2024 Prospects

[mvp 78]

No it should not. By your logic if the top 100 prospects are all hitters, then all farm systems should drop in rank

 

By your logic ARE THEY?

[mvp 78]

So 2 tp pitchers and 2 top batter is much better than 0 top pitchers and 4 top batters?

 

Yes, if batters matter less, then they should not rank them so highly.

 

IDK, it's an overall team ranking, not just a ranking of grouped 100 prospects.

[mvp 78]

Many times we hit the better pitchers better than the no-name scubs.

 

Confirmation bias.

[mvp 78]

I'm sorry, but "might swing at a butterfly if it flew within 10 feet of him" is just a great line.

[moonslav59]

IDK, it's an overall team ranking, not just a ranking of grouped 100 prospects.

 

I know.

 

Did our non top 100 fall in value, that much?

Edited February 6, 2024 by moonslav59

[moonslav59]

Confirmation bias.

 

Could be.

 

We may not hit better vs bad pitchers, but it sure seems like we do better than expected vs the best pitchers and worse than expected vs the worst ones.

 

Isn't there some site that shows player or teams OPS vs each pitcher?

[mvp 78]

I know.

 

Did our non top 100 fall in value, that much?

 

No idea. I was just trying to find a reason for why they dropped. I wasn't completely stunned by it.

[moonslav59]

No idea. I was just trying to find a reason for why they dropped. I wasn't completely stunned by it.

 

Like MLB players, trading 5 two WAR players for 1 ten WAR players is rarely worth it, having top prospects should greatly outweigh the lower depths of a team's farm.

 

While our farm drops off a lot after our top 5, so do most teams after their top 2, 3 or 4. I don't think our next tier is all that bad or scarce: Cespedes, Abreu, Wikelman, Yorke, Perales, Joh Garcia, Zanetello, Castro and others.

 

Since the mid summer rankings, we also added #24 and Slaten, #11 Fitts, plus a few others. We did lose #15 Drohan, who was free-falling and Victor Santos, Nick Robertson & Ryan Fernandez, but I think our farm depth improved after 2023.

[mvp 78]

Like MLB players, trading 5 two WAR players for 1 ten WAR players is rarely worth it, having top prospects should greatly outweigh the lower depths of a team's farm.

 

While our farm drops off a lot after our top 5, so do most teams after their top 2, 3 or 4. I don't think our next tier is all that bad or scarce: Cespedes, Abreu, Wikelman, Yorke, Perales, Joh Garcia, Zanetello, Castro and others.

 

Since the mid summer rankings, we also added #24 and Slaten, #11 Fitts, plus a few others. We did lose #15 Drohan, who was free-falling and Victor Santos, Nick Robertson & Ryan Fernandez, but I think our farm depth improved after 2023.

 

I think our farm has a considerable dropoff. Maybe other teams don't dropoff as much as this farm currently does? The next tier may not be "all that bad" but it's not all that great either, which is most likely why they've pushed the org to 13 when you consider the lack of pitching talent as well.

 

After Bleis, I don't think there's another prospect I'd be upset over losing aside from Cespedes.

[moonslav59]

I think our farm has a considerable dropoff. Maybe other teams don't dropoff as much as this farm currently does? The next tier may not be "all that bad" but it's not all that great either, which is most likely why they've pushed the org to 13 when you consider the lack of pitching talent as well.

 

After Bleis, I don't think there's another prospect I'd be upset over losing aside from Cespedes.

 

I think that must be it.

 

I'm not sure how many prospects other have beyond their top 5-6, anyone would get upset over losing, too.

 

I get the pitching point, but I've never heard a rankings dropping someone over unbalanced positional prospects.

[mvp 78]

I think that must be it.

 

I'm not sure how many prospects other have beyond their top 5-6, anyone would get upset over losing, too.

 

I get the pitching point, but I've never heard a rankings dropping someone over unbalanced positional prospects.

 

These rankings go up and down all the time. They are fairly unscientific.

 

Cardinals have 5 top 100 prospects and are ranked 20th, FYI.

[moonslav59]

These rankings go up and down all the time. They are fairly unscientific.

 

Cardinals have 5 top 100 prospects and are ranked 20th, FYI.

 

When you look at the success rate of top 100 prospects, yes, it seems pretty unscientific, but my guess is the success rate of the next 100 or two is even more hit-or-miss. I'd think they would place way more weight to the top 100, 150 or 200. (Maybe we have nobody from 88 to 150 or more.)

[sk7326]

That's dumb as f***. Prospect quality it's what's important, not positions.

 

Each of the big evaluators are going to have their own areas of emphasis vis a vis floor and ceiling. If you assume a fairly straightforward tiering of guys ... star-starter-bench ... the top orgs probably have the starter section pretty well stocked. The Sox being lower in the number of guys who project as everyday guys being upper middle of the back seems plausible. What holds Boston back is not so much the lack of balance per se - but that the pitching crop (as of now) is providing almost no top/mid rotation pitching which I think would be the equivalent of a "everyday regular" for a position player.

[moonslav59]

I think I'm a bit more high on Cespedes and Abreu than others, but I can certainly see how I might be wrong.

 

Our top 5 look pretty nice.

 

Rafaela might be the one most likely to fizzle, but if the guy can hit despite his approach, he could end up being the best. His D is that great!

 

Bleis dipped due to injury, and was highly regarded, before it.

 

Mayer has dealt with injury, so it's hard to get a read, but he was very highly ranked beforehand.

 

To me, Teel and Anthony look most like "can't miss," but of course, any prospect can "miss."

 

Once you get past the 5 plus Cespedes and Abreu, nobody looks all that great, although some could jump, a lot, this year.

 

This could be the make or break season for Yorke. He is viewed as ML ready, but just might not be good enough to get the call, ahead of EValdez or even DHam.

 

Wikelman and Perales might end up as decent pen arms, but they need to get improve or get promoted to AAA, first.

 

I don't know much about Fitts, and he's already 24, but he may impress in 2024.

 

Hickey is getting to the age, where he needs to show more and be decent at a position.

 

Some young prospects could jump or fall, this year:

17: Asencio

18: Zanetello, A Anderson, Arias

19: Joh Garcia, M Alcantara, Brannon, Yuten, E Soto, F Encarnacion

20: Castro, Romero, E R-C, Paez, Ravelo

21: Monegro, Paulino. Jordan, K Campbell. C Early

22: Meidroth, BastardoSena. Riemer, Judice

[sk7326]

If the system had even one guy with a rotation-caliber projection things would look a lot better. Perales and Gonzalez at least have some mid-rotation upside, but they have to reach it.

 

With Rafaela the question is whether he can hit enough. Can he be a .310 OBP guy with his ability to drive the ball ... combine that with his defense (particularly at CF) and you have a solid starter at least. Ultimately for him it comes down to whether he can lay off pitches outside the zone at all. He has a good swing - he just has to actually swing at things he can hit.

Edited February 6, 2024 by sk7326

[moonslav59]

If the system had even one guy with a rotation-caliber projection things would look a lot better. Perales and Gonzalez at least have some mid-rotation upside, but they have to reach it.

 

With Rafaela the question is whether he can hit enough. Can he be a .310 OBP guy with his ability to drive the ball ... combine that with his defense (particularly at CF) and you have a solid starter at least. Ultimately for him it comes down to whether he can lay off pitches outside the zone at all. He has a good swing - he just has to actually swing at things he can hit.

 

It would be nice for some pitcher in our system to just appear "out of nowhere," but I can't even see hardly any very far away pitchers with top of rotation promise. I know it's too early on many of the real young ones, but it really looks barren.

 

For all the grief DD got for "emptying the farm" or "trading everyone away," one can view the group of young pitchers on the MLB staff, already as the best group of 3-4 homegrown pitchers we've seen in perhaps a decade.

 

Bello

Crawford

Houck

(somewhat hopefuls: Murphy & Walter)

 

Bloom did okay adding a few to the big club, but hardly any decent pitching prospects.

 

Winckowski

Whitlock

Schreiber (no so young, anymore)

(somewhat hopeful) Kelly

 

Our top prospects by soxprospects.com rankings:

7. Perales- DD

9. Wikelman- DD

11. Fitts- Brez

20. Monegro- Bloom (Wow, that's the best he left for Brez!)

23. Dobbins- Bloom

24. Slated- Brez

25. E R-C- Bloom

26. Guerreo- Bloom

27. Bastardo- DD

28. Mata- DD

29. Hoppe- Bloom

32. Walter- DD

33. Troye, 34 Rogers, 36 Gambrell, 39 Paez, 45 I Coffey, 49 J Riemer- Bloom

56. E Soto, 57 C Early, 60. H M ullins.

38. Penrod, 47 F Cepeda, 48. R Sena, 53 Zeferjahn, 55 CJ Liu- DD

50. H Olivarez, 58 N Judice

 

[mvp 78]

If the system had even one guy with a rotation-caliber projection things would look a lot better. Perales and Gonzalez at least have some mid-rotation upside, but they have to reach it.

 

With Rafaela the question is whether he can hit enough. Can he be a .310 OBP guy with his ability to drive the ball ... combine that with his defense (particularly at CF) and you have a solid starter at least. Ultimately for him it comes down to whether he can lay off pitches outside the zone at all. He has a good swing - he just has to actually swing at things he can hit.

 

I agree. Most likely, Perales or Gonzalez winds up in the pen and has decent value there. I'm not sure either of them will ever be as good as Bello is since their bb rates are way too high. We'll see if they can get something figured out this year, otherwise I'm just going to not be all that interest in either going forward.

[mvp 78]

It would be nice for some pitcher in our system to just appear "out of nowhere," but I can't even see hardly any very far away pitchers with top of rotation promise. I know it's too early on many of the real young ones, but it really looks barren.

 

For all the grief DD got for "emptying the farm" or "trading everyone away," one can view the group of young pitchers on the MLB staff, already as the best group of 3-4 homegrown pitchers we've seen in perhaps a decade.

 

Bello

Crawford

Houck

(somewhat hopefuls: Murphy & Walter)

 

Murphy and Walter were ineligible to be traded by DD as they were drafted the year he was fired. Crawford barely reached AA before DD was gone and was a middling prospect at the time. Houck was an afterthought going into 2020 and had already be pushed into a bullpen role. In 2019, Bello had a 5.43 ERA in Low A and was ranked outside the team's top 20 for most of the year.

 

It's not like DD was looking at these guys and thinking "boy, these are the pitchers I need to hold onto." The most interesting pitchers when DD was fired were Mata, Groome and Song.

[moonslav59]

Murphy and Walter were ineligible to be traded by DD as they were drafted the year he was fired. Crawford barely reached AA before DD was gone and was a middling prospect at the time. Houck was an afterthought going into 2020 and had already be pushed into a bullpen role. In 2019, Bello had a 5.43 ERA in Low A and was ranked outside the team's top 20 for most of the year.

 

It's not like DD was looking at these guys and thinking "boy, these are the pitchers I need to hold onto." The most interesting pitchers when DD was fired were Mata, Groome and Song.

 

Yes, indeed, but the 3 from his time are better than any 3 from Ben or Bloom, for whatever reason- luck or otherwise.

 

I'm not sure how far you have to go back into Theo's era to get to 3 better... maybe 2008 (Buch, Masterson & Bowden?) or for sure 2006 (Lester, Papelbon, Buch.)

 

[mvp 78]

Yes, indeed, but the 3 from his time are better than any 3 from Ben or Bloom, for whatever reason- luck or otherwise.

 

I'm not sure how far you have to go back into Theo's era to get to 3 better... maybe 2008 (Buch, Masterson & Bowden?) or for sure 2006 (Lester, Papelbon, Buch.)

 

 

DD left in '19, Crawford and Bello didn't have value to BOS until 3 years later. Hard to fault Bloom for not being able to draft or sign players prior to '19.

 

Ben Cherington was bad at drafting and got the team to lose IFA signings. It was a large part of the reason the Sox went into a funk after 2018. Depending on how this current group of prospects turn out, Bloom may end up with a better legacy even without a ring.

[moonslav59]

DD left in '19, Crawford and Bello didn't have value to BOS until 3 years later. Hard to fault Bloom for not being able to draft or sign players prior to '19.

 

Ben Cherington was bad at drafting and got the team to lose IFA signings. It was a large part of the reason the Sox went into a funk after 2018. Depending on how this current group of prospects turn out, Bloom may end up with a better legacy even without a ring.

 

I'm not trying to credit or blame the GMs. I think you are reading that into my statement.

 

I'm just saying, as bad as our farm looks for pitchers, we did just see the best 3 pitcher combination join the team in over 10 year. It's still not enough, but I do think it's true.

 

Forget the GM part, although I do think it's notable.

 

Name the last time a better 3 homegrown pitcher combo was called up within a 2-3 year period than Bello, Crawford and Houck.

 

Bloom's guys, Wink & Whitlock are not technically fully homegrown products. If you count them and make a group of 5, who graduated in the last 3 years, it's been a while, right?

[mvp 78]

Barnes/Workman/ERod 13-14

Buch/Masterson/Bard 08-09

Paplebon/Lester/Delcarmen 05-06

 

The Sox really haven't been able to push through much high level pitching talent at all. The best time for their system was 04-09 as it had a good balance of hitting and pitching. Players were also graduating each year at a relatively high level. After that, you had the AGon trade, Lars Andersen crashing, Westmoreland, Dodgers trade prospects that didn't pan out, Henry Owens flame out and Ben's bad drafting.

[moonslav59]

Barnes/Workman/ERod 13-14

Buch/Masterson/Bard 08-09

Paplebon/Lester/Delcarmen 05-06

 

The Sox really haven't been able to push through much high level pitching talent at all. The best time for their system was 04-09 as it had a good balance of hitting and pitching. Players were also graduating each year at a relatively high level. After that, you had the AGon trade, Lars Andersen crashing, Westmoreland, Dodgers trade prospects that didn't pan out, Henry Owens flame out and Ben's bad drafting.

 

I'm not sure ERod was is "homegrown," but those 3 do rival, if not beat out, Bello, Crawford and Houck.

 

ERod pitched 37 innings w POR and 48 w PAW, before his call-up. If you count him, then we can safely say we have the best 3-5 homegrown pitchers (now counting Whitlock & Winck, if ERod counts) in 7-8 years.

 

Again, I'm not bragging on the greatness of these guys, but it is noteworthy that as bad as our fram looks, now, it did just produce the best we've seen in 8 years or so. If you don't count ERod, Wink & Whitlock, we might be able to say 10+ years.

[notin]

Barnes/Workman/ERod 13-14

Buch/Masterson/Bard 08-09

Paplebon/Lester/Delcarmen 05-06

 

The Sox really haven't been able to push through much high level pitching talent at all. The best time for their system was 04-09 as it had a good balance of hitting and pitching. Players were also graduating each year at a relatively high level. After that, you had the AGon trade, Lars Andersen crashing, Westmoreland, Dodgers trade prospects that didn't pan out, Henry Owens flame out and Ben's bad drafting.

 

Ben’s drafting was historically bad. In 4 seasons, he drafted and signed only two players who would be worth more than 2.3 fWAR…

[moonslav59]

DD left in '19, Crawford and Bello didn't have value to BOS until 3 years later. Hard to fault Bloom for not being able to draft or sign players prior to '19.

 

Ben Cherington was bad at drafting and got the team to lose IFA signings. It was a large part of the reason the Sox went into a funk after 2018. Depending on how this current group of prospects turn out, Bloom may end up with a better legacy even without a ring.

 

The issue with IFA signings went beyond one lost season due to penalties. While many of Ben's prospects, including some IFA ones were traded for key pieces, there really was a long gap in IFA additions that made any impact for the Sox. Devers was called up in '17 and then Bello in late '22. (That's on Ben & DD)

 

Major IFA Signings:

'13-'14 Devers (Called up before Bloom)

'14-'15 Moncada & Espinoza (traded by DD) + Rusney

'15-'16 Mata (out of options and 1st chance for MLB in '24)

Lost Season (Hector Velazquez)

'17-'18 Bello & Rafaela

'18-'19 Wikelman

'19-'20 Perales, Castro, Monegro

'21 Bleis

[sk7326]

Law ranks the Red Sox at #8

 

The Red Sox’s system had a hell of a 2023, even with their top guy (Marcelo Mayer, No. 8) getting hurt again. Roman Anthony (No. 22) is one of the big development success stories in all of the minors, with a remade swing that’s one of the best in the minors and the team’s recognition that he was too good for Low A even when he wasn’t performing stat-wise. Their 2023 draft worked out better than they might have hoped, with Kyle Teel (No. 54) falling to their first pick and then the very high-upside athlete Nazzan Zanetello coming with their second pick. The big knock I had last year is still here, though — they do not have pitching, with nobody in full-season ball I’d project as a major-league starter, and at some point that will have to change via trade or a different approach in the draft.

[moonslav59]

Law ranks the Red Sox at #8

 

Coming from Law, this is encouraging.

 

The lack of quality SP'ers on the farm has been well documented and discussed, here. No doubt, we have to fix this problem- like yesterday! He made a good point about trades, because even if we did fix the problem yesterday, results won't be realized for several more years. The change in drafting and development practices is highly important, but won't fix things for 3-6 years.

 

We've talked about our past successes with trading for aces and other quality SP'ers, going back to Pedro, and that does seem like a doable idea, especially when we have such a strong farm to trade from.

 

Trades for mid rotation starters can help, too. Waiver wire, Rule 5 and other ways to add pitchers can strike gold, from time to time, but should never be something to rely on.

 

As bad as we have done, since DD's trades for Sale and Nate, here are some pitchers we added in other ways than by draft or IFA signing:

 

Whitlock (Rule 5)

Pivetta (and Seabold for Workman & Hembree)

Winckowski, Gambrell & de la Rosa for Beni

I Campbell for Urias

Fitts, Weissert & Judice for Dugo

Schreiber (Waivers)

Bernardino (Waivers)

Slaten (Rule 5)

Kelly (MiLFA)

Many minor league additions

 

 

[sk7326]

ESPN (Kiley McDaniel) Sox Prospect Rankings - 9th in depth (defined by players with at least some sort of rosterable projection)

 

1. Roman Anthony, RF, 55 FV (23rd on the Top 100)

2. Marcelo Mayer, SS, 55 FV (28)

3. Kyle Teel, C, 50 FV (61)

4. Ceddanne Rafaela, CF, 45+ FV (152)

5. Wilyer Abreu, RF, 45+ FV (160)

6. Miguel Bleis, CF, 45 FV

7. Nazzan Zanetello, SS, 45 FV

8. Blaze Jordan, 1B, 45 FV

9. Nick Yorke, 2B, 45 FV

10. Yoeilin Cespedes, SS, 45 FV

11. Mikey Romero, SS, 45 FV

12. Wikelman Gonzalez, RHP, 45 FV

13. Luis Perales, RHP, 45 FV

14. Richard Fitts, RHP, 40+ FV

15. Franklin Arias, SS, 40 FV

16. Brooks Brannon, C, 40 FV

17. Chase Meidroth, 2B, 40 FV

18. Nathan Hickey, C, 40 FV

19. David Hamilton, SS, 40 FV

20. Dalton Rogers, LHP, 40 FV

21. Johanfran Garcia, C, 40 FV

22. Antonio Anderson, SS, 40 FV

23. Yordanny Monegro, RHP, 40 FV

24. Brandon Walter, LHP, 40 FV

25. Luis Guerrero, RHP, 40 FV

26. Brainer Bonaci, SS, 40 FV

27. Angel Bastardo, LHP, 40 FV

28. Kristian Campbell, 2B, 40 FV

29. Justin Riemer, SS, 40 FV

30. Justin Slaten, RHP, 40 FV

31. Eddinson Paulino, 3B, 40 FV

32. Allan Castro, CF, 40 FV

33. Bryan Mata, RHP, 40 FV

34. Isaac Coffey, RHP, 40 FV

 

Rafaela is the kind of player I have trouble evaluating, but I think everyone else has trouble with him as well. He has some very clear standout abilities as an easy plus runner and defender in center field (and maybe some other positions, too). He also has above-average bat-to-ball ability, 20ish homer upside and has posted those kinds of numbers in the minors, so he seems to have a really high floor and ceiling. The issue is that the way he does it at the plate -- with lots of chase at 40%, roughly 15% more than average -- means that the whole offensive house of cards could come crashing down at higher levels. He hit really well at Triple-A last year but then wasn't good in a 28-game big league sample. So, it would be easy to write him off as the type of player who won't reach his upside and will just be a solid role player -- but if he does in the big leagues this year what he has done at every level in the minors, he'll be getting Rookie of the Year buzz. Michael Harris' rookie year (35% chase rate in the big leagues) had some of these questions, then he lowered that figure to 29% in 2023, a sustainable number, proving it can be done. I'm hedging here by keeping Rafaela just off of the Top 100 but ranked in between the bad outcome (a 45 FV defensive specialist with some tools, in the 200-300 area of the overall list) and good ones (a 55 FV expected ROY front-runner, ranking 20-45 on the Top 100).

 

2024 impact: Abreu

Above 40 FV breakout: Cespedes

40 FV breakout: Brannon

 

[moonslav59]

ESPN (Kiley McDaniel) Sox Prospect Rankings - 9th in depth (defined by players with at least some sort of rosterable projection)

 

It's good to know someone else thinks we have decent (not great) depth beyond the top 4-5.

 

Good to see Abreu up so high. He could be a real eye-opener.

 

I've very high on Cespedes breaking out, this year.

 

It's weird how so many are still so high on Jordan. I'm not.

 

Our top pitchers are still way down the list, and maybe Fitts, a Brez addition passes Wikelman & Perales, this year.

 

12. Wikelman

13. Perales

14. Fitts

20. Rogers

23. Monegro

24. Walter

27. Bastardo

30, Slaten

33. Mata

34. I Coffey

 

 

[mvp 78]

The thing with Blaze is that he'll be 21 this year. He's very young as he was drafted as a 17 year old. He still has time to develop the monster power people anticipated. Best fit for him going forward may be LF though. He had an 899 OPS vs LHP in AA. I'm not super high on him, but he still has a ceiling he can get to.