2024 Prospects

[moonslav59]

http://news.soxprospects.com/2024/02/how-red-sox-draft-strategy-has-affected.html

 

I'm putting this year because it's less likely to get buried. It's a piece written by Ian Cundall about the recent draft strategy that is hitter focused and generally ignores pitching and the effect it has on developing home grown pitching.

 

Some quick takeaways:

 

Sox are dead last in bonus pool spending on pitching since 2018.

 

Of the 31 pitchers in the top 100, 30 were drafted and only one were IFA's (2024). For last year, it was 25 draftees and 2 IFA's. Half of the top 100 pitchers are from the 1st round. The next quarter are from rounds 2 and 3.

 

Wow, soxprospects.com with a major, data-driven piece.

 

It pretty much lays it all out.

 

You can't blame the site for getting too excited about some of our pitching prospects over the last decade or so, but man-o-man, they have swung and missed on quite a few. The odd thing is, the ones that worked the best, Bello, Crawford, Houck, Whitlock and Wink weren't ranked as highly as some of the flame outs.

 

Here are the top ranked Sox pitching prospects in the last decade (highest ranking listed):

 

It's not easy...

 

1 Groome ('18)

2 Mata ('19), DHern ('19), Owens ('14)

3 Bello ('22), Espinoza ('16)

4 Whitlock ('21), Houck ('18), Webster ('14)

5 Walter ('22), Song ('20), Kopech ('16), Ranaudo ('14)

6 Drohan ('23), Shawaryn ('18), Beeks ('18), B Johnson ('16), ERod ('15), Barnes ('14 but #3 in '13)

7 Perales ('23), Seabold ('21)

8 TWard ('21), AScherff ('18), Raudes ('17)

9 Wikelman ('23), Winckowski ('22). Aldo Ramirez ('21), Feltman ('19), Lakins ('16)

10 Murphy ('22)

[mvp 78]

Lester - 2nd round

Buchholz - 1st round

Masterson - 2nd round

Kopech - 1st round

Houck - 1st round

[sk7326]

Ultimately this is what Breslow got the medium sized bucks for. Teams like Houston, Saint Louis, Tampa, Cleveland have found consistent ways to add and develop pitching. Can the Red Sox find a way to get the extra 10 scouting points of command. Like we know that Wikelman has the body and velocity to start - but can the coaches and analytics reliably get guys to repeat deliveries and find working third pitches. Even with a case like Wikelman, there is still a feasible path to at least get him to be a two times through starter.

[moonslav59]

Ultimately this is what Breslow got the medium sized bucks for. Teams like Houston, Saint Louis, Tampa, Cleveland have found consistent ways to add and develop pitching. Can the Red Sox find a way to get the extra 10 scouting points of command. Like we know that Wikelman has the body and velocity to start - but can the coaches and analytics reliably get guys to repeat deliveries and find working third pitches. Even with a case like Wikelman, there is still a feasible path to at least get him to be a two times through starter.

 

I'm not sure there is a single pitcher in our system that can be "fixed" to the point where they can even be a solid #3 SP'er. Maybe a #4. Maybe a decent RP'er. Maybe even a decent top set-up man, but I would not be shocked, if we got close to zilch from what we have, right now.

 

That does not mean I have lost all hope. We do have a a pitcher or two that could possibly make it to the 2 slot or maybe closer, and maybe it's not even one we talk about much or at all.

 

We have a lot of pitchers with some promise. Some might take a bold step forward, this year, especially if we can invoke some changes in our developmental system that creates tangible results, quickly. There are almost too many to name, so the sheer number of pitchers with promise, should at some point, produce something decent- you'd think, right?

 

I sure hope so.

 

Here are the summaries given by soxprospects.com on our ranked pitchers:

 

7. Perales: Potential back-end starter or multi-inning bridge arm. Ceiling of a mid-rotation starter. Wide variance arm with a high ceiling and low, but rising, floor. Size, delivery, and inconsistent command and control profile might push him into the bullpen, but has shown among the best raw stuff of any arm in the system and was identified by scouts as the top pitching prospect in the Florida Complex League in 2022. Will flash two plus pitches, with his changeup and cutter showing potential as well. All have shown bat-missing ability, and he shows comfort throwing all of them in most counts. Athletic and moves well on and off the mound. Next step in his development is finding consistency with his delivery and showing he can handle a full season’s workload. By staying healthy for the 2023 season, has gone a long way towards addressing the latter concern.

 

9. Wikelman: Potential high-quality, multi-inning relief arm. Ceiling of a quality mid-rotation starter. Still has a wide variance of outcomes; will show four pitches, including a fastball and curveball that stand out, but delivery and command are more like that of a reliever. Potential for three above-average-to-better pitches, but still a long way to go in development and must significantly improve command and control to reach his ceiling. Needs to throw more strikes and be more efficient with his pitches to last deeper into games. Does not have the typical size you look for in a starter. Has simplified his delivery over the course of his career, which should make it easier for him to keep his arm in sync with the rest of his body, but still has considerable effort in his delivery. If command does not improve, that, along with his size and delivery, could push him to a short relief bullpen role, but with his stuff, he could thrive in such a role.

 

11. Fitts: Potential multi-inning depth reliever. Ceiling of a back-end starter. Has some traits you look for in a starting pitching prospect, but effort in delivery and lack of a third pitch hint at the bullpen being the most likely outcome. Stuff improved as the 2023 season went on and could be a candidate to take a step forward with new development staff, as he was tweaking his secondary pitches throughout 2023. Needs to find a consistent third pitch and continue to refine his slider to have a chance to stick in the rotation. Has a starter's fastball with the command and control to work deep into games.

 

20. Monegro: Potential up-and-down, multi-inning relief arm. Ceiling of a back-end starter. High variance arm who is still learning to pitch. Still very projectable and has already added velocity, even within the season. Could gain even more velocity given how loose his arm is and the remaining projection in his frame. Stuff took a significant step forward in 2023, making him a much more interesting prospect. Needs to show more consistency and improve command and control as he moves up the ladder. Fastball quality could stand to improve, as could creating separation between his two breaking balls. Has dabbled with a changeup in the past and adding something like that or a splitter could give him a better chance to stick in the starting rotation. Pitches with emotion and swagger.

 

23. Dobbins: Potential up-and-down depth starter or multi-inning reliever. Ceiling of a back-end starter. At his best, will show plus velocity and three secondary pitches that can all get hitters out. Has pitches that move in all directions and confidence that he can throw any of them for strikes. Effortful delivery brings injury and consistency concerns, and needs to improve his fastball command. Fastball can get hittable later in games, and he needs to show he can consistently get left-handed hitters out to profile as a starter, but has developed into one of the more intriguing arms in the system.

 

24. Slaten: Potential middle reliever. Fastball, slider and cutter give him three usable pitches. Has taken the necessary steps forward with his command and control to project as a major league bullpen piece. Has the stuff and demeanor you look for in a bullpen arm.

 

25. E R-C Potential emergency depth starter. Ceiling of a back-end starting pitcher. . Has a four-pitch mix, with three showing average potential, but stuff is on the pedestrian side overall and there are questions about how many bats it will miss against more advanced hitters. Solid pitchability. Arsenal does not look like it would translate to a bullpen role, so most likely will have to show he can stick in the rotation.

 

26. Guerrero: Potential 5th/6th inning reliever. Ceiling of a setup arm. Has some of the best raw stuff of any relief arm in the system, but needs to improve command and control and consistency. Walks too many hitters and has not missed as many bats in the high minors as he did in the low minors. Splitter is a potential separator pitch with the ability to miss bats at the highest level, but needs to regain his 2022 form with the pitch. Fastball has good velocity, but is hittable and he will have to show the ability to command it to succeed. Plus makeup and regarded as one of the hardest workers in the system. Very popular with teammates.

 

27. Bastardo: Potential multi-inning relief arm. Ceiling of a back-end starter. Right now, lacks the fastball quality and command to stick as a starting pitcher. Secondary pitches are ahead of fastball with changeup and breaking ball both showing bat-missing potential. Needs to further refine his two breaking balls, which can run into each other at times.

 

28. Mata: Potential multi-inning relief arm. Ceiling of a late-inning relief arm. Trending heavily to the bullpen because he still struggles with command and consistency between outings and as he works deeper into games, has struggled to stay healthy, and will be out of options after 2023. Type of arm that would be more effective in shorter bursts out of the bullpen. At his best, will show the potential for a true four-pitch mix with two potential above-average offerings. Injury risk is also a major concern, as he has not made it through a full season healthy, which also points towards a future bullpen role.

 

29. Hoppe Potential up-and-down middle reliever. Ceiling of a seventh-inning reliever. Pure relief type with intriguing pitch characteristics. Threw in a long-relief role in college, but is being used in a traditional short relief role in pro ball. Secondary pitches need work and has to improve his command and control in order to reach his potential.

[moonslav59]

Cont...

 

32. Walter: Potential depth starter. Ceiling of a back-end starter or bulk reliever. Unlikely to hold down a consistent rotation spot, but could be effective following an opener or for stretches if he is commanding his pitches and mixing them well. Does not have the delivery and velocity of a starter. Sinker leaves little margin for error as it primarily is in the 90-91 mph range. Has to be commanding it or he gets hit hard. Secondary pitches flash potential, but can be inconsistent. Changeup and sweeper both show at least average potential, and the addition of a cutter gives him a new look in a different velocity band. Has had success against left-handed hitters, which gives him a floor at least of an up-and-down lefty specialist.

 

33. Troye: Potential up-and-down reliever. Ceiling of a middle reliever. Has intriguing raw stuff, but has a long way to go, especially with his command and control and finding consistency with his mechanics. Has missed considerable time with injuries and struggled with control throughout his career. Has the size, arm strength, and the type of fastball teams look for. Key for development now is focusing on how to harness his stuff.

 

34. Rogers: Potential left-handed reliever. Ceiling of a multi-inning bridge arm. Fastball and changeup are intriguing, but improving his command and control and developing consistency with his secondary pitches are keys for him to reach his potential. Not overpowering so will have to locate. Stuff and command tend to degrade as the game goes on. Stuff grades out well analytically and is appealing for model-driven teams.

 

36. Gambrell: Potential up-and-down swingman. Wider range of outcomes for a college player due to his pitch changes after the pandemic. Got into better shape and velocity has increased in 2021. Reasonably high floor as a reliever due to fastball/breaking ball combination if injury issues crop back up or command does not take a step forward.

 

38. Penrod: Potential high-minors organizational depth arm. Ceiling of an up-and-down depth starter. Better than your typical indy ball signing, especially given how little time he has in affiliated ball. Will show feel for all five of his pitches and solid velocity from the left side. Stuff will be tested against more advanced hitters, but has shown already that he is too good for the lower minors. Still pretty early in the developmental process even though he is already 26, so there is a chance further work with player development could unlock even more.

 

39. Paez: Potential emergency up-and-down starter. Ceiling of a back-end starter. One of the more interesting pitching prospects in the Red Sox low minors, but has a wide gap between what he currently is and what he could be. Already shows an intriguing three-pitch mix with advanced feel and command for his age. Stuff at present is on the light side, but has already started to tick up. If stuff continues to tick up, projection could change.

 

45. I Coffey Potential organizational depth arm. Throws strikes with a three-pitch mix and comes from a deceptive arm slot. The type of player who may have success in the low minors due to combination of pitch mix, command-and-control profile, and unique look/arm slot, but will face a much tougher test in the high minors against more mature hitters.

 

47. Cepeda, 48. Sena, 49. Riemer, 50. Olivares, 53. Zeferjahn, 55. Liu, 56. Soto, 57. Early, 58. Judice, 60. Mullins

 

I call this quantity vs quality.

 

I see about 15 pitchers with enough promise to have some hopes, not counting those not in the stateside leagues. You'd think we might get 3-5 of these 15 to do something decent, but I'm not si sure.

Edited February 14, 2024 by moonslav59

[Larry Cook]

Lester - 2nd round

Buchholz - 1st round

Masterson - 2nd round

Kopech - 1st round

Houck - 1st round

 

Ball???

[mvp 78]

Ball???

 

Yeah, you don't hit on every pick. He was also drafted for his athleticism, not his pitching which was dumb.

[moonslav59]

Yeah, you don't hit on every pick. He was also drafted for his athleticism, not his pitching which was dumb.

 

Was Kopech a "hit?"

[moonslav59]

Our highest picks:

 

4. Mayer '21

7. Beni '15

7. Ball '13

12. Groome '16

14. Teel '23

17. David Murphy '03

 

Previous century (top 15 only):

3. Mike Garmen '67

4. Ken Brett '66

5. Billy C '65

7. Nixon '93

12. Nomar '94

12. Adam Everitt '98

12. Tom Fischer '88

13. Andrew Madden '77

13. Noel Jenke '69

14. Greg Murphy '86

14. John Marzano '84

15. Andy Yount '95

15. Otis Foster '75

15. Jim Rice '71

 

[mvp 78]

Was Kopech a "hit?"

 

Yes. He became a top prospect. He struggled with a few injuries. He's as much of a hit as Houck IMO.

 

https://www.southsidesox.com/2023/11/6/23941670/chicago-white-sox-what-went-wrong-2023-michael-kopech

[moonslav59]

Yes. He became a top prospect. He struggled with a few injuries. He's as much of a hit as Houck IMO.

 

https://www.southsidesox.com/2023/11/6/23941670/chicago-white-sox-what-went-wrong-2023-michael-kopech

 

Kopech has had one decent year with 25 GS and a 4.49 FIP.

 

Houck has a career FIP of 3.57.

[sk7326]

Kopech has had one decent year with 25 GS and a 4.49 FIP.

 

Houck has a career FIP of 3.57.

 

Houck has been healthier. This is also a place where FIP and such can mislead just because Houck's workload is so tightly managed.

[moonslav59]

Houck has been healthier. This is also a place where FIP and such can mislead just because Houck's workload is so tightly managed.

 

Kopech has been healthier than Espinoza. Does that change anything?

[mvp 78]

FanGraphs ranks Mayer 69th and Teel 80th in most recent top 100.

 

Mayer has now had two years of underlying issues and we’re starting to worry.

 

The pandemic definitely made it more difficult to evaluate Mayer’s draft class, but it’s still pretty shocking that this particular player, who for so long seemed like a lock to be a slugging big league shortstop, has now had two years of scary underlying issues against secondary stuff. Even as he hit .286/.406/.504 at Low-A and .280/.371/.494 at High-A across his first 126 full-season games, all as a young-for-the-level hitter, Mayer has had pretty gnarly splits against offspeed and breaking pitches for the past two seasons. His offensive performance collapsed when he was promoted to Double-A Portland and he was shut down in early August with a left shoulder impingement and inflammation. Synergy Sports has Mayer slashing .154/.221/.269 against secondary pitches in 2023, but with a .795 OPS versus fastballs. While Marcelo’s hands are explosive and powerful, his front side is so upright and stiff through contact that it makes it tough for him to cover the bottom of the strike zone. He swings over the top of a ton of softer stuff in the strike zone. There are players who have remedied similar issues in recent years — such as Max Muncy and seemingly Spencer Torkelson — and the ceiling on Marcelo’s power output is huge if he can do so too.

 

Compounding things was a regression in his defense. Mayer was a bit boxier than the usual elite shortstop prospect, but his hands and actions were so skillful and polished that he seemed likely to play there despite middling range. Perhaps because his mobility was compromised from the general discomfort of a shoulder issue, Mayer’s range backed up in 2023. His footwork and actions are still very polished, but his range and arm were on the fringe. He may be able to play short if just one of those traits is an issue, but probably not both. Again, there are recent examples of players who have undergone a rapid physical transformation while still a prospect (be it Bo Bichette and Julio Rodríguez in a helpful way, Kevin Maitan in a seemingly detrimental way), and it feels like Mayer is perhaps at a fork in the road of this kind. Lefty-hitting shortstops with plus power are rare, and we want to signal some alarm here while still holding Mayer’s grade in a place that values his upside in the event that this stuff gets resolved. Because of the missing 2020 summer, we aren’t long from Mayer having been frustrating for a longer than he was good, and whether or not he looks much better out of the gate in Fort Myers is an important thing to monitor. We will probably have a quick hook here here if things don’t look good.

 

f***ing LOL.

 

Teel is a decorated college catcher with a fabulous offensive resume.

 

Teel’s high school senior season was wiped out by the pandemic, and he ended up opting out of that year’s draft in favor of committing to UVA, where he spent three years maturing as a hitter and tapping into his power. His 2023 stats were eye-popping, with a .418/.484/.673 slash line that helped earn him the 14th overall selection in last year’s draft. Teel climbed through Boston’s minor league system after being drafted, spending time on the complex and at High-A before wrapping up the season at Double-A; he finished the year with a 173 wRC+ across those three levels. That’s especially impressive given that he had already played a full season of college baseball before that, and as a catcher no less.

 

His swing is not particularly aesthetically pleasing, with enough violence to knock his helmet clean off with virtually every hack, but given the results it has yielded, it seems to be working well enough for him not to mess with it too much at this point, especially given how quick his hands are and how well he’s able to get his barrel on balls throughout the zone. While Teel’s chase rate crept up over the course of his college career (it was an uncomfortably high 28% his junior year), his early days as a professional haven’t been as plagued by chase as that would imply, though the sample is of course rather small.

 

Teel’s defensive movements are also rather mechanically maniacal, with a ton of extraneous movement as the pitcher completes his windup. Unlike the ain’t-broke-don’t-fix-it approach to his offensive mechanics, his defense may need to be simplified as he’s tasked with receiving more advanced arsenals as he progresses. Teel’s arm is strong, but as with the rest of his movements, it’s an atypical look for a catcher, as he slings the ball from a sidearm slot that at times looks more like an off-balance cross-diamond throw from a shortstop. Odd duck as he may be across the board, Teel nevertheless presents a well-rounded overall profile and seems likely to stick at catcher.

[moonslav59]

#14 Anthony...

 

Anthony developed into a better center fielder throughout 2023 and has the offensive foundation (plate discipline and contact) to be a top five prospect if he can more readily get to his power in games.

 

It took us an extra beat to get on this train because Anthony has some weird underlying data characteristics that have us doubting whether his plate discipline is as good as his walk rates might indicate; we also thought he needed a swing change to get to his power (he still kind of does). But Anthony looked much better on tape as a center field defender in September than he did early in the 2023 season, and re-evaluating his defensive home makes a gigantic difference in the way he’s projected overall because he can now have an offensive flaw or two and still be an impact everyday player. While he still isn’t a true big league-caliber speedster or dynamic defensive outfielder, Anthony’s long strides give him enough gap-to-gap range to play center field at an average level, and his reads and ball skills looked much better late in 2023 than they did when Anthony first transitioned from mostly right field to center in pro ball.

 

Anthony’s swing has become almost a carbon copy of Rafael Devers‘ cut, with a violent, mostly downward swooping bat path that relies on the bend in his lower half to go down and scoop low pitches with power like Devers does. While Anthony has shown some ability to do this (it’s absolutely gorgeous when he does), he isn’t doing so consistently. Opposing pitchers can limit his power by approaching him in the bottom half of the strike zone, as he tends to drive those pitches into the ground, and soft stuff precisely located down and away from him often eludes him entirely. Anthony slugged .466 at mostly Low- and High-A in 2023, but his expected slugging percentage based on his quality of contact was only .370; there isn’t consistent lift and power here yet despite his surface level performance. Again, this was way more of an issue in our estimation of him when he was projected as a corner guy. The rest of Anthony’s profile is pretty clean; he’s tough to make swing and miss, he has fantastic bat speed, he already has big league-average raw power as he approaches his 20th birthday, and he’s still physically projectable.

 

Anthony’s plate discipline evokes a baked good that has too much food coloring in it; there’s an air of artificiality to it that makes it feel a bit unnatural. We hypothesize this because Anthony lets a lot of tasty pitches go right past him. One team we source data from tracks players’ “cookie swing rate”; in essence, the rate of swing when a pitch is right down the middle of the plate. Anthony’s was among the lowest in the minors last year, and we think it speaks to an approach that includes premeditated takes rather than actual selectivity. We’re skeptical his elite walk rates will continue as he sees more upper-level time, but the all-around offensive package here is still a big deal for a viable center fielder. Like Spencer Jones of the Yankees, we’re projecting some on swing actualization and center field defense to get to this big time FV grade. Anthony will probably only kick down the door and force the big league issue if things click with his swing, and is probably on more of a late 2026 or early 2027 debut trajectory if they don’t.

[moonslav59]

#50 Rafaela...

 

Rafaela is a Gold Glove-caliber center fielder with a very immature approach.

 

Rafaela is a Gold Glove-caliber center field defender capable of making tough plays look easy and impossible plays possible, especially around the wall. He took to center field very quickly after moving there from shortstop (where he still plays on occasion) a few years ago. Especially if you’re inclined to project improvement here because he hasn’t played the outfield for very long, Rafaela has a chance to be the best defensive center fielder in baseball at peak. He is also capable of playing a couple of spots on the infield, though not nearly as well; unless his plate discipline is so terrible that he shifts into a premium utility role, he is probably just going to play center field all the time.

 

Even at 23, Rafaela still has a sinewy, projectable frame. He’s hit 21 bombs each of the last two seasons and we project he’ll add another half grade of power in his mid-to-late 20s. Whether he’ll get to that power is another matter — Rafaela is a very aggressive hitter who has chased at a 40% clip each of the last two seasons. There is some risk of his offense totally bottoming out the way Cristian Pache‘s did, but here he’s projected more like Kevin Pillar but with peak years of superior power.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

Great -- we're counting on an odd duck and a worried-he'll-suck.

 

But how credible can Fangraphs really be, when they somehow project the Sox' MLB team -- as is -- better than 16 other clubs in 2024... while allowing more runs per game than only 6, yet scoring more per game than everyone, except the Braves, Dodgers and Astros (yes, even slighter ahead of the Verdugo pinstripes).

[mvp 78]

Great -- we're counting on an odd duck and a worried-he'll-suck.

 

But how credible can Fangraphs really be, when they somehow project the Sox' MLB team -- as is -- better than 16 other clubs in 2024... while allowing more runs per game than only 6, yet scoring more per game than everyone, except the Braves, Dodgers and Astros (yes, even slighter ahead of the Verdugo pinstripes).

 

I think Teel is undervalued. He's going to be really good.

 

I'm not sure how to feel about Mayer, but he definitely needs a bounceback season since the org is relying on him so much.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

I think Teel is undervalued. He's going to be really good.

 

I'm not sure how to feel about Mayer, but he definitely needs a bounceback season since the org is relying on him so much.

 

Last summer one report said Keel's pop-time to second was quicker than any big leaguer's. Now that I read he throws side-arm, wondering if they meant "popping" his UCL...

[Larry Cook]

Last summer one report said Keel's pop-time to second was quicker than any big leaguer's. Now that I read he throws side-arm, wondering if they meant "popping" his UCL...

 

I saw him at Virginia and his throws to second were super impressive! I seem to remember closer to 3/4 than side arm

[mvp 78]

I saw him at Virginia and his throws to second were super impressive! I seem to remember closer to 3/4 than side arm

 

Here's a good view of his mechanics.

 

https://twitter.com/goodrocatching/status/1697975504689647837

 

Don't pitchers report that throwing 3/4's is easier on their arm?

[notin]

On Teel, who checks on at number 80 on the Fangraphs Top 100

 

”…Teel’s defensive movements are also rather mechanically maniacal, with a ton of extraneous movement as the pitcher completes his windup. Unlike the ain’t-broke-don’t-fix-it approach to his offensive mechanics, his defense may need to be simplified as he’s tasked with receiving more advanced arsenals as he progresses. Teel’s arm is strong, but as with the rest of his movements, it’s an atypical look for a catcher, as he slings the ball from a sidearm slot that at times looks more like an off-balance cross-diamond throw from a shortstop. Odd duck as he may be across the board, Teel nevertheless presents a well-rounded overall profile and seems likely to stick at catcher.”

 

Source: https://blogs.fangraphs.com/2024-top-100-prospects/

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

Here's a good view of his mechanics.

 

https://twitter.com/goodrocatching/status/1697975504689647837

 

Don't pitchers report that throwing 3/4's is easier on their arm?

 

It's all about the legs -- the biggest muscles of the body. If Teel has strong legs and optimizes them, he takes most of the strain off his arm (which controls direction/trajectory of the throw). Most catcher's mitts sweep the ball to bare hands moving close to right ears, from where throws come straight over the top.

 

Teel is young, and his release point got him to the pros. Sale's delivery was also described as odd, and he was a great MLB pitcher in his 20s... then his body blew apart.

[mvp 78]

On Teel, who checks on at number 80 on the Fangraphs Top 100

 

”…Teel’s defensive movements are also rather mechanically maniacal, with a ton of extraneous movement as the pitcher completes his windup. Unlike the ain’t-broke-don’t-fix-it approach to his offensive mechanics, his defense may need to be simplified as he’s tasked with receiving more advanced arsenals as he progresses. Teel’s arm is strong, but as with the rest of his movements, it’s an atypical look for a catcher, as he slings the ball from a sidearm slot that at times looks more like an off-balance cross-diamond throw from a shortstop. Odd duck as he may be across the board, Teel nevertheless presents a well-rounded overall profile and seems likely to stick at catcher.”

 

Source: https://blogs.fangraphs.com/2024-top-100-prospects/

 

Yes, this is where are comments are coming from. Thank you for joining us.

[moonslav59]

There is a good chance one of our top 3 prospects won't come near expectations- maybe even 2. There's a better chance 1-2 of the next 3 ranked prospects don't. Maybe just 1-2 of the next 6 might help in some way. It's hard to know which ones will, and which ones won't. I like Anthony and Teel the most, but I'm also pretty high on Abreu, Rafaela and Cespedes. I might be lower than others on Mayer, Yorke and our two top 10 pitchers: Wikelman and Perales. Bleis seems like the hardest to gauge.

 

With so many recent prospect graduations and the addition of some 5+ year control youngsters like Grissom, Campbell and Slaten, I am pretty optimistic about just about every part of the future of this team, except SP'er.

 

Years of control (only 2+ yrs listed)

 

C: 5+ Teel, 5 Wong (%+ Joh Garcia, Hickey, Brannon)

 

1B: 5 Casas, 4 Dalbec (5+ Jordan, Kavadas)

 

2B: 5+ Grissom, (Story?) EValdez, Yorke, Alacantara, 4 Reyes

 

SS: 4 Story, 5+ Mayer, Cespedes, Zanetello, Romero, DHam

 

3B: 10 Devers, 5+ Meirdroth, A Anderson

 

LF: 5 Duran, 5+ Castro, Rosier, Paulino

 

CF: 5+ Rafaela, Anthony, Bleis

 

RF: 5+ Abreu

 

DH: 4 Yoshida

 

SP: 5 Bello, _____, ______, ______, Walter, Murphy, Fitts

5+ Wikelman, Perales, Gambrell, Monegro, Dobbins, E R-C, Bastardo, Rogers, I Coffey

 

RP: 5 Crawford, Winckowski, Bernardino, Campbell, 4 Houck, Whitlock, 3 Schreiber

5+= Slaten, Mata, Kelly, Guerrero, Hoppe. Troye, Criswell

 

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

Looking at that list of potential hitters and wondering how many, if any, will ever have a season of .900+ OPS in the bigs...

 

The defending cellar dwellers in Boston had zero at .900 last year, but Devers has done it before in 2019 (the year he had 92 extra-base hits). He was joined by Betts, Bogaerts and Martinez that summer... the pennant-winning Astros had five at .900. And not all guys have to be stars, just solid batters; the '03 Sox also had four at .900 -- Manny and Papi, plus Nixon and Mueller.

 

Casas seems capable of .900 OPS. Anthony may hit with enough power... There are talented prospects, but right now, who else has that "ceiling?"

[mvp 78]

Looking at that list of potential hitters and wondering how many, if any, will ever have a season of .900+ OPS in the bigs...

 

The defending cellar dwellers in Boston had zero at .900 last year, but Devers has done it before in 2019 (the year he had 92 extra-base hits). He was joined by Betts, Bogaerts and Martinez that summer... the pennant-winning Astros had five at .900. And not all guys have to be stars, just solid batters; the '03 Sox also had four at .900 -- Manny and Papi, plus Nixon and Mueller.

 

Casas seems capable of .900 OPS. Anthony may hit with enough power... There are talented prospects, but right now, who else has that "ceiling?"

 

From May 1st on, Casas had a 916 OPS. His April was really dreadful and dragged down his overall numbers.

[mvp 78]

If you go from April 19th - end of season, it's a 901 OPS for Casas. Three bad weeks.

[moonslav59]

From May 1st on, Casas had a 916 OPS. His April was really dreadful and dragged down his overall numbers.

 

Just anecdotal evidence, here, but it seemed like Casas was getting squeezed by ball & strike calls in April.

[mvp 78]

Just anecdotal evidence, here, but it seemed like Casas was getting squeezed by ball & strike calls in April.

 

Thru 4/18

161 BABIP

33.9 K%

10.2 BB%

 

After

336 BABIP

23.9 K%

14.4 BB%