to 2023.

I'll stick with run differential as the go-to team stat.    

[Old Red]

20 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

I'm as pissed at JH as anyone else. His tightening of the budget is a major reason for where we are, right now.

That does not mean I'm going to lie about my increased optimism about our direction, and thinking we are better now than 2022 and 2023.

The Div is weaker, and the league is weaker, and the Red Sox record is around the same, so I don’t see any optimism in thinking the Red Sox are better now. 

[Bellhorn04]

2 minutes ago, Old Red said:

The Div is weaker, and the league is weaker, and the Red Sox record is around the same, so I don’t see any optimism in thinking the Red Sox are better now. 

Cleveland, KC and Detroit are all much improved over 2023.  That's the way this stuff usually works.

The Red Sox, mind you, are one of the really consistent teams the past 3 seasons. 😒 

[Old Red]

4 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

Cleveland, KC and Detroit are all much improved over 2023.  That's the way this stuff usually works.

The Red Sox, mind you, are one of the really consistent teams the past 3 seasons. 😒 

Especially consistent at the end of the season.

[Bellhorn04]

What do we say about Breslow and Bailey and the Driveline team's work with the 2024 bullpen?  

How's that revamped analytical approach paying off?   

Good thing Bailey has these guys throwing only their best pitches though, I guess.  Just imagine what it would look like if they weren't...

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

12 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

What do we say about Breslow and Bailey and the Driveline team's work with the 2024 bullCRAP?  

How's that revamped analytical approach paying off?   

(there, I fixed it for you...)

The Red Sox are just a sign of the times. In this land, in this century, there seems to be just one truth about lies: the more they're spewed, the more that dumb people will believe them.

As long as NESN keeps hyping weekly FEEL GOOD stories about FEEL GOOD players, and Fenway keeps pumping daily "SO GOOD, SO GOOD!" into the mindless masses who keep repeating the refrain, we'll all just feel good about the Sox, no matter how bad they suck, each and every August and September.

 

[Old Red]

25 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

What do we say about Breslow and Bailey and the Driveline team's work with the 2024 bullpen?  

How's that revamped analytical approach paying off?   

Good thing Bailey has these guys throwing only their best pitches though, I guess.  Just imagine what it would look like if they weren't...

Barnum, and Bailey it is.

[Randy Red Sox]

14 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

Do you see them as #3's? Because, if they are, then you now think he's worth more than many #3's.

Remember, I did not include some I felt were much better and would not be traded for Abreu.

The contract, age and years of service make other deals a mismatch, but the concept of 5 years of Abreu for cheap  for a #3 with 3 years of control and a moderate or cheap cost seems doable, in theory.

How about one of these deals:  5 yrs of Abreu for...

3 years of arbs on Nick Lodolo

5 years of S Woods-Richardson (doubt Min even answers the phone, but he's a #3 type.) Same with Bryan Woo w SEA.

5 years of Ronel Blanco

4 years of Ryan Feltner or 4 years of Bailey Falter (more like a #4's)

I'm sure there are more.
 

i admit to not know much about these guys.. However I don't think the Sox need any more # as our staff is already full of bottom end guys. Tanner Houck could be #3 but we need a true #1 and #2  if we are ever truly ever going to compete 

[notin]

30 minutes ago, Randy Red Sox said:

i admit to not know much about these guys.. However I don't think the Sox need any more # as our staff is already full of bottom end guys. Tanner Houck could be #3 but we need a true #1 and #2  if we are ever truly ever going to compete 

But your point was Abreu couldn’t be dealt for a#3 starter. Apparently what you meant was “Abreu couldn’t be dealt for a #3 starter I approve of, which is really a backend #1 or maybe a #2”

 

One of the many problems with the starter ranking BS…

[notin]

16 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

Fully realizing baseball is not all about stats, it is interesting to see how many highly ranked batters the Sox have, right now. If you set the bar at 300 PAs to get near 9 players per 30 teams and a sample size near 270, here are our rankings:

15. O'Neill .897 (just below Harper, henderson & Betts) Only 13 batters have a better OPS and more PAs than Tyler.

17. Devers .887 (Only 8 batters have more PAs and a higher OPS.)

24. Duran .845 (Nobody has more PAs than Duran, so you know where I'm going.)

31. Refsnyder.833 (His 306 PAs barely qualifies him for my list.)

37. Abreu .818 (Only 28 players have more PAs and a higher OPS.)

66. Yoshida .779 (376 PAs)

67. Wong .778 (49 batters have more PAs & a higher OPS.)

That's 7 pretty good bats.

 

 

Despite recent showings, the Sox are third in the AL in runs scored.  And surprisingly the rotation has an ERA of 3.00 so far this month.

The bullpen, on the other hand…

[Old Red]

20 minutes ago, notin said:

Despite recent showings, the Sox are third in the AL in runs scored.  And surprisingly the rotation has an ERA of 3.00 so far this month.

The bullpen, on the other hand…

Being 3rd in the AL in runs scored is a very misleading stat just as all the high OPS that the Red Sox batters have that Moon keeps touting. No doubt the BP has sucked, but despite all the high numbers from the offense for the season the batters share plenty of blame too for the 500 record.

[jgar658]

Most of the loses by the Red Sox are related to an awful bullpen or poor defense.  I was on the radio last nite when the game was Sox 4, Yanks nothing and yet knew we could easily lose.  As soon as two men got on base with walks the radio announcer was gloomy and kew what was coming.  He even predicted Boozer was going to fail.  All of us knew the situation was hopeless.

Most games are lost by our relievers despite the average quality of the our starters.

[moonslav59]

4 hours ago, Old Red said:

The Div is weaker, and the league is weaker, and the Red Sox record is around the same, so I don’t see any optimism in thinking the Red Sox are better now. 

That's fine, and those numbers do have significant meaning.

I see a better team and way more reason to be optimistic than I did before this season started. Again, the disclaimer that in no way am I playing into the JH & Co. scam by saying this. We could and should be much better. We can and should be much better, next year with just a limited increases in  our winter spending budget and the okay given that a top prospect can be traded.

Will that happen? I'm not expecting it, but it's not impossible, either.

[Randy Red Sox]

2 hours ago, notin said:

But your point was Abreu couldn’t be dealt for a#3 starter. Apparently what you meant was “Abreu couldn’t be dealt for a #3 starter I approve of, which is really a backend #1 or maybe a #2”

 

One of the many problems with the starter ranking BS…

OK let me be a bit clearer for you. I don't think Abreu could bring ON HIS OWN amore than a back end SP.  Perhaps he could be packaged with one of our top 4 prospects for a QUALITY young cost controlled SP. Abreu IMO is a nice player but OF are FAR easier to acquire than quality SP.

[moonslav59]

2 hours ago, notin said:

But your point was Abreu couldn’t be dealt for a#3 starter. Apparently what you meant was “Abreu couldn’t be dealt for a #3 starter I approve of, which is really a backend #1 or maybe a #2”

 

One of the many problems with the starter ranking BS…

I get the whole anti-SP'er ranking argument, and with so many stats and metrics swirling around, it's hard to get any consensus on which pitchers are top 30, 31-60, 61-90, 91-120 and 121-150. Plus, many have good reason to dispute that dividing them in this way is the way to determine who is a #1, 2, 3, 4 or 5. There is no set way to rank starters that even a large minority can agree on. That being said, the point about breaking SP'ers into groups based on their skill levels and or projected skill levels does help a person explain more accurately what type of pitcher a team needs to improve.  Surely, we all agree that adding a better pitcher should help more than adding a mediocre pitcher, and that mediocre is better than adding one that is barely good enough or promising enough to even make the average team's rotation.

We use the terms 1-2-3-4-5 to try and distinguish more precisely the skill level of a pitcher in question. There will always be debates about what that exact skill level is, like who was better, Stroman or Gio, last winter, but also, were either of them good enough to fit the needs our rotation had, last winter. We sometimes hear our team need rotation depth, and I don't disagree, but IMO, adding mediocre or borderline worthy rotation SP'ers is a losing strategy. It might have its place on a team that limits its budget, tightly, at times, but I don't see a team improving that much by adding a SP'er who is as good or worse than our 5th best SP'er. Can that help? Sure, especially if that guys does well, but the chances of a borderline rotation pitcher doing better that expected is lower than getting a better pitcher than a #5.

I've often stated that, in theory, getting a solid #1, or a SP'er better than your #1, actually improves not only the #1 slot, but the 2-3-4 and 5 slots as well, plus it adds the depth piece by making your #5 the #6. I still believe this as a theory, but I fully understand that the fact is, we just replaced our #5 with a #1 and added depth is the bottom line. Of course, it can all be blown up by an injury or unexpected steep decline, or adding a solid #3, who has  #1 season can do the opposite, but a GM has to work the odds and try and get the best he can, under his given circumstances.

To me, we need an ace, a number one, a really good SP'er, or as I like to frame it, a top 30 SP'er for 2025. You can call it anything you want. You can disagree with any pitcher I or someone else thinks is a top 30, a number 1 or just a "damn good SP'er." All those debates will never end, and rightfully should not, but the basic principle is a sound one: it's better to build up a staff by adding high quality arms than by trying to slightly improve the lower skilled pitchers by replacing them with mediocre ones. I'm not saying doing the latter is a bad thing, but to me, the Sox don't need better mediocre pitchers: we need top quality pitchers, with an emphasis on the "s." as in plural.

Once a season gets started, the 1-2-3-4-5 thing gets muddled, but I would rather see Houck start the 2025 season's 3rd game vs another  team's #3, than be our opening day starter. We'd improve our odds of winning not just game 1-2 and 3, but also 4 and 5 by moving our 2-3's to games 4 & 5, and so on...

[moonslav59]

34 minutes ago, Randy Red Sox said:

OK let me be a bit clearer for you. I don't think Abreu could bring ON HIS OWN amore than a back end SP.  Perhaps he could be packaged with one of our top 4 prospects for a QUALITY young cost controlled SP. Abreu IMO is a nice player but OF are FAR easier to acquire than quality SP.

But if you see most pitchers who are ranked between 60 and 90 as back-end starters, then the argument is over semantics not the true skill level of what a #3 SP'er is in reality, in MLB today.

The fact is, there just aren't that many really good SP'ers, but that does not mean a SP'er ranked somewhere around 60-90 is not a big improvement over a true "back-end" SP'er who may be ranked 91-150 or 110-160.

Take a look at a top 150 SP'er list based on w hatever your stat or metric of choice is and look at those who fall between 60-90 vs those below and significantly below. IMO, the difference is stark. (Of course, I'd rather package Abreu with others and get a 1-2 slot pitcher, but I still think Abreu is good enough to get several pitchers ranked 60-90, or at worst 40-100 and not only ones ranked 100-150.

What makes it difficult to project a possible is that when you look at all the names, you see pitchers who are at a different age, contract cost and or on teams that either don't need a RF'er or who also need pitching more than a RF'er. I get that point, and realize that most teams need better pitching more than better batting. That limits the trade pool, but in terms of something like fWAR, Abreu's WAR is higher than most on any 60-90 list you come up with. Also, many (not me) think everyday players have more value than 1 in 5 game players.

The other thing about making a list of the top 150 SP'ers from say 2023 to 2024, it overvalues older pitchers on the downswing, pitchers who are now battling injuries and undervalues younger pitchers on the upswing. The list does not count years of control remaining or contract cost, nor team trade needs, but here is a list based on fWAR from 2023-2024. I had to set the IP level to 150 IP total for 2 seasons to get the sample size to 150, which is pretty telling in a major way, but here it is, if you want to look.

Try to get a good idea of what the skill level is for pitchers in the 25-65 range vs those in the 85-155 range. If you still think Abreu is more likely to only get back an 85-155 pitcher vs a 55-95 one, then we are in disagreement. If you don't then the debate is really about what we think a #3 SP'er is. (open the link, if you wish.)

Here are some of the more well-known pitchers by slotting with my methodology: (It's not meant to say we should or can trade one for one.)
 

#3: Berrios, Pivetta, Stroman, Taillon, Schmidt, Bello, ERod, Fedde, Jake Irvin, Lorenzen

#4: Blackburn, T Walker, L Lynn, Paxton, Quantrill

#5: Maeda, Stripling, Martin Perez, Carrasco, Kopech

Do you really think Abreu could bring back just a Martin Perez type SP'er and not a Pivetta-Lorenzen type? (I chose those names, because we know how good they are.)

https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders/major-league?pos=all&stats=pit&lg=all&type=8&month=0&ind=0&startdate=&enddate=&season1=2023&season=2024&qual=150&pagenum=1&pageitems=200

 

 

 

 

[moonslav59]

2 hours ago, jgar658 said:

Most of the loses by the Red Sox are related to an awful bullpen or poor defense.  I was on the radio last nite when the game was Sox 4, Yanks nothing and yet knew we could easily lose.  As soon as two men got on base with walks the radio announcer was gloomy and kew what was coming.  He even predicted Boozer was going to fail.  All of us knew the situation was hopeless.

Most games are lost by our relievers despite the average quality of the our starters.

It sure seems that way, but we also lost many a game due to our SP'ers being in an awful funk, or our batters going on long slumps. Our defense has consistently helped lose many games, all year long.

Unearned runs allowed leaders:

(The Sox are 7th worst in runs allowed, but 10th worst in earned runs allowed.)

These are the bottom 10 teams in Earned Runs  Allowed and how many Unearned runs they allowed:

78 BOS

76 WSH

73 MIA

70 CWS

64 OAK

57 COL

58 LAA

54 TOR

40 TEX

38 AZ

MIN is 11th and allowed 47 UERs, BAL is 18th and let up 64 UERS,  KCR is 21st with only 42 UERs, NYY is 22nd w 57 UERs allowed,

[Larry Cook]

Defensively this year, I think the outfield of O’Neil, rafeala, Duran, refsynder, and abreau has been average to maybe decent! 
Catching is a below average. Wong is a dumpster fire, but Reese and Jansen are decent! 
the big problem is the infield! The infield is a dumpster fire! 
3B - devers is a dumpster fire! 
ss - everybody not named story had been a dumpster fire.  (Rafeala probably is below average at best).

2B - total raging dumpster fire!!!!.

1B - cassas and the others are all below average at best! 

[moonslav59]

3 minutes ago, Larry Cook said:

Defensively this year, I think the outfield of O’Neil, rafeala, Duran, refsynder, and abreau has been average to maybe decent! 
Catching is a below average. Wong is a dumpster fire, but Reese and Jansen are decent! 
the big problem is the infield! The infield is a dumpster fire! 
3B - devers is a dumpster fire! 
ss - everybody not named story had been a dumpster fire.  (Rafeala probably is below average at best).

2B - total raging dumpster fire!!!!.

1B - cassas and the others are all below average at best! 

I'd call our OF defense better than "decent." Having to use Rafaela at SS, so much hurt, but it is what it is. In terms of numbers, our OF D ranked:

2nd in DRS at 40 (just 2 from #1)

T6 in OAA (13, which is 1 out away from being T 4th and 2 outs from T 3rd.)

13th in UZR150 (+1.3) a stat falling out of favor.

I know you are not talking 2025, but an OF of Duran-Rafaela-Abreu/Anthony looks top 2-3, to me.

I agree our catching looks bottom 5, if not #30th.

I agree that Casas and Devers are dumpster fires on D.

Our middle IF was stabilized a bit, by Rafaela at SS and DHam-Romy at 2B, but it was still below average. The hope of a healthy Story seems to be more and more like some dream, but there is a chance he brings the MI up to plus status. Who plays 2B might affect that, but if it's DHam-Romy, I think we'd be a plus. Campbell and Grissom are largely unknown on 2B defense. EValdez should never play an inning at 2B for us, again.

If all the stars align, maybe we see:

Big PLus at SS, LF, CF

Plus at RF and 2B

Real Bad at 3B, 1B and C

Moving Devers to 1B and Casas to DH or another team may change 1B to average and 3B to unknown. Teel may eventually improve the Catcher D, but these are big what ifs.

[Larry Cook]

25 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

I'd call our OF defense better than "decent." Having to use Rafaela at SS, so much hurt, but it is what it is. In terms of numbers, our OF D ranked:

2nd in DRS at 40 (just 2 from #1)

T6 in OAA (13, which is 1 out away from being T 4th and 2 outs from T 3rd.)

13th in UZR150 (+1.3) a stat falling out of favor.

I know you are not talking 2025, but an OF of Duran-Rafaela-Abreu/Anthony looks top 2-3, to me.

I agree our catching looks bottom 5, if not #30th.

I agree that Casas and Devers are dumpster fires on D.

Our middle IF was stabilized a bit, by Rafaela at SS and DHam-Romy at 2B, but it was still below average. The hope of a healthy Story seems to be more and more like some dream, but there is a chance he brings the MI up to plus status. Who plays 2B might affect that, but if it's DHam-Romy, I think we'd be a plus. Campbell and Grissom are largely unknown on 2B defense. EValdez should never play an inning at 2B for us, again.

If all the stars align, maybe we see:

Big PLus at SS, LF, CF

Plus at RF and 2B

Real Bad at 3B, 1B and C

Moving Devers to 1B and Casas to DH or another team may change 1B to average and 3B to unknown. Teel may eventually improve the Catcher D, but these are big what ifs.

For 2025 defensively 

LF Duran - below average.

CF rafeala - above average.

RF Anthony - above average. 
4th OF - refsynder - average. 
1B devers - dumpster fire.

2B - Campbell - average 

SS - story - average 

3B - meidroth - average.

reserve - Romy - below average
reserve - Grissom - dumpster fire.

reserve - Hamilton - dumpster fire. 
catcher - wong - dumpster fire, 

catcher - gasper - below average 

[moonslav59]

1 minute ago, Larry Cook said:

For 2025 defensively 

LF Duran - below average.

CF rafeala - above average.

RF Anthony - above average. 
4th OF - refsynder - average. 
1B devers - dumpster fire.

2B - Campbell - average 

SS - story - average 

3B - meidroth - average.

reserve - Romy - below average
reserve - Grissom - dumpster fire.

reserve - Hamilton - dumpster fire. 
catcher - wong - dumpster fire, 

catcher - gasper - below average 

Duran is a plus defender in CF and top 3 in LF.

Story, when healthy is top 5 at SS and top 2-3 at 2B.

Rafaela is top 5-6 in CF.

Abreu is top 10 in RF/ Anthony should be above avg.

Why would Devers be a dumpster fire at 1B? It might take a few weeks to adjust, but his main issue at 3B is not his glove or range, but his arm. Half his career errors are throwing.

[moonslav59]

The Sox have apparently pre-empted their Rule 5 protection choices by adding several players to the 40 before the 2024 season ends.

Fiits, Guerrero and now Penrod, who I viewed a sa bubble protectee.

My view of possible Rule 5 protectees to come:

3 Locks: Dobbins, Fulmer, Monegro

3 Possible: Jh Garcia (I'd protect him.) Gambrell, Liu

6 Long Shots: Bastardo, Castro, Jordan, Hickey, Sikes, Troye

I think we add 4 to the 40 with Jh Garcia being the 4th.

With 7 FAs coming off the 40 (not counting 60 Day IL Paxton) and 6 IL palyers needing to be added (Gio, Hendriks, Whitlock, Mata, Murphy & I Campbell,) we will need to DFA or trade 3 to make room for the 4. I think these might be the 3:

1. Shugart

2. Gasper

3. Horn or Sogard, Murphy, Booser or Mata

I don't see a roster crunch, until we add our 3rd or 4th FA, and even then, it does not seem to be a big issue. We might also trade 2 for 1 or one for a non 40 prospect.

[notin]

7 hours ago, Old Red said:

Being 3rd in the AL in runs scored is a very misleading stat just as all the high OPS that the Red Sox batters have that Moon keeps touting. No doubt the BP has sucked, but despite all the high numbers from the offense for the season the batters share plenty of blame too for the 500 record.

Hard disagree.   Several teams doing much less offensively - scoring fewer runs, putting up lower OPS - have better records.  Why? 
 

Run prevention.  The Sox defense has been at or near the bottom all season long.  The pitching started out hot, but then cooled off drastically.  And the bullpen has shown far too often no lead is safe.  Sure, the Sox could win more games if they scored more runs, but they’re already doing so at a very good pace. They could win even more if they could play better defense or the bullpen could hold a few more 3 run leads.  Just because they have the occasional cold stretch or get shut down by an elite arm doesn’t change this.  Do people think other teams don’t do this, too?

The one chink in their offensive armor is the struggle vs LHP.  And if you look at their runs scored and OPS in those games, the source of those struggles is obvious as well…

[Hugh2]

You can have identical pitching/hitting stats and go 3-7 or 7-3 over a 10 game span.  If you don’t hit when you pitch and vis versa it’s easy to lose more games than you should. To at least some extent, that’s bad luck.

what isn’t bad luck is defense.  The Sox suck on defense and it’s easily cost them at least several games this year.