Chris Sale traded to Braves

[Bellhorn04]

11 hours ago, Randy Red Sox said:

you still want to sign Flaherty???

Trying to avoid Recency Bias, but he did have some concerningly dreadful outings in the postseason.  

Anyway, it's probably a moot point since we're talking about the Full Throttle Interest Kings...

[mvp 78]

12 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

Trying to avoid Recency Bias, but he did have some concerningly dreadful outings in the postseason.  

Anyway, it's probably a moot point since we're talking about the Full Throttle Interest Kings...

Flaherty isn't really the mark of consistency to begin with. I'm not hitching my trailer to him with a big contract. 

[mvp 78]

11 hours ago, Randy Red Sox said:

he is a 4-5 guy at best.  

He's fine as a #2. He's not a TOTR though. 

[Bellhorn04]

10 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

He's fine as a #2. He's not a TOTR though. 

What's the difference between a TOTR and an ACE, BTW?

[mvp 78]

Just now, Bellhorn04 said:

What's the difference between a TOTR and an ACE, BTW?

People get very upset over the definition of what is and isn't an "ace." On here, people will always use that word to denote Roger, Pedro, Sale and peak Beckett. It may not be a fair term to put on every pitcher that is put in the #1 spot.

I don't think Flaherty should be the #1 guy in the rotation. Houck shouldn't either. I think they need someone else to be the #1 guy to lead the staff. 

[Bellhorn04]

2 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

People get very upset over the definition of what is and isn't an "ace." On here, people will always use that word to denote Roger, Pedro, Sale and peak Beckett. It may not be a fair term to put on every pitcher that is put in the #1 spot.

I don't think Flaherty should be the #1 guy in the rotation. Houck shouldn't either. I think they need someone else to be the #1 guy to lead the staff. 

Get ready for some Burnes/Fried Interest Kings fun...

[mvp 78]

3 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

Get ready for some Burnes/Fried Interest Kings fun...

I'm not buying into ANY hype this year. They could be in on a middle reliever and I'm not going to believe it's true.

[Duran Is The Man]

1 hour ago, mvp 78 said:

I'm not buying into ANY hype this year. They could be in on a middle reliever and I'm not going to believe it's true.

i'm hoping for a good middle reliever, but expecting a middle finger.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

6 minutes ago, Duran Is The Man said:

i'm hoping for a good middle reliever, but expecting a middle finger.

I'm going to insulate my core by adding to my middle, sitting around all winter waiting for anything to happen.

[Bellhorn04]

1 hour ago, Duran Is The Man said:

i'm hoping for a good middle reliever, but expecting a middle finger.

The new Red Sox are all about the middle.  Masters of mediocrity is the goal.  Nailed it to perfection in 2024. 

[mvp 78]

24 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

The new Red Sox are all about the middle.  Masters of mediocrity is the goal.  Nailed it to perfection in 2024. 

That third Wild Card spot is going to taste so sweet in 2026!

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

37 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

The new Red Sox are all about the middle.  Masters of mediocrity is the goal.  Nailed it to perfection in 2024. 

Breslow's the mediokerintendent.

[moonslav59]

To me, and ace is different from a #1.

A number one, in the context of looking at one team, means your best pitcher, but your best pitcher might be a #4 or 5 on another team.

For simplicity, I like to think a number 1 is a top 30 SP'er in MLB based on the recent year, recent 2-3 years and various stats and metrics. We all have our favorite stats/metrics, but to me, fWAR/bWAR, ERA-, OPS Against, xFIP and maybe WHIP matter the most.

It's not an exact science. To and older pitcher, the last year may matter more than the last 3. To a 2-3 year pitcher, maybe the last year matters way more than the 3 year numbers.

Some pitchers jump all over the rankings, when you switch the stat/metric. Some are top 20-30 on every list. I'd say those that are top 20 or so on every list, can probably be called an "ace."

Take a guy like Houck:  he was #14 in fWAR, this year among SP'ers with 70+ IP. The fact that we need to go to 70 IP to get a sample size of near 150 (30 teams x 5 SP'ers) is pretty telling. The 3 year sample size is 190 IP, and Houck places 60th. The recent one year sample makes Houck a clear #1 and maybe even an ace, but the 3 year sample puts him around a bottom #2 or top #3. I'd say he rates to be a solid #2, but with questions. Other pitchers have more questions and context needed.

[moonslav59]

JH has shown he's willing to spend on good RP'ers (Jansen & Martin on 2 year deals.) I hope he does not consider Henriks and Fulmer as capable replacements to those two, but I do think we just might sign a top RP'er, this winter- maybe Scott or Estevez. Again, I'm not expecting big spending, but I don't consider this type signing as all that "big." 

I'm not sure we add any SP'ers, and the trend has been to add 4/5's, some with hopes of being a #3 type, and I'm going with my definitions, here ( a 3 is a 60-90 ranked SP'er, a 4 is a 90-120...) I'm thinking Nick Martinez or Flaherty might be the best we can expect. Maybe a trade for a younger and better one could happen, but I'm not convinced the philosophy or long term strategy will allow for that.

Probably, the best we can expect is Scott, Matinez and maybe a trade of Abreu and DHam for another decent RP'er and a decent defensive catcher with 1 year left on his control.

I'll be genuinely surprised if we spend more than this or trade for more than this.

[Bellhorn04]

34 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

JH has shown he's willing to spend on good RP'ers (Jansen & Martin on 2 year deals.)

I think the last few years JH has mostly just set the budget and let the CBOs figure out how to allocate it.  Obviously he would have a big say in the larger deals.  But I don't think he would need to be consulted on Jansen & Martin.

[moonslav59]

I don't think we choose to spend really big on a SP'er like Burnes or Fried. Neither seems to jump out at "the guy," to me, and even if JH & Co really like one, they always set a price that gets beat by someone else, anyway. If there is one thing these guys have consistently done, they never go above the price they set as reasonable.

To me, the best bet for getting a #1 or #2, or whatever you want to call it, is by trade, but I'm doubtful we give up on the long term plan and farm building, this year. IMO, getting a young SP'er with 3-4 years of control is not like trading away the future to get. 4 years is about as much time as a prospect can give us, anyway. Giving up 3 prospects with 5-6 years of control is taking a big chunk out of the future promise, but it is just "promise."

I've spoke of bottlenecks and duplicated values, a lot, and I realize much of this is based on the belief that most of our top prospects are going to pan out. It's just speculation, and we can see many examples of underachieving from our top farm prospects, in the past: the prospects DD traded jump to mind, but also guys like Lars Anderson, Casey Kelly, Michael Bowden, Kalish & Middy, Swihart and Cecchini, Owens and Groome. However, our everyday player roster is loaded with good to decent players or promising to very promising players, along with guys like EValdez, Gasper, Sogard, Hickey and others that still hold some remote hopes of being helpful.

All these guys have 3 or more years of control:

C: Wong 4, Teel 5+, Jo. Garcia 5+ (Brannon)

1B: Casas 4, Romy 4 (Ju Gonzalez)

2B: Campbell 5+, Grissom 5, DHam 5, Cespedes 5+ (Nunez)

SS: Story 3-4,  Mayer 5+, Arias & Romero 5+ (Cason)

3B: Devers 9, Meidroth 5+ (Nunez)

LF: Abreu 4, Jh Garcia 5+, Ehrhard 5+ (Castro, Asencio)
CF: Duran 4, Rafaela 7, Bleis 5+ (Fermin)
RF: Anthony 5+, Montgomery 5+ (Yuten)

DH: Yoshida 3, %+: B Gonzalez , Jordan, W Turner

Our pitchers don't look all that great, but many of our best have 3+ Years, too:

(Whitlock has 2.)

3: Houck

4: Crawford, Wink, Kelly

5+ Bello, Slaten, Criswell, Fitts, Priester, Guerrero, Weissert, Sandlin, Campbell & more

 

[moonslav59]

10 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

I think the last few years JH has mostly just set the budget and let the CBOs figure out how to allocate it.  Obviously he would have a big say in the larger deals.  But I don't think he would need to be consulted on Jansen & Martin.

Good point, and that was Bloom not Brez that chose to spend on the pen, and not the rotation. Bloom also likely chose to spend on Story and Yoshida over the rotation, but maybe JH directed him not to spend large and long on any SP'ers, except Bello, which was more long than large, anyway.

[Duran Is The Man]

9 hours ago, Bellhorn04 said:

The new Red Sox are all about the middle.  Masters of mediocrity is the goal.  Nailed it to perfection in 2024. 

with Henry's disinclination to spend money, i expect payroll to drop to the middle of the pack.

[Duran Is The Man]

8 hours ago, mvp 78 said:

That third Wild Card spot is going to taste so sweet in 2026!

you're off by 20 years. 

why?

the Curse of Mookie. after winning the 1918 WS (2018) and a ******** owner getting rid of the teams superstar player in Ruth (Mookie) the next year, the Red Sox next trip to the playoffs wasn't until 1946. ergo, the next time we make the playoffs will be 2046. and the next WS Championship doesn't happen until 2104. it's gonna be a long wait. 

[moonslav59]

21 minutes ago, Duran Is The Man said:

with Henry's disinclination to spend money, i expect payroll to drop to the middle of the pack.

I don't doubt the budget goes down, again, but you seem so sure it will.

At least you won't be let down.

(I'm not expecting an increase, but I do think it may stay near the same, which would actually give Brez a pretty hefty winter spending budget.

[mvp 78]

10 hours ago, Duran Is The Man said:

you're off by 20 years. 

why?

the Curse of Mookie. after winning the 1918 WS (2018) and a ******** owner getting rid of the teams superstar player in Ruth (Mookie) the next year, the Red Sox next trip to the playoffs wasn't until 1946. ergo, the next time we make the playoffs will be 2046. and the next WS Championship doesn't happen until 2104. it's gonna be a long wait. 

Nah, it's much easier to get into the playoffs and the teams in the AL aren't very good right now. With the young guys coming up, they can get into the backend of the playoffs and "contend" for a little while. They won't get far or win a WS without spending, but they can get into the playoffs once in a while and maybe win a WC round here and there. 

[moonslav59]

2 hours ago, mvp 78 said:

Nah, it's much easier to get into the playoffs and the teams in the AL aren't very good right now. With the young guys coming up, they can get into the backend of the playoffs and "contend" for a little while. They won't get far or win a WS without spending, but they can get into the playoffs once in a while and maybe win a WC round here and there. 

Maybe it's wishful thinking, on my part, and I'll say again that I do NOT expect big spending from JH, but it is possible that the kids start to shine brightly, and we look a piece or two away from a ring, and JH decides to splurge, once again. 

I doubt it is this winter, but just spending the same as last year is a pretty big chunk of AAV.

[mvp 78]

10 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

Maybe it's wishful thinking, on my part, and I'll say again that I do NOT expect big spending from JH, but it is possible that the kids start to shine brightly, and we look a piece or two away from a ring, and JH decides to splurge, once again. 

I doubt it is this winter, but just spending the same as last year is a pretty big chunk of AAV.

People have told us that when they get close again with the prospects, the purse strings will be loosened. I don't know how much of that is wishcasting. 

[Duran Is The Man]

2 hours ago, mvp 78 said:

Nah, it's much easier to get into the playoffs and the teams in the AL aren't very good right now. With the young guys coming up, they can get into the backend of the playoffs and "contend" for a little while. They won't get far or win a WS without spending, but they can get into the playoffs once in a while and maybe win a WC round here and there. 

are you denying the curse is real?

[Bellhorn04]

8 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

People have told us that when they get close again with the prospects, the purse strings will be loosened. I don't know how much of that is wishcasting. 

It is wishcasting, because only one man knows if it's true, and he ain't sayin'.

[mvp 78]

Just now, Bellhorn04 said:

It is wishcasting, because only one man knows if it's true.

And that man is definitely NOT Tom Werner. 

[mvp 78]

3 minutes ago, Duran Is The Man said:

are you denying the curse is real?

Yes. The original one wasn't real either. 

[Bellhorn04]

6 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

And that man is definitely NOT Tom Werner. 

Nope, he's just another wishcaster.

[moonslav59]

1 hour ago, mvp 78 said:

People have told us that when they get close again with the prospects, the purse strings will be loosened. I don't know how much of that is wishcasting. 

Exactly. None of us know. 

I, for one, am not counting on it. I'll believe it, if and when I see it.

I will say JH has a long history of splurging, then going tight, rinse and repeat. His increase from 2020 to 2022 was one of his biggest in his 2 decades, in Boston. Yes, we can look at the time from 2018 to today as one long and deep cut, but it has not been steady. The Story and Yoshida signings may not match Price's deal, but Story's matches the Sale extension, pretty closely, and Yoshida comes close to the Bogey 3 year opt-out deal. The Devers extensions blows all other signings out of the water.

I'm not sugar coating anything. I'm pissed, too. The Story and Yoshida signings did not nearly make up for the guys we lost. This has been one long cluster, but there is no evidence to say JH will not spend again. Hell, the Devers extension kicked in just this year, yet people act like he hasn't gone large and long since Price, Sale, Nate, Bogey and JD.

I have no  idea what he will do. I hope he spends big, soon, but I'm not holding my breath. I'll be surprised, if he does, this winter. I'll be mildly surprised if he does for 2026 or 2027. I won't be surprised, if he cuts, this year.

[mvp 78]

3 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

His increase from 2020 to 2022 was one of his biggest in his 2 decades, in Boston.

C'mon man. He completely tanked payroll to get under the cap. In 2022, they barely went over the CBT. To call that one of the biggest increases in his tenure just ignores so much context that it's an absurd argument.