Red Sox sign Lucas Giolito

[mvp 78]

We aren't getting an ace for a 5 player package of #4 Rafaela, #6Yorke, #7 Perales, #8 Abreu and #9 Wikelman.

 

You could get one year of Burnes for that.

[Old Red]

If we are never going to sign a real ace SP'er, and it doesn't look like we have any pitchers on our farm any better looking than Bello or Crawford, eventually, we will have to trade prospects to get one. It does not have to be this winter. We could see how our prospects look for one more season, while also getting a better read on the future of Story, but at some point, I think we have to do what we did to get Pedro & Schilling and a ring, Beckett and a ring, Porcello plus Sale and a ring... TRADE!

 

We aren't getting an ace for a 5 player package of #4 Rafaela, #6Yorke, #7 Perales, #8 Abreu and #9 Wikelman.

 

The longer you wait to try, and fix the starting rotation the more expensive it gets.

[Bellhorn04]

You could get one year of Burnes for that.

 

But since 2024 isn't the be-all and end-all, there's not much point in that...

[Bellhorn04]

The longer you wait to try, and fix the starting rotation the more expensive it gets.

 

Maybe that's why they've decided to not even try.

[Old Red]

Maybe that's why they've decided to not even try.

 

I’m surprised they’ve spent $19M on Gio.

[Bellhorn04]

I’m surprised they’ve spent $19M on Gio.

 

Yeah, JH probably had tears rolling down his face. But when Brez told him he could recover about $10M of it by trading Sale, John brightened up again.

[mvp 78]

But since 2024 isn't the be-all and end-all, there's not much point in that...

 

Nope. I was just saying that they COULD get an ace for that package.

[mvp 78]

Yeah, JH probably had tears rolling down his face. But when Brez told him he could recover about $10M of it by trading Sale, John brightened up again.

 

It only took a few short seasons, but Henry blackpilled us on the Sox.

[mvp 78]

Giolito at Fenway: 252 tOPS+

Giolito with McGuire catching: 188 tOPS+

 

Maybe stick him with Wong as his personal catcher!

 

Out of all the catchers that received him at least 10 times, the worst was Grandal at 101 tOPS+. Seems like he does best with a consistent guy behind the plate.

[mvp 78]

Giolito Expected HR by Ballpark 2023:

Actual HR 40

Fenway Expected HR 29

 

Past 3 years:

Actual HR 91

Fenway Expected HR 59

[mvp 78]

I get that, but recent 1, 2 and 3 year numbers are usually better indicators of future success than 3, 4 and 5 years ago numbers.

 

 

Just make sure to exclude any years that corrupt your sample into looking bad for your argument!

[Hitch]

But since 2024 isn't the be-all and end-all, there's not much point in that...

 

Yeah, no chance we make a trade for a 1 year starter. I don't believe for a second we're tanking this year, but we've clearly got more than one eye on year 2 and 3.

 

As an aside, I cannot believe people are complaining about the Gio contract structure. I mean, I can, but dear God. This fan base is not in a good place ha!

[mvp 78]

Yeah, no chance we make a trade for a 1 year starter. I don't believe for a second we're tanking this year, but we've clearly got more than one eye on year 2 and 3.

 

As an aside, I cannot believe people are complaining about the Gio contract structure. I mean, I can, but dear God. This fan base is not in a good place ha!

 

Nope, but can you blame us?

[Hitch]

Nope, but can you blame us?

 

Definitely not. As I've been at pains to point out when making counter arguments - I totally get why there's an almost constant negative slant on every dissection of our moves.

 

It'll likely take a while before any sort of trust is won back. If at all.

[mvp 78]

Definitely not. As I've been at pains to point out when making counter arguments - I totally get why there's an almost constant negative slant on every dissection of our moves.

 

It'll likely take a while before any sort of trust is won back. If at all.

 

I hope that Crag can be a better CBO than Bloom. I'm unsure how much money Henry will pump into the Sox going forward. Unfortunately, everything changed when they dealt Mookie.

[Hitch]

I hope that Crag can be a better CBO than Bloom. I'm unsure how much money Henry will pump into the Sox going forward. Unfortunately, everything changed when they dealt Mookie.

 

Yeah I remember your reaction to Mookie. Fair to say that's when it broke for you?

 

I've been impressed with Breslow so far. I like his decisiveness, willingness to use the trade option and apparent courage to make big moves.

 

Henry, proof will be in the pudding I guess. He's a billionaire through being smart. I understand why he's looking at the Rays and thinking why the f*** am I spending all this extra money? And this isn't a new thing after courting Beane. But that doesn't give him a pass for some of the bad decisions in recent history.

[mvp 78]

Yeah I remember your reaction to Mookie. Fair to say that's when it broke for you?

 

I've been impressed with Breslow so far. I like his decisiveness, willingness to use the trade option and apparent courage to make big moves.

 

Henry, proof will be in the pudding I guess. He's a billionaire through being smart. I understand why he's looking at the Rays and thinking why the f*** am I spending all this extra money? And this isn't a new thing after courting Beane. But that doesn't give him a pass for some of the bad decisions in recent history.

 

I was willing to give everyone the benefit of the doubt until the Mookie stuff went down. That really broke my brain. I wanted to believe that Bloom could pick up the pieces after the fact and that ownership was just in dire need of resetting for the great good. However, it just seems to me that they are resetting just to save tax $$$. Henry sucks. I don't care about his checkbook.

 

The Rays are the exception to the rule. Every team wants to be the Rays, but haven't figured it out. It's easy enough to say "let's do it that way" but they never got close even using the Rays Way guy. To me it just makes more sense for a bigger market team to follow what works for other big market teams, namely the Dodgers. Henry is just obsessed with how good Brad Pitt looked in the movie adaptation of Moneyball and can't get beyond it.

 

Crag seems to have a certain set of skills that Bloom didn't have (pitching development, willingness to trade players). I'm somewhat hopeful, but will remain dubious about the overall ceiling going forward.

[moonslav59]

Just make sure to exclude any years that corrupt your sample into looking bad for your argument!

 

I almost always use 3 years, and did provide the 3 year numbers on the Wacha-Gio comp.

 

Just make sure you exclude WAR with your xFIP points made, and we'll call it even.

 

[moonslav59]

I was willing to give everyone the benefit of the doubt until the Mookie stuff went down. That really broke my brain. I wanted to believe that Bloom could pick up the pieces after the fact and that ownership was just in dire need of resetting for the great good. However, it just seems to me that they are resetting just to save tax $$$. Henry sucks. I don't care about his checkbook.

 

The Rays are the exception to the rule. Every team wants to be the Rays, but haven't figured it out. It's easy enough to say "let's do it that way" but they never got close even using the Rays Way guy. To me it just makes more sense for a bigger market team to follow what works for other big market teams, namely the Dodgers. Henry is just obsessed with how good Brad Pitt looked in the movie adaptation of Moneyball and can't get beyond it.

 

Crag seems to have a certain set of skills that Bloom didn't have (pitching development, willingness to trade players). I'm somewhat hopeful, but will remain dubious about the overall ceiling going forward.

 

Well said.

 

The Betts situation did "break" things, and what made it worse was the fact that we didn't even try to replace his and Price's contract money with anyone resembling a decent MLB player, until maybe Story in the late spring of 2022.

[Hitch]

I was willing to give everyone the benefit of the doubt until the Mookie stuff went down. That really broke my brain. I wanted to believe that Bloom could pick up the pieces after the fact and that ownership was just in dire need of resetting for the great good. However, it just seems to me that they are resetting just to save tax $$$. Henry sucks. I don't care about his checkbook.

 

The Rays are the exception to the rule. Every team wants to be the Rays, but haven't figured it out. It's easy enough to say "let's do it that way" but they never got close even using the Rays Way guy. To me it just makes more sense for a bigger market team to follow what works for other big market teams, namely the Dodgers. Henry is just obsessed with how good Brad Pitt looked in the movie adaptation of Moneyball and can't get beyond it.

 

Crag seems to have a certain set of skills that Bloom didn't have (pitching development, willingness to trade players). I'm somewhat hopeful, but will remain dubious about the overall ceiling going forward.

 

All fair. But I think the Dodgers are just as special a case as the Rays are. They have a conveyor belt of talent coming off that farm, and then usually invest smartly to amplify that talent. The Dodgers and Rays for different and similar reasons are the best run clubs in MLB. Models to learn from and emulate.

 

Baseball is different now. It's not like it was 25 years ago when the Yankees (or any big market team) could outspend everyone and blow them away, winning WS after WS. Spending means little without a very well run organisation, with analytics levelling the playing field. The Mets and Padres have been going crazy with their spending, both failed. The Yankees have been at the top of the spending lists forever, can't win it all.

 

I wonder if Henry was simply thinking, 'I am not paying out these massive contracts when our farm/development isn't up to scratch to supplement them.' (I accept this is me totally guessing and I could be way off). I think he hoped Bloom was the guy that would start bringing that to the fore. But for all the things Chaim did which I thought was good, he seemed paralysed on times with indecision around major moves. The last two trade deadlines being exhibit A and B. To further my theory, if Henry does believe all the above, you need someone with similar philosophy that is not afraid to back him/herself. Bres certainly fits so far.

 

We should be acting like a big market team (and none of this forgives the Betts mistake), but personally, I think we also need(ed) to get A LOT better as an organization from top to bottom, among other things in terms of scouting and development and not being afraid to make big moves. There are shoots of hope in the last year, or two at least.

Edited January 4, 2024 by Hitch

[Old Red]

Gio admitted he wasn’t a hot commodity on the FA market, so those are the kind the Red Sox like, and got their man. He’s only expecting to stick around for a year. Of course he’s got to turn things around first.

[Bellhorn04]

Gio admitted he wasn’t a hot commodity on the FA market, so those are the kind the Red Sox like, and got their man. He’s only expecting to stick around for a year. Of course he’s got to turn things around first.

 

The Red Sox are here to give guys like him the opportunity to rebuild their value. We're a charity of sorts.

[Old Red]

The Red Sox are here to give guys like him the opportunity to rebuild their value. We're a charity of sorts.

 

Yea, but usually not so generous with the payment.

[moonslav59]

The Red Sox are here to give guys like him the opportunity to rebuild their value. We're a charity of sorts.

 

The team of pillows!

[mvp 78]

The Red Sox are here to give guys like him the opportunity to rebuild their value. We're a charity of sorts.

 

It worked with Adrian Beltre.

[moonslav59]

It worked with Adrian Beltre.

 

Some players who signed with the Sox went on to get significant contracts after leaving, but yes, Beltre was atop or near the top of the list.

 

Strahm: $3M/1 > $15M/2

R Hill: $5M/1 > $8M/1

 

So many others flopped and flailed and never made as much as they did with their one and done with us.

[Tedballgame]

Well.........

[moonslav59]

This is like the Paxton signing, now- just double the money.

[mvp 78]

This is like the Paxton signing, now- just double the money.

 

Paxton had a 2/10M contract.

 

Giolito's is now 3/52.5 contract if the Sox pick up the '26 option (Gio not pitching 140 innings in '25).

[notin]

Paxton had a 2/10M contract.

 

Giolito's is now 3/52.5 contract if the Sox pick up the '26 option (Gio not pitching 140 innings in '25).

 

He's not pitching 140 IP next year. He's probably out until June/July 2025...