A Realistic View at 2024: Part I

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

I don't either.

 

It's like they realize they have a shortage of decent SP'ers in their system, so they want to throw them all against the wall to see which 4-5 will stick.

 

In the process, they may end up messing up some guys who have seemingly found a comfortable nitche as long men or 1-2 IP set-up guys.

 

One really good reason to sign Monty is to avoid doing this, but the Sox FO likely views this as a reason not to sign Monty.

 

 

You meant to type "excuse"

[vegasbob]

I really hate the day off, 2 game series, then day off crap. It does not help the rotation as much as having 5-6 games between days off.

 

Don't underestimate how those first 12 games , including 9 on the West Coast, after a final 2 warmups at Rangers, could make or break this marginal team in less than 10% of the season. A 3-9 start could end the year quickly, or a good road trip , plus home opener series with O's, say 7-5 , could get this motley crew on track.

[mvp 78]

From Bradford today:

 

Breslow added, "Sure there are guys who bounce back and forth between the rotation and the bullpen. And guys who had traditional metrics you wouldn’t get super excited about. And then you see these guys and you’re like, ‘Wait a second, that’s a big league pitcher.’"

 

"This is something we envisioned," said Red Sox manager Alex Cora before Sunday's win over the Blue Jays. "These guys are talented. Tanner, you saw it (Saturday) with the velocity. He threw strikes. Whit, his changeup is better. It’s something we have been searching for for two years. I think Bello is making strides with his slider. Even some guys in the bullpen, they are throwing strikes. But it’s not just throwing strikes, it’s quality strikes. We have been getting a lot of swings and misses, which is important."

 

"I think everybody looks at their players a little bit differently when you’re here and in-person. But it is a very dangerous thing to do," explained Breslow. "I would point to pitch data stabilizes more than most other data. Changes in velocity and changes in pitch shape, those things tend to be real and predictive and lasting. But, yes, it can be a very, very dangerous things to start to draw conclusion based on watching things day to day. I think the biggest difference is just this: A clear understanding and alignment with every one of these guys for what they need to do to be successful major league pitchers. I think together we have created that."

[dgalehouse]

Starting off the season on the left coast will be a challenge. It seems like coming out of the gate doing well, often sets the tone for the season and helps build confidence. After the road trip, the schedule does look a little easier for 3-4 weeks...

 

@ SEA 3

@OAK 3

Day Off

@LAA 3

Day Off

BAL 3

LAA 3

CLE 4

@PIT 3

Day Off

@CLE 3

CHC 3

Day Off

SFG 3

@MIN 3

Day Off

@ ATL 2

Day Off

WSH 3

 

Then some tough games... 10 gms out of 16 v TBR & BAL.

 

That is about as soft an early schedule as you could possibly hope to get. The Sox need to capitalize on it and get off to a good start. That would get the fans more enthusiastic.

[mvp 78]

That is about as soft an early schedule as you could possibly hope to get. The Sox need to capitalize on it and get off to a good start. That would get the fans more enthusiastic.

 

They won't. If the games were at home, maybe they'd have a shot.

[moonslav59]

That is about as soft an early schedule as you could possibly hope to get. The Sox need to capitalize on it and get off to a good start. That would get the fans more enthusiastic.

 

Soft, except we usually suck on left coast trips, but yes.

[mvp 78]

Soft, except we usually suck on left coast trips, but yes.

 

We'll have to see if the affect of a West Coast Swing TM at the start of a season is minimized.

[Hugh2]

That is about as soft an early schedule as you could possibly hope to get. The Sox need to capitalize on it and get off to a good start. That would get the fans more enthusiastic.

 

Sox had a winning record against teams above .500 last year (despite being bullied by the Rays). It was the bad teams they couldn't beat.

 

Maybe we don't want an easy schedule early.

[moonslav59]

We'll have to see if the affect of a West Coast Swing TM at the start of a season is minimized.

 

I hope so. We should be able to beat OAK and LAA, anywhere. If we are going to do anything, this year, winning games like these should be expected.

 

We have had a good west coast trip, in the last few years, and several so-so ones.

 

2023

4-5 v SDP, LAA & AZ (0-3 v LAA)

1-2 v OAK after playing at CWS

3-3 v SEA & SFG

(I can't remember west coast trips ever being divided into 3, before, but playing SFG, SDP & AZ is not common.)

 

2022

8-2 v OAK (3-0), LAA (won first 3 then lost 4th), 2-1 v SEA (including a heartbreaking 7-6 loss as Robles blew the 9th inning save.)

 

2021

3-3 v OAK & LAA

2-1 v SEA after playing at CWS

 

We opened the 2019 season on an 11 game western trip: 3-8

1-3 @ SEA

1-3 @ OAK

1-2 @ AZ

And the rest was history.

 

 

[Bellhorn04]

Sox had a winning record against teams above .500 last year (despite being bullied by the Rays). It was the bad teams they couldn't beat.

 

Maybe we don't want an easy schedule early.

 

We do have an easy early schedule. But starting on the West Coast gives us the Willies. That was how 2019 started.

[moonslav59]

Sox had a winning record against teams above .500 last year (despite being bullied by the Rays). It was the bad teams they couldn't beat.

 

Maybe we don't want an easy schedule early.

 

With no evidence to back this up, it seemed like we also held our own vs the best SP'ers and did poorer than expected v unknown or 4/5 slot pitchers.

[Bellhorn04]

With no evidence to back this up, it seemed like we also held our own vs the best SP'ers and did poorer than expected v unknown or 4/5 slot pitchers.

 

There's much more randomness in all that than we care to admit, I think.

 

Kimmi where are you?

[moonslav59]

There's much more randomness in all that than we care to admit, I think.

 

Kimmi where are you?

 

I'm not sure how easy it would be to dig up the numbers- like what are the numbers of the top 30 fWAR pitchers vs the Sox, then 31-60, 61-90, 91-120, 121-150.

[mvp 78]

There's much more randomness in all that than we care to admit, I think.

 

Kimmi where are you?

 

She got tired of the sausage party and the negativity and/or her crew abandoned her.

[mvp 78]

I'm not sure how easy it would be to dig up the numbers- like what are the numbers of the top 30 fWAR pitchers vs the Sox, then 31-60, 61-90, 91-120, 121-150.

 

That sounds like a perfect job for you today.

[Bellhorn04]

I'm not sure how easy it would be to dig up the numbers- like what are the numbers of the top 30 fWAR pitchers vs the Sox, then 31-60, 61-90, 91-120, 121-150.

 

Sounds like a wickedly time-consuming exercise in futility.

[mvp 78]

Sounds like a wickedly time-consuming exercise in futility.

 

Perfect for moon.

[moonslav59]

Perfect for moon.

 

Not my cup of tea.

[Nick]

So basically we will pay $38M to Giolito for at best one year of service. Nice signing by the Sox. Giolito had all the upside on that deal. Pitch good, opt out. Get hurt. $19M to rehab.

 

This is why John Henry is pissed off all the time.

 

That's on the heels of of Chris Sale's extension fiasco.

 

Take away all the waste and we have enough money to sign even Betts.

Edited March 7, 2024 by Nick

[moonslav59]

So basically we will pay $38M to Giolito for at best one year of service. Nice signing by the Sox. Giolito had all the upside on that deal. Pitch good, opt out. Get hurt. $19M to rehab.

 

This is why John Henry is pissed off all the time.

 

That's on the heels of of Chris Sale's extension fiasco.

 

Take away all the waste and we have enough money to sign even Betts.

 

JH may never approve a pitcher signing, again!

 

Even the $10M/1 deals sucked.

[moonslav59]

Pirates signed Eric Lauer to a minor league deal. He seemed like a good gamble as a low cost. I did not expect this low a cost.

[notin]

Pirates signed Eric Lauer to a minor league deal. He seemed like a good gamble as a low cost. I did not expect this low a cost.

 

The Sox are going with youth and zero depth. Move all the young middle relievers to the rotation, then don’t go get any middle relievers to replace them!

 

Not a plan I like…

[moonslav59]

The Sox are going with youth and zero depth. Move all the young middle relievers to the rotation, then don’t go get any middle relievers to replace them!

 

Not a plan I like…

 

Lauer would have been some decent depth, here.

[mvp 78]

The Sox are going with youth and zero depth. Move all the young middle relievers to the rotation, then don’t go get any middle relievers to replace them!

 

Not a plan I like…

 

The depth is more AAA youth I guess? Gambrell, Fitts, Wikelman.

[moonslav59]

The depth is more AAA youth I guess? Gambrell, Fitts, Wikelman.

 

soxprospects.com now has Wink listed as the Sox sixth SP'er and Walter and Criswell as the 1-2 starters in AAA. Wikelman starts the season at AA.

[Larry Cook]

So basically we will pay $38M to Giolito for at best one year of service. Nice signing by the Sox. Giolito had all the upside on that deal. Pitch good, opt out. Get hurt. $19M to rehab.

 

This is why John Henry is pissed off all the time.

 

That's on the heels of of Chris Sale's extension fiasco.

 

Take away all the waste and we have enough money to sign even Betts.

 

Is it ironic that the guy we traded sale for (Grissom) is hurt?

Is it ironic that the guy to take sale’s place in the rotation (giolito) is hurt?

[moonslav59]

Is it ironic that the guy we traded sale for (Grissom) is hurt?

Is it ironic that the guy to take sale’s place in the rotation (giolito) is hurt?

 

No & no.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

Is it ironic that the guy we traded sale for (Grissom) is hurt?

Is it ironic that the guy to take sale’s place in the rotation (giolito) is hurt?

 

No. It is more and moronic. Both had issues last year, as did O'Neill (currently sidelined with a leg strain), and Cron...

 

... subsequently, each became available to a team like the Red Sox.

[notin]

No. It is more and moronic. Both had issues last year, as did O'Neill (currently sidelined with a leg strain), and Cron...

 

... subsequently, each became available to a team like the Red Sox.

 

Grissom and Giolito had injury problems last year?

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

Grissom and Giolito had injury problems last year?

 

No one on this forum except you typed that... but Griz did have a hip injury, and a lot of baseballs thrown by Gio were injured by home run hitters.