2024 Prospects

[moonslav59]

The thing with Blaze is that he'll be 21 this year. He's very young as he was drafted as a 17 year old. He still has time to develop the monster power people anticipated. Best fit for him going forward may be LF though. He had an 899 OPS vs LHP in AA. I'm not super high on him, but he still has a ceiling he can get to.

 

All good points, and I have not given up on him. I just like quite a few propsects better.

[mvp 78]

All good points, and I have not given up on him. I just like quite a few propsects better.

 

I agree, it's just why some evaluators may have him higher than the prospects we like. It just seems like an impossible task for someone to have to rank every 40 FV prospect from every team. Even if that's your full time job, that's a herculean task.

 

Some of the quibbles with Kiley:

 

Castro is LOW

I'd have Garcia higher

Arias at 15???

Brannon at 16 ahead of Garcia???

[moonslav59]

I agree, it's just why some evaluators may have him higher than the prospects we like. It just seems like an impossible task for someone to have to rank every 40 FV prospect from every team. Even if that's your full time job, that's a herculean task.

 

Some of the quibbles with Kiley:

 

Castro is LOW

I'd have Garcia higher

Arias at 15???

Brannon at 16 ahead of Garcia???

 

Yes, once you get past the top 4-5 prospects, there is a lot of room for moving prospects up or down.

 

I agree with the 4 you mentioned.

 

I would not have Hamilton as high as 19th.

 

The more I think about it, the more I like Abreu 5th.

[moonslav59]

51 Casas

48 Bello

45 Mayer

42 Anthony

34 Duran

24 Crawford

22 Bleis

20 Teel

17 Rafaela

17 Grissom

13 Yorke

9 Wink

8 E Valdez & Abreu

7 Cespedes

6 Wikelman

4 Walter, Romero, Zanetello & Perales

3 Bernardino, Meirdroth, Alcantara

2 Paulino, Jordan, Bastardo, Monegro, Fitts, Brannon, Anderson, Jo Garcia, Jimenez, I Campbell, Murphy, DHam, Bonaci, Hickey, Dobbins, Castro

1 Guerrero, Wong, Rogers, Lugo, Kavadas, E R-C, F Valdez, Slaten, Kelly, K Campbell, Weissert, Mata, Broadway, Chacon, G Gambrell, Song, Liu, Politi, Marcano, McDonough, Binelas, Ferguson, Rosier, Lira, F Encarnacion, Dearden, J Encarnacion, C Coffey, R Fernandez

 

 

 

 

Edited February 12, 2024 by moonslav59

[mvp 78]

Yes, once you get past the top 4-5 prospects, there is a lot of room for moving prospects up or down.

 

I agree with the 4 you mentioned.

 

I would not have Hamilton as high as 19th.

 

The more I think about it, the more I like Abreu 5th.

 

I think Abreu at 5 is high, but he showed a lot in his big league debut. Who knows? Maybe he continues to impress?

 

Hamilton is probably about right because of his success at AAA and his overall running game. He probably could settle in as a bench spot somewhere in MLB. He seems to have a high floor because of that one tool.

[mvp 78]

@tylermilliken_

.

@keithlaw with some serious praise for Yoeilin Cespedes in his Red Sox farm system rankings:

 

“Cespedes might be their next superstar hitting prospect if what we saw in the DSL carries over to the US.”

 

Some view him as the best bat since Devers to come through the DSL.

[moonslav59]

I think Abreu at 5 is high, but he showed a lot in his big league debut. Who knows? Maybe he continues to impress?

 

Hamilton is probably about right because of his success at AAA and his overall running game. He probably could settle in as a bench spot somewhere in MLB. He seems to have a high floor because of that one tool.

 

Too bad his D is unimpressive.

[Larry Cook]

I agree, it's just why some evaluators may have him higher than the prospects we like. It just seems like an impossible task for someone to have to rank every 40 FV prospect from every team. Even if that's your full time job, that's a herculean task.

 

Some of the quibbles with Kiley:

 

Castro is LOW

I'd have Garcia higher

Arias at 15???

Brannon at 16 ahead of Garcia???

 

I have been lucky enough to see A Castro and Brannon live.

 

I like both as hitters and think they have above bat to ball skills. (Keep in mind, small sample size) I did not see anything that makes me think they are above average defensively (again small sample size)

 

A Castro is more of a line drive hitter. Brannon has some power, but is injured more than Chris sale.

[moonslav59]

@tylermilliken_

.

@keithlaw with some serious praise for Yoeilin Cespedes in his Red Sox farm system rankings:

 

“Cespedes might be their next superstar hitting prospect if what we saw in the DSL carries over to the US.”

 

Some view him as the best bat since Devers to come through the DSL.

 

He's copying what I said about Cespedes as maybe being the best since Devers.

[mvp 78]

Too bad his D is unimpressive.

 

If he was a versatile defender, he'd be closer to a top 10 guy.

[moonslav59]

If he was a versatile defender, he'd be closer to a top 10 guy.

 

...and might be in the majors, by now.

[mvp 78]

I have been lucky enough to see A Castro and Brannon live.

 

I like both as hitters and think they have above bat to ball skills. (Keep in mind, small sample size) I did not see anything that makes me think they are above average defensively (again small sample size)

 

A Castro is more of a line drive hitter. Brannon has some power, but is injured more than Chris sale.

 

I've heard that Brannon has "light tower power" but that his defense is still a work in progress. Seems like the other catchers just passed him by.

 

I'm not sure I've even seen any highlights of Castro, but he's a guy that some evaluators are getting high on. We'll see how he develops this year.

[mvp 78]

He's copying what I said about Cespedes as maybe being the best since Devers.

 

Shake him down for some $$$.

[sk7326]

The Athletic/Keith Law's list https://theathletic.com/5261710/2024/02/12/red-sox-2024-top-prospects-keith-law/ ... Law goes to 20

 

1. Marcelo Mayer, SS

2. Roman Anthony, OF/RF

3. Ceddane Rafaela, OF/2B

4. Kyle Teel, C

5. Miguel Bleis, OF

 

6. Wilyer Abreu, OF

Abreu had a weird 2022 season, walking and striking out at very high rates so that 46 percent of his plate appearances ended in one or the other, and without a ton of other production as a result. His approach ticked up in 2023 as he moved to Triple A — the automatic ball-strike system (ABS) may have helped, although scouts saw a real difference here — and he got to way more power, enough that he’s probably going to be a regular for someone in an outfield corner. He’s got a cannon of an arm for right, and while I think he’s overstretched in center, if he plays there he might end up a 4-WAR player.

 

7. Mikey Romero, SS - lost year. Law likes his approach, but has to stay healthy and show more pop.

 

8. Yoelin Cespedes, SS

Signed in January 2023 for $1.4 million, Cespedes mashed in the Dominican Summer League with very hard contact, hitting .346/.392/.560 in 46 games with just an 11.4 percent strikeout rate. He did swing and miss some, which isn’t surprising for a 17-year-old in the DSL. He’s a shortstop with a good chance to stay there, although his body could push him to second or third in time, as he’s athletic but not a runner and may not hold his range as he fills out.

 

9. Nick Yorke, 2B

Yorke was Boston’s first-rounder in 2020, a pick most other teams derided at the time, and then he blew up in 2021 to make my top 100. He flopped in 2022, and then had a season in 2023 that sits squarely in the middle of the previous two years and probably represents something like his true talent level, hitting .268/.350/.435 in Double A with below-average defense at second. He does have a really pretty right-handed swing and good feel for the barrel within the strike zone, so it’s surprising that he struck out as much as he did (24 percent) last year, although Boston has tried to work with him to lower his hands so he can get to more fastballs up and perhaps drive the ball more consistently. A small tradeoff of contact for power would help him, as he’s never likely to be more than an average defender at second .... I think he’s a soft regular, probably not an everyday player for a contender, while he doesn’t offer utility infielder value since he can’t play on the left side.

 

10. Nazzan Zanatello, SS

Zanetello was Boston’s second pick in 2023, a perfect contrast to the polished college player they took in the first round in Teel. Zanetello was one of the best pure athletes in the class, with fast-twitch actions on defense and really quick hands at the plate, showing great bat speed if not the feel for the barrel yet. He’s a potential plus defender at short with plenty of arm, so there’s a ton of upside if the bat develops. He’s a long way away as a hitter, though, needing to work on pitch recognition and timing.

 

11. Wikelman Gonzalez, RHP

Gonzalez is 95-98 mph from a low three-quarter arm slot and gets a ton of ride and late hop on the fastball, while his changeup is fringy at 89-90 but gets misses because of the separation between the two. He punched out 168 batters last year, ranking sixth among all minor-league pitchers, but also walked 14.6 percent of the batters he faced because he doesn’t repeat the delivery at all. He also needs to either tighten up his curveball or, my pick, switch to a slider or cutter, since his arm slot and release point look way better suited to that. He has the build to start and holds his velocity, so I’d keep developing him that way, although this is 35 command and it’s an uphill battle to get him to a level that keeps him in the rotation.

 

12. Luis Perales, RHP

Perales might have the best arm in the system, with a fastball up to 98 mph with good ride and vertical break along with a plus slider, but he’s got a rough delivery that he doesn’t repeat and he is about 90 percent likely to end up in the bullpen. He added a cutter last year to try to give him another weapon against left-handed batters as he’s struggled with the changeup but still showed a platoon split, with a 16 percent walk rate versus lefties. He should continue to start for developmental reasons but I could see him blowing 100 out of the bullpen with a 60 or 70 slider in short bursts.

 

13. Yordanny Monegro, RHP

Monegro doesn’t have the pure stuff of Perales or Gonzalez, so his upside is lower, but he had more success as a starter last year and at least offers the body and delivery to end up in that role. He works with three pitches, with a low-90s fastball that has a little cut and a curveball that was insanely effective last year, with lefties whiffing on it more than two-thirds of the time they swung. It doesn’t look or grade out as that kind of pitch, although at some point the hitters just tell you if it’s a good pitch or not. He has a slider that also missed a ton of bats in Low A and might end up the better breaking ball in the end, while he almost never used his changeup last year. He could be a back-end starter with some adjustments the Red Sox are trying to help him make with his grips on the fastball and curve.

 

14. Johanfran Garcia, C

García raked in the complex league last year, a bat-over-glove catcher who has plenty of arm but has work to do on receiving, blocking, and framing. The bat’s real, as he’s strong and has a swing geared to drive the ball in the air to all fields. If you think he can catch, he’s a potential star because of the offensive upside. The risk is that there isn’t really another position for him besides first base, and the offensive bar there is much higher.

 

15. Blaze Jordan, 3B/iB

Jordan hits the ball a mile in BP, but in games his bat is in and out of the zone so fast and on such a low plane that he doesn’t hit for that kind of power in games, with a lot of groundballs and popups because he doesn’t truly square the ball up. He’s lost a good bit of weight to try to gain some agility in the field, although third base is still unlikely. Double-A pitchers really exploited his pitch recognition issues, as he doesn’t pick up non-fastballs well and would expand the zone to chase them. There’s a path here for him to become a high-contact first baseman who hits enough doubles to play regularly, but the odds are against it.

 

16. Richard Fitts, RHP

One of the three pitchers Boston acquired from the Yankees for Alex Verdugo, Fitts quietly ended up in the top 10 among all minor-league pitchers in strikeouts with 163, with a solid year as a 23-year-old starter in Double A. It was more command and feel to pitch than stuff, as it’s a light 91-96 mph without a plus secondary, and he gave up 22 homers in 151 innings because hitters do make hard contact when they square it up. The command and control are something, though, so he could pick up with a move to relief, or perhaps the Red Sox find a way to boost his velocity or improve his slider or changeup and make him a back-end guy.

 

17. Edinson Paulino, SS/2B/3B

Paulino was my sleeper for the Red Sox’s system last year, but he didn’t take much of a step forward, moving up the ladder to High A but seeing his offense dip slightly across the board. I like his approach at the plate and still think he’s going to grow into some more pop, maybe 15-18 homers with a bunch of doubles, and could end up at short or second, with the speed to even move to center if need be. He’ll be just 21 this year, so he could easily take that step in 2024, but 2023 was disappointing.

 

18. Brandon Walter, LHP

The pride of Delaware — the state and the university — Walter used to be up to 97 mph but lost some velocity during the pandemic layoff, averaging around 92 in his big-league stint last year. His arm slot and big extension make him very hard on left-handed hitters, but he doesn’t have the third pitch or the repeatability to start.

 

19. Chase Meidroth, 3B/2B

Meidroth has a super-short swing that produces high contact rates and lets him wait on pitches enough that he’s shown strong walk rates up through Double A, but it doesn’t produce any power or particularly hard contact. He’s played third, second, and short in the minors but isn’t a shortstop and isn’t great at either of the other spots, lacking the arm for the left side. The contact skill will get him to the majors, but I’m not sure what the role would be given his limitations.

 

20. Bryan Mata, LHP

It was truly a lost year for Mata, who missed 2021 after Tommy John surgery and then missed four months of 2023 with right shoulder inflammation. He was awful when he did pitch, with 30 walks in 27 innings in Triple A and a 6.33 ERA, although he was still mid-90s with a 55 changeup. He’s always had a violent delivery, so the injuries aren’t surprising, per se, but he wasn’t even healthy enough for Boston to move him to the bullpen and bring him up last year.

 

Other notables

 

- Nathan Hickey is a potential backup catcher with power and patience but below-average receiving and throwing, with a career caught-stealing rate of just 10 percent in the minors.

- I thought the Sox reached a bit for shortstop Antonio Anderson in the third round last year, as the Georgia high school product had trouble hitting decent offspeed stuff as an amateur and his swing needed some work to shorten it up. He struck out a third of the time in his 46 PA pro debut.

- I was pretty high on Brainer Bonaci coming out of the 2023 season, but he was placed on the restricted list in October for a violation of the league’s domestic violence, sexual assault, and child abuse policy.

 

2024 Impact - Rafaela and Abreu

The Fallen - Matthew Lugo

Sleeper - Cespedes

[mvp 78]

"Abreu had a weird 2022 season, walking and striking out at very high rates so that 46 percent of his plate appearances ended in one or the other, and without a ton of other production as a result. His approach ticked up in 2023 as he moved to Triple A — the automatic ball-strike system (ABS) may have helped, although scouts saw a real difference here — and he got to way more power, enough that he’s probably going to be a regular for someone in an outfield corner. He’s got a cannon of an arm for right, and while I think he’s overstretched in center, if he plays there he might end up a 4-WAR player."

 

The guys on the SoxProspects podcast have said as much from time to time about certain players. Umpiring at the lower levels is so awful that it really hurts players with good batting eye. A player like Abreu may take a bunch of called third strikes that would be balls with ABS.

[mvp 78]

If we're lumping Wikelman, Perales and Monegro that close together, it's bad news for Perales. It's not the first time I've heard him called a bullpen arm. That bb rate is bad. Him and Wikelman have work to do this year.

[moonslav59]

If we're lumping Wikelman, Perales and Monegro that close together, it's bad news for Perales. It's not the first time I've heard him called a bullpen arm. That bb rate is bad. Him and Wikelman have work to do this year.

 

The sad thing is, we might be lucky to get just two to three decent pen arms out of our entire farm system of pitchers.

 

Maybe we get lucky and get a 4th starter and 3 decent RP'ers. That's probably the farm ceiling.

[mvp 78]

The sad thing is, we might be lucky to get just two to three decent pen arms out of our entire farm system of pitchers.

 

Maybe we get lucky and get a 4th starter and 3 decent RP'ers. That's probably the farm ceiling.

 

Guys that could be that starter: Fitts, Monegro, Paez, Early

Decent bullpen arms: Wikelman, Perales, Guerrero, Hoppe, Liu

[moonslav59]

Guys that could be that starter: Fitts, Monegro, Paez, Early

Decent bullpen arms: Wikelman, Perales, Guerrero, Hoppe, Liu

 

Good choices.

 

I'd add Slaten to the RP group.

 

My Longer shots: Mata, E R-C & maybe Troye.

 

My Longer shots to start? Gambrell, Walter, I Coffey. (I think Murphy graduated.)

[Larry Cook]

Good choices.

 

I'd add Slaten to the RP group.

 

My Longer shots: Mata, E R-C & maybe Troye.

 

My Longer shots to start? Gambrell, Walter, I Coffey. (I think Murphy graduated.)

 

Maybe Peaz takes a leap this year, but his ceiling is bullpen arm to me.

[moonslav59]

Maybe Peaz takes a leap this year, but his ceiling is bullpen arm to me.

 

I'd say we have about 10-15 pitchers that could "take a leap," this year. Gain more control. Uptick in velo. Both. I think a few will. Most, probably won't.

 

One problem is, many are starting so low, a "leap" might bring them to a ceiling of a 4th starter or decent set-up man in the bigs.

 

Our best bet is for 2-3 from this group to "leap" from a decent ceiling to a much better one:

 

Wikelman

Perales

Slaten

Mata

Campbell

Guerrero

Monegro

maybe Hoppe

[mvp 78]

Good choices.

 

I'd add Slaten to the RP group.

 

My Longer shots: Mata, E R-C & maybe Troye.

 

My Longer shots to start? Gambrell, Walter, I Coffey. (I think Murphy graduated.)

 

My assumption was that Slaten graduates this year. I'm generally ignoring him as a prospect and treating him like an MLB regular since he can't be sent down.

 

I'm not a believer in Mata due to his control issues and health plus DFA needs. ERC just doesn't throw hard enough and is a real work in progress.

 

Gambrell will probably be an up and down starter. I don't think he sticks around in Boston. He may kick around the league. Walter is toast as his velo is gone. Coffey is a sidearm soft tosser who had more trouble as he reached AA. I think advanced batters won't have much of an issue teeing off on Coffey.

[mvp 78]

Maybe Peaz takes a leap this year, but his ceiling is bullpen arm to me.

 

There's a difference between "ceiling" and what is most likely to happen. His ceiling is back end starter. I think he has a better chance to start in the bigs than most of the other guys on the farm, but that isn't saying much.

[mvp 78]

I'd say we have about 10-15 pitchers that could "take a leap," this year. Gain more control. Uptick in velo. Both. I think a few will. Most, probably won't.

 

One problem is, many are starting so low, a "leap" might bring them to a ceiling of a 4th starter or decent set-up man in the bigs.

 

Our best bet is for 2-3 from this group to "leap" from a decent ceiling to a much better one:

 

Wikelman

Perales

Slaten

Mata

Campbell

Guerrero

Monegro

maybe Hoppe

 

More likely the gain velo than gain more control.

[moonslav59]

My assumption was that Slaten graduates this year. I'm generally ignoring him as a prospect and treating him like an MLB regular since he can't be sent down.

 

I'm not a believer in Mata due to his control issues and health plus DFA needs. ERC just doesn't throw hard enough and is a real work in progress.

 

Gambrell will probably be an up and down starter. I don't think he sticks around in Boston. He may kick around the league. Walter is toast as his velo is gone. Coffey is a sidearm soft tosser who had more trouble as he reached AA. I think advanced batters won't have much of an issue teeing off on Coffey.

 

Sounds fair. BTW, Mata can't be sent down, either.

[mvp 78]

Sounds fair. BTW, Mata can't be sent down, either.

 

Yes, that's why I mentioned his DFA needs.

[moonslav59]

Yes, that's why I mentioned his DFA needs.

 

Yes, but I still see Mata and Slaten as prospects and rookies.

[mvp 78]

I see Mata as not being around at the end of March.

[moonslav59]

I see Mata as not being around at the end of March.

 

I'd say the odds are firmly against him making the big club.

 

He first made the soxprospects.com's top 20 rankings back in April of 2017! (#16)

 

He climbed to #6, then #3 by the end of 2017- just ahead of Houck.

 

He rose to #2 by the end of 2019 (ahead of Groome, Houck and Song.)

 

By May of 2021, he'd fallen to #11, but was bumped back up to #7 and #6 during the 2022 season.

 

He started the 2023 season at #5, but quickly fell to #18 by July and #27 by November.

 

For a long time, some people felt this guy had talent and potential.

 

 

 

[mvp 78]

http://news.soxprospects.com/2024/02/how-red-sox-draft-strategy-has-affected.html

 

I'm putting this year because it's less likely to get buried. It's a piece written by Ian Cundall about the recent draft strategy that is hitter focused and generally ignores pitching and the effect it has on developing home grown pitching.

 

Some quick takeaways:

 

Sox are dead last in bonus pool spending on pitching since 2018.

 

Of the 31 pitchers in the top 100, 30 were drafted and only one were IFA's (2024). For last year, it was 25 draftees and 2 IFA's. Half of the top 100 pitchers are from the 1st round. The next quarter are from rounds 2 and 3.