2024 Prospects

[Hugh2]

The amazing thing about Casas was how people were still putting him down into July, because so many at the end of the day only look at that overall stat line.

[moonslav59]

The amazing thing about Casas was how people were still putting him down into July, because so many at the end of the day only look at that overall stat line.

 

His defense was so awful, too, so I think that was part of the criticism, but yes, some were going overboard. Someone even wanted him demoted.

[mvp 78]

The amazing thing about Casas was how people were still putting him down into July, because so many at the end of the day only look at that overall stat line.

 

People are dum dums. There were many of us on here who were noticing the trends in real time. Thankfully, there are truthers like Old Red who can really hold the line for their love of Casas!

[mvp 78]

His defense was so awful, too, so I think that was part of the criticism, but yes, some were going overboard. Someone even wanted him demoted.

 

His defense was bad. It turned around to be average in the second half from what I remember of the metrics.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

Just anecdotal evidence, here, but it seemed like Casas was getting squeezed by ball & strike calls in April.

 

Ornery old umps on ego trips would never do that to a rookie who yelled out calls before they were made.

 

(don't ever underestimate the reason people in authority take jobs in authority...)

[Larry Cook]

I am thinking rosier and Meidroth are the two position players from Worcester that get a chance to play for Boston this year!

[moonslav59]

I am thinking rosier and Meidroth are the two position players from Worcester that get a chance to play for Boston this year!

 

I guess you have Rafaela & Abreu breaking camp on the big club.

 

I'm thinking Yorke should be added to your list. (Plus, pitchers, of course.)

[Larry Cook]

I guess you have Rafaela & Abreu breaking camp on the big club.

 

I'm thinking Yorke should be added to your list. (Plus, pitchers, of course.)

 

Duran and O’Neil seem like trade targets along with gioletta, janson and Martin

[moonslav59]

Duran and O’Neil seem like trade targets along with gioletta, janson and Martin

 

I doubt we trade Gio or O'Neill until the deadline.

 

I'm fine with trading any and all 1 year players, at this point.

 

If we sign Monty, my view will change.

[Larry Cook]

I doubt we trade Gio or O'Neill until the deadline.

 

I'm fine with trading any and all 1 year players, at this point.

 

If we sign Monty, my view will change.

 

 

How many in total can we realistically trade at the deadline?

[moonslav59]

How many in total can we realistically trade at the deadline?

 

I don't think it's as hard as some think it is.

 

You just have to be prepared to take the best offer, even if you think it's not good enough.

 

Try for the best, but take the best offered.

 

This season, we don't have many big return trade chips, but we have a few that could bring back value, especially if they are having good years.

 

1 year guys:

Martin

Jansen (may be traded before opening day)

Gio

O'Neill

Pivetta

Refsnyder (option)

Criswell

 

2 year guy

McGuire

 

Longer term guys who might be traded:

Duran (5 yrs)

Yoshida (4 yrs)

Story (4 yrs + option)

 

 

[moonslav59]

Most have the Royals farm ranked bottom 10, so it's hard to know just how good David Sandlin is.

 

Here is my top 25:

 

1. Anthony

2. Teel

3. Mayer

4. Rafaela

5. Bleis

6. Abreu

7. Cespedes

8. Yorke

9. Zanetello

10. Joh Garcia

11. Perales

12. Wikelman

13. Fitts

14. Sandlin

15. Castro

16. Monegro

17. Anderson

18. Hickey

19. Meidroth

20. Slaten

21. Romero

22. Guerrero

23. Arias

24. Jordan

25. E R-C

 

[moonslav59]

MLBTR on Sandlin...

 

Sandlin brings some intriguing potential to the table, as the righty (who turns 23 next week) has a 3.41 ERA and an outstanding 32.38% strikeout rate in 68 2/3 career minor league innings. An 11th-round pick for the Royals in the 2022 draft, Sandlin had his 2023 season cut short by a lat injury, and he made only two appearances at the high-A level before being sidelined.

 

ESPN’s Kiley McDaniel recently ranked Sandlin as the fifth-best prospect in the Royals’ farm system, while The Athletic’s Keith Law ranked the righty seventh. Baseball America was slightly more pessimistic in ranking Sandlin only 20th, but still felt Sandlin might develop into at least a good reliever based on his two primary pitches —- a high 90s fastball and a plus slider. If his changeup and curveball can also develop, Sandlin can perhaps stick in the rotation, though he’s still something of a wild card considering that he hasn’t yet pitched much in pro ball.

[Larry Cook]

Most have the Royals farm ranked bottom 10, so it's hard to know just how good David Sandlin is.

 

Here is my top 25:

 

1. Anthony

2. Teel

3. Mayer

4. Rafaela

5. Bleis

6. Abreu

7. Cespedes

8. Yorke

9. Zanetello

10. Joh Garcia

11. Perales

12. Wikelman

13. Fitts

14. Sandlin

15. Castro

16. Monegro

17. Anderson

18. Hickey

19. Meidroth

20. Slaten

21. Romero

22. Guerrero

23. Arias

24. Jordan

25. E R-C

 

 

Just curious if you have your top 25 going into training camp last year. Seems like we added some talented prospects since last year.

[moonslav59]

Just curious if you have your top 25 going into training camp last year.

 

Soxprospects.com has theirs:

 

https://www.soxprospects.com/history.htm

 

1 Marcelo Mayer

2 Triston Casas

3 Miguel Bleis

4 Ceddanne Rafaela

5 Bryan Mata

6 Nick Yorke

7 Mikey Romero

8 Luis Perales

9 Brandon Walter

10 Eddinson Paulino

11 Roman Anthony

12 Matthew Lugo

13 Shane Drohan

14 Wilkelman Gonzalez

15 Enmanuel Valdez

16 Elmer Rodriguez-Cruz

17 Chris Murphy

18 Blaze Jordan

19 Nathan Hickey

20 Niko Kavadas

21 Marvin Alcantara

22 Brainer Bonaci

24 Wilyer Abreu

25 Luis Guerrero

[moonslav59]

Seems like we added some talented prospects since last year.

 

Here is what we lost and gained, since spring 2023:

 

Graduated:

2. Casas

15. EValdez

17. Murphy

27. Z Kelly

NR Bernardino (added in '23, too) & Jacques

 

Lost to Rule 5

13. Drohan

NR R Fernandez

 

Trades

NR Victor Santos & Nick Robertson (O'Neill)

 

Added since the end of 2022:

3. Teel (drafted)

10. Cespedes (IFA)

11. R Fitts (Dugo trade)

12. Zanetello (drafted)

??, D Sandlin (Schreiber trade) not rated, yet

22. A Anderson (drafted)

24. J Slated (Rule 5)

31. F Arias (IFA)

46. K Campbell (drafted)

49. J Riemer (drafted)

50. H Olivares (MiLFA)

57. C Early (drafted)

58. N Judice (Dugo trade)

NR (still a prospect?) I Campbell (Urias trade) & Weissert (Dugo trade)

NR Jorge Benitez & others (minor league FAs)

[mvp 78]

MLBTR on Sandlin...

 

Sandlin brings some intriguing potential to the table, as the righty (who turns 23 next week) has a 3.41 ERA and an outstanding 32.38% strikeout rate in 68 2/3 career minor league innings. An 11th-round pick for the Royals in the 2022 draft, Sandlin had his 2023 season cut short by a lat injury, and he made only two appearances at the high-A level before being sidelined.

 

ESPN’s Kiley McDaniel recently ranked Sandlin as the fifth-best prospect in the Royals’ farm system, while The Athletic’s Keith Law ranked the righty seventh. Baseball America was slightly more pessimistic in ranking Sandlin only 20th, but still felt Sandlin might develop into at least a good reliever based on his two primary pitches —- a high 90s fastball and a plus slider. If his changeup and curveball can also develop, Sandlin can perhaps stick in the rotation, though he’s still something of a wild card considering that he hasn’t yet pitched much in pro ball.

 

His rankings have been all over the place, partially because he was drafted in the 11th round in '22 and came out of nowhere. Ranking him around Fitts seems to make sense. Trading their 5th best reliever for a guy who could stick as a starter is kind of necessary when the farm is bereft of rotational talent.

 

The Greenville rotation of Perales/Sandlin/Monegro/ERC is at least interesting. He's most likely the first to be promoted to AA. Not very concerned about his High A numbers from the end of the year last year.

[moonslav59]

His rankings have been all over the place, partially because he was drafted in the 11th round in '22 and came out of nowhere. Ranking him around Fitts seems to make sense. Trading their 5th best reliever for a guy who could stick as a starter is kind of necessary when the farm is bereft of rotational talent.

 

The Greenville rotation of Perales/Sandlin/Monegro/ERC is at least interesting. He's most likely the first to be promoted to AA. Not very concerned about his High A numbers from the end of the year last year.

 

Makes sense. Maybe Wikelman will be promoted from AA to AAA, at some point.

 

soxprospects.com has 6 starters listed at AA. I find them "interesting," too.

 

Wikelman, Dobbins, Bastardo, I Coffey, Song & Penrod.

 

They also have Rogers and Duffy as part of 6 starters listed for Greenville.

 

Out of those 12, I see 6 or 7 with some serious promise, but not to be a 1/2 SP'er,

ever.

 

They still have Wink as the #1 SP'er for AAA, followed by Walter, Criswell, Fitts, Gambrell & Van Belle.

[mvp 78]

Noah Song isn't a starter anymore. He needs to be moved to the bullpen.

 

I bet Duffy starts in Salem and is moved to Greenville midyear.

 

Wikelman is probably up in WOO midseason. I hope he can stay as a starter, but they need to figure that out because his 40 man clock is ticking now. Perales too. If Perales doesn't jump this year, they need to push him to the pen.

 

I believe Winckowski should be swapped with Murphy on the BOS roster.

[moonslav59]

Noah Song isn't a starter anymore. He needs to be moved to the bullpen.

 

I bet Duffy starts in Salem and is moved to Greenville midyear.

 

Wikelman is probably up in WOO midseason. I hope he can stay as a starter, but they need to figure that out because his 40 man clock is ticking now. Perales too. If Perales doesn't jump this year, they need to push him to the pen.

 

I believe Winckowski should be swapped with Murphy on the BOS roster.

 

Agreed. If Wink is not on the opening day 13 staff, I will be shocked. It could only happen with no injuries, and Slaten & Mata looking good enough to want to keep on the team. Even then, we could start Campbell, Murphy or Weisser in AAA.

 

If the idea is to definitively make Wink a SP'er, again, I think they can give him some 4-5 IP relief outings in April, every 4-5 days, until we shake things out.

 

Wink is too good to put in AAA.

[mvp 78]

The only reason they put him in the rotation was because the Sox mentioned stretching various players out. Really, Whitlock and Winckowski just need to be bullpen arms.

[Larry Cook]

The only reason they put him in the rotation was because the Sox mentioned stretching various players out. Really, Whitlock and Winckowski just need to be bullpen arms.

 

Houck needs to be a bullpen arm as well. But we do not have enough starters right now.

[moonslav59]

Houck needs to be a bullpen arm as well. But we do not have enough starters right now.

 

Out of Whitlock, Wink and Houck, it does make sense that he'd be the one that starts, but I agree, he should be in the pen.

 

I still think our staff could be greatly improved by signing a solid, innings eater SP'er and having Houck in the pen or as the 6th starter.

 

I doubt it happens. I'd love to read we signed Monty, tomorrow morning, but I'm beyond even hoping for that. I'm even thinking Clevinger is a pipe dream. I find myself thinking a guy like Bauer might be worth a shot. Things are that bad.

 

Dream on.

 

[mvp 78]

Houck needs to be a bullpen arm as well. But we do not have enough starters right now.

 

I agree. I only don't put Whitlock in the rotation ahead of Houck because of his health concerns.

[moonslav59]

I like soxprospects.com and think they do a fine job covering the farm.

 

Here is a look back at how good and bad some of their rankings have been. I'm looking at only top 5's by 3 year intervals:

 

Highest ranking lister per player

2003-2005:

1. Lester, HRam, Youk, Papelbon, F Sanchez, J de la Rosa

2. B Moss

3. Pedroia, A Sanchez, K ShoppachA Alvarez

4. (none)

5. C Hansen, C Span, P Dumatrait

 

2006-2008:

1. Lester, Papelbon, Ellsbury, Buchholtz, Masterson, L Anderson

2. C Hansen, M Bowden

3. J Lowrie, J Reddick

4. M Almanzar

5. B Moss, M Delcarmen, C Kelly, B Cox

 

2009-2011

1. C Kelly, L Anderson, R Kalish, W Middlebrooks

2. J Reddick, A Ranaudo, L Anderson, M Bowden

3. A Rizzo, F Doubront

4. Bogaerts, D Bard, L Anderson, R Westmoreland, D Britton

5. J Iglesias, J Tazawa, Y Navarro, S Pimental

 

2012-2014

1. Betts, Bogaerts, Middlebrooks, Swihart

2. JBJ, Barnes, Ranaudo, Owens

3. Margot, Webster, Cecchini

4. Devers, Iglesias

5. ERod, R de la Rosa, Lavarnway, Brentz

 

2015-2017:

1. Devers, ERod, Moncada, Swihart, Groome

2. Beni, Chavis

3. Mata, Espinoza, Owens, S Travis

4. Houck, Margot

5. Dalbec, Kopech, B Johnson, D Flores

 

2018-2020

1. Casas, Groome, Chavis

2. Mata, Downs, Dalbec, DHern

3. Duran, Houck

4. Song, Jimenez

5. S Travis

 

2021-2023

1. Casas, Mayer, Anthony

2. Downs, Bleis

3. Bello, Duran, Yorke, Rafaela, Teel

4. Whitlock

5. Houck, Walter, Mata

 

2003-2023 (21 years fo soxprospects.com)

 

1. Betts, Lester, Devers, Bogaerts, Papelbon, HRam, Youk, Erod, Casas

Anthony, Mayer, Ellsbury, Buchholz, Moncada, Masterson, J de la Rosa, W Middlebrooks

Swihart, C Kelly, L Anderson, R Kalish, Groome, Chavis

 

2. JBJ, Barnes, J Reddick, B Moss, Beni

Mata, Bleis, C Hansen, Dalbec, DHern

M Bowden, A Ranaudo, Owens, Downs

 

3. Pedroia, Rizzo, A Sanchez, Doubront, Duran, Houck

Margot, K Shoppach, J Lowrie, Rafaela, Yorke, Teel

Espinoza. A Alvarez, Webster, Cecchini, S Travis

 

4. Whitlock, D Bard, J Iglesias

N Song, M Almanzar, Westmoreland, D Britton, Jimenez

 

5. J Tazawa

M DelCarmen, B Johnson, Walter

C Span, P Dumatrait, B Cox, Y Navarro, S Pimental, R de la Rosa, Lavarnway, Brentz, D Florez

 

 

[Larry Cook]

I agree. I only don't put Whitlock in the rotation ahead of Houck because of his health concerns.

 

Can Whitlock hold up for 70 appearances a year out of the bullpen?

[moonslav59]

Can Whitlock hold up for 70 appearances a year out of the bullpen?

 

It's hard to know.

 

That is probably easier than 28 GS.

 

Maybe he pitches 40 games, going 2 IP, maybe 3 every now and then, for 90 IP, total.

[mvp 78]

Can Whitlock hold up for 70 appearances a year out of the bullpen?

 

Only 22 pitchers threw 70+ games last year.

 

Winckowski - 60

Martin - 55

Bernardino - 55

Jansen - 51

 

Whitlock pitched in 46 in '21. I'm sure he could throw consistently in the 50's.

[Bellhorn04]

Only 22 pitchers threw 70+ games last year.

 

I'm actually surprised it was that many. That's a pile of games.

[moonslav59]

Only 22 pitchers threw 70+ games last year.

 

Winckowski - 60

Martin - 55

Bernardino - 55

Jansen - 51

 

Whitlock pitched in 46 in '21. I'm sure he could throw consistently in the 50's.

 

Do you think he'd be better used in 50-55 games for 1 IP (maybe 4-6 outs, rarely) of 40 games at 2 IP (with 7-9 outs, rarely?)