2024 Prospects

[moonslav59]

soxprospects.com posted their final 2024 rankings: no big surprises.

Anthony remains #1. Campbell went from #22 in April to #2. Mayer went from 3 to 2, more out of Campbell's shocking success, than anything bad he did. Teel from 3 to 4, also to make way for KC.

Braden Montgomery at #5 surprises nobody. Perales remained at #6, despite the major injury. Arias jumped about as far as Campbell did from April (#25>#7.) Chase Meidroth keeps creeping up (#14> #11 summer> #8, now.)

Bleis fell from 5 to 9 and Cespedes from 6 to 10, but both can still move back up, next year. Dobbins jumped up, a lot this year: 24>21>11. Fitts comes in at 12th, which is a drop from 9 and 8, earlier in the season. Tolle grabs the 13th slot with Sandlin and Jh Garcia finishing up the top 15.

Mikey Romero jumped from 27 to 16th, thanks to a healthy season, and Early is 17th. I guess my big surprises is Wikelman at #18. I'd have him near #30. Jo Garcia is 19th and Cason is 20th.

21. Guerrero, 22. Castro, 23. Valera, 24. Penrod, 25. E Rodriguez, 26. Monegro, 27. D Reyes, 28. Paez, 29. Mullins, 30. Ju Gonzales.

Prospects that graduated, this year: Sogard, Booser, Slaten, DHam, Abreu & Rafaela. 2023: Casas, Kelly, Murphy, Valdez & Bernardino.

Prospects who dropped out of the top 30 in April: 13> 35 Zanetello, 16> 32 Jordan, 17> 49 Hickey, 26>45,  A Anderson, 29> 39 Bastardo

Other draftees: 36 Neely, 37 Clarke, 38 Tygart, 40 Ehrhard. 52 Turner

 

 

[Bellhorn04]

I have to ask Brock if they can get a better picture of Kyle Teel up on the front page.  He looks like Gomer Pyle in that picture.

[moonslav59]

My end of season rankings:

1. Anthony

2. Campbell

3. Mayer

4. Teel

5. Montgomery

6. Arias

7. Perales

8. Cespedes

9. Bleis

10. Meidroth

11. Jh Garcia

12. Fitts

13. Sandlin

14. Dobbins

15. Tolle

16. Jo Garcia

17. Romero

18. Cason

19. Early

20. Valera

21. E Rod

22. Monegro

23. D Reyes

24. Paez

25. Mullins

26. Wehunt

27. Riemer

28. Ingrassia

29. Neely

30. Clarke

31. Guerrero

32. Ju Gonzales

33. Taylor

34. Castro

35.  Penrod, & Wikelman

 

[Larry Cook]

21 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

soxprospects.com posted their final 2024 rankings: no big surprises.

Anthony remains #1. Campbell went from #22 in April to #2. Mayer went from 3 to 2, more out of Campbell's shocking success, than anything bad he did. Teel from 3 to 4, also to make way for KC.

Braden Montgomery at #5 surprises nobody. Perales remained at #6, despite the major injury. Arias jumped about as far as Campbell did from April (#25>#7.) Chase Meidroth keeps creeping up (#14> #11 summer> #8, now.)

Bleis fell from 5 to 9 and Cespedes from 6 to 10, but both can still move back up, next year. Dobbins jumped up, a lot this year: 24>21>11. Fitts comes in at 12th, which is a drop from 9 and 8, earlier in the season. Tolle grabs the 13th slot with Sandlin and Jh Garcia finishing up the top 15.

Mikey Romero jumped from 27 to 16th, thanks to a healthy season, and Early is 17th. I guess my big surprises is Wikelman at #18. I'd have him near #30. Jo Garcia is 19th and Cason is 20th.

21. Guerrero, 22. Castro, 23. Valera, 24. Penrod, 25. E Rodriguez, 26. Monegro, 27. D Reyes, 28. Paez, 29. Mullins, 30. Ju Gonzales.

Prospects that graduated, this year: Sogard, Booser, Slaten, DHam, Abreu & Rafaela. 2023: Casas, Kelly, Murphy, Valdez & Bernardino.

Prospects who dropped out of the top 30 in April: 13> 35 Zanetello, 16> 32 Jordan, 17> 49 Hickey, 26>45,  A Anderson, 29> 39 Bastardo

Other draftees: 36 Neely, 37 Clarke, 38 Tygart, 40 Ehrhard. 52 Turner

 

 

I have seen tolle and sandlin pitch. I do not know how they made the top 60! 
tolle keeps everything on the same plane! Perfect guy to get killed second and third time through the lineup! Maybe Bailey teaches him how to change eye level while still throwing strikes 

Sandlin serves up more meatballs than Olive Garden !!  Maybe if they fix the over abundance of meatballs, the rest of his stuff looks decent enough 

of the 2024 pitchers, Clarke might be worth watching in 2025. 

[moonslav59]

10 hours ago, Larry Cook said:

I have seen tolle and sandlin pitch. I do not know how they made the top 60! 
tolle keeps everything on the same plane! Perfect guy to get killed second and third time through the lineup! Maybe Bailey teaches him how to change eye level while still throwing strikes 

Sandlin serves up more meatballs than Olive Garden !!  Maybe if they fix the over abundance of meatballs, the rest of his stuff looks decent enough 

of the 2024 pitchers, Clarke might be worth watching in 2025. 

I'm not doubting you personal observations, but somebody must like a lot of what they have seen from Sandlin and Tolle. Of course, both will need to improve to advance to the bigs, but the same can be said about almost every good pitching prospect.

I may sound hypocritical, since with pitching I have always been a strong advocate of quality over quantity as a foundational strategy, but I do think the sheer quantity of decent looking pitchers on the farm, who have some level of "quality" and room for growth makes for an interesting situation. We don't need all to succeed. Hell, 2 out of 3 could suck, and we might still end up with a decent 7-10 guys, where 2-3 end up doing very well and 2-3 fill s key role on the big club.

Is it that hard to imagine 4-6 from this group making a difference, someday?

6. Perales

Grad Priester, 12 Fitts, 11 Dobbins, 13 Tolle, 14 Sandlin

21. Guerrero, 20. Cason, 18 Wikelman, 23, Valera, 24 Penrod, 25 ERod, 26 Monegro

8 Paez, 29 Mullins, 33 Wehunt, 39 Bastardo, 41 Dean, 42 Carlson , 57 I Coffey, 58 Rogers

27 Reyes, 36 Neely, 37 Clarke, 38 Tygart, 44 Ingrassia, 60 Ehrlicher

Long shots: Mata, Gambrell, G Jackson,  Uberstine

There is over 30 pitchers on this list. We need maybe 10-15% to make an impact.

 

[Larry Cook]

On 11/27/2024 at 12:01 PM, moonslav59 said:

I'm not doubting you personal observations, but somebody must like a lot of what they have seen from Sandlin and Tolle. Of course, both will need to improve to advance to the bigs, but the same can be said about almost every good pitching prospect.

I may sound hypocritical, since with pitching I have always been a strong advocate of quality over quantity as a foundational strategy, but I do think the sheer quantity of decent looking pitchers on the farm, who have some level of "quality" and room for growth makes for an interesting situation. We don't need all to succeed. Hell, 2 out of 3 could suck, and we might still end up with a decent 7-10 guys, where 2-3 end up doing very well and 2-3 fill s key role on the big club.

Is it that hard to imagine 4-6 from this group making a difference, someday?

6. Perales

Grad Priester, 12 Fitts, 11 Dobbins, 13 Tolle, 14 Sandlin

21. Guerrero, 20. Cason, 18 Wikelman, 23, Valera, 24 Penrod, 25 ERod, 26 Monegro

8 Paez, 29 Mullins, 33 Wehunt, 39 Bastardo, 41 Dean, 42 Carlson , 57 I Coffey, 58 Rogers

27 Reyes, 36 Neely, 37 Clarke, 38 Tygart, 44 Ingrassia, 60 Ehrlicher

Long shots: Mata, Gambrell, G Jackson,  Uberstine

There is over 30 pitchers on this list. We need maybe 10-15% to make an impact.

 

I watched ingrassia pitch and I was impressed with the stuff! I really hope he develops into the quality you mention above! 

[moonslav59]

23 hours ago, Larry Cook said:

I watched ingrassia pitch and I was impressed with the stuff! I really hope he develops into the quality you mention above! 

I think we have several pitchers like him that we just have not seen pitch. 

Also, watching someone pitch one to two times is not enough to get a true read. Somedays, even the best of the best look awful.

Again, I'm a quality over quantity kinda guy, but our quantity has some decent quality sprinkled in, here and there. We have close to 30 pitchers with some sort of highlight. If 1/6th make a decent jump, that's 5. If another 1/6th make some sort of gain, maybe we have 5 more. Another sixth  or third might keep the hope alive for a jump in 2027.

A jump from Priester (not a prospect, but I'm counting him) Fitts, Dobbins, Guerrero, or even Sandlin or Early could give us help by 2025 or 2026. It would be nice to have a few healthy Perales's, but it is what it is.

 

[Larry Cook]

2 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

I think we have several pitchers like him that we just have not seen pitch. 

Also, watching someone pitch one to two times is not enough to get a true read. Somedays, even the best of the best look awful.

Again, I'm a quality over quantity kinda guy, but our quantity has some decent quality sprinkled in, here and there. We have close to 30 pitchers with some sort of highlight. If 1/6th make a decent jump, that's 5. If another 1/6th make some sort of gain, maybe we have 5 more. Another sixth  or third might keep the hope alive for a jump in 2027.

A jump from Priester (not a prospect, but I'm counting him) Fitts, Dobbins, Guerrero, or even Sandlin or Early could give us help by 2025 or 2026. It would be nice to have a few healthy Perales's, but it is what it is.

 

I agree! I did only see him pitch once. The stuff was decent and with improved command and control, he could be someone to pay attention to! 
that is the problem with going to see live baseball. You work out your schedule to get to the stadium on a certain date, but you never know who is going to be pitching or even worse, you get a bullpen game!!!! 

[moonslav59]

I'm more of a stats driven guy than personal observations and scouting reports. I've been wrong on a lot of pitching prospects, so I do not pretend to know more than anyone else. soxprospects.com seems to be pretty conservative on projecting our pitching prospects ceilings.

A look at some OPS Against numbers encourages me.

.411 Valera (63 IP w FCL + Salem)

.505 Y Ruiz (46 IP w DSL)

.537 Ingrassia (58 w Salem)

.552 Dean (80 w Salem + GRE) He gets very little love.

.580 E R-C (90 SAL + GRE)

.596 Monegro (76 FCL + GRE)

.601 Kirwin (69 SAL)

.597 Wehunt (97 w 3 teams)

.625 Cohen (98 SAL)

.651 Sansone (72 SAL)

.674 Mullins (89 GRE)

.675 Paez (97 SAL-GRE)

.698 Rogers (83 GRE)

True, none of these guys are above A ball, and none had over 100 IP but still...

Smaller sample sizes:

.341 D Reyes (17 IP), .385 O Sanchez (17), .491 Colina (30), .503 Carta (31), .542 Go, .546 Rivera (30), .564 Galvan (33)nzalez (22)

Above A Ball:

.590 Bonnin (42 GRE-POR)

.611 Dobbins (126 IP POR-WOO)

.619 Wikelman (84 POR)

.622 Kwiatkowski (79 POR-WOO)

.631 Perales (34 GRE-POR)

.632 Early (104 GRE-POR)

.651 Guerrero (54 WOO)

.654 Penrod (62 POR-WOO)

.670 I Coffey (114 POR)

.672 Priester (38 WOO)

.686 Bastardo (45 POR)

 

[moonslav59]

Here are some comments from soxprospects.com on our top pitching prospects:

6. Perales: potential mid rotation starter w ceiling as a #2. Could be high leverage RP'er with premium bat-miss ability.

11. Dobbins: potential depth starter or multi innings RP. Ceiling is mid rotation SP, Plus velocity w wide ranging arsenal.

12. Fitts: fringe back-end SP or multi IP RP. Ceiling of 4th SP. Has command & control. Needs a 3rd pitch.

13. Tolle: wide range of outcomes. Could have untapped potential due to late focus on pitching.

14. Sandlin: Potential swingman. Ceiling mid rotation SP. Stuff ticked up in '24.

17. Early: depth SP w ceiling as 4th SP. Nice change up.

18. Wikelman: up & down swingman. Ceiling as leverage RP. Has 4 pitches.

20. Cason: more potential as pitcher. Standout athleticism.

21. Guerrero: middle innings RP. Ceiling as leverage RP.

23. Valera: Raw arm with need for 3rd pitch,

24. Penrod: ceiling as mid RP. Premium raw stuff.

25. E Rod: Ceiling as backend SP. 4 pitch mix, but no go-to pitch.

26. Monegro: Ceiling as solid mid inning RP.

27. D Reyes: high upside arm. Throws strikes.

28. Paez: ceiling back end SP. Strong control & command w advanced secondary offerings, Lacks strong FB.

29. Mullins: Ceiling as 7th inning RP, Premium bat-missing skills but lacks control.

33. Wehunt, 36, Neely, 37. Clarke, 38. Tygart, 39. Bastardo, 41. Dean, 42. Carlson, 44, Ingrassia

[mvp 78]

On 11/27/2024 at 1:14 AM, Larry Cook said:

I have seen tolle and sandlin pitch. I do not know how they made the top 60! 
tolle keeps everything on the same plane! Perfect guy to get killed second and third time through the lineup! Maybe Bailey teaches him how to change eye level while still throwing strikes 

Sandlin serves up more meatballs than Olive Garden !!  Maybe if they fix the over abundance of meatballs, the rest of his stuff looks decent enough 

of the 2024 pitchers, Clarke might be worth watching in 2025. 

When did you see Tolle pitch? 

[moonslav59]

Top Sox Prospects in AAA (ML Ready or near ML Ready)

1. Anthony CF/RF

2. Campbell 2B/OF/3B

3. Mayer SS (2B/3B)

4. Teel C

8. Meidroth 3B (2B/SS/1B)

11. Dobbins SP

12. Fitts SP

21. Guerrero RP

24. Penrod RP

(47 Gambrell SP)

I could see 5-6 of these guys given a significant look in 2025.

[mvp 78]

21 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

Top Sox Prospects in AAA (ML Ready or near ML Ready)

1. Anthony CF/RF

2. Campbell 2B/OF/3B

3. Mayer SS (2B/3B)

4. Teel C

8. Meidroth 3B (2B/SS/1B)

11. Dobbins SP

12. Fitts SP

21. Guerrero RP

24. Penrod RP

(47 Gambrell SP)

I could see 5-6 of these guys given a significant look in 2025.

It's Wikelman's final option year. Maybe he goes to the pen and is pushed to BOS? More likely he goes the Mata route in the offseason and is brought back on a MiLB deal. Mata does have an outside shot of making the big club at some point this year too. Maybe Kwiatkowski gets a cup of coffee? 

[moonslav59]

9 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

It's Wikelman's final option year. Maybe he goes to the pen and is pushed to BOS? More likely he goes the Mata route in the offseason and is brought back on a MiLB deal. Mata does have an outside shot of making the big club at some point this year too. Maybe Kwiatkowski gets a cup of coffee? 

I forgot about K. Good call.

I've all but given up on Wikelman, although his OPS Against was decent, this year. I think 2025 is a make or break year for him, but I said that about Mata, last winter. My guess is he end up like Mata- on the farm but not the 40. Unlike Mata, he might get snagged off waivers. Depends on how he looks, this year.

Soxprospects.com has him as the closer for Portland, to open 2025. If he never gets promoted to AAA, that may be telling.

Speaking of soxprospects.com, they still project us adding 2 SP'er (I'm guessing one) and a closer (I'm guessing someone like Hoffman or Holmes.) If we just add two pitchers, the 13 pitchers on the 26 might be: Houck, ___, Bello, Gio, Crawford, ___, Chapman, Slaten, Hendriks, Whitlock, Wink, Guerrero & Wilson.

That would leave a pretty decent looking AAA pitching staff:

Criswell, Priester, Fitts, Dobbins, Gambrell/Drohan

Penrod, Kelly, Bernardino, Booser, Weissert, I Campbell, Fulmer, Kwiatkowski/Mata/ Shugart/ Mills/ Cellucci

AA, not so bad either: I Coffey, Early, Wehunt, Mullins, Monegro... Sandlin, Wikelman, Hoppe, Troye, Uberstine, Wenn, Sena, Liu...

[mvp 78]

The continued growth of the younger pitchers will be interesting. Maybe they plateau after one year in the new system, maybe some more guys shine? Guys like Dobbins and Uberstine picked up steam late in the year. 

Fitts, Sandlin and Priester could be trade fodder.

I think Early is called up to AAA midseason and continues to pitch well. He peaks as a 4/5 at best, but his carrying tool is that he throws a lot of pitches well. I think that gets him to the bigs and I've been higher on him than SoxProspects since he was drafted. 

Still a little unsure about Wehunt. He needs more fine tuning for sure.

Monegro's problem is that he doesn't have a reliable fastball. He's a little limited for now, but I'm hopeful they can figure that out. 

[moonslav59]

Here are the projected rotations at each farm level by soxprospects.com

AAA: Criswell, Priester, Fitts, Dobbins, Gambrel/Drohan

AA: I Coffey, Sandlin, Early, Wehunt, Mullins/Monero

A+: E Rod, Paez, Tolle, Neely, Duffy/Ingrassia

A-: Valera, Ehrlicher, Judice, Clarke, Tygart/Cason

FCL: de la Cruz, Polanco, C Lee, Van der Schaaf, J Garcia, Reguillo, DHern, Soriano, Salcedo, Nunez

Likely to start on 60 Day IL:

MLB: Murphy, AAA: Perales, Bastardo, AA: Song 

 

 

[mvp 78]

You read the FCL squad wrong. You listed "returning pitchers" rather than "starting rotation." 

It would most likely be:

Bates

Salcedo

Lee

Balderas

Polanco

Reyes/Ruiz (when available)

[Larry Cook]

11 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

Here are the projected rotations at each farm level by soxprospects.com

AAA: Criswell, Priester, Fitts, Dobbins, Gambrel/Drohan

AA: I Coffey, Sandlin, Early, Wehunt, Mullins/Monero

A+: E Rod, Paez, Tolle, Neely, Duffy/Ingrassia

A-: Valera, Ehrlicher, Judice, Clarke, Tygart/Cason

FCL: de la Cruz, Polanco, C Lee, Van der Schaaf, J Garcia, Reguillo, DHern, Soriano, Salcedo, Nunez

Likely to start on 60 Day IL:

MLB: Murphy, AAA: Perales, Bastardo, AA: Song 

 

 

The Worcester rotation is intriguing and might be fun to watch. 

[moonslav59]

1 hour ago, Larry Cook said:

The Worcester rotation is intriguing and might be fun to watch. 

I think all the minor league rotations look very interesting and mostly promising. We don't need all to step up a notch or two- just 2-3 per level.

[moonslav59]

8 hours ago, mvp 78 said:

You read the FCL squad wrong. You listed "returning pitchers" rather than "starting rotation." 

It would most likely be:

Bates

Salcedo

Lee

Balderas

Polanco

Reyes/Ruiz (when available)

Right, you are. Thanks for setting me straight.

[Larry Cook]

In 2024, we had a lot of breakout players: 

campbell

garcia 

mongro 

Arias 

and several others. 
 

2025 already has one potential breakout star in Montgomery! 
the future of our farm system is very very bright 

2025 first round draft pick could be canneralla of Clemson and we have another superstar 

[moonslav59]

On 12/8/2024 at 9:52 PM, Larry Cook said:

In 2024, we had a lot of breakout players: 

campbell

garcia 

mongro 

Arias 

and several others. 
 

2025 already has one potential breakout star in Montgomery! 
the future of our farm system is very very bright 

2025 first round draft pick could be canneralla of Clemson and we have another superstar 

I'm hoping Jh Garcia, Bleis and Cespedes work themselves into the top 100.

Jo Garcia could be a mover and shaker.

If Romero keeps improving, he may finally reach the potential many once thought he had.

Other risers might be Valera, Ingrassia, Reyes and Wehunt- maybe a draft pick not named Montgomery.

[mvp 78]

When Romero moved up to AA (SSS), his k rate went way up and his bb rate went way down. We'll see how well he performs this year. At least he's somewhat relevant going into this year. He was completely ignored last year at this point. 

[moonslav59]

Bastardo selected by Jays.

[moonslav59]

Today, we lost...

4. Teel (Crochet trade)

5. Montgomery (Crochet trade)

8. Meidroth (Crochet trade)

18. Wikelman (Crochet trade)

39. Bastardo (Rule 5)

[moonslav59]

With the loss of 3 top 8 prospects plus #18 Wikelman, soxprospects.com's top 20 would be:

1. Anthony

2. Campbell

3. Mayer

4. Perales

5. Arias

6. Blies, 7. Cespedes, 8. Dobbins, 9. Fitts, 10. Tolle

11. Sandlin, 12. Jh Garcia, 13, Romero, 14. Early, 15. Jo Garcia

16. Cason, 17. Guerrero, 18. Castro, 19. Valera, 20. Penrod

The farm took a pretty big hit, today.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

32 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

With the loss of 3 top 8 prospects plus #18 Wikelman, soxprospects.com's top 20 would be:

1. Anthony

2. Campbell

3. Mayer

4. Perales

5. Arias

6. Blies, 7. Cespedes, 8. Dobbins, 9. Fitts, 10. Tolle

11. Sandlin, 12. Jh Garcia, 13, Romero, 14. Early, 15. Jo Garcia

16. Cason, 17. Guerrero, 18. Castro, 19. Valera, 20. Penrod

The farm took a pretty big hit, today.

My father was a farmer. Dig up and ship out a few trees, plant some more in the spring.

[Larry Cook]

If bres-slow agrees to dipito’s aggressive demands, the farm and roster will take a beating! 

[moonslav59]

57 minutes ago, Larry Cook said:

If bres-slow agrees to dipito’s aggressive demands, the farm and roster will take a beating! 

I think SEA wants ML players, and the word is a RHB at 1B, not Casas.

I'm sure he would not refuse ML ready or near ready ML prospects like Anthony, Campbell or Mayer, but I doubt the Sox offer that for an expensive pitcher. We could just sign Flaherty or Manaea for near the same AAV.

[moonslav59]

Some early mock drafts have these players 13-15:

15-14-13

Bleacher report: Aiva Arquette Ore St, Devin Taylor. Eli Willits

USA Today: Tre Phelps, Sean Gamble, Aiva Arquette

Future Stars: Eli Willits, D Taylor, Ike Irish

My MLB: Ike Irish, Brendon Summerhill

MLB.com rankings: Cam Cannala, Ma Belyeu, Luke Stevenson