2024 Prospects

[Larry Cook]

9 hours ago, mvp 78 said:

Was listening to the newest SoxProspects podcast with Red Sox Player Development Director Brian Abraham and Brian said "if a player reaches AA it gives you a better idea if they are a suspect or a prospect." I believe my car airbags went off and sent me to TalkSox Valhalla.  

I did not know 1978 ford pintos came with air bags??? 

[moonslav59]

How does this group of prospects stack up to past ones? (Of course, it's a bit of apples to oranges, as we have the benefit of hindsight for past ones.)

2024: Anthony, Mayer, Teel, Campbell, Bleis, Perales, Fitts, Cespedes, Arias, Sandlin, Meidroth

2006: Lester, Pedey, Jake, Papelbon, Buch, Doubront, Bard, B Moss, D Murphy, Lowrie, Mrerdith, Delcarmen

2013: Betts, Bogey, JBJ, Barnes, Vaz, Iggy, Workman, Margot

2016: Devers, Moncada, Beni, Espinoza, Kopech, Dalbec

How about looking at a 4 year windows of prospects? We could add Houck, Whitlock, Duran, Crawford, Wink, bello, Wong, casas, Abreu, rafaela, Slaten and others to this group. 

Other time periods could add some awesome names, too.

 

[mvp 78]

1 hour ago, moonslav59 said:

How does this group of prospects stack up to past ones? (Of course, it's a bit of apples to oranges, as we have the benefit of hindsight for past ones.)

2024: Anthony, Mayer, Teel, Campbell, Bleis, Perales, Fitts, Cespedes, Arias, Sandlin, Meidroth

2006: Lester, Pedey, Jake, Papelbon, Buch, Doubront, Bard, B Moss, D Murphy, Lowrie, Mrerdith, Delcarmen

2013: Betts, Bogey, JBJ, Barnes, Vaz, Iggy, Workman, Margot

2016: Devers, Moncada, Beni, Espinoza, Kopech, Dalbec

How about looking at a 4 year windows of prospects? We could add Houck, Whitlock, Duran, Crawford, Wink, bello, Wong, casas, Abreu, rafaela, Slaten and others to this group. 

Other time periods could add some awesome names, too.

 

If you're going with a 4 year window:

Beni, Raffy, Xander, Betts, JBJ, Vaz, Iggy, Margot, Moncada, Kopech, Barnes, ERod, Dubon

is better than

Casas, Houck, Whitlock, Duran, Slaten, Bello, Crawford, Hamilton, Abreu, Yorke, Rafaela, Anthony, Mayer, Teel, Campbell

It really depends on how the fab 4 stack up to young Betts/Xander/Raffy over the next 6 years. 

[Duran Is The Man]

On 10/17/2024 at 9:57 AM, mvp 78 said:

Was listening to the newest SoxProspects podcast with Red Sox Player Development Director Brian Abraham and Brian said "if a player reaches AA it gives you a better idea if they are a suspect or a prospect." I believe my car airbags went off and sent me to TalkSox Valhalla.  

are you saying that Old Red is Brian??

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

21 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

How does this group of prospects stack up to past ones? (Of course, it's a bit of apples to oranges, as we have the benefit of hindsight for past ones.)

2024: Anthony, Mayer, Teel, Campbell, Bleis, Perales, Fitts, Cespedes, Arias, Sandlin, Meidroth

2006: Lester, Pedey, Jake, Papelbon, Buch, Doubront, Bard, B Moss, D Murphy, Lowrie, Mrerdith, Delcarmen

2013: Betts, Bogey, JBJ, Barnes, Vaz, Iggy, Workman, Margot

2016: Devers, Moncada, Beni, Espinoza, Kopech, Dalbec

How about looking at a 4 year windows of prospects? We could add Houck, Whitlock, Duran, Crawford, Wink, bello, Wong, casas, Abreu, rafaela, Slaten and others to this group. 

Other time periods could add some awesome names, too.

 

'13 is the only group with a certain Hall of Famer;

'06 has three borderlines (including two on the mound);

'16 has by far the most overhyped: two guys rated #1 overalls by various sites, the first "next Pedro" and another who supposedly threw 105 mph... plus, a $300 million-dollar man...

... so right now, the current group is most closest to the '16s

[moonslav59]

2 hours ago, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

'13 is the only group with a certain Hall of Famer;

'06 has three borderlines (including two on the mound);

'16 has by far the most overhyped: two guys rated #1 overalls by various sites, the first "next Pedro" and another who supposedly threw 105 mph... plus, a $300 million-dollar man...

... so right now, the current group is most closest to the '16s

Certainly, they have not proven anything, but it's hard to say they are closer to "overhyped" than the others I listed.

The 2016 farm is most known for bringing us some very valuable vets via trade. In some ways, one could argue that farm indirectly brought us more production than others: Sale, Kimbrel and Nate (maybe 2 will be HOF'ers.)

If we want to count indirect impacts, we can also add the values we got when some prospects left via free agency and the comp picks they brought us:

Kopech for Jake (Sale for Kopech and others)

K Campbell for Bogey

(We also got Anthony for losing ERod , but ERod was not really from "our" farm.) 

 

[Larry Cook]

On 10/25/2024 at 10:51 AM, moonslav59 said:

How does this group of prospects stack up to past ones? (Of course, it's a bit of apples to oranges, as we have the benefit of hindsight for past ones.)

2024: Anthony, Mayer, Teel, Campbell, Bleis, Perales, Fitts, Cespedes, Arias, Sandlin, Meidroth

2006: Lester, Pedey, Jake, Papelbon, Buch, Doubront, Bard, B Moss, D Murphy, Lowrie, Mrerdith, Delcarmen

2013: Betts, Bogey, JBJ, Barnes, Vaz, Iggy, Workman, Margot

2016: Devers, Moncada, Beni, Espinoza, Kopech, Dalbec

How about looking at a 4 year windows of prospects? We could add Houck, Whitlock, Duran, Crawford, Wink, bello, Wong, casas, Abreu, rafaela, Slaten and others to this group. 

Other time periods could add some awesome names, too.

 

2024 has the potential to be the best group of prospects since the 2013 group!!! 
and you forgot to add Montgomery to the list. I think he is going to have a great season in 2025. 
 

Off season to do list

1.) trade yoshida and cash to Arizona for Montgomery 

2.) sign fried 
3.) trade for Bryce miller or Braxton Ashcroft.

4.) sign 2 quality bullpen arms. (One lefty) 

5.) with a backup catcher 

this is a 90 win team if we do this. 

[moonslav59]

43 minutes ago, Larry Cook said:

2024 has the potential to be the best group of prospects since the 2013 group!!! 
and you forgot to add Montgomery to the list. I think he is going to have a great season in 2025. 

I can't believe i left Montgomery off the list!

I think our farm is deeper than many think it is, and it goes beyond the 5 or 6 that are ML ready, now. I also think the pitching will prove to be better than many think it is. Most, including me, never expected to see so many homegrown arms doing well in 2024: Houck, Crawford, Slaten, Bello, Fitts, Wink, Weissert, Kelly, Guerrero, Penrod, Priester...

We have a solid core of young players and top prospects.

[moonslav59]

47 minutes ago, Larry Cook said:

Off season to do list

1.) trade yoshida and cash to Arizona for Montgomery 

2.) sign fried 
3.) trade for Bryce miller or Braxton Ashcroft.

4.) sign 2 quality bullpen arms. (One lefty) 

5.) with a backup catcher 

this is a 90 win team if we do this. 

1. Trading Yoshida is a long shot. If AZ wants to dump Monty, they can get someone better for him.

2. Fried might be too high-priced. (I thought you felt JH would only go "moderate.")

3. I'd love to see us trade for a quality SP'er, but I think it's a long shot.

4 and 5 should be locks.

My wish list is too unrealistic. My guess is we do this:

1. Trade Abreu, DHam and Wink for a good RP'er and Catcher.

2. We sign Nick Martinez of Jack Flaherty,

3. We sign 2 RP'ers, but it won't be Tanner Scott and probably not Estevez, either.

4. We start the season with just 1 top prospect on the 40., maybe 2. Since I say we trade Abreu, I'm guessing Anthony is on the opening day 26, and Campbell gets added as soon a ssomeone goes on the 60 day IL. Mayer will only be added, if Story goes on the IL, or his service time clock clicks, and we need a better middle infielder than we have going, mid season. Teel may not be added until 2026. Meidroth- the same.

We may try to prolong the Fitts service time clock, too.

[Larry Cook]

12 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

1. Trading Yoshida is a long shot. If AZ wants to dump Monty, they can get someone better for him.

2. Fried might be too high-priced. (I thought you felt JH would only go "moderate.")

3. I'd love to see us trade for a quality SP'er, but I think it's a long shot.

4 and 5 should be locks.

My wish list is too unrealistic. My guess is we do this:

1. Trade Abreu, DHam and Wink for a good RP'er and Catcher.

2. We sign Nick Martinez of Jack Flaherty,

3. We sign 2 RP'ers, but it won't be Tanner Scott and probably not Estevez, either.

4. We start the season with just 1 top prospect on the 40., maybe 2. Since I say we trade Abreu, I'm guessing Anthony is on the opening day 26, and Campbell gets added as soon a ssomeone goes on the 60 day IL. Mayer will only be added, if Story goes on the IL, or his service time clock clicks, and we need a better middle infielder than we have going, mid season. Teel may not be added until 2026. Meidroth- the same.

We may try to prolong the Fitts service time clock, too.

Bres-slow has a ton of options to get us the pitching we need and to improve our defense 

[moonslav59]

28 minutes ago, Larry Cook said:

Bres-slow has a ton of options to get us the pitching we need and to improve our defense 

Agreed, even with a limited budget.

He can sign one really good pitcher or two decent ones and trade Abreu, DHam and Wink for two more, or one with a catcher.

That's minumum.

[Larry Cook]

6 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

Agreed, even with a limited budget.

He can sign one really good pitcher or two decent ones and trade Abreu, DHam and Wink for two more, or one with a catcher.

That's minumum.

Who are the 10 most valuable trade chips we have in the organization????

[moonslav59]

8 minutes ago, Larry Cook said:

Who are the 10 most valuable trade chips we have in the organization????

I don't have BTV access, but my top 10, in terms of trade value, which takes into acct money owed and years of team control:

1. Anthony

2. Duran

3. Houck

4. Mayer

5. Campbell

6. Teel

7. Slaten

8. Crawford

9. Abreu

10. Bello

Honorable mention:  Casas,  Montgomery or Arias

[Larry Cook]

How many of our prospects would hang’em Chaim be interested in trading for??

[moonslav59]

Per soxprospects.com...

After posting an 8-for-20 week, Brooks Brannon is hitting .333 with a .875 OPS this fall.

and

Enmanuel Valdéz hit his first home run as part of a 2-for-10 week with the Estrellas. He drew two walks and struck out three times as his triple slash moved to .149/.216/.213.

[Hugh2]

On 10/25/2024 at 11:51 AM, moonslav59 said:

How does this group of prospects stack up to past ones? (Of course, it's a bit of apples to oranges, as we have the benefit of hindsight for past ones.)

2024: Anthony, Mayer, Teel, Campbell, Bleis, Perales, Fitts, Cespedes, Arias, Sandlin, Meidroth

2006: Lester, Pedey, Jake, Papelbon, Buch, Doubront, Bard, B Moss, D Murphy, Lowrie, Mrerdith, Delcarmen

2013: Betts, Bogey, JBJ, Barnes, Vaz, Iggy, Workman, Margot

2016: Devers, Moncada, Beni, Espinoza, Kopech, Dalbec

How about looking at a 4 year windows of prospects? We could add Houck, Whitlock, Duran, Crawford, Wink, bello, Wong, casas, Abreu, rafaela, Slaten and others to this group. 

Other time periods could add some awesome names, too.

 

The problem with this post is you're taking todays top 10(ish) and then just taking the top prospects in other years. 

in 2013 Betts was ranked 10th and Vasz 13th? 

The guy who is ranked 23rd in our system right now could be the future #1 and a perennial all star for all we know.  You almost have to consider perceived value at that time because that's the value they had at that point.  Moncada wasn't a great prospect in hindsight but the reality was he gave us an ACE so that was his value. 

It's a tough experiment either way, but this is easily among one of the strongest systems the Sox have ever had maybe the best.  Now, may some of these top guys disappoint? perhaps.

[mvp 78]

We also know that the 12 '06 guys listed all made the bigs. We have no clue what the long term outlook is for the '24 guys yet. Most likely there will be some flameouts. 

The 7th ranked prospect in midseason of '06 was Edgar Martinez. He was out of pro ball after '08. 

The September rankings included Kris Johnson 8th and Jason Place 9th. At least Johnson got a cup of coffee. Place never even made it to AAA. 

[Larry Cook]

I am very excited about the second group of 4 prospects. Montgomery, Airas, cespedes and Garcia 

they all have a chance to be major contributors at the major league level 

[mvp 78]

Brooks Brannon AFL:

2nd in EV90!

11th in max EV

10th worst contact %

8th worst chase %

5th highest swing %

[moonslav59]

Yes, many times a not top 10 or 20 prospect ends up doing better or much better than many listed above him.

We can also look at the highly rated farm DD inherited, and ended up trading many away. We saw how most came up short, while others like Devers ended up doing very well. Others did okay. Several of DD's prospects, picked lower on the board ended up surprising us.

soxprospects.com Fall 2015

1. Moncada (Sale trade)

2. Devers (on roster)

3. Espinoza (PomPom trade)

4. Margot (Kimbrel trade)

5. Benintendi (traded by Bloom for Wink & others)

6. Guerra (kimbrel trade)

7. Kopech (Sale trade)

8. Johnson (DFA'd 2020)

9. Sam Travis (traded by Bloom for Jeffery Springs)

10. D Marrero (Josh Taylor trade)

11. Chavis (traded by Bloom for Austin Davis)

12. Luis Ax Basabe (Sale trade)

13. Logan Allen (Kimbrel trade)

14. Trey Ball (never got past AA)

15. Wendell Rijo (Aaron Wilkerson trade)

16. Nick Longhi (never got past AAA)

17. Marco Hernandez (271 career PAs in MLB)

18. Mauricio Dubon (Thornburg trade)

19. Pat Light (Abad trade)

20. Stankiewicz (AAA to Mexican League)

Others not in top 20 in 2015: Beeks, Raudes, Chatham, W Jerez (not a complete list)

[sk7326]

Ultimately, makeup and medicals end up driving so much of prospect fortunes and that is stuff we just don't know.  What we can observe is performance/age/level norms and that is a pretty good guide historically.

I mean, Kristian Campbell being named Keith Law's MLB Prospect of the Year is obvious - raked across 3 levels while not striking out.  That'll do it every time.  

But Franklin Arias made his honorable mentions and others ... but there the sign is putting up acceptable results at Salem as an 18 year old.  It's still really early - but that is exciting to bet on. 

[mvp 78]

3 hours ago, sk7326 said:

Ultimately, makeup and medicals end up driving so much of prospect fortunes and that is stuff we just don't know.  What we can observe is performance/age/level norms and that is a pretty good guide historically.

I mean, Kristian Campbell being named Keith Law's MLB Prospect of the Year is obvious - raked across 3 levels while not striking out.  That'll do it every time.  

But Franklin Arias made his honorable mentions and others ... but there the sign is putting up acceptable results at Salem as an 18 year old.  It's still really early - but that is exciting to bet on. 

Scouts that saw him in FCL raved. Scouts that saw him in Salem weren't overly impressed. He's in the honorable mentions strictly because of his FCL numbers. 

[sk7326]

1 hour ago, mvp 78 said:

Scouts that saw him in FCL raved. Scouts that saw him in Salem weren't overly impressed. He's in the honorable mentions strictly because of his FCL numbers. 

Will have to see about next year ... but an 18 year old just being not-terrible at Salem does say a lot good.  It is worth remembering Devers was not putitng up amazing numbers in Single-A, while being ridiculously young for the level.  

[sk7326]

As far as this class?

1. Anthony and Campbell have done everything developmentally you would associate with future high end regulars.  Those are the dudes you have to bet on.

2. Mayer has done a lot, but has also been hurt a lot.  It's just what it is.  Puts him a half step behind in terms of betting odds, though the payoff might be higher.

3. Teel got to AAA fast.  But catcher is catcher.  I think he might have the highest floor of the Top 4 - but he also might not be an All Star.

4. Braden Montgomery is still fairly raw despite an excellent season in college.  So there is still a lot there.  

This class is strong in terms of ceiling, but the 06 class' depth and impact is hard to match.  I mean, the guys taken there were among the backbones to two titles.  Shop around, you can't beat that.  

[Soxlover]

I think the fact that our top 4-5 prospects look so good, the next tier is being under-rated.

[Larry Cook]

On 11/22/2024 at 3:06 PM, Soxlover said:

I think the fact that our top 4-5 prospects look so good, the next tier is being under-rated.

I believe this 100 percent. 
 

if our top 4 were Montgomery, cespedes. Arias, and Garcia that would be a very strong group! 

[mvp 78]

SoxProspects updated their year end rankings: 

Notable Risers
Kristian Campbell from 3 to 2
Hunter Dobbins from 18 to 11
Connelly Early from 25 to 17
Luis Guerrero from 27 to 21
Nelly Taylor from 37 to 31
Brooks Brannon from 50 to 43
Starlyn Nunez from 55 to 46
Tyler Uberstine from unranked to 50

Notable Fallers
Allan Castro from 16 to 21
Zach Penrod from 19 to 24
Mickey Gasper from 45 to 51
Bryan Mata from 51 to 56

[Larry Cook]

I think all 4 of the big 4 get minor league invites.
 I am excited to see Campbell and Grissom battle for the starting 2nd base job. 
it will be very nice to see both Garcia brothers back in action this year. 
where does Montgomery start the year? Greenville? 

[mvp 78]

28 minutes ago, Larry Cook said:

I think all 4 of the big 4 get minor league invites.
 I am excited to see Campbell and Grissom battle for the starting 2nd base job. 
it will be very nice to see both Garcia brothers back in action this year. 
where does Montgomery start the year? Greenville? 

Monty should start in Greenville, which is where the college bats that he was drafted with went to at the end of last year. 

[Larry Cook]

2 hours ago, mvp 78 said:

Monty should start in Greenville, which is where the college bats that he was drafted with went to at the end of last year. 

I think that if Montgomery can cut down on the swing and miss and get the contact rate up. He can be in Worcester by the end of the year