Red Sox ownership

[Hitch]

Jen McCaffrey at the Athletic, did a mail bag earlier. Predicably all the questions were about ownership.

 

This was the question:

 

Where do you think the direction is going for Fenway Sports Group? I’m not asking to really look into their other purchases of Liverpool FC or the Pittsburgh Penguins, but do you think they may plan to sell in the coming future? Clearly it seems they brought in Breslow to make trades and be creative, while staying under the luxury tax. I’m not a fan that’s yelling “Sell the team” quite yet, but just wondering your thoughts.

 

 

And this the answer...

 

 

This was one of about 40 questions (not exaggerating) relating to what ownership is doing, the direction of the franchise, selling the team and payroll in general. I’ll start with this: I do think they notice attendance numbers are slipping and they certainly noticed droves of visiting fans filling the stands as well as that late-season Yankees series where the park was hardly full. In some respects it seems like they’re white-knuckling through a self-induced tough time image-wise, waiting to get to the other side because they believe in their long-term vision, but they aren’t laying out clearly enough what that vision is or what the end date might be. They are just asking for blind faith. They promised a “full throttle” approach and have hardly shown that this winter.

 

There has been plenty of speculation in recent years on whether the reduced spending means John Henry and Fenway Sports Group is ramping up investing elsewhere like the NBA or further in the English Premier League. And while those things do seem to be in play as FSG expands its portfolio, one thing I think what’s received less attention is the $1.6 billion project approved last summer by the Boston Planning and Development Agency to overhaul the Fenway area. New shops, apartments, labs, offices and restaurants will permeate the Jersey Street and Brookline Ave area surrounding the ballpark in the coming years. Part of the project has already been approved, but there is a second part still pending before construction can begin. That’s a significant amount of money and I do have to wonder if some of that is what’s at play here with the reduced Red Sox payroll. I don’t think they’d sell in the middle of this long-term project and in 2022, Henry told us, “Every few years I read that the team is for sale, but our actual internal conversations always center on the future.”

 

Sam Kennedy and Co. are apprehensive about sharing too much about their financials, but it makes sense that that amount of capital, directly tied to the Fenway area, would be affecting the team’s payroll in some way. Kennedy has long said FSG’s separate entities — whether it be the Red Sox, Liverpool football club, Roush Racing, the Pittsburgh Penguins, etc. — all operate on their own budgets and don’t affect moves within other franchises, but this Fenway development is so closely tied to the Red Sox it might be different. The main factor here though is that if ownership isn’t fielding a team that can compete in the American League East, the immense amount of money poured into sprucing up the area, won’t matter if attendance keeps slipping and the product on the field suffers. With all that said, investing in development of the area is a good way to entice a buyer down the line — an iconic team and a bustling, economically fruitful area around the park.

 

The problem is that frustration is so high right now, building up around the park won’t matter if no one is coming to games anymore. I think Henry firmly believes spending around $225 million for payroll should be enough to field a competitive team. It sounds more and more like he didn’t think Bloom made the right moves with the money he was allotted to spend. Whether that’s fair or not is another discussion. Breslow seems to be entering a similar paradox of finding the best talent for a set payroll. There are successful teams with lower payrolls, but the best players require top money and the best players help win games more often than not. I’m sure Henry looks at the likes of the Mets and Padres of last year as spending exorbitantly and not winning, so that likely further validates his view trying to win within a set payroll window.

 

I’ll be clear, I’m not validating any of this, just trying to understand their thought process. I think it’s completely fair for fans to be angry about sky high ticket prices and billionaire owners not spending to their full means. But I’m also not sure they’ll change anytime soon.

 

Some stuff in there I wasn't aware of.

[Bellhorn04]

Wow, that was an awesome answer by Jen. She really knows her stuff.

[vegasbob]

Jen McCaffrey offers the best explanation of why ownership may be tight and reluctant to go all out on Sox spending . If CBOs/GMs can elevate mid market-mid income teams to consistent competitiveness, then why can't JH's quants do the same?

 

Having been in top roles in multi-billion dollar developments, it is not inconceivable that the FSG spend more than the entire Red Sox organization budget before even breaking ground on redevelopment of the neighborhood around the Park. BTW, kudos to Jh , Globe owner, for being able to pull off an in city development program with so many self appointed "stakeholders" all angling for their own signing bonus.

 

One thing to discount economically somewhat is the fan fallout factor. Attendance could easily stay in the high 27,000s and NESN's ratings may hold even if fewer people actually attend games. Ticket pricing, more than player spending, could have a bigger factor in 2024 if the oft predicted recession materializes.

 

Enlightening to read a piece by someone who can assess the situation without the fanaticism that defines fans.

[Bellhorn04]

Jen McCaffrey offers the best explanation of why ownership may be tight and reluctant to go all out on Sox spending . If CBOs/GMs can elevate mid market-mid income teams to consistent competitiveness, then why can't JH's quants do the same?

 

It's a credible explanation for the tight-fistedness, and an outrageous one at the same time.

 

Henry must have unlimited faith in the loyalty of Sox fans.

[moonslav59]

It's a credible explanation for the tight-fistedness, and an outrageous one at the same time.

 

Henry must have unlimited faith in the loyalty of Sox fans.

 

He must think he's smart enough to pick the right quants to get the job done.

[mvp 78]

The problem is that frustration is so high right now, building up around the park won’t matter if no one is coming to games anymore. I think Henry firmly believes spending around $225 million for payroll should be enough to field a competitive team. It sounds more and more like he didn’t think Bloom made the right moves with the money he was allotted to spend. Whether that’s fair or not is another discussion. Breslow seems to be entering a similar paradox of finding the best talent for a set payroll. There are successful teams with lower payrolls, but the best players require top money and the best players help win games more often than not. I’m sure Henry looks at the likes of the Mets and Padres of last year as spending exorbitantly and not winning, so that likely further validates his view trying to win within a set payroll window.

 

This coupled with his love affair with Billy Beane's early 2000 A's is why the Sox are where they are right now. Without a strong voice like Larry pushing Henry to spend, he's just going to say "oh, we should be winning on less money. Look at how my hedge funds did. Look at how Billy Beane did with no name undervalued guys." The problem with his logic is that Beane never won a WS and the most recent WS champion just went full throttle the past two years. Henry is obsessed with the undervalued asset gimmick and that is very hard to pull off when half of the league is trying to do the exact same thing.

[Old Red]

It's a credible explanation for the tight-fistedness, and an outrageous one at the same time.

 

Henry must have unlimited faith in the loyalty of Sox fans.

I read a post from a fan today who said they can understand a last place finish, but they can’t understand not trying to fix it.

[Hugh2]

Jen McCaffrey at the Athletic, did a mail bag earlier. Predicably all the questions were about ownership.

 

This was the question:

 

 

 

 

And this the answer...

 

 

 

 

Some stuff in there I wasn't aware of.

 

Jen McCaffery said what I've been thinking about 1000000X better than I ever could, although, I'm not paid to write and my english has always sucked. I didn't know a lot about the investment going into building up around Fenway. That may be a good long term thing for the total Boston experience, but as she said, what is that really worth if the product on the field is crap????

[Bellhorn04]

Jen McCaffery said what I've been thinking about 1000000X better than I ever could, although, I'm not paid to write and my english has always sucked. I didn't know a lot about the investment going into building up around Fenway. That may be a good long term thing for the total Boston experience, but as she said, what is that really worth if the product on the field is crap????

 

Yeah, she nailed it every which way.

[moonslav59]

The problem is that frustration is so high right now, building up around the park won’t matter if no one is coming to games anymore. I think Henry firmly believes spending around $225 million for payroll should be enough to field a competitive team. It sounds more and more like he didn’t think Bloom made the right moves with the money he was allotted to spend. Whether that’s fair or not is another discussion. Breslow seems to be entering a similar paradox of finding the best talent for a set payroll. There are successful teams with lower payrolls, but the best players require top money and the best players help win games more often than not. I’m sure Henry looks at the likes of the Mets and Padres of last year as spending exorbitantly and not winning, so that likely further validates his view trying to win within a set payroll window.

 

This coupled with his love affair with Billy Beane's early 2000 A's is why the Sox are where they are right now. Without a strong voice like Larry pushing Henry to spend, he's just going to say "oh, we should be winning on less money. Look at how my hedge funds did. Look at how Billy Beane did with no name undervalued guys." The problem with his logic is that Beane never won a WS and the most recent WS champion just went full throttle the past two years. Henry is obsessed with the undervalued asset gimmick and that is very hard to pull off when half of the league is trying to do the exact same thing.

 

Exactly, he has to have smarter and better guys in charge than the others, while staying ahead of the changes being made.

 

You can bet the teams that have mastered staying good while spending less are not just repeating what they do, every year. They are making changes and adjustments, all the time.

 

Trying to copy last year's Rays does not mean you will beat this year's Rays.

[Hugh2]

I made a post about this on another forum the other day but I will say it here too because I think it's very relevant to the McCaffery piece.

 

There's a difference between having a solid plan, and then executing that plan. Lets do a thought expirement for a second, lets try to think about how less awful this team might have looked last year if someone like Jeter Downs panned out? A young short stop coming up and taking over SS last year would have looked pretty good. Now all prospects don't hit but it makes you think that Bloom had the right ideal in mind, he just got the wrong guy; he didn't execute. As Jen says, it's not so much that he doesn't believe what he is doing but rather Bloom did not do a very good job. This may not be what fans want to hear, but that might not be 100% incorrect.

 

Anyways, I own a business, it's small but I employee on average about 9 people. My industry has seen some drastic changes over the past 20 years, with many of the traditional print products becoming largley obsolete, but other areas such as large format and signage have seen sales skyrocket. Some people who are stuck in their ways and taught to do one thing didn't understand selling a press and bringing in a UV flat bed to do more billboards, others loved the change. But one thing I never did was lie to people, or ignore them. I've battled my way throught multiple recessions, and I've been in some s*** situations before. I have always found that when I sit down, level with people, and tell them the truth, the backlast is FAR less severe.

 

If John Henry or Kennedy showed up to winter weekend, and gave a detailed explanation of what their plan was and were honest with fans, Told them what the plan was, what went wrong, but also highlighted everything going right I imagine if the conversation could look something like "Our plan is to build a sustainable contender, and with that we have tried gone down a tempered path of buildimg up assets towards a future and invest in the interim in a way that puts a competitive product on the field and does not put that future in jepordy. We have not been as successful as we like, and we apologize, we understand our fans demand more, but we are actively looking to correct our problems. We have brought in new personnel to help build up a more robust pitching and development program and we have a much stronger farm system than we did 4 years ago. We anticipated this process would not take as long, and we are actively working to do better and recognice that we have to do better than falling short of our goals"

 

Many fans wouldn't like that response, but I think at least they would be respected. I have found when I level with people, and I tell them the truth, the backlash is not as bad, and people will at least respect you.

 

But they chose to dig their heads in the sand, and to not even face the fans. That......that is unacceptable to me.

Edited January 12, 2024 by A Red Sox fan named Hugh

[Bellhorn04]

I made a post about this on another forum the other day but I will say it here too because I think it's very relevant to the McCaffery piece.

 

There's a difference between having a solid plan, and then executing that plan. Lets do a thought expirement for a second, lets try to think about how less awful this team might have looked last year if someone like Jeter Downs panned out? A young short stop coming up and taking over SS last year would have looked pretty good. Now all prospects don't hit but it makes you think that Bloom had the right ideal in mind, he just got the wrong guy; he didn't execute. As Jen says, it's not so much that he doesn't believe what he is doing but rather Bloom did not do a very good job. This may not be what fans want to hear, but that might not be 100% incorrect.

 

So what do they do? They replace Bloom with a guy who has a remarkably similar profile, including the ZERO EXPERIENCE AS A CBO.

 

And apparently, GIVE HIM THE SAME TIGHT BUDGET.

 

What we might be looking at is a snowballing of mistakes that's only going to get worse.

[Old Red]

So what do they do? They replace Bloom with a guy who has a remarkably similar profile, including the ZERO EXPERIENCE AS A CBO.

 

And apparently, GIVE HIM THE SAME TIGHT BUDGET.

 

What we might be looking at is a snowballing of mistakes that's only going to get worse.

 

It wasn’t like they had their pick of the cream of the crop either when it came to Bres. I guess the rest of any potential candidates didn’t get Sam’s memo that Boston is the place that anyone would want to be.

[Hugh2]

So what do they do? They replace Bloom with a guy who has a remarkably similar profile, including the ZERO EXPERIENCE AS A CBO.

 

And apparently, GIVE HIM THE SAME TIGHT BUDGET.

 

What we might be looking at is a snowballing of mistakes that's only going to get worse.

 

I mean look, I'm not going to go down this path today, I'm not feeling very argumentative. I'm just trying to wrap my head around the article written by McCaffery. It's entirely possible that someone can come up with a game plan, and it fails, where better personel (players) would have succeeded. I'm not in the group of people that want to throw the baby out with the bath water. I personaly believe Breslow deserves a fair chance and it feels like he may not get it here, but that's another conversation to be had.

 

We can sit here and argue all day what is wrong with this team, and we do.

We can sit here all day and say who we should trade for or who we shouldn't trade away, and we do.

We can sit here all day and argue what ownerships true intentions are and their level of comittment, and we do.

 

But I think we can all agree they have chose to bury their heads in the sand and disengage themselves from their fanbase. That is very disenfranchising. I think that may be the one thing we can all agree on here.

[Bellhorn04]

To me what's going on this offseason is just kind of stunning. They know the fanbase is pissed, they make a change at CBO, they make promises, then they double down on the tight-fistedness.

 

Unf***ingbelievable, really.

[Old Red]

To me what's going on this offseason is just kind of stunning. They know the fanbase is pissed, they make a change at CBO, they make promises, then they double down on the tight-fistedness.

 

Unf***ingbelievable, really.

 

And they won’t show up at Winter Weekend to face the music.

[Bellhorn04]

And they won’t show up at Winter Weekend to face the music.

 

Yes, the hits just keep coming.

[moonslav59]

I made a post about this on another forum the other day but I will say it here too because I think it's very relevant to the McCaffery piece.

 

There's a difference between having a solid plan, and then executing that plan. Lets do a thought expirement for a second, lets try to think about how less awful this team might have looked last year if someone like Jeter Downs panned out? A young short stop coming up and taking over SS last year would have looked pretty good. Now all prospects don't hit but it makes you think that Bloom had the right ideal in mind, he just got the wrong guy; he didn't execute. As Jen says, it's not so much that he doesn't believe what he is doing but rather Bloom did not do a very good job. This may not be what fans want to hear, but that might not be 100% incorrect.

 

Anyways, I own a business, it's small but I employee on average about 9 people. My industry has seen some drastic changes over the past 20 years, with many of the traditional print products becoming largley obsolete, but other areas such as large format and signage have seen sales skyrocket. Some people who are stuck in their ways and taught to do one thing didn't understand selling a press and bringing in a UV flat bed to do more billboards, others loved the change. But one thing I never did was lie to people, or ignore them. I've battled my way throught multiple recessions, and I've been in some s*** situations before. I have always found that when I sit down, level with people, and tell them the truth, the backlast is FAR less severe.

 

If John Henry or Kennedy showed up to winter weekend, and gave a detailed explanation of what their plan was and were honest with fans, Told them what the plan was, what went wrong, but also highlighted everything going right I imagine if the conversation could look something like "Our plan is to build a sustainable contender, and with that we have tried gone down a tempered path of buildimg up assets towards a future and invest in the interim in a way that puts a competitive product on the field and does not put that future in jepordy. We have not been as successful as we like, and we apologize, we understand our fans demand more, but we are actively looking to correct our problems. We have brought in new personnel to help build up a more robust pitching and development program and we have a much stronger farm system than we did 4 years ago. We anticipated this process would not take as long, and we are actively working to do better and recognice that we have to do better than falling short of our goals"

 

Many fans wouldn't like that response, but I think at least they would be respected. I have found when I level with people, and I tell them the truth, the backlash is not as bad, and people will at least respect you.

 

But they chose to dig their heads in the sand, and to not even face the fans. That......that is unacceptable to me.

 

Well said.

 

It's hard to know how much some in the organization has been lied to or misled, but it does seem like it occurs.

[Hitch]

 

Enlightening to read a piece by someone who can assess the situation without the fanaticism that defines fans.

 

Indeed.

[Hitch]

But I think we can all agree they have chose to bury their heads in the sand and disengage themselves from their fanbase. That is very disenfranchising. I think that may be the one thing we can all agree on here.

 

This is the point. All the other stuff people are getting angry about this off season is mainly fantasy and guess work (which may come to be true come first pitch of the season), but hiding away really isn't a good look at all.

 

That said, every time they open their mouths they stick their expensive shoes in them. It's possible they just plan to ride out all the noise (and by God there's a lot) until they present a more presentable team to play this season. It is also possible that they are saying nothing because telling everyone what they want to do adds dollar signs and higher rated prospects to potential deals.

 

But they've made it very hard to trust it could be any of the above.

[moonslav59]

So what do they do? They replace Bloom with a guy who has a remarkably similar profile, including the ZERO EXPERIENCE AS A CBO.

 

And apparently, GIVE HIM THE SAME TIGHT BUDGET.

 

What we might be looking at is a snowballing of mistakes that's only going to get worse.

 

Think of how many bad choices Bloom made, even within the context of the tight budgets handed him and what I believe was not only a mandate to trade Betts and dump Price, but also to not replace their salaries for 2-3 years afterwards.

 

I don't think it is absurd to think another GM could have done better under the same circumstances or might do better going forward.

 

I'm not saying the tight budget is not an issue, but several teams pay out as much as we do or less, and win more than we have been doing, recently. That being said, some context is needed.

 

To get the team to finish in just 4th place, we have to do more than any MLB team in any other division than the ALE.

 

This team had a significantly long low point in farm production, and then had a GM that decided to draft mostly HS players for a few years in a row. Bloom's top draft picks are still about 1-3 years away from expecting significant impact. That's not Breslow's fault, but he has to deal with it. DD's prospects are almost all graduated or are about to (Rafaela, except Perales & Wikelman).

 

It's not like the foundation left to breslow is bare or weak, it just has some major holes (like SP) and replacements that are too far away to help, now.

 

It looks to me, like the plan is all about 2025 or 2026, but for obvious reasons, they don't want to tell frustrated fans that truth.

[moonslav59]

To me what's going on this offseason is just kind of stunning. They know the fanbase is pissed, they make a change at CBO, they make promises, then they double down on the tight-fistedness.

 

Unf***ingbelievable, really.

 

The cherry on top was the "full throttle" lie.

 

I'm glad I chose not to believe it, at the time, but it that does not soften the anger and frustration I feel about this winter.

 

Go WOO!

 

Go Sea Dogs!

[Bellhorn04]

Think of how many bad choices Bloom made, even within the context of the tight budgets handed him and what I believe was not only a mandate to trade Betts and dump Price, but also to not replace their salaries for 2-3 years afterwards.

 

I don't think it is absurd to think another GM could have done better under the same circumstances or might do better going forward.

 

I dunno moon, when you look at what's going on, it seems like Bloom did just about what he could be expected to do. He built up the farm, he kept payroll under control. The 2021-2023 teams were all somewhat in the hunt in July.

 

How much the budget affected some of his choices we'll never know.

 

But I think there's a strong possibility he was fired just to temporarily appease the fans.

 

And I feel kind of sorry for Breslow because they're putting him in a s***** position.

Edited January 12, 2024 by Bellhorn04

[mvp 78]

I made a post about this on another forum the other day but I will say it here too because I think it's very relevant to the McCaffery piece.

 

There's a difference between having a solid plan, and then executing that plan. Lets do a thought expirement for a second, lets try to think about how less awful this team might have looked last year if someone like Jeter Downs panned out? A young short stop coming up and taking over SS last year would have looked pretty good. Now all prospects don't hit but it makes you think that Bloom had the right ideal in mind, he just got the wrong guy; he didn't execute. As Jen says, it's not so much that he doesn't believe what he is doing but rather Bloom did not do a very good job. This may not be what fans want to hear, but that might not be 100% incorrect.

 

Anyways, I own a business, it's small but I employee on average about 9 people. My industry has seen some drastic changes over the past 20 years, with many of the traditional print products becoming largley obsolete, but other areas such as large format and signage have seen sales skyrocket. Some people who are stuck in their ways and taught to do one thing didn't understand selling a press and bringing in a UV flat bed to do more billboards, others loved the change. But one thing I never did was lie to people, or ignore them. I've battled my way throught multiple recessions, and I've been in some s*** situations before. I have always found that when I sit down, level with people, and tell them the truth, the backlast is FAR less severe.

 

If John Henry or Kennedy showed up to winter weekend, and gave a detailed explanation of what their plan was and were honest with fans, Told them what the plan was, what went wrong, but also highlighted everything going right I imagine if the conversation could look something like "Our plan is to build a sustainable contender, and with that we have tried gone down a tempered path of buildimg up assets towards a future and invest in the interim in a way that puts a competitive product on the field and does not put that future in jepordy. We have not been as successful as we like, and we apologize, we understand our fans demand more, but we are actively looking to correct our problems. We have brought in new personnel to help build up a more robust pitching and development program and we have a much stronger farm system than we did 4 years ago. We anticipated this process would not take as long, and we are actively working to do better and recognice that we have to do better than falling short of our goals"

 

Many fans wouldn't like that response, but I think at least they would be respected. I have found when I level with people, and I tell them the truth, the backlash is not as bad, and people will at least respect you.

 

But they chose to dig their heads in the sand, and to not even face the fans. That......that is unacceptable to me.

 

Credit to Bloom, last year he basically said (paraphrased) "if you want to get the ovations on the stage at winter weekend after a World Series, you need to receive the boos when you aren't going a good job too. It's holding yourself accountable to the fans." Right now, the owners are not accountable.

[Bellhorn04]

Credit to Bloom, last year he basically said (paraphrased) "if you want to get the ovations on the stage at winter weekend after a World Series, you need to receive the boos when you aren't going a good job too. It's holding yourself accountable to the fans." Right now, the owners are not accountable.

 

On top of this, from what Peter Abraham said, they're minimizing Breslow's availability to the press.

[mvp 78]

So what do they do? They replace Bloom with a guy who has a remarkably similar profile, including the ZERO EXPERIENCE AS A CBO.

 

And apparently, GIVE HIM THE SAME TIGHT BUDGET.

 

What we might be looking at is a snowballing of mistakes that's only going to get worse.

 

We are in the stage of the movie where the groundhog is driving the truck.

[mvp 78]

I mean look, I'm not going to go down this path today, I'm not feeling very argumentative. I'm just trying to wrap my head around the article written by McCaffery. It's entirely possible that someone can come up with a game plan, and it fails, where better personel (players) would have succeeded. I'm not in the group of people that want to throw the baby out with the bath water. I personaly believe Breslow deserves a fair chance and it feels like he may not get it here, but that's another conversation to be had.

 

We can sit here and argue all day what is wrong with this team, and we do.

We can sit here all day and say who we should trade for or who we shouldn't trade away, and we do.

We can sit here all day and argue what ownerships true intentions are and their level of comittment, and we do.

 

But I think we can all agree they have chose to bury their heads in the sand and disengage themselves from their fanbase. That is very disenfranchising. I think that may be the one thing we can all agree on here.

 

Throwing the baby out with the bath water would be dumping the entire farm to make a run at a short window. I don't think they are going that direction. There's still a long term focus.

[mvp 78]

To me what's going on this offseason is just kind of stunning. They know the fanbase is pissed, they make a change at CBO, they make promises, then they double down on the tight-fistedness.

 

Unf***ingbelievable, really.

 

My wife asked me today if I wanted to go to Ft Myers. I said no. The vibes are bad. I'll go see them at an away game that is 2 hours closer instead.

[mvp 78]

This is the point. All the other stuff people are getting angry about this off season is mainly fantasy and guess work (which may come to be true come first pitch of the season), but hiding away really isn't a good look at all.

 

That said, every time they open their mouths they stick their expensive shoes in them. It's possible they just plan to ride out all the noise (and by God there's a lot) until they present a more presentable team to play this season. It is also possible that they are saying nothing because telling everyone what they want to do adds dollar signs and higher rated prospects to potential deals.

 

But they've made it very hard to trust it could be any of the above.

 

When baseball insiders are saying "they are out on the top FA's and need to cut payroll to bring guys in" what are we supposed to believe? Just wait until ST for the roster to round into form? Some magical pot of money is going to appear? Henry's cold heart will melt with the snow in springtime?

[mvp 78]

On top of this, from what Peter Abraham said, they're minimizing Breslow's availability to the press.

 

They didn't want to have to hand out dictionaries to fans.