Craig Breslow hired as Head Of Baseball Operations

[moonslav59]

As much as he actually provided some excitement, the Sox (re:Bloom) should have passed on Adam Duvall, kept Kike in CF, and acquired an uninjured shortstop (Andrus?)…

 

The hope in Mondesi might have been one of the most unheralded Bloom blunder of 2023. Hope in Kike was high on that list, too. The fact that both played the same position created a major hole in the team at a very important position.

[sk7326]

With the posting fee, that would make his cost about the same as Cole's current record-setter. And the opt-out would add to the risk.

 

Oh there is risk ... but again, 25 year old premium FAs just don't get to the market. I'd also argue the opt out is not terrible for Boston

 

If Yamamoto is a star, Boston will have to pay sticker price, but they still get the excess value of 5 years

If Yamamoto is solid, not spectacular - it would likely justify the AAV for the early term and Boston can let someone else pay the sticker price

If Yamamoto is awful, you're effed - but the opt out has nothing to do with that

[moonslav59]

I kind of expect some deal like 9/270 with an optout after year 5 or 6. If Yamamoto is good, he will want at least one other huge payday.

 

Giving an opt out might be how a team snags him.

 

$160/6 with opt out ($26.7M x 6)

$130/4, if he does not opt out. ($32.5M x 4)

Total: $290/10

 

[moonslav59]

Oh there is risk ... but again, 25 year old premium FAs just don't get to the market. I'd also argue the opt out is not terrible for Boston

 

If Yamamoto is a star, Boston will have to pay sticker price, but they still get the excess value of 5 years

If Yamamoto is solid, not spectacular - it would likely justify the AAV for the early term and Boston can let someone else pay the sticker price

If Yamamoto is awful, you're effed - but the opt out has nothing to do with that

 

It might be the biggest gamble contract in MLB history, whoever signs him.

[Bellhorn04]

Giving an opt out might be how a team snags him.

 

$160/6 with opt out ($26.7M x 6)

$130/4, if he does not opt out. ($32.5M x 4)

Total: $290/10

 

 

So we're bumping the projection of $225 to $290 LOL

 

Don't forget the 15% posting fee which gets paid by the team that signs him, and by them alone.

 

That would be $43.5 mill on $290 mill.

[Old Red]

So we're bumping the projection of $225 to $290 LOL

 

Don't forget the 15% posting fee which gets paid by the team that signs him, and by them alone.

 

That would be $43.5 mill on $290 mill.

Get the Yankees, and Mets bidding against each other, and anything goes.

[Old Red]

I think he'll get more than projected too.

 

With regard to his age, the only cautionary thing is that the Japanese teams seem to really work their pitchers hard. I think Yamamoto threw 138 pitches in one of his last games this year.

Do they still only pitch once a week in Japan like Dice K did? He only pitched in 24 games this past year, and 170 inn.

Edited November 18, 2023 by Old Red

[sk7326]

It might be the biggest gamble contract in MLB history, whoever signs him.

 

You have to bet on scouting of course. But is it possible/likely that you can get ~20 WAR or so out of him over the first 5 years of the deal? Sure. Then it's not a lemon - but more "fine".

[Bellhorn04]

Do they still only pitch once a week like Dice K did? He only pitched in 24 games this past year, and 170 inn.

 

Shorter schedule I think. Not sure about the once a week thing.

[moonslav59]

So we're bumping the projection of $225 to $290 LOL

 

No. I said MLBTR projected $225M/9, not me.

[Bellhorn04]

No. I said MLBTR projected $225M/9, not me.

 

Yes, I know. I'm saying they projected 225 and we're projecting 290.

[moonslav59]

You have to bet on scouting of course. But is it possible/likely that you can get ~20 WAR or so out of him over the first 5 years of the deal? Sure. Then it's not a lemon - but more "fine".

 

I have to admit, the 25 year old thing has me hooked.

 

I think we'll go a safer route.

 

Best case scenario, I think we might sign ...

 

Montgomery (MLBTR projects $150M/6)

 

Gray ($90M/4)

 

I think they will like the two seperate length deals.

 

My guess is, we may sign just one of these two and then someone like Seth Lugo ($42M/3), Wacha ($36M/3), Clevinger ($26M/2) or Flaherty ($40M/3)

 

I doubt we go for 3: Gray, Lugo & Wacha for about $170M, total.

[Bellhorn04]

Oh there is risk ... but again, 25 year old premium FAs just don't get to the market. I'd also argue the opt out is not terrible for Boston

 

If Yamamoto is a star, Boston will have to pay sticker price, but they still get the excess value of 5 years

If Yamamoto is solid, not spectacular - it would likely justify the AAV for the early term and Boston can let someone else pay the sticker price

If Yamamoto is awful, you're effed - but the opt out has nothing to do with that

 

I get the theory, but the Bogaerts opt-out situation kind of soured me on them. In the final year before the opt-out they're "sort of" an impending free agent, but you may not know for sure one way or the other. The opt-out might also affect what you can get back in a trade.

 

The clear-cut cases are not a big issue but the borderline cases can cause a lot of uncertainty.

[moonslav59]

Yes, I know. I'm saying they projected 225 and we're projecting 290.

 

Not uncommon for the big ticket, flashy guys.

[Bellhorn04]

I have to admit, the 25 year old thing has me hooked.

 

I think we'll go a safer route.

 

Best case scenario, I think we might sign ...

 

Montgomery (MLBTR projects $150M/6)

 

Gray ($90M/4)

 

I think they will like the two seperate length deals.

 

My guess is, we may sign just one of these two and then someone like Seth Lugo ($42M/3), Wacha ($36M/3), Clevinger ($26M/2) or Flaherty ($40M/3)

 

I doubt we go for 3: Gray, Lugo & Wacha for about $170M, total.

 

Don't be surprised if guys like Monty and Gray get 20% more than projected too.

[Larry Cook]

Don't be surprised if guys like Monty and Gray get 20% more than projected too.

 

I think we can get Montgomery for 6 years at 210mm

But there is huge premium on starting pitching this year

[Old Red]

Don't be surprised if guys like Monty and Gray get 20% more than projected too.

 

I think Monty is way overrated, and is only being mentioned so much is, because he is a FA. He’s been on 3 teams the last two years, and his career stats are not all that great either. A 10 game winner last year is his only double digit winning season.

[Old Red]

I think we can get Montgomery for 6 years at 210mm

But there is huge premium on starting pitching this year

 

No thanks for that much money.

[sk7326]

I get the theory, but the Bogaerts opt-out situation kind of soured me on them. In the final year before the opt-out they're "sort of" an impending free agent, but you may not know for sure one way or the other. The opt-out might also affect what you can get back in a trade.

 

The clear-cut cases are not a big issue but the borderline cases can cause a lot of uncertainty.

 

I was soured a little - though some of the thing with Bogaerts was self inflicted by Boston.

[sk7326]

I think Monty is way overrated, and is only being mentioned so much is, because he is a FA. He’s been on 3 teams the last two years, and his career stats are not all that great either. A 10 game winner last year is his only double digit winning season.

 

People are buying high on him - that is very true. Friends don't let friends cite pitcher wins though.

[moonslav59]

Don't be surprised if guys like Monty and Gray get 20% more than projected too.

 

Agreed. There will still be some big spenders leftover, after Ohtani, Yamo, Nola and Snell sign.

 

Monty might get $168/6 ($28M x 6) or even $182/7 ($26M x 7.)

 

Gray might get $100M/4 ($25M x 4) or $115M/5 ($23M x 5)

 

I'd do any of these and grit my teeth.

[moonslav59]

I think we can get Montgomery for 6 years at 210mm

But there is huge premium on starting pitching this year

 

True, but there is a long list of good to very good SP'ers on the market:

 

Ohtani

Yama

Nola

Snell

Bauer

Kershaw

 

Monty

Gray

ERod

Imanaga

 

Giolito

Stroman

Lugo

Flaherty

Wacha

Clevinger

 

Shots in the dark...

Maeda

Lorenzen

Mahle

Montas

Severino

Ryu

Lynn

Miley

[Randy Red Sox]

I think Monty is way overrated, and is only being mentioned so much is, because he is a FA. He’s been on 3 teams the last two years, and his career stats are not all that great either. A 10 game winner last year is his only double digit winning season.

 

 

I agree that Montgomery is overrated and not worth what he will likely get. I prefer Snell but would even have reservations on him at the cost. I would go ALL IN on Yamamoto and trade for a young cost controllable starter. My fear is though after Breslow STOLE the reliever from Seattle that either Houk {more likely} or Whitlock {less likely} will stay in the rotation along with Pivetta, Sale, Bello, and ONE SP from either FA or trade.

[Randy Red Sox]

True, but there is a long list of good to very good SP'ers on the market:

 

Ohtani

Yama

Nola

Snell

Bauer

Kershaw

 

Monty

Gray

ERod

Imanaga

 

Giolito

Stroman

Lugo

Flaherty

Wacha

Clevinger

 

Shots in the dark...

Maeda

Lorenzen

Mahle

Montas

Severino

Ryu

Lynn

Miley

 

If Bloom were still in charge you know he'd be shopping in the "shot in the dark" category.

[Randy Red Sox]

It might be the biggest gamble contract in MLB history, whoever signs him.

 

that is true given that he regularly threw over 130 pitches/game in Japan.

[notin]

I get the theory, but the Bogaerts opt-out situation kind of soured me on them. In the final year before the opt-out they're "sort of" an impending free agent, but you may not know for sure one way or the other. The opt-out might also affect what you can get back in a trade.

 

The clear-cut cases are not a big issue but the borderline cases can cause a lot of uncertainty.

 

Opt outs are very simple. They allow you to lose good players or keep struggling one…

[Old Red]

I get the theory, but the Bogaerts opt-out situation kind of soured me on them. In the final year before the opt-out they're "sort of" an impending free agent, but you may not know for sure one way or the other. The opt-out might also affect what you can get back in a trade.

 

The clear-cut cases are not a big issue but the borderline cases can cause a lot of uncertainty.

 

I don’t like opt-outs at all. They can hold teams hostage like JD did for a couple of years with the Sox. Bogey should have either been signed to a 3 yr, or 6 year contract, and then there is no guessing. Paying JT $6.5M not to play for the Red Sox this year to me is ridiculous too.

[notin]

If Bloom were still in charge you know he'd be shopping in the "shot in the dark" category.

 

Oh no! Bloom would try to sign a pitcher on a list of former All Stars and Top 6 Cy Young finalists!! He’s so out of touch!!

 

Seriously, you think Breslow is going to avoid those pitchers? Every one except Mahle is a former All Star or Cy Young finalist or both. Plenty of GMs will talk to those guys.

 

Except maybe Miley, since he’s an insufferable ******* (paraphrasing Joe Castiglione)…

[moonslav59]

If Bloom were still in charge you know he'd be shopping in the "shot in the dark" category.

 

If he was given $70M, this winter, it's hard to imagine him not signing a top two tier SP'er, but who knows? With $50M, he'd probably sign two from Flaherty, Lugo & Wacha.

 

[notin]

I don’t like opt-outs at all. They can hold teams hostage like JD did for a couple of years with the Sox. Bogey should have either been signed to a 3 yr, or 6 year contract, and then there is no guessing. Paying JT $6.5M not to play for the Red Sox this year to me is ridiculous too.

 

Opt outs are there to incentivize the player to sign and allow him security if something goes wrong. They’re for the player benefit. No way in Hell Bogaerts signs a 6 year $120mill deal without the ability to opt out.

 

Turner might not have signed without that clause….