A Realistic View at 2024: Part I

[Hugh2]

Irrelevant to you, because I said before FA even started that the Red Sox would not be signing any top money FA pitchers, and now I can sleep good tonight knowing that Snell, and Monty have finally found a home to go to.👏

 

Anything to ever admit you were wrong.

[moonslav59]

I thought Monty would get less years and money than most did, but this is shocking.

 

The difference in pay between Monty and Gio really highlights, yet again, one more missed opportunity by Sox management.

[Bellhorn04]

There's something really weird about all of Boras's Big 4 getting these little pillow deals.

 

Not sure what the explanation is, but pretty sure it ain't good.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

I'm not so sure any of these guys would have rocked it with other systems, but certainly they had no favors done for them.

 

I think our pitching selection decisions are half the issue.

 

I thought Monty would get less years and money than most did, but this is shocking.

 

The difference in pay between Monty and Gio really highlights, yet again, one more missed opportunity by Sox management.

 

Many have surmised Boras blew it with his clients this winter -- and that the entire industry also knows something about Monty that precluded anyone from giving him market value.

 

But that doesn't excuse the all-out Red Sox from going all-in on Giolito, who admitted he had basically no other solid offers.

 

The Sox front office, chaired mostly by lifers with more job security than Supreme Court jesters, outbid themselves on Gio this year and Yoshida last year -- doesn't quite make them smarter than everyone else...

[Randy Red Sox]

I thought Monty would get less years and money than most did, but this is shocking.

 

The difference in pay between Monty and Gio really highlights, yet again, one more missed opportunity by Sox management.

 

you just don't get it do you? Henry is not going to spend big $$ again -probably ever. I would love to watch the tight wad at an event with the fans talking about his plans

[Dipre]

you just don't get it do you? Henry is not going to spend big $$ again -probably ever. I would love to watch the tight wad at an event with the fans talking about his plans

 

How do you know this? Do you have a crystal ball?

[moonslav59]

you just don't get it do you? Henry is not going to spend big $$ again -probably ever. I would love to watch the tight wad at an event with the fans talking about his plans

 

I think you missed my point. We could have signed Monty instead of Gio. That's not spending much more money.

 

I also disagree with your never "again" on JH's spending. I'm not sure, but I think he will spend big again, when he thinks the time is better than now.

 

Monty: $25M/1 or $45M/2

 

Gio, now that we know he's back next year: $38.5M/2

 

We are talking $5.5M over 2 years, or $2.75M each year. That's basically Liam Henriks numbers.

[moonslav59]

How do you know this? Do you have a crystal ball?

 

JH has a long history of splurging, then cutting back: rinse and repeat.

 

He extended Devers to the biggest contract in Sox history by a long shot, not long ago.

 

Certainly, Randy may end up being right, but no way can any of us know, and I think the evidence points to more rinsing and repeating.

[Bellhorn04]

JH has a long history of splurging, then cutting back: rinse and repeat.

 

He extended Devers to the biggest contract in Sox history by a long shot, not long ago.

 

Certainly, Randy may end up being right, but no way can any of us know, and I think the evidence points to more rinsing and repeating.

 

Henry has never been outspent by a dozen other teams 2 seasons in a row, though. No matter how we frame it, that's new.

[Dipre]

Henry has never been outspent by a dozen other teams 2 seasons in a row, though. No matter how we frame it, that's new.

 

Dude's whiplashed from the failed pitching contracts, but there's no reason to believe he'll never spend again. Another thing is, does it really matter how much he spends if the team is winning? Trying to frame for context, because I couldn't give less of a s*** about payroll if the team is good.

[Bellhorn04]

Dude's whiplashed from the failed pitching contracts, but there's no reason to believe he'll never spend again. Another thing is, does it really matter how much he spends if the team is winning? Trying to frame for context, because I couldn't give less of a s*** about payroll if the team is good.

 

"If the team is winning" is great. The fact is we've won 78 games 2 years in a row and are projected to do about the same this year.

[Old Red]

There's something really weird about all of Boras's Big 4 getting these little pillow deals.

 

Not sure what the explanation is, but pretty sure it ain't good.

 

Again like I said before FA even started that just, because there was a big need out there for starting pitching, and Snell, and Monty were available doesn’t mean they were worth long, and big contracts, and they didn’t get them at least in length, which is very weird from what all the pundits were saying, and predicting especially after what the Big O, and the Yam Man signed for. I can’t see any collusion out there if the Yankees offer to Snell was actually offered. BorASS didn’t win this time.

[Old Red]

JH has a long history of splurging, then cutting back: rinse and repeat.

 

He extended Devers to the biggest contract in Sox history by a long shot, not long ago.

 

Certainly, Randy may end up being right, but no way can any of us know, and I think the evidence points to more rinsing and repeating.

You have said this 100 time about JH past history on spending, and that’s all that is past history. Do you honestly think that JH is the same as JH today?

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

"If the team is winning" is great.

 

I feel like Jon Stewart... I -- I can't -- I can't do this again...

 

... "once we're good enough, then we'll be good enough to spend on top pitching" --

 

bu-but YOU'LL NEVER BE f***ING GOOD AGAIN WITHOUT GOOD f***ING PITCHERS!!!!!@#$%^&*!!!!

[Old Red]

Henry has never been outspent by a dozen other teams 2 seasons in a row, though. No matter how we frame it, that's new.

 

👍🙈🤭 it’s new, and it’s the new JH. Pretty obvious to Most.

[moonslav59]

Henry has never been outspent by a dozen other teams 2 seasons in a row, though. No matter how we frame it, that's new.

 

True. I chalk that up to a handful of owners going bonkers more than JH cutting spending. Our 2022 spending was the 3rd most, ever. (CB Tax budget) 2023 was 4th most.

 

1. 2019

2. 2018

3. 2022

4. 2023

5. 2021 (pro-rated)

 

Of course, to be fair, if you factor in inflation, maybe these rankings get jumbled.

[moonslav59]

Fangraphs projects the Sox at 80-82. Seems close.

 

4. NYY

5. TBR

7. BAL

9. TOR

19. BOS (9th in AL)

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

Fangraphs projects the Sox at 80-82. Seems close.

 

4. NYY

5. TBR

7. BAL

9. TOR

19. BOS (9th in AL)

 

5GGlyphs flips the script:

Tor- Bos- Bal- Tamp- NYY

[moonslav59]

Projected fWAR:

4.3 Devers

2.7 Casas

2.7 Story

2.4 O'Neill

2.0 Grissom

1.8 Yoshida

1.6 Rafaela

1.2 Duran

1.0 Abreu

0.9 McGuire + 0.4 Wong

0.5 Valdez +0.3 Reyes

o.4 Refsnyder

 

2.6 Bello

2.0 Pivetta

1.9 Crawford

1.8 Whitlock

1.7 Houck

In the ALE, only the Yanks have 5 SP'ers at 1.7 or higher.

 

0.8 Martin

0.7 Jansen

0.6 Wink

0.5 Criswell

[mvp 78]

True. I chalk that up to a handful of owners going bonkers more than JH cutting spending. Our 2022 spending was the 3rd most, ever. (CB Tax budget) 2023 was 4th most.

 

1. 2019

2. 2018

3. 2022

4. 2023

5. 2021 (pro-rated)

 

Of course, to be fair, if you factor in inflation, maybe these rankings get jumbled.

 

Maybe???????????????????

[mvp 78]

Dude's whiplashed from the failed pitching contracts, but there's no reason to believe he'll never spend again. Another thing is, does it really matter how much he spends if the team is winning? Trying to frame for context, because I couldn't give less of a s*** about payroll if the team is good.

 

They met with Yamamoto and made some sort of offer. My guess is that they'll spend on a certain pitcher type at the right time. I think they just looked at this year and figured it wasn't worth spending money on this club with this FA class.

[notin]

They met with Yamamoto and made some sort of offer. My guess is that they'll spend on a certain pitcher type at the right time. I think they just looked at this year and figured it wasn't worth spending money on this club with this FA class.

 

Oh so NOW you’ve come around to that theory.

[mvp 78]

Oh so NOW you’ve come around to that theory.

 

Now? They just don't like where the current roster is positioned w/o Anthony/Mayer/Teel and weren't going to jump on anyone unless the perfect option (Yamamoto) was there.

[Bellhorn04]

Now? They just don't like where the current roster is positioned w/o Anthony/Mayer/Teel and weren't going to jump on anyone unless the perfect option (Yamamoto) was there.

 

And of course it remains to be seen how perfect Yamamoto was.

 

Personally I think his contract is the riskiest in history.

[Bellhorn04]

Now? They just don't like where the current roster is positioned w/o Anthony/Mayer/Teel and weren't going to jump on anyone unless the perfect option (Yamamoto) was there.

 

A stance that lines up nicely with POCKETING some dough.

[mvp 78]

And of course it remains to be seen how perfect Yamamoto was.

 

Personally I think his contract is the riskiest in history.

 

"Perfect" in terms of how they perceived that guy to be at the time. Yes, there was significant risk because you don't know how his game would translate as well as the inherent risk of pitcher injury. Typically, Japanese pitchers do well. Maybe he's more Yu Darvish than Pedro Martinez (very good not great), but that's not a bad thing. I don't see him flaming out unless it's due to injury.

[Bellhorn04]

"Perfect" in terms of how they perceived that guy to be at the time. Yes, there was significant risk because you don't know how his game would translate as well as the inherent risk of pitcher injury. Typically, Japanese pitchers do well. Maybe he's more Yu Darvish than Pedro Martinez (very good not great), but that's not a bad thing. I don't see him flaming out unless it's due to injury.

 

$376 million is a lot of dough.

[mvp 78]

A stance that lines up nicely with POCKETING some dough.

 

Pas de commentaire.

[mvp 78]

$376 million is a lot of dough.

 

Have you seen the cost of translators lately?

[Dipre]

A stance that lines up nicely with POCKETING some dough.

 

You, sir, seem to be looking forward to engaging in a rousing bout of fisticuffs with myself.