A Realistic View at 2024: Part III

[notin]

They also needed to sign AAA starters just to fill out that rotation. If there's an emergency that calls for Jason Alexander, the Sox need to score a lot of runs and are probably in a really bad place.

 

4.82 ERA in 11 career MLB starts. Not eye-popping, but I’ve seen worse.

 

This week…

[moonslav59]

Our big addition for 2025 will probably be Giolito.

 

I am sure they view him as a big "addition," but I hope they decide we need another even better SP'er.

[mvp 78]

4.82 ERA in 11 career MLB starts. Not eye-popping, but I’ve seen worse.

 

This week…

 

That 1.625 WHIP would fit in nicely.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

I think they’ll go the Japanese route. Imanaga is making teams that didn’t go all in look like morons. The Asian pitchers are often cheaper and never have draft pick compensation attached. Granted, the superstars like Yamamoto and this coming off-season’s version Sasaki are going to be bank breakers. But there is quality in that second tier on occasion.

 

 

Yup, I had a line about the next import, but deleted it. They're probably looking at Yamamoto on the IL his first year and are glad they only blew a 10th of that on Gioelbow.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

Yup, I had a line about the next import, but deleted it. They're probably looking at Yamamoto on the IL his first year and are glad they only blew a 10th of that on Gioelbow.

 

The more I think about it -- and Breslow's goal of restocking/restructuring the entire system -- the more I lean toward many Priesters joining the seminary.

 

The Red Sox are determined not to part with any top prospects, but lower level guys just may be the capital they'll use to trade as they stockpile arms with potential for Bailey and his generals to mold.

 

New motto: Out of Quantity Can Come Quality!

[notin]

That 1.625 WHIP would fit in nicely.

 

5.04 FIP looks better than Crawford has given lately. As does the 56 IP in 11 career starts…

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

5.04 FIP looks better than Crawford has given lately. As does the 56 IP in 11 career starts…

 

"Lately" is the keyword for the rest of the season. Season stats on pitchers are worthless after the deadline -- guys are either trending or toasting.

 

Anyone watching the Sox since the All-Star Break knows which way the rotation is headed. And it's not like there's any help on the way...

 

If Cora has to go with Openers again, we may see comebacks of Breslow and Bailey on the mound.

[mvp 78]

5.04 FIP looks better than Crawford has given lately. As does the 56 IP in 11 career starts…

 

Kutter has been on a historic trend of suckitude though.

[Hugh2]

I don't think we had this sort of high prospect value, recently, and not the bottleneck situation we have, now.

 

I also think the unspoken plan was to build for 5 years (starting with mid season 2019.) That 5 years is up.

 

This is a new management team, but JH is the still here. I will no longer predict or expect him to spend heavily on a SP'er again. I think it's easier to envision him deciding to trade prospects for a lower cost TOTR pitcher, despite that not happening since Sale,

 

 

This was our top ten at the deadline in 2022.

 

Tristan Casas

Marcelo Mayer

Bryan Bello

Nick Yorke

Brandon Walter

Bryan Mata

Miguel Bleis

Ceddanne Rafaela

Josh Winckoswski

Chris Murphy

 

 

If they really wanted to, they could had any starting pitcher on the market if they went to a team and said "take any 3 (or4) from that group you want"

 

Weak farm system doesn't mean no farm system. And even weakened farm systems can still have a few blue chip prospects at the top.

[notin]

Kutter has been on a historic trend of suckitude though.

 

He’s likely gassed.

 

At 131 IP, he’s at his career high already. Unless you count the 143 IP back in 2019 in A/A+ ball…

[Hugh2]

Both Kutter and Tanner are obviously gassed. I don't know why they're not either going to a 6 man, or giving each one a skip in the rotation at this point.

 

If they have serious playoff ambitions this is essential. It's only going to get worse, as the season has two months left.

 

I think 6 man goes a long way

[mvp 78]

Both Kutter and Tanner are obviously gassed. I don't know why they're not either going to a 6 man, or giving each one a skip in the rotation at this point.

 

If they have serious playoff ambitions this is essential. It's only going to get worse, as the season has two months left.

 

I think 6 man goes a long way

 

They are gassed, but adding Criswell to the rotation just takes away from a pen that has also had its issues. At some point, Kutter and Houck have to push through it. If they are just 120 Inning guys, neither should be in the rotation going forward IMO.

[mvp 78]

He’s likely gassed.

 

At 131 IP, he’s at his career high already. Unless you count the 143 IP back in 2019 in A/A+ ball…

 

Why wouldn't you count 2019?

[Old Red]

They are gassed, but adding Criswell to the rotation just takes away from a pen that has also had its issues. At some point, Kutter and Houck have to push through it. If they are just 120 Inning guys, neither should be in the rotation going forward IMO.

Agree,

Like I said before just, because they have reached new career highs in innings pitched doesn’t mean they still shouldn’t be able to pitch.

[Old Red]

Why wouldn't you count 2019?

 

The arm doesn’t know what level of baseball you are throwing in. All pitches thrown are wear to the arm.

[Hugh2]

They are gassed, but adding Criswell to the rotation just takes away from a pen that has also had its issues. At some point, Kutter and Houck have to push through it. If they are just 120 Inning guys, neither should be in the rotation going forward IMO.

 

There are pros and cons to going to a 6 man, taxing the bullpen is one of them. You might have more flexibility though, with guys coming back and depth, that is debateable.

 

Fatigue doesn't go away, you don't push through it. If you've been up for 24 hours and our tired, you don't get less tired by just sticking it out and staying up even longer, you just get more tired. At the end of the day......it's going to get worse if they don't get some rest. I'm not sure if it's them not being more than 120 inning guys or just having a higher work load, I think most pitchers would experience some kind of fatigue once they start pushing past their limits. Tanner has barely ever pitched above 100 innings. Must guys aren't going to go past 100 to 180 innings AND then go deep in the playoffs. With the playoffs you're doubling their load.

 

I'll be more concerned if he's gassing out around 130-150 innings next year, rather than this year.

 

But getting more rest should reverse the symptoms

[Hugh2]

The arm doesn’t know what level of baseball you are throwing in. All pitches thrown are wear to the arm.

 

Exactly this

[notin]

Why wouldn't you count 2019?

 

Minor league hitters, on average, don’t have the same level of plate discipline as MLB hitters, aren’t as good at fouling off pitches to extend an at bat, and, well, get fewer hits. There’s a reason many of them never advance to the next level. All of this can result in a pitcher throwing fewer pitches per inning.

 

It’s not like there is a hard limit attached to number of pitches in an IP. And it’s the pitches thrown that matter…

[notin]

Agree,

Like I said before just, because they have reached new career highs in innings pitched doesn’t mean they still shouldn’t be able to pitch.

 

But it’s also not uncommon for pitchers to wear out and become much less effective as the IP piles up. This is a big part of the reason many pitchers struggle in the postseason, sometimes to the point of struggling the following season as well…

[mvp 78]

Minor league hitters, on average, don’t have the same level of plate discipline as MLB hitters, aren’t as good at fouling off pitches to extend an at bat, and, well, get fewer hits. There’s a reason many of them never advance to the next level. All of this can result in a pitcher throwing fewer pitches per inning.

 

It’s not like there is a hard limit attached to number of pitches in an IP. And it’s the pitches thrown that matter…

 

https://www.milb.com/player/kutter-crawford-676710

 

His pitches per innings pitched in 2019 was 17.93. This year, it's 15.33. He's throwing less pitches each inning so far. The past 4 starts, he threw 17.96 close to 2019 number.

[notin]

https://www.milb.com/player/kutter-crawford-676710

 

His pitches per innings pitched in 2019 was 17.93. This year, it's 15.33. He's throwing less pitches each inning so far. The past 4 starts, he threw 17.96 close to 2019 number.

 

I’m glad that data does exist. So Crawford has managed to throw more pitches in the past, but he is still clearly gassed at this point.

 

17.9 pitches per inning in A ball seems like a lot. Even for a pitcher striking out 10 batters per 9 innings…

[mvp 78]

But it’s also not uncommon for pitchers to wear out and become much less effective as the IP piles up. This is a big part of the reason many pitchers struggle in the postseason, sometimes to the point of struggling the following season as well…

 

They are worn out, but they have to figure out a way to keep going and be productive or this team won't get into the playoffs. Even if they add a 6th starter, I don't know how much more it's going to help Houck and Crawford. They are both really showing why we all had questions about the rotation going into the season.

[mvp 78]

I’m glad that data does exist. So Crawford has managed to throw more pitches in the past, but he is still clearly gassed at this point.

 

17.9 pitches per inning in A ball seems like a lot. Even for a pitcher striking out 10 batters per 9 innings…

 

Kutter was never considered a high ceiling guy. I bet if we went back and looked at initial scouting reports from SoxProspects, he's probably already exceeded their expectation. He fell really hard in their rankings and wasn't a great pitcher at times in the system. I think he's a late bloomer who has learned to pitch to contact a little bit. Unfortunately, it's gotten away from him recently.

[mvp 78]

But it’s also not uncommon for pitchers to wear out and become much less effective as the IP piles up. This is a big part of the reason many pitchers struggle in the postseason, sometimes to the point of struggling the following season as well…

 

And they built their rotation on

 

Bello - young and unproven

Houck - never pitched a full season as a starter

Kutter - never pitched a full season as a starter

Whitlock - injury risk and never pitched a full season as a starter

Pivetta - 5th starter history with mild upside

Giolito - workhorse who pitched like dogshit at the end of last season

 

Without in-season replacements, it was easy to see how this could turn into a house of cards at some point after a hot start.

[notin]

And they built their rotation on

 

Bello - young and unproven

Houck - never pitched a full season as a starter

Kutter - never pitched a full season as a starter

Whitlock - injury risk and never pitched a full season as a starter

Pivetta - 5th starter history with mild upside

Giolito - workhorse who pitched like dogshit at the end of last season

 

Without in-season replacements, it was easy to see how this could turn into a house of cards at some point after a hot start.

 

The in-season guys have are shaky. Criswell has pitched very well on occasion, but his track record is negligible. Paxton is not exactly a durability machine at this point in his career either. But it takes a lot for someone to start touting for Jason Alexander to provide some relief…

[mvp 78]

The in-season guys have are shaky. Criswell has pitched very well on occasion, but his track record is negligible. Paxton is not exactly a durability machine at this point in his career either. But it takes a lot for someone to start touting for Jason Alexander to provide some relief…

 

I believe they were counting on Wikelman for depth this year. He took a dramatic step backwards.

 

Maybe next season they'll have Priester, Fitts, Sandlin and maybe others to rely on?

[notin]

And they built their rotation on

 

Bello - young and unproven

Houck - never pitched a full season as a starter

Kutter - never pitched a full season as a starter

Whitlock - injury risk and never pitched a full season as a starter

Pivetta - 5th starter history with mild upside

Giolito - workhorse who pitched like dogshit at the end of last season

 

Without in-season replacements, it was easy to see how this could turn into a house of cards at some point after a hot start.

 

The late-season collapses of Houck and Crawford might be why the extension went to Bello. While neither had fallen apart at the time, maybe the FO had similar durability concerns.

 

Now why they didn’t act on them and get a less fragile SP at the deadline is another matter…

[notin]

I believe they were counting on Wikelman for depth this year. He took a dramatic step backwards.

 

Maybe next season they'll have Priester, Fitts, Sandlin and maybe others to rely on?

 

I’m surprised no one has nicknamed that guy Walkelman at this point…

[Bellhorn04]

I’m surprised no one has nicknamed that guy Walkelman at this point…

 

Whiffle Man would be preferable.

[notin]

Whiffle Man would be preferable.

 

Unfortunately “Walk ‘em In” is more accurate…