The Grissom Watch

[Bellhorn04]

Grissom

65 PA's

129/169/145 OPS 314

 

Dalbec

59 PA's

132/207/170 OPS 377

 

Grissom has to start turning this around soon, right?

 

Maybe me starting this thread will do the trick.

[Bellhorn04]

The thing I keep coming back to is that he's a PROSPECT. Yes, he had some major league experience in 2022 and 2023, and on the face of it the numbers he posted in 2022-23 were "OK" - a 105 OPS+. But if you dig a little deeper you'll see that he got off to a red hot start in 2022, with a 1.123 OPS in his first 14 games. After that he gradually cooled down. In his last 15 games in 2022 he hit 174/264/196 for an OPS of 460. His OPS in 2023 was 659. It's fair to say that after that red hot start in 2022 it's been mostly a struggle to hit MLB pitching.

 

I'm also a bit shocked at the lack of power. He hasn't homered in his last 54 MLB games.

[Randy Red Sox]

Jeter Downs act 2.. remember though the Sox won the trade even though they are still paying 17 million for Sale to pitch in Atlanta.

[Old Red]

Notin says Grissom is just unlucky to have his BA that low. Personally I think he’s lucky to have a BA as high as it is.

[notin]

Notin says Grissom is just unlucky to have his BA that low. Personally I think he’s lucky to have a BA as high as it is.

 

A BABIP of .167 with a line drive rate of 25% is absolutely unlucky. What’s your logic for calling him lucky, I ask, not expecting any sort of actual response?

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

More concerning to me is that the Braves changed their minds rather quickly on Vaughn Grissom. They were ok letting Swanson leave, and seemingly prepared to at least add Griz to last year's MLB roster. Opening Day they gave the starting shortstop position to Orlando Arcia -- a guy who hadn't been a big league regular since 2019.

 

Last Spring Griz hit .277 with a .622 OPS in 70 PA in the majors (numbers that dwarf his Red Sox start of .129 and .314 in 65 PA). Then Atlanta sent him back to the minors.

 

With no fit for Grissom on the parent club, the Braves were trying to make him an outfielder in winter ball. Then they traded him. The Braves rarely lose a trade.

[Old Red]

A BABIP of .167 with a line drive rate of 25% is absolutely unlucky. What’s your logic for calling him lucky, I ask, not expecting any sort of actual response?

 

Most fans I believe ONLY see one thing, and that his BA, and most don’t give a rat’s ass about his line drive rate, or BABIP, or anything else.🙈🤭

[notin]

Most fans I believe ONLY see one thing, and that his BA, and most don’t give a rat’s ass about his line drive rate, or BABIP, or anything else.

 

And what does that have to do with him being lucky?

 

Or will this just be another one of those “it’s just my opinion” things people like to hide behind?

Edited May 25, 2024 by notin

[Nick]

Everything I read from Atlanta papers was how bad he was at shortstop.

 

Look I am NOT married to anyone. I don't care who takes control of 2B. At some point he has to produce or he should be sent down to work on his game. You have to give him a path to succeed.

[Old Red]

And what does that have to do with him being lucky?

 

I’ll let you answer that one. That’s why you have all those N’s in front of your name.

[Old Red]

And what does that have to do with him being lucky?

 

Or will this just be another one of those “it’s just my opinion” things people like to hide behind?

 

I bet you are the ONLY one in Red Sox Nation that says Grissom is just unlucky.

[Bellhorn04]

In 2023's 80 PA's Grissom hit .280, but his OBP was only .313 and his SLG only .347.

 

I think there are more reasons to be concerned than just his BA. The lack of power and shortage of walks are issues too.

 

Even if more of the line drives start falling in we might be looking at an average or below average hitter.

[notin]

I bet you are the ONLY one in Red Sox Nation that says Grissom is just unlucky.

 

What’s your point? That I’m the only one who’s right?

 

The way Grissom has hit the ball, meaning his GB/LD/FB splits, his BA really should be .250-275 range. It’s nowhere near that.

 

So why do you say he’s lucky?

Edited May 25, 2024 by notin

[notin]

In 2023's 80 PA's Grissom hit .280, but his OBP was only .313 and his SLG only .347.

 

I think there are more reasons to be concerned than just his BA. The lack of power and shortage of walks are issues too.

 

Even if more of the line drives start falling in we might be looking at an average or below average hitter.

 

Yeah his 5% walk rate is definitely not good. It was 10% in the minors, but it’s going backwards…

Edited May 25, 2024 by notin

[jad]

Personally, I would rather have a guy with a high BA than a high 'line-drive-rate'. Since he hasn't hit a HR in two years, and fewer than half those line drives are hits, I'm guessing they aren't exactly bullets.

[Hugh2]

In 2023's 80 PA's Grissom hit .280, but his OBP was only .313 and his SLG only .347.

 

I think there are more reasons to be concerned than just his BA. The lack of power and shortage of walks are issues too.

 

Even if more of the line drives start falling in we might be looking at an average or below average hitter.

 

in only 75 ab's though?!?!?! meanwhile he put up a .921 OPS last year and a .419 OBP in AAA about 400 at bats. He was only 22 last year, he was brought up and throw into a playoff race, I don't think we've seen the best of Grissom yet. I hope so at least.

[Hugh2]

Yeah his 5% walk rate is definitely not good. It was 10% in the minors, but it’s going backwards…

 

He could be pressing now, the good about him is his defense looks fine at 2nd base to me

[notin]

Personally, I would rather have a guy with a high BA than a high 'line-drive-rate'. Since he hasn't hit a HR in two years, and fewer than half those line drives are hits, I'm guessing they aren't exactly bullets.

 

There’s usually a cause/effect relationship between a good line drive rate and a high BA. But it can be skewed by luck, especially in small sample sizes.

 

He has hit a few soft liners - his hard hit rate is far from elite - but even thise have an expected hit rate he’s just under. Soft liners land, too.

 

The guy is 2 for 24 on ground balls as well. That’s straight up unlucky. Weakly hit grounders can find holes. Really weak ones can be beat out for hit. Nothing like that is working for Grissom. (And a lot of that has been working for Dalbec, to whom he was compared in the original post.)

 

Of course, it’s only 65 PA. Most players with small sample sizes find themselves either lucky or unlucky…

[notin]

He could be pressing now, the good about him is his defense looks fine at 2nd base to me

 

I assume the pressing started a few weeks ago.

 

His better walk rates in the minors were in the years he had the most PAs, but often it’s easier to walk against a lot of MiLB pitchers, plenty of whom are in the minors for reasons related to wildness…

[Bellhorn04]

in only 75 ab's though?!?!?! meanwhile he put up a .921 OPS last year and a .419 OBP in AAA about 400 at bats. He was only 22 last year, he was brought up and throw into a playoff race, I don't think we've seen the best of Grissom yet. I hope so at least.

 

It just seems like there's such a vast gulf between minor league pitching and major league pitching now. Guys can absolutely rake in AAA and when they're promoted it's like they've run into a brick wall. And when you look at Grissom's 2022 game log, he got off to a tremendous start, but at a certain point the pitchers seemed to figure him out.

[notin]

I’ll let you answer that one. That’s why you have all those N’s in front of your name.

 

So I guess we will never know why Grissom should be considered lucky. Quelle surprise…

[Hugh2]

It just seems like there's such a vast gulf between minor league pitching and major league pitching now. Guys can absolutely rake in AAA and when they're promoted it's like they've run into a brick wall. And when you look at Grissom's 2022 game log, he got off to a tremendous start, but at a certain point the pitchers seemed to figure him out.

 

 

He's was 21 and rushed to the bigs, of course they figured him out.

This by no means guarantees he will ever figure it out but it's way too early to start judging him too. I think as fans we expect players to just come up and immediately be good.

 

Progress is never linear, just look at how guys like Pedrioa, JBJ, and Duran broke into the bigs. Even a guy like Xander Bogaerts had a sophmore slump and took him over 600 ab's until he turned into the player he really was.

[notin]

It just seems like there's such a vast gulf between minor league pitching and major league pitching now. Guys can absolutely rake in AAA and when they're promoted it's like they've run into a brick wall. And when you look at Grissom's 2022 game log, he got off to a tremendous start, but at a certain point the pitchers seemed to figure him out.

 

 

He just had a bad stretch for those last 5 games, which every hitter has. His BABIP splits were fairly normal at the end of that year, so it’s also arguable he started off very lucky and it just evened out over time. Basically, he was due for a slump. Given that he actually struck out much less in that slump than in the rest of the season, it does seem unlikely that pitchers suddenly figured him out. Just that stuff he hit that found grass the week before didn’t find any that week…

[Bellhorn04]

He's was 21 and rushed to the bigs, of course they figured him out.

This by no means guarantees he will ever figure it out but it's way too early to start judging him too. I think as fans we expect players to just come up and immediately be good.

 

I'd say some of the expectations of Grissom were put on him by the organization. They traded Chris Sale for him and penciled him as the 2024 second baseman. We heard stories about how he was a star in the making.

 

How much of a leash are they prepared to give him in a season that supposedly matters?

 

With Hamilton suddenly hitting so well, they now have options.

[notin]

We’re judging the guy after 65 PA and already calling him a failure (See Jeter Downs comp above). The 2007 ROY/2008 MVP Dustin Pedroia looked like crap for those first 98 PA in 2006 as well…

[Bellhorn04]

He just had a bad stretch for those last 5 games, which every hitter has. His BABIP splits were fairly normal at the end of that year, so it’s also arguable he started off very lucky and it just evened out over time. Basically, he was due for a slump. Given that he actually struck out much less in that slump than in the rest of the season, it does seem unlikely that pitchers suddenly figured him out. Just that stuff he hit that found grass the week before didn’t find any that week…

 

What about the stretch of 50+ games without a long ball? That's something no one seems to be talking about.

[Bellhorn04]

We’re judging the guy after 65 PA and already calling him a failure (See Jeter Downs comp above). The 2007 ROY/2008 MVP Dustin Pedroia looked like crap for those first 98 PA in 2006 as well…

 

True, but unfortunately Grissom's numbers are so epically bad it's hard not to fixate on them. They're worse than Dalbec's, and Dalbec's 2024 sample was enough to convince everyone that he's just not a major league hitter.

[Old Red]

we’re judging the guy after 65 pa and already calling him a failure (see jeter downs comp above). The 2007 roy/2008 mvp dustin pedroia looked like crap for those first 98 pa in 2006 as well…

 

nnnnn. 🤭🙈🤮

[Bellhorn04]

Pedroia benefited to some extent from having his adjustment period at the end of a lost 2006 season and then the first month of the 2007 season. Then he caught fire.

[notin]

What about the stretch of 50+ games without a long ball? That's something no one seems to be talking about.

 

What about it?

 

It covers parts of 3 seasons and about 150+ PA. His Stat Cast indicates he would have 1-2 HRs at Fenway in that stretch, but i think we expected him to be more than a 6 HR guy over a full season.

 

One issue with Grissom to date is he isn’t much of an exit velocity guy. And if you’re not going to hit the ball with authority, you do need to walk more than he does and probably strike out less.

 

But again - still SSS. Numbers spread across multiple seasons are not meaningless, but not necessarily representative since we don’t know if all other things (health, quality of opponent, etc.) are equal…