The Grissom Watch

[Bellhorn04]

Given Sale’s past 4 years, this trade looked like it was going to boil down to one of two options.

 

1. Pay Sale $27mill to not pitch or pitch very little.

2. Pay Sale $17mill to not pitch or pitch very little elsewhere in exchange for a prospect that Breslow liked.

 

The past four years we called him “Chris Frail” and described him by saying “you can’t count on Sale.” Are you sure he was really viewed as a reliable source of pitching?

 

This is some combination of incredibly bad reading comprehension and a feeble strawman attempt. Not once have I ever discounted the injury factor.

 

This might actually be the worst post I've ever read by you.

[notin]

This is a combination of incredibly bad reading comprehension and a feeble strawman attempt. Not once have I never discounted the injury factor.

 

This might actually be the worst post I've ever read by you.

 

Really?

 

 

Ok looking at it, that wasn’t the post I meant to respond, too. But it still makes your response look a tad questionable.

 

But past that. Do you think those were the options Breslow was looking at or not? That Sale has resurrected himself seems like the biggest shock to me…

[Old Red]

Really?

 

 

Ok looking at it, that wasn’t the post I meant to respond, too. But it still makes your response look a tad questionable.

 

But past that. Do you think those were the options Breslow was looking at or not? That Sale has resurrected himself seems like the biggest shock to me…

 

The more you post the more N you rack up. You’ll have more N than Sale does K’s.🙈🤭

[Bellhorn04]

Really?

 

 

Ok looking at it, that wasn’t the post I meant to respond, too. But it still makes your response look a tad questionable.

 

But past that. Do you think those were the options Breslow was looking at or not? That Sale has resurrected himself seems like the biggest shock to me…

 

Sale was healthy at the end of 2023. And in spite of all the injuries, he has always been a very dedicated and competitive guy.

 

I'm not shocked he's pitching well. I'm a little surprised he's back at peak level.

[Bellhorn04]

The Braves placed a $21 million bet on Sale. ($38 million guaranteed - the Sox $17 million assistance)

 

If you think it was a virtual sure thing Sale would be lost to injury, you must also think the Braves are boobs.

[notin]

The Braves placed a $21 million bet on Sale. ($38 million guaranteed - the Sox $17 million assistance)

 

If you think it was a virtual sure thing Sale would be lost to injury, you must also think the Braves are boobs.

 

 

Do you think that Sale’s recent injury history was a huge factor in his trade or not? Do you think the Sox should have counted on Sale to lead this staff or not? If not, how many IP should they have pencilled him in for?

[notin]

Sale was healthy at the end of 2023. And in spite of all the injuries, he has always been a very dedicated and competitive guy.

 

I'm not shocked he's pitching well. I'm a little surprised he's back at peak level.

 

 

He hasn’t been at peak level since 2018 and even then he flatlined the end of that season.

 

His “healthy” at the end of last year was 43 IP across 9 starts. It was certainly progress, but how much faith should the Sox have put in that sample size?

 

Also, sure he is a dedicated and competitive guy, but how does he differ on this regard from the rest of MLB?

Edited May 26, 2024 by notin

[moonslav59]

Seems to me you had a strong opinion of the JBJ trade pretty quickly.

 

And on the other thread you're constantly handing out grades for performances for the season to date.

 

It really does seem you have one set of rules for yourself and one set for others.

 

I disliked the JBJ trade before JBJ even played a game after the trade.

 

I am fine with people disliking trades, including the Sale-Grissom trade. Have I ever said otherwise? Hell, I disliked the trade, at first, but then the more I thought about it, my opinion shifted to slightly liking it. Part of the liking it was based on the assumption, we'd use the $10M saved to add another piece, but I'm not sure we can say that, now.

 

I'm fine with anyone hating this trade. I just think it is too soon to give it a final grade, which it seems some are doing. If I am wrong on that, I stand corrected.

 

BTW, if DHam keeps looking like this, it might make the JBJ trade move from an F to a D or better, as the JBJ trade final grade is not quite complete.

 

I can see how I seem contradictory on these types of issues, and I appreciate you pointing that out. I do give strong opinions on things and don't seem all that tolerant on others doing similar things as I do. I will try to keep that in check, if I can catch myself.

 

I guess where I see a difference is that I did not base my opinion on the JBJ trade on his April and May sample size (and Renfroe's.) I think the fact that Sale has got off to a surprisingly great start, and Grissom has gotten off to a shockingly horrific start has created a situation where relatively small sample sizes are driving the discussion to brash statements that sound to definitive, to me. While it is certainly possible we don't get 4-5 years from Grissom, if he flames out, his sample size could end up being 4-5 years of sound play at a position we have been extremely bad at for 3 or more years.

 

I'm holding off judgment on the trade. I will say, my opinion went from dislike to like, but now it is looking more questionable than I felt in March. Another factor is that if we end up sucking, this year and next, having Sale likely would not have helped us get to the playoffs, and if Grissom does just okay for years 2-5 or 3-5, it might still help us more than Sale would have.

 

Only time will tell.

[notin]

The Braves placed a $21 million bet on Sale. ($38 million guaranteed - the Sox $17 million assistance)

 

If you think it was a virtual sure thing Sale would be lost to injury, you must also think the Braves are boobs.

 

Also it’s been explained to you multiple times why Sale made more sense for the Braves than the Red Sox. But if you’re not discounting the injury factor, why do you suppose the Sox made this trade?

[moonslav59]

Sale was healthy at the end of 2023. And in spite of all the injuries, he has always been a very dedicated and competitive guy.

 

I'm not shocked he's pitching well. I'm a little surprised he's back at peak level.

 

That is a strong point about Sale being healthy at the end of 2023. He was also pitching well, after his first 5 starts. Those 15 starts to end the season was his longest stretch of good pitching in about 5 years. The only season he even started 15 or more games since 2018 was 2019 (25 GS and a 4.40 ERA.) The last 15 starts of 2023 saw these numbers, and if this was what we thought he might give us for 28-33 starts in 2024, then the trade would be viewed more harshly at the time of the trade: 80 IP (5.1 IP/GS, 3.16 ERA and 3.41 FIP) That was not vintage Sale, but it was close enough to think he was back and a plus. I get that. To me, the promise of Grissom solving our 2B major problem for maybe 5 years, tilted the scales. It's not looking that way, right now, but it is way too early to think there is no or even little hope he will be an overall plus over the next few years.

 

That ending to 2023 by Sale was a good sign that he might be back healthy and doing well for 2024, despite his 4.30 overall ERA for 2023. Many posters prefer to use full season numbers to measure future projections, so those that do, should not really have viewed 2023's numbers as all that promising- healthy or not, (To be fair, the 3.80 FIP for 2023 was a bit more promising, but nothing like the 2.21 of 2024.)

 

No doubt, the trade looks horrible, now. If we had Sale and went with Romy/DHam at 2B, we'd probably be in a WC slot, right now. (I know many don't even look at WC standings until June, but we would likely be 3-4 wins better, right now.) There is still 2/3 of the season to go, and a lot can change in that time.

[Bellhorn04]

Also it’s been explained to you multiple times why Sale made more sense for the Braves than the Red Sox. But if you’re not discounting the injury factor, why do you suppose the Sox made this trade?

 

a) Explain all you want, I don't agree that he "made more sense" for the Braves - not unless the Red Sox fully intended to punt 2024.

My guess is this trade had a whole lot to do with the budget Breslow was given. We heard a lot of reports about the Sox telling people they had to cut payroll before they could sign a guy. They signed Giolito just days after trading Sale. Seems like a logical premise.

[Bellhorn04]

I'm fine with anyone hating this trade. I just think it is too soon to give it a final grade, which it seems some are doing. If I am wrong on that, I stand corrected.

 

You were questioning me for starting the thread. My initial post said nothing about giving the trade a final grade. "Grissom Watch" is not the same as "Grissom Disaster".

 

I can't control what other posters say.

[moonslav59]

He hasn’t been at peak level since 2018 and even then he flatlined the end of that season.

 

His “healthy” at the end of last year was 43 IP across 9 starts. It was certainly progress, but how much faith should the Sox have put in that sample size?

 

Also, sure he is a dedicated and competitive guy, but how does he differ on this regard from the rest of MLB?

 

He was pretty good over his last 15 starts (3.16 ERA/3.41 FIP)

 

He was even at 3.38/3.31 over his last 17 starts (a better FIP than 15 starts.)

 

Some other selected sample sizes:

 

Last 11 GS: 3.61/3.62

Last 9 GS: 3.92/3.96 is actually the worst sample size to choose out of the 4 I chose.

[moonslav59]

You were questioning me for starting the thread. My initial post said nothing about giving the trade a final grade. "Grissom Watch" is not the same as "Grissom Disaster".

 

I can't control what other posters say.

 

Point well taken.

 

To me it seemed like you were treating Grissom like you did McGuire, last year- very harshly over a very small sample size.

 

Yes, others took to more harsh statements about Grissom than you have made.

 

You did start the thread with a tidbit of hope that maybe the thread would turn him around, so it wasn't all harsh.

Edited May 26, 2024 by moonslav59

[notin]

a) Explain all you want, I don't agree that he "made more sense" for the Braves - not unless the Red Sox fully intended to punt 2024.

My guess is this trade had a whole lot to do with the budget Breslow was given. We heard a lot of reports about the Sox telling people they had to cut payroll before they could sign a guy. They signed Giolito just days after trading Sale. Seems like a logical premise.

 

Know what else seems like a logical premise?

 

That Sale asked the Sox for an extension or, at a minimum he asked for his option to be exercised. If Sale is as competitive as you say, certainly he would want some assurance of future chances to compete. And given the ever-shrinking Boston budget, I can see why they are hesitant. They got burned with one year $10mil with Kluber, whose career has some strong parallels with Sale’s.

 

The Braves extended him for 2 years $38mill 5 days after trading him. If the Braves are not boobs, then why are they committing 3 years $48mill to a pitcher who has thrown 150 IP in a 4 year stretch? All without ever seeing him pitch? I doubt 9 starts that averaged less than 5 IP each carried that much weight.

 

One reason this fits is the immediacy of the extension. Maybe without one, Sale does not approve of the trade. As a 10/5 player, he does have that right. And to sign him within 5 days is a strong indication that this process started earlier. I don’t know how long it take to draw up contract and get them reviewed and accepted, but 5 days seems extremely fast. Especially when, if Sale didn’t want one, it could wait a couple more months at a minimum.

 

I think there were multiple factors. Sox wanted to cut budget. Sale was a massive financial risk. Atlanta was willing to absorb it given their superior pitching depth. Sale possibly wanting more years. And at some point, the Sox agreeing to Grissom as part of the exchange…

Edited May 26, 2024 by notin

[moonslav59]

Know what else seems like a logical premise?

 

That Sale asked the Sox for an extension or, at a minimum he asked for his option to be exercised. If Sale is as competitive as you say, certainly he would want some assurance of future chances to compete. And given the ever-shrinking Boston budget, I can see why they are hesitant. They got burned with one year $10mil with Kluber, whose career has some strong parallels with Sale’s.

 

The Braves extended him for 2 years $38mill 5 days after trading him. If the Braves are not boobs, then why are they committing 3 years $48mill to a pitcher who has thrown 150 IP in a 4 year stretch? All without ever seeing him pitch? I doubt 9 starts that averaged less than 5 IP each carried that much weight.

 

One reason this fits is the immediacy of the extension. Maybe without one, Sale does not approve of the trade. As a 10/5 player, he does have that right. And to sign him within 5 days is a strong indication that this process started earlier. I don’t know how long it take to draw up contract and get them reviewed and accepted, but 5 days seems extremely fast. Especially when, if Sale didn’t want one, it could wait a couple more months at a minimum.

 

I think there were multiple factors. Sox wanted to cut budget. Sale was a massive financial risk. Atlanta was willing to absorb it given their superior pitching depth. Sale possibly wanting more years. And at some point, the Sox agreeing to Grissom as part of the exchange…

 

It does seem like an extension might have been agreed upon, before the trade was made: good point.

 

I also think the Sox were thinking they would likely not be accepting the 2025 option, so they viewed the trade as giving up 1 year- not 2 of Sale. Of course, the $20M option for 2025 looks a lot nicer, now than it did in March.

 

The re-working of Sale's contract on the extension is interesting.

 

He was due to get $27.5M in 2024 with a $20M club option for 2025. That would have been $27.5M/1 or $47.5M/2 had the extension not occured. With the Sox paying $17M, the cost to ATL would have been $10.5M/1 or $30.5M/2.

 

The extension lowered the 2024 amount to $16M (-$11.5M) but added $22M guaranteed for 2025, or $16M/1 or $38M/3. They basically gave him $10M more for 2025 with the 2024 offset. That is not some huge vote of confidence. The 2026 option is an $18M club option.

 

Since the Sox are paying $17M, which I assume is added to the ATL deal, Sale will actually make $33M in '24 and $22M in '25 or $55M/2 vs the possible $47.5M/2 previous deal with the option taken, right?

 

I'm not sure if the Sox $17M paid ATL is going to Sale (added to the $16M redo/extension) or ATL in 2024.

[notin]

It’s all fungible. The Sox pay the money to Atlanta. If Atlanta were to turn around and trade Sale, they can still keep the money from Boston if they (and the other team involved) so choose…

[Duran Is The Man]

Know what else seems like a logical premise?

 

That Sale asked the Sox for an extension or, at a minimum he asked for his option to be exercised. If Sale is as competitive as you say, certainly he would want some assurance of future chances to compete. And given the ever-shrinking Boston budget, I can see why they are hesitant. They got burned with one year $10mil with Kluber, whose career has some strong parallels with Sale’s.

 

The Braves extended him for 2 years $38mill 5 days after trading him. If the Braves are not boobs, then why are they committing 3 years $48mill to a pitcher who has thrown 150 IP in a 4 year stretch? All without ever seeing him pitch? I doubt 9 starts that averaged less than 5 IP each carried that much weight.

 

One reason this fits is the immediacy of the extension. Maybe without one, Sale does not approve of the trade. As a 10/5 player, he does have that right. And to sign him within 5 days is a strong indication that this process started earlier. I don’t know how long it take to draw up contract and get them reviewed and accepted, but 5 days seems extremely fast. Especially when, if Sale didn’t want one, it could wait a couple more months at a minimum.

 

I think there were multiple factors. Sox wanted to cut budget. Sale was a massive financial risk. Atlanta was willing to absorb it given their superior pitching depth. Sale possibly wanting more years. And at some point, the Sox agreeing to Grissom as part of the exchange…

 

the real problem here is "the ever-shrinking Boston budget", which is ridiculous for a team like Boston. i've said it before and i'll say it again...f*** JH and his giant FSG ego.

[Old Red]

ANOTHER excellent outing by Sale today. 7 inn, 4 H, 1 R, and 8 K. Imagine him, and Houck at the top of the rotation. I’m sure Atlanta appreciates the Red Sox paying $17M of his salary too.

[Nick]

ANOTHER excellent outing by Sale today. 7 inn, 4 H, 1 R, and 8 K. Imagine him, and Houck at the top of the rotation. I’m sure Atlanta appreciates the Red Sox paying $17M of his salary too.

 

Nah, had he stayed with the Sox, he'd be hurt.

[notin]

the real problem here is "the ever-shrinking Boston budget", which is ridiculous for a team like Boston. i've said it before and i'll say it again...f*** JH and his giant FSG ego.

 

It is a legitimate concern. It would be one thing of the Sox we’re holding out to spend on some Juan Soto superstar replacement. But it’s not going to happen.

 

And here’s the punchline - the whole “we’ll spend when the time is right” is complete ********. If the Sox minor leaguers start coming up and contributing, that’s even less of a reason to spend…

[notin]

ANOTHER excellent outing by Sale today. 7 inn, 4 H, 1 R, and 8 K. Imagine him, and Houck at the top of the rotation. I’m sure Atlanta appreciates the Red Sox paying $17M of his salary too.

 

From the guy who spent the last 3 years decrying that contract. And even coined the nickname “Chris Frail” ( which I will admit was clever)…

[notin]

Nah, had he stayed with the Sox, he'd be hurt.

 

When he moved to Atlanta, I assume he didn’t pack the bicycle…

[Old Red]

From the guy who spent the last 3 years decrying that contract. And even coined the nickname “Chris Frail” ( which I will admit was clever)…

 

I decried Sales extension the second it was signed. Also I didn’t coin the nickname Chris Frail. I heard that on the local sports talk show.

[notin]

I decried Sales extension the second it was signed. Also I didn’t coin the nickname Chris Frail. I heard that on the local sports talk show.

 

Well, sad. It was a good and accurate name.

 

I want wild about the extension when it was signed, but it couldn’t have gone any worse…

[Randy Red Sox]

It is a legitimate concern. It would be one thing of the Sox we’re holding out to spend on some Juan Soto superstar replacement. But it’s not going to happen.

 

And here’s the punchline - the whole “we’ll spend when the time is right” is complete ********. If the Sox minor leaguers start coming up and contributing, that’s even less of a reason to spend…

 

John Henry is NOT going to spend big EVER again. He's too busy looking over the top of his glasses to keep them from wearing out.

[Duran Is The Man]

yep, exactly.

[Duran Is The Man]

It is a legitimate concern. It would be one thing of the Sox we’re holding out to spend on some Juan Soto superstar replacement. But it’s not going to happen.

 

And here’s the punchline - the whole “we’ll spend when the time is right” is complete ********. If the Sox minor leaguers start coming up and contributing, that’s even less of a reason to spend…

 

yep, exactly.

[Maxbialystock]

John Henry is NOT going to spend big EVER again. He's too busy looking over the top of his glasses to keep them from wearing out.

 

Just so we're straight on what spending big entails--

 

Biggest payroll, $308M, is the Mets, who are 21-30.

3d biggest, $249M, is the Astros, 23-29.

5th biggest, $233M, is the Rangers, 24-29.

9th biggest, $226M, is the Jays, 23-38.

 

11th biggest, $182M, is the sox, 27-26.

 

26th biggest, $100M, is the Orioles, 32-18.

25th biggest, $101M, is the Guardians, 35-17.

22d biggest, $108M, is the Brewers, 30-22.

20th biggest, $115M, is the Royals, 34-19.

[moonslav59]

John Henry is NOT going to spend big EVER again.

 

So, the Devers extension, that kicked in this year and broke all records of Sox signings by nearly 50%, is the last big splurge by JH?