2024 Prospects

[mvp 78]

Being state side this year, I expect to see a more robust scouting report at some point.

 

#metoo

 

Without them seeing Cespedes in person, it's hard to really fill one out. They may even have one this spring.

[moonslav59]

BA came out with their top 100. Sox on the list.

 

14. Mayer

21. Anthony

62. Teel

94. Rafaela

 

Sox had 5 prospects who didn't make the final cut for the top 100 but did receive votes (meaning they're in some peoples top 100)

 

Miguel Bleis

Wikelman Gonzelez

Dick Fitts

Wilyer Abreu

Yoeilin Cespeds.

 

Encouraging.

 

Wow, 2 pitchers on the extended list!

[moonslav59]

Bleis was noted as being in the "just missed" category. If Cespedes has a strong season, he'll be in the conversation too.

 

I'm getting a real good vibe on Cespedes.

 

(Maybe we should trade him. LOL)

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

I'm getting a real good vibe on Cespedes.

 

(Maybe we should trade him. LOL)

 

Since Breslow named the big three as guys he's counting on soon, Mayer looks like a keeper. Hearing him in interviews at Fenway's prospect party this week, Mayer's poise already makes him a team leader type... it's evident the way he comports himself that he's been talking the talk and backing it up for a long time in his short life.

[mvp 78]

Since Breslow named the big three as guys he's counting on soon, Mayer looks like a keeper. Hearing him in interviews at Fenway's prospect party this week, Mayer's poise already makes him a team leader type... it's evident the way he comports himself that he's been talking the talk and backing it up for a long time in his short life.

 

Disappointing that he lost a season because he tried to push though an injury and didn't know how to communicate it to the staff. I hope he has learned from this and there are no long term effects.

[moonslav59]

I know much of the Sox prospect talk has focused on the lack of clear good pitchers, but it's hard not to be optimistic about the future projected farm infusion.

 

Of course, some will not pan out as hoped, and some might become just role players or barely above replacement level back-ups, but I have to say, I'm impressed by the quality and quantity of prospects that have a decent chance at making a contribution.

 

We just graduated:

2023: Casas, EValdez, Murphy, Bernardino & kelly

2022: Bello, Crawford, Duran & Wink

2021" Whitlock & Houck

 

Estimated graduation years:

 

2024: Rafaela, Abreu, Slaten, Mata, Yorke, Fitts, Guerrero

(Walter, DHam, Rosier, Sogard, Lugo, Liu)

 

2025: Anthony, Mayer, Teel, Perales, Wikelman, Meidroth, Monegro, Hickey

(Jordan, Dobbins, E R-C, Bastardo, Hoppe, Troye, Gambrell, I Coffey, S Scott, Hagenman)

 

2026: Bleis, Castro, Song

(Paulino, Romero, Brannon, C Coffey, Penrod, Ravelo, K Campbell, Benitez, Olivares, Soto, Early, Mullins)

 

2027: Cespedes, Zanetello, Jo Garcia, A Anderson

(Alcantara, Arias, Yuten, Sena, Reimer, Paez, Cepeda, Judice, Encarnacion)

[mvp 78]

Walter, Hamilton, Rosier, Sogard, Lugo and Liu don't have a shot of making it this year. Lugo could have been Rule 5 picked the past two seasons and nobody is concerned with taking him even in the minor league phase.

 

Mata will probably be DFA'd or traded before the season starts. He just doesn't have the control to perform in MLB if they are going to keep Slaten.

 

Guerrero began to really struggle with his bb rate towards the end of last season. I don't think he gets called up at all this season without fixing that.

 

Fitts may be in line for an emergency call up, but none of us have seen him and he really is only a two pitch pitcher.

 

Yorke has been uninspiring the past 2 seasons. Without a 850-900 OPS and an injury on the MLB roster, there isn't a place for him unless he finds a new position.

 

The guys I think have a good chance of impacting the roster:

2024- Rafaela, Abreu, Slaten

2025 - Anthony, Mayer, Teel, Wikelman

2026 - Perales, Dobbins, Early

2027 - Bleis, Cespedes, Zanetello

[moonslav59]

Walter, Hamilton, Rosier, Sogard, Lugo and Liu don't have a shot of making it this year. Lugo could have been Rule 5 picked the past two seasons and nobody is concerned with taking him even in the minor league phase.

 

Mata will probably be DFA'd or traded before the season starts. He just doesn't have the control to perform in MLB if they are going to keep Slaten.

 

Guerrero began to really struggle with his bb rate towards the end of last season. I don't think he gets called up at all this season without fixing that.

 

Fitts may be in line for an emergency call up, but none of us have seen him and he really is only a two pitch pitcher.

 

Yorke has been uninspiring the past 2 seasons. Without a 850-900 OPS and an injury on the MLB roster, there isn't a place for him unless he finds a new position.

 

The guys I think have a good chance of impacting the roster:

2024- Rafaela, Abreu, Slaten

2025 - Anthony, Mayer, Teel, Wikelman

2026 - Perales, Dobbins, Early

2027 - Bleis, Cespedes, Zanetello

 

I listed some longshots and possible role players and depth.

 

There is a chance some of the players you did not list improve and make an impact. It might be a long shot.

 

Add the chances of Mata, Fitts and Guerrero, and I'd say there is a significant chance something good could happen in '24 or '25. (Maybe not over 50%, but maybe 33% to 50.

 

 

 

[mvp 78]

@BOSSportsGordo

.

@keithlaw has released his new Top 100 Prospect list, and the Red Sox have plenty of representation:

 

8. Marcelo Mayer

22. Roman Anthony

32. Ceddanne Rafaela

54. Kyle Teel

88. Miguel Bleis

[moonslav59]

@BOSSportsGordo

.

@keithlaw has released his new Top 100 Prospect list, and the Red Sox have plenty of representation:

 

8. Marcelo Mayer

22. Roman Anthony

32. Ceddanne Rafaela

54. Kyle Teel

88. Miguel Bleis

 

Pretty high on Mayer and Rafaela.

 

5 in the top 90 is real nice, although still no pitchers.

 

Law has been known to downgrade the Sox, so this is encouraging.

[Hugh2]

Pretty high on Mayer and Rafaela.

 

5 in the top 90 is real nice, although still no pitchers.

 

Law has been known to downgrade the Sox, so this is encouraging.

 

I think it was more other people moving in front of Mayer than him falling off. When you're talking about the top 25-50 guys, if you lose a season due to injury someone somewhere is going to show something that has to put them in front of you. If Mayer comes roaring back this year he could easily be in everyones top 10 again.

[Hugh2]

I find it interesting that all of a sudden Law is higher on the Sox system than everyone else.

[mvp 78]

I find it interesting that all of a sudden Law is higher on the Sox system than everyone else.

 

I find it interesting that everyone seems LOW on Teel.

 

If he comes out swinging this Spring, he'll jump up the rankings IMO.

[notin]

I find it interesting that everyone seems LOW on Teel.

 

If he comes out swinging this Spring, he'll jump up the rankings IMO.

 

I don’t think the issue is his bat, is it? Could it be his glove/position?

 

I mean it took the guy all of 75 games to make it to AA, and then he rocked a .945 OPS when he got there.

 

But do scouts think he can’t/won’t stick at catcher maybe?

[moonslav59]

I don’t think the issue is his bat, is it? Could it be his glove/position?

 

I mean it took the guy all of 75 games to make it to AA, and then he rocked a .945 OPS when he got there.

 

But do scouts think he can’t/won’t stick at catcher maybe?

 

They've ranked prospects higher with less games played, so maybe it is the position doubts.

 

If he hits like that to start 2024 and gets promoted to AAA, I'm thinking the mid season rankings will jump him higher.

 

Several rankings have Anthony higher and Rafaela lower.

 

I know every team has recent grads, too, but I'm really liking our young 7:

 

Casas

Bello

Anthony

Mayer

Teels

Rafaela

Bleis

 

(I'm also higher on Abreu than others seem to be.)

 

We have a bunch of other exciting ot promising players in the 24-28 range:

Devers

Crawford

Houck

Wink

Whitlock

Duran

Wong

EValdez

 

That's a pretty nice 14-15 group of young players and prospects.

 

We just need a couple aces to carry them to glory.

[moonslav59]

BA dropped our system ranking from 5th to 13th.

 

Not sure why.

[mvp 78]

BA dropped our system ranking from 5th to 13th.

 

Not sure why.

 

BA noted, “Boston’s system is a little hitter-heavy at this point.”

 

They have four positional prospects ranked on Baseball America’s Top 100 list. Shortstop Marcelo Mayer is No. 14, center fielder Roman Anthony is No. 21, catcher Kyle Teel is No. 62 and center fielder/shortstop Ceddanne Rafaela is No. 94.

 

It has just four pitchers ranked among its system’s top 20 prospects: righties Wikelman Gonzalez (No. 7), Luis Perales (No. 9), Richard Fitts (No. 11) and Yordanny Monegro (No. 18).

[mvp 78]

Also, thanks Bloom!

[Dipre]

BA noted, “Boston’s system is a little hitter-heavy at this point.”

 

They have four positional prospects ranked on Baseball America’s Top 100 list. Shortstop Marcelo Mayer is No. 14, center fielder Roman Anthony is No. 21, catcher Kyle Teel is No. 62 and center fielder/shortstop Ceddanne Rafaela is No. 94.

 

It has just four pitchers ranked among its system’s top 20 prospects: righties Wikelman Gonzalez (No. 7), Luis Perales (No. 9), Richard Fitts (No. 11) and Yordanny Monegro (No. 18).

 

That's dumb as f***. Prospect quality it's what's important, not positions.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

That's dumb as f***. Prospect quality it's what's important, not positions.

 

http://research.sabr.org/journals/is-pitching-75-of-baseball

[Dipre]

http://research.sabr.org/journals/is-pitching-75-of-baseball

 

What does that have to do with prospect rankings?

[moonslav59]

BA noted, “Boston’s system is a little hitter-heavy at this point.”

 

They have four positional prospects ranked on Baseball America’s Top 100 list. Shortstop Marcelo Mayer is No. 14, center fielder Roman Anthony is No. 21, catcher Kyle Teel is No. 62 and center fielder/shortstop Ceddanne Rafaela is No. 94.

 

It has just four pitchers ranked among its system’s top 20 prospects: righties Wikelman Gonzalez (No. 7), Luis Perales (No. 9), Richard Fitts (No. 11) and Yordanny Monegro (No. 18).

 

How many pitscher are ranked in their top 50 and 100, all teams?

[mvp 78]

That's dumb as f***. Prospect quality it's what's important, not positions.

 

I can see their point. If the Sox have a top 3 offensive group, but bottom 3 pitching group their rating should drop. They probably shouldn't have been 5th or whatever.

[mvp 78]

What does that have to do with prospect rankings?

 

If pitching is 75% of baseball, prospect team rankings should weigh pitchers more heavily than hitters.

[mvp 78]

How many pitscher are ranked in their top 50 and 100, all teams?

 

More than the Sox have, that's for sure.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

Good pitching usually beats overrated Sox hitting.

[moonslav59]

I can see their point. If the Sox have a top 3 offensive group, but bottom 3 pitching group their rating should drop. They probably shouldn't have been 5th or whatever.

 

So 2 tp pitchers and 2 top batter is much better than 0 top pitchers and 4 top batters?

 

Yes, if batters matter less, then they should not rank them so highly.

[moonslav59]

Good pitching usually beats overrated Sox hitting.

 

Many times we hit the better pitchers better than the no-name scubs.

[sk7326]

https://theathletic.com/5245693/2024/02/05/top-100-mlb-prospects-2024-keith-law/

 

blurbs

 

Mayer

 

Mayer was the fourth pick in the 2021 draft and No. 1 on my final draft board that year. His 2023 season didn’t go according to plan, as Boston’s top prospect hurt his shoulder in May, eventually going on the injured list for the impingement in early August, ending his season. When healthy, Mayer has a beautiful left-handed swing and projects to plus power in his peak years, with plenty of loft in his finish to put the ball over the fence, but he hasn’t been healthy all that often in his two full years in the minors, dealing with some wrist soreness in 2022, as well. He’s got the athleticism and first-step movement to be a plus defender at short, showing the ability to make difficult or distant plays, and needs to work more on consistency to become a 60 or better in the field. He’s a below-average runner and not likely to be a base-stealing threat in the majors. Mayer’s shoulder was already hurt when he got to Double A last year, so his dismal line there (.189/.254/.355, 26 percent K rate) is probably just noise. He needs a full season on the field now to show the huge upside that made him Boston’s first pick in 2021.

 

Anthony

 

Anthony boasts one of the best-looking swings in the minors, making a number of adjustments between when the Red Sox took him in the second round in 2022 and the start of 2023, turning him into one of the game’s top offensive prospects. Those adjustments included freeing up his hands and helping him keep his lead arm looser through contact for more power, while also using his lower half more to produce harder contact — something Boston cited when promoting him out of Low A despite a mediocre stat line of .228/.376/.316 at the level. He responded by hitting .301/.422/.565 the rest of the way between High A and a 10-game stint in Double A, so, hey, sorry I doubted you guys! He struck out around 28 percent of the time after the promotion but doesn’t chase often at all until he gets to two strikes, so the approach is sound, and the power is already showing up with more to come as he fills out. He’s playing more center now and Boston is working with him to improve his routes and his first-step quickness to give him a chance to remain there, with plus defense in a corner another potential outcome if he has to move. The Red Sox previously had the Greek God of Walks; maybe soon they’ll have Roman, God of Swings.

 

Rafaela

 

Rafaela’s one of the most fascinating prospects in the minors, a 5-9 infielder/center fielder from Curaçao who hits the ball harder than you’d expect from someone his size, plays some of the best center-field defense anywhere in professional baseball, and might swing at a butterfly if it flew within 10 feet of him. He started his pro career at shortstop and third base, but he’s too inconsistent for short and ended up moving to second, where he’s plus, and center, where he might be an 80, with easy routes and at least 70 speed to cover huge tracts of land. As a hitter, he* boasts great bat speed and can connect with a lot of pitches out of the strike zone, which worked well enough in the minors but was an area that major-league pitchers exploited during his 28-game MLB debut. He’ll probably never be much for the free pass, but if he just cuts down on the chase, he has the strength and the loft in his finish to at least hit for line-drive power — balls to the gaps that will become doubles and triples with his speed, plus probably 12-18 homers a year, although he did hit 22 last year across three levels. He’s not the sort of player I typically like with his undisciplined approach, but I think he has a chance to be the most valuable defensive outfielder in baseball, giving him a high floor and thus time to clean up the approach enough for the swing and speed to play.

 

Teel

 

Teel was the best catcher in the 2023 draft class, a three-year starter at UVA who probably would have gotten first-round money out of high school had the pandemic not wiped out his senior season in New Jersey. He’s an unusually good athlete and runner for a backstop, with excellent bat speed and a swing that produces line drives to the gaps with occasional over-the-fence power, although in college he did much more damage against right-handers, with softer contact versus southpaws. He was a solid-average defender in college, very active behind the plate with a plus arm, but was not good in Double A when Boston sent him there at the end of the season — quite likely tired from a long season but also showing he needs to simplify his movements back there to catch better quality stuff than he had to handle in Charlottesville. He could come into some pull-side power with a few small adjustments at the plate, depending on how Boston wants to develop him; a catcher who hits a ton of line drives and is at least an average receiver is good enough to make some All-Star teams, and he’d solve a problem the Red Sox have had for years at that position.

 

Bleis

 

It was a lost year for Bleis in 2023, as he hit .230/.282/.325 in his first taste of Low A, but hurt his shoulder after 31 games and underwent season-ending surgery. He’d had previous subluxations in that shoulder, so the hope is the surgery will clear that issue up permanently and let him get back to hitting. He’ll show five tools, with 60 raw power and 55 speed that would allow him to stay in center long-term if he doesn’t lose speed as he fills out, and he has great bat speed that’s undermined by a poor approach and some extra movement before he gets the barrel going toward the zone. He’s looking fastball too often, so he struggled with pitch and ball/strike recognition in 2022 and his brief stint in 2023, chasing secondary stuff out of the zone more than he should, but that’s the sort of thing that only improves with playing time. I wrote last year that I wouldn’t “be shocked or too dismayed if he struggles early in Low A as an inexperienced 19-year-old,” and that did happen, but he never got a chance to make adjustments. There’s still high-average/25-homer potential in a center fielder here. Depending on his shoulder strength — he’s supposed to be full go for spring training, at least — and how much time he needs to shake off the rust, however, any progress might not come until later in the year.

Edited February 6, 2024 by sk7326

[Dipre]

I can see their point. If the Sox have a top 3 offensive group, but bottom 3 pitching group their rating should drop. They probably shouldn't have been 5th or whatever.

 

No it should not. By your logic if the top 100 prospects are all hitters, then all farm systems should drop in rank