The Grissom Watch

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

This sums things up pretty well. Nobody else was knocking on Gio’s door either.

 

That one irked me from the beginning -- he was the cheaper starting pitcher option that nobody else wanted (after two bad seasons) that the Red Sox thought could fill a uniform and help them get through another two bridge years... unless he was good; then he could opt out and get more money from another team than Boston would give him.

 

Should have just saved the dough and added Brad Keller in the first place. At least he's throwing now.

[moonslav59]

Yeah, they've really just chosen the wrong players to spend on. First, they should have spent on Mookie. Duh. Sale, not a great investment. Story was injured when they signed him. Most other franchises valued Masa much lower and seem to be correct. Bringing JBJ back. Kluber. Extending Rafaela and Bello too early. Devers overpaid?

 

This makes sense. I'm not sure about the Bello/Rafaela comment, but time will tell. We bet on their future, not just a couple months.

[notin]

This makes sense. I'm not sure about the Bello/Rafaela comment, but time will tell. We bet on their future, not just a couple months.

 

Plus they tried to extend Casas, but couldn’t come to an agreement. Yet…

[notin]

when Saler collects his CY Award will we still say we won this trade?

 

No one is saying the Sox won this trade. As ridiculous as that notion always is.

 

Just that it was understandable to move Chris Sale given what he has done the last 5 seasons. If the Sox kept Sale and he was already out for the year, would you be happy they kept him? Even if you heard they had a chance to deal him?

[notin]

That one irked me from the beginning -- he was the cheaper starting pitcher option that nobody else wanted (after two bad seasons) that the Red Sox thought could fill a uniform and help them get through another two bridge years... unless he was good; then he could opt out and get more money from another team than Boston would give him.

 

Should have just saved the dough and added Brad Keller in the first place. At least he's throwing now.

 

Be fair to Giolito. Two teams clearly wanted him last year. When the Sox signed him, the starting pitching market beyond Japanese imports hadn’t budged yet…

[moonslav59]

Orioles look good now, but they went 6 straight years under .500 very recently. This just may be them reaping a great farm system as they did from 12-16. Boom bust period? From 98-11, they were under 500 every single season.

 

The long and sustained success by the Astros followed a similar path.

 

The Sox never hit the rock bottom those two teams did, so we did not get the #1-#3 picks, year after year, like they did. Our farm is not as good as theirs was, which is understandable.

 

Some wise picks by DD & Bloom and a few losing seasons have helped build up the farm and the young/younger core of the 26 man roster, but it does not seem to be enough, even if a lot goes right with the kids.

 

We will almost certainly need some big spending or a massive change in luck or whatever you want to call it on choosing who we spend moderately on.

 

Had Sale gotten hurt, again and Gio returned to 90% of his form or Grissom was at a .780 OPS, which all seemed possible in March, the talk would be much different, right now.

 

We've made some very bad choices, of which number one was not keeping Betts. It seems like that choice jinxed us.

 

You also get what you pay for and trying to strike gold with $10M/1 deals for SP'ers is asking for trouble.

 

The Story and Yoshida signings hurt, badly, and not just because of their failure to produce. The budget space they ate up, prevented gains in other areas.

 

Gio is like Kluber + Richards.

 

It's hard to blame Brez for choosing Gio over someone like maybe Stroman. He got one signing wrong, but it was his biggest signing. His next biggest deal was Sale & $$$ for Grissom. That is not looking good, so far.

 

Like Bloom, his lesser deals seem to be working better. I hope his results don't mirror Bloom's.

[mvp 78]

This sums things up pretty well. Nobody else was knocking on Gio’s door either.

 

I don't have a problem with the Gio signing. File that under s*** happens.

[mvp 78]

The 2015 Royals were not "bottom 5," but they spent about half as much as #2 NYY and significantly less than half of the #1 LAD.

 

16: .500

17 - 23: below .500

 

2015 was the only season the Royals have won 90 games since 1989.

[mvp 78]

This makes sense. I'm not sure about the Bello/Rafaela comment, but time will tell. We bet on their future, not just a couple months.

 

The fact that you have to say "time will tell" is showing that they are not living up to what they extensions were.

[Bellhorn04]

No one is saying the Sox won this trade. As ridiculous as that notion always is.

 

Just that it was understandable to move Chris Sale given what he has done the last 5 seasons. If the Sox kept Sale and he was already out for the year, would you be happy they kept him? Even if you heard they had a chance to deal him?

 

The only thing is that when he did pitch, he still pitched pretty well. He showed that the ability was still there. That's why the Braves decided to take a shot.

 

To me it's a tale of two teams. One of them acting like a big market team trying to win, the other continuing to kick it down the road in spite of the full throttle ********.

[notin]

I don't have a problem with the Gio signing. File that under s*** happens.

 

Plus the gripe is focused around no one else apparently wanting him.

 

Giolito signed on January 3rd. The pitching market outside of Yamamoto and Nola had barely budged. Giolito wasn’t going to be ignored forever, and if the Sox waited the price could have easily gone up as alternatives dwindled…

[Bellhorn04]

The fact that you have to say "time will tell" is showing that they are not living up to what they extensions were.

 

These are tough calls. The earlier you sign them the cheaper, but there's also the chance they never live up.

[notin]

The only thing is that when he did pitch, he still pitched pretty well. He showed that the ability was still there. That's why the Braves decided to take a shot.

 

To me it's a tale of two teams. One of them acting like a big market team trying to win, the other continuing to kick it down the road in spite of the full throttle ********.

 

First of all, “when he did pitch” shouldn’t be a dismissive qualifier in this case. It was a major factor.

 

He did pitch pretty well, posting a 3.92 FIP across his last 9 starts. But why is that suddenly such a guarantee? In his last 9 starts of 2022, Kluber posted a 3.89 FIP and we all saw how that turned out. The notion that Sale was clearly over his injury history and going to pitch like he did seven years ago is based on hindsight and nothing else. Kluber was a lesser risk last year, and that was a clear mistake.

 

The Braves took a gamble and it’s paying off. They knew it was risky, which is why the Sox had to pay the bulk of the salary. It’s working out great for them so far, but in the event Sale did get hurt, the Braves were well-positioned to handle it. When Spencer Strider went down, he was replaced in the rotation with a pitcher who was an MLB All Star last year!! The Sox have no MLB All Star starters; the Braves had one they cut from the MLB roster.

 

And didn’t you make some comment about Kluber last year being a potentially disastrous signing that could derail the season? But now this year, Sale was supposed to be an obvious keeper? Who, if counted in, would have surprised no one if he went down for the season in April and left the Sox counting of Grant Gambrell and Brian Van Belle, neither of whom has ever been named to an MLB All Star team…

[moonslav59]

The fact that you have to say "time will tell" is showing that they are not living up to what they extensions were.

 

After less than 2 months on Rafaela?

 

lol!

 

Bello is doing worse than I hoped for in his 8 GS sample size.

 

Whoop-Dee- freaking- do

[moonslav59]

First of all, “when he did pitch” shouldn’t be a dismissive qualifier in this case. It was a major factor.

 

He did pitch pretty well, posting a 3.92 FIP across his last 9 starts. But why is that suddenly such a guarantee? In his last 9 starts of 2022, Kluber posted a 3.89 FIP and we all saw how that turned out. The notion that Sale was clearly over his injury history and going to pitch like he did seven years ago is based on hindsight and nothing else. Kluber was a lesser risk last year, and that was a clear mistake.

 

The Braves took a gamble and it’s paying off. They knew it was risky, which is why the Sox had to pay the bulk of the salary. It’s working out great for them so far, but in the event Sale did get hurt, the Braves were well-positioned to handle it. When Spencer Strider went down, he was replaced in the rotation with a pitcher who was an MLB All Star last year!! The Sox have no MLB All Star starters; the Braves had one they cut from the MLB roster.

 

And didn’t you make some comment about Kluber last year being a potentially disastrous signing that could derail the season? But now this year, Sale was supposed to be an obvious keeper? Who, if counted in, would have surprised no one if he went down for the season in April and left the Sox counting of Grant Gambrell and Brian Van Belle, neither of whom has ever been named to an MLB All Star team…

 

Well stated.

[mvp 78]

These are tough calls. The earlier you sign them the cheaper, but there's also the chance they never live up.

 

They weren't cheap though! There isn't any cost savings with the extensions offered unless Bello and Rafaela beat expectations.

[mvp 78]

After less than 2 months on Rafaela?

 

lol!

 

Bello is doing worse than I hoped for in his 8 GS sample size.

 

Whoop-Dee- freaking- do

 

Why extend him for near Strider money? Doesn't make sense.

 

Why extend Rafaela if he hasn't shown he can even hit at the MLB level? Glove first guys are cheap as Hell.

[moonslav59]

Why extend him for near Strider money? Doesn't make sense.

 

Why extend Rafaela if he hasn't shown he can even hit at the MLB level? Glove first guys are cheap as Hell.

 

Im not saying I’m happy with the amounts, but it is way to early to know.

 

Your opinion is valid, especially on the dollar amounts, but I like locking up promising young players, knowing some will not work out.

 

I wish we had locked up Casas, Houck and Crawford early, but there were doubts about them, too.

[notin]

They weren't cheap though! There isn't any cost savings with the extensions offered unless Bello and Rafaela beat expectations.

 

Doesn't Rafaela only need to be a 1.0 fWAR centerfielder to beat expectations?

 

I think he can at least do that...

[moonslav59]

Why extend him for near Strider money? Doesn't make sense.

 

Why extend Rafaela if he hasn't shown he can even hit at the MLB level? Glove first guys are cheap as Hell.

 

Once a young player proves he can hit, the price goes way up.

 

That is a valid reason, right?

 

[notin]

Why extend him for near Strider money? Doesn't make sense.

 

Why extend Rafaela if he hasn't shown he can even hit at the MLB level? Glove first guys are cheap as Hell.

 

Glove first guys are very cheap, and clearly they think he will be much more. But I think there is also the thought that he will be elite defensively even among the glove first guys.

 

And some of those glove-first guys like Kiermeier are signing for a higher AAV than Rafaela, and those guys are on the downside of their careers.

 

They could have waited, but if Cedddane did become even a league-average hitter, do you think he signs the same extension? I mean, he might. But I am not so sure his agent does not value him higher...

[notin]

Once a young player proves he can hit, the price goes way up.

 

That is a valid reason, right?

 

 

The bat-first players who got early extensions - Singleton, Kingery, Chourio, even Corbin Carroll - also all look questionable now or in hindsight. Paying for the glove is safer. But it's not unreasonable to question it, either...

[notin]

They weren't cheap though! There isn't any cost savings with the extensions offered unless Bello and Rafaela beat expectations.

 

I saw an opinion somewhere saying the Sox should have given Bello's extension to Crawford instead. Speaking as a pro-Crawford extension guy, that is a remarkably impulsive call. By the end of the year, I would expect Bello to justify this extension more than Crawford would...

[moonslav59]

The bat-first players who got early extensions - Singleton, Kingery, Chourio, even Corbin Carroll - also all look questionable now or in hindsight. Paying for the glove is safer. But it's not unreasonable to question it, either...

 

Yup. These types of signings are gambles but less costly than gambles on Story, Yoshida or adding all the one year signings up.

[notin]

These are tough calls. The earlier you sign them the cheaper, but there's also the chance they never live up.

 

I like the idea of signing them early to cheaper deals and letting the ones that work out justify the ones that don't...

[Old Red]

I don't have a problem with the Gio signing. File that under s*** happens.

 

I don’t have a problem with the signing either, but it just doesn’t make sense if you are trying to save money to just shave $10M on Sale, but go out, and sign Gio for $18M.

[Old Red]

Plus the gripe is focused around no one else apparently wanting him.

 

Giolito signed on January 3rd. The pitching market outside of Yamamoto and Nola had barely budged. Giolito wasn’t going to be ignored forever, and if the Sox waited the price could have easily gone up as alternatives dwindled…

 

No Gio wasn’t going to be ignored forever, but maybe you could have got him signed for less money. I DOUBT very much the price would have gone up. He basically finished last season as a batting practice pitcher serving up HR balls.

[mvp 78]

Doesn't Rafaela only need to be a 1.0 fWAR centerfielder to beat expectations?

 

I think he can at least do that...

 

The expectations are that he would be paid 750k for the next 3 years. If he went to ARB, he's not getting 8M for his current production or even 1 fWAR.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

Plus the gripe is focused around no one else apparently wanting him.

 

Giolito signed on January 3rd. The pitching market outside of Yamamoto and Nola had barely budged. Giolito wasn’t going to be ignored forever, and if the Sox waited the price could have easily gone up as alternatives dwindled…

 

The gripe is the opt-out, which obviously Giolito would only take if he bounced back and was good. It defies logic that a club so desperate for dependable starting pitchers that are also good would agree to let him go -- since no one in the industry or here on fan boards expected the Red Sox to pay him even more than $19 million per for multiple more years (which would be more than Texas pays Eovaldi, one of the greatest postseason pitchers of the century).

 

That clause is what makes the whole deal so suspicious, and reeks of bridgework. If the Red Sox didn't really expect a guy with a 5 ERA the past two years to be that good, they knew he wouldn't opt out, which means that they were just settling for someone to wear the jersey, take a regular turn on the mound, and fill out a starting nine so they could sell tickets to diehards and out-of-town fans visiting the Fenway experience.

 

Giolito had it made, and still does: $39 million, no matter how bad he was... with the outside chance to make tens of millions more -- in some other city -- if his elbow could just handle one season of Bailey magic. Maybe it's next year.

[mvp 78]

Once a young player proves he can hit, the price goes way up.

 

That is a valid reason, right?

 

 

Way up? If he could hit 750, it'd be fine for the extension as it might meet the ARB projection. Anything less is throwing money away.