2024 Prospects

[mvp 78]

23 minutes ago, Larry Cook said:

Where is fulmer listed 

He's not getting DFA'd. 

[mvp 78]

Not a fan of MLB Pipeline, but they have 3 Sox players currently ranked in the top 10. 

Anthony 3, Mayer 7, Campbell 10

 

[moonslav59]

Draft Odds:

1. Rockies (61-101): 22.45%
2. Marlins (62-100): 22.45%
3. Angels (63-99): 17.96%
4. Nationals (71-91): 10.2%
5. Blue Jays (74-88): 7.48%
6. Pirates (76-86): 5.31%
7. Reds (77-85): 3.67%
8. Rangers (78-84): 2.45%
9. Giants (80-82): 1.9%
10. White Sox (41-121): Ineligible
11. A’s (69-93): Ineligible
12. Rays (80-82): 1.5%
13. Red Sox (81-81): 1.22%

[moonslav59]

On 10/3/2024 at 1:58 PM, Larry Cook said:

Where is fulmer listed 

Soxprospects has him listed as Rule 5. He will certainly be added to the 40 before that.

On 10/3/2024 at 1:58 PM, Larry Cook said:

Where is fulmer listed 

 

[Larry Cook]

4 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

Draft Odds:

1. Rockies (61-101): 22.45%
2. Marlins (62-100): 22.45%
3. Angels (63-99): 17.96%
4. Nationals (71-91): 10.2%
5. Blue Jays (74-88): 7.48%
6. Pirates (76-86): 5.31%
7. Reds (77-85): 3.67%
8. Rangers (78-84): 2.45%
9. Giants (80-82): 1.9%
10. White Sox (41-121): Ineligible
11. A’s (69-93): Ineligible
12. Rays (80-82): 1.5%
13. Red Sox (81-81): 1.22%

Are we 1 percenters ?????

[moonslav59]

2 hours ago, Larry Cook said:

Are we 1 percenters ?????

Wonder what percent chance we get the 2nd pick.

[Larry Cook]

16 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

Wonder what percent chance we get the 2nd pick.

If we got any of the following: the 2025 draft is going to be incredible :

OF - jace laviolette of Texas a&m

OF - cam cannevella of Clemson 

pitcher - Jamie Arnold of FSU

 

 

[moonslav59]

Bleacher Report Mock Draft 1.0...

1. SS Ethan Holliday (HS)

2. OF Jace LaViolette  (TX A&M)

3. OF Cam Cannarella (Clemson)

4. SS Brady Ebel (HS)

5. C Caden Bodine- Coastal Carolina

6. RHP Tyler Bremmer- UC Santa Barbara

7. OF Ethan Petry- So Carolina

8. OF Devin Taylor- Indiana

9. LHP Jamie Arnold- Fla St

10. 3B Xavier Neyens - HS

11. SS Wehlwa Aloy- Arkansas

12.RHP Seth Hernandez HS

13. 3B Trent Caraway Ore St

14. SS Coy James HS

15. OF Dean Moss IMG Academy

16. RHP Matt Scott - Stanford

17. OF Gavin Turley Ore St

18. RHP Cam Leiter Fla St

19. RHP Josh Hammond- Wesleyan Christian Academy

20. OF Ty Peeples- HS

 

[Larry Cook]

3 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

Bleacher Report Mock Draft 1.0...

1. SS Ethan Holliday (HS)

2. OF Jace LaViolette  (TX A&M)

3. OF Cam Cannarella (Clemson)

4. SS Brady Ebel (HS)

5. C Caden Bodine- Coastal Carolina

6. RHP Tyler Bremmer- UC Santa Barbara

7. OF Ethan Petry- So Carolina

8. OF Devin Taylor- Indiana

9. LHP Jamie Arnold- Fla St

10. 3B Xavier Neyens - HS

11. SS Wehlwa Aloy- Arkansas

12.RHP Seth Hernandez HS

13. 3B Trent Caraway Ore St

14. SS Coy James HS

15. OF Dean Moss IMG Academy

16. RHP Matt Scott - Stanford

17. OF Gavin Turley Ore St

18. RHP Cam Leiter Fla St

19. RHP Josh Hammond- Wesleyan Christian Academy

20. OF Ty Peeples- HS

 

I have not seen Bremmer pitch yet, but Arnold is left handed and has decent stuff 

[moonslav59]

There has been a lot of talk about the promising farm we have, right now, despite the lack of sure-fire pitchers. This aspect has been a weak area in the Sox pipeline since the days of Letser, Buchholz, Masterson and others. Somehow, we made do, often by trading everyday players and all types of prospects for top pitching, from Pedro to Schilling to Beckett and Sale.

This is not a complete list of significant farm infusions since the Theo days, but I do think it shows we are seeing a trend towards more helpful homegrown players and perhaps more importantly pitchers. I'm not sure we can ever match the top 3 farmhands left for Ben: Betts, Bogey & JBJ, and we had some stretches of very little help, along the way.

Here is my list:

2015: Margot (traded with others for Kimbrel) [ERod from BAL system acquired by Miller trade.]

2016: Moncada (traded with Kopech & others for Sale) Beni (later traded for Wink) Dubon (traded for Thornburg) Espinoza (trade for Pomeranz)

2017: Devers

2018: Beeks (traded for Nate) Buttrey (traded for Kinsler) Espinal (traded for Pearce)

2020: Houck (first big impact in '24) Dalbec (brief impact '20-'21)

2021: Duran (1st impact '23) [Whitlock was a NYY farm product acquired from Rule 5. Wong from LAD system made 1st impact in '23]

2022: Casas (1st impact '23) Bello (1st impact '23) Crawford ('23) [Winckowski was a product of the KCR  farm, but did see a lot of time in the BOS system.]

2023: Rafaela (2024) [Abreu was a product of the HOU farm, acquired by trade. DHam from MIL system made impact in '24.]

2024: [Slaten was a product of the TEX system acquired by trade]

What jumps out at me is the long gap between the Devers call up and when Houck, Duran and Casas started to make an impact in 2023. Secondly, is the fact that Houck, Bello, Crawford and to some extent Wink and Slaten show a marked improvement of pitching impacts from previous years.

I won't get into the long list of current prospects that look very promising, but it does seem like a corner has already been turned.

 

[Larry Cook]

I think this year’s rule 5 draft will have some reliever’s that bres-slow will be creative in going after 

[moonslav59]

3 hours ago, Larry Cook said:

I think this year’s rule 5 draft will have some reliever’s that bres-slow will be creative in going after 

We've been losing a lot of players to Rule 5, recently, but none have seemed to burn us, just yet.

2 of 10 players taken in 2023 were Sox (Drohan & Fernandez) We traded for Slaten, who was taken by the Mets.

In 2022, Ward was taken first, Politi 9th & Song 11th (3 out of 15)

That's 5 Sox prospects out of 25, in the past 2 dratfs, combined.

[moonslav59]

Depending on who we protect, here are some possible prospects that could be drafted, plus some notable names on the list:

Hunter Dobbins, Michael Fulmer (almost certainly will be protected)

Jhostynxon Garcia (I'd be safe and protect him.)

Yordanny Monegro (22nd ranked on soxprospects,com and projected AA in '25)

Alan Castro (16th ranked on sp's. & projected AA in '25)

Notables: Grant Gambrell (part of Beni-Wink trade,) Blaze Jordan (3rd rd pick in '20 & 28th ranked), Bryan Gonzalez (20 HRs in 327 ABs,) Nathan Hickey, CJ Liu, Alex Binelas (from Renroe-JBJ trade,) Noah Song, Chrisopher Troye

[Hugh2]

On 10/5/2024 at 3:11 PM, Larry Cook said:

If we got any of the following: the 2025 draft is going to be incredible :

OF - jace laviolette of Texas a&m

OF - cam cannevella of Clemson 

pitcher - Jamie Arnold of FSU

 

 

Jud Fabian was once considered a consensus top ten pick before heading into his first draft year

[mvp 78]

12 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

We've been losing a lot of players to Rule 5, recently, but none have seemed to burn us, just yet.

2 of 10 players taken in 2023 were Sox (Drohan & Fernandez) We traded for Slaten, who was taken by the Mets.

In 2022, Ward was taken first, Politi 9th & Song 11th (3 out of 15)

That's 5 Sox prospects out of 25, in the past 2 dratfs, combined.

Fernandez looked pretty good in the STL pen.

[mvp 78]

11 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

Depending on who we protect, here are some possible prospects that could be drafted, plus some notable names on the list:

Hunter Dobbins, Michael Fulmer (almost certainly will be protected)

Jhostynxon Garcia (I'd be safe and protect him.)

Yordanny Monegro (22nd ranked on soxprospects,com and projected AA in '25)

Alan Castro (16th ranked on sp's. & projected AA in '25)

Notables: Grant Gambrell (part of Beni-Wink trade,) Blaze Jordan (3rd rd pick in '20 & 28th ranked), Bryan Gonzalez (20 HRs in 327 ABs,) Nathan Hickey, CJ Liu, Alex Binelas (from Renroe-JBJ trade,) Noah Song, Chrisopher Troye

There's a chance Fulmer is NOT protected depending on how his health is looking. Sox would know more info on that that people outside the org. 

Monegro would not be a great fit for a pen role and would probably get walloped in MLB. I'm leaning towards him not being protected.

I think Dobbins is for sure protected. I'm not sure about Garcia. He may be a year away. Maybe a team wants to stash him? He didn't really set the world on fire in AA. 

[moonslav59]

17 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

Fernandez looked pretty good in the STL pen.

I almost mentioned that, and we sure could have used 66 IP at a 3.35 FIP, but I'm not sure I'd say he " burned" us. He still had a 1.35 WHIP, fueled by his 4.3 BB/9 rate. Still, lots of Ks and few HRs is why his FIP was decent.

[moonslav59]

13 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

There's a chance Fulmer is NOT protected depending on how his health is looking. Sox would know more info on that that people outside the org. 

Monegro would not be a great fit for a pen role and would probably get walloped in MLB. I'm leaning towards him not being protected.

I think Dobbins is for sure protected. I'm not sure about Garcia. He may be a year away. Maybe a team wants to stash him? He didn't really set the world on fire in AA. 

Agree on all of this, but I'd hate to lose Monegro or Jh Garcia.

JhG only played 30 games in AA, and he still hit over .700. That's not too bad for someone who was in the FCL in '22 and A- to start '24. I'd probably be safe and protect JhG.

I think Fulmer is supposed to be ready by opening day, but then again, Hendriks was August 1st 2024.

[Larry Cook]

And how many guys currently on our 40 man roster are dead weight?? 

[mvp 78]

2 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

I almost mentioned that, and we sure could have used 66 IP at a 3.35 FIP, but I'm not sure I'd say he " burned" us. He still had a 1.35 WHIP, fueled by his 4.3 BB/9 rate. Still, lots of Ks and few HRs is why his FIP was decent.

He always had an issue with BB's and an issue with injuries. That he stayed healthy was the big turnaround for him.

[mvp 78]

 

[Larry Cook]

Big 4 hitters - Anthony, Mayer, Campbell, teel 

Medium 4 hitters - Montgomery, Garcia, arais, cespedes 

Small 4 pitchers - Valera, monegro, fitts, dobbins 

we are so lopsided in the minor leagues 

 

[moonslav59]

1 hour ago, Larry Cook said:

Big 4 hitters - Anthony, Mayer, Campbell, teel 

Medium 4 hitters - Montgomery, Garcia, arais, cespedes 

Small 4 pitchers - Valera, monegro, fitts, dobbins 

we are so lopsided in the minor leagues 

 

No Medium Perales, Sandlin, Fitts, Tolle?

[Larry Cook]

19 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

No Medium Perales, Sandlin, Fitts, Tolle?

Fitts is in my small list 

perales is coming off ucl replacement 

I am not as high on Sandlin as everybody else. He throws a lot of meat balls 

tolle - I saw at tcu but who knows how that translates to pro ball 

[moonslav59]

11 minutes ago, Larry Cook said:

Fitts is in my small list 

perales is coming off ucl replacement 

I am not as high on Sandlin as everybody else. He throws a lot of meat balls 

tolle - I saw at tcu but who knows how that translates to pro ball 

Yes, I saw you had Fitts on your "small list," but he seemed to look good enough to make a medium category. Perales won't stay injured forever. Maybe saying he is on the "small" list for 2025 is okay, but not for 2026, IMO.

Priester is no longer a prospects, but he might as well be one. He's maybe borderline small-medium.

Dobbins gets little love, and I get why, but he keeps doing well.

I'm not gah gah over our farm pitchers, but I think it looks better than 5-10 years ago, and there are quite a few pitchers who have some real promise, even if the promise is rather a long shot or too far away to get excited about.

Perales, Fitts, Tolle, Sandlin

Dobbins, E Rodriguez, Monegro, Cason, Valera

Early, Mullins, Paez, Wikelman, D Reyes, Wehunt, Neely, Bastardo

Dean, Clarke, Tygart, Carlson, Ingrassia, Gambrell, Mata

I know I sound two-faced to be touting quantity, when I keep talking about need quality not quantity and mediocrity gets us nowhere, but when it comes to prospects, having so many will likely lead to someone doing way better than anyone expected.

Nobody thought all that much about Houck, Bello, Crawford and Whitlock, but they all did better than most thought they'd be.

 

[Larry Cook]

On 10/14/2024 at 7:36 PM, moonslav59 said:

Yes, I saw you had Fitts on your "small list," but he seemed to look good enough to make a medium category. Perales won't stay injured forever. Maybe saying he is on the "small" list for 2025 is okay, but not for 2026, IMO.

Priester is no longer a prospects, but he might as well be one. He's maybe borderline small-medium.

Dobbins gets little love, and I get why, but he keeps doing well.

I'm not gah gah over our farm pitchers, but I think it looks better than 5-10 years ago, and there are quite a few pitchers who have some real promise, even if the promise is rather a long shot or too far away to get excited about.

Perales, Fitts, Tolle, Sandlin

Dobbins, E Rodriguez, Monegro, Cason, Valera

Early, Mullins, Paez, Wikelman, D Reyes, Wehunt, Neely, Bastardo

Dean, Clarke, Tygart, Carlson, Ingrassia, Gambrell, Mata

I know I sound two-faced to be touting quantity, when I keep talking about need quality not quantity and mediocrity gets us nowhere, but when it comes to prospects, having so many will likely lead to someone doing way better than anyone expected.

Nobody thought all that much about Houck, Bello, Crawford and Whitlock, but they all did better than most thought they'd be.

 

Monegro is hard to figure! I watch him and I see a guy with stuff that should have him throwing batting practice, but then he gets in the game and somehow he just gets batters out!!!!

I have no idea how he does it!!! 

[moonslav59]

16 minutes ago, Larry Cook said:

Monegro is hard to figure! I watch him and I see a guy with stuff that should have him throwing batting practice, but then he gets in the game and somehow he just gets batters out!!!!

I have no idea how he does it!!! 

I'm terrible with knowing how good our pitching prospects will turn out. I hardly ever see them live, and go mostly by scouting reports and stats, so that's one reason.

I know we lack any great hopes, except maybe Perales, but I think we might have a few more Houck's, Bello's or Crawford's up our sleaves.

[Larry Cook]

23 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

I'm terrible with knowing how good our pitching prospects will turn out. I hardly ever see them live, and go mostly by scouting reports and stats, so that's one reason.

I know we lack any great hopes, except maybe Perales, but I think we might have a few more Houck's, Bello's or Crawford's up our sleaves.

The crazy thing is that winkleman has amazing stuff in the system!!!  But no command and control whatsoever!!!!  

[moonslav59]

33 minutes ago, Larry Cook said:

The crazy thing is that winkleman has amazing stuff in the system!!!  But no command and control whatsoever!!!!  

That's why it's not all about having nasty stuff. 

DHern was super hard to hit.

Guys with great control or K:BB ratios, sometimes don't have nasty enough stuff. Brandon Walter once had a 13:1 K:BB ratio. Pooof.

[mvp 78]

Was listening to the newest SoxProspects podcast with Red Sox Player Development Director Brian Abraham and Brian said "if a player reaches AA it gives you a better idea if they are a suspect or a prospect." I believe my car airbags went off and sent me to TalkSox Valhalla.