A Realistic View at 2024: Part I

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

That’s a good point.

 

If the Sox are going to try to be Tampa that build from within, a big part of that is the ridiculously early contract extension. The beauty of that incentive-laden contract Cole Keith got is, even if he flops, his $4.7mill AAV isn’t exactly a boat anchor and actually lines up pretty well with utility infielder money.

 

If the Sox want some positive press with their fans, extend as many of Bello, Casas, Mayer, Anthony and Teel as you can…

 

Yes. Isn't that part of the plan they've confessed to?

 

Show the world they're not lying this time -- by actually keeping that core we're all counting on together... through all the annual competing for worlds championships.

[Bellhorn04]

Rankings does matter, more, but at least 3 of the teams that passed us were spending like maniacs, and I did not expect JH to follow their path.

 

Also, part of the reason our big jump in spending from "20 to'22 occurred was because there was such a massive budget cut from '19 to '20. If you look at our payroll from '18 and '19 to '22, there is a slight drop:

 

$192 in '17

$239 in '18

$244 in '19

 

$207 in '21

$236 in '22

$226 in '23, so far

 

All that really matters right now is, if the Sox are 10th or lower in payroll 2 years in a row, it's unprecedented and it's a big deal.

[moonslav59]

How many major extensions have the Rays actually handed out over the years?

 

Longoria-now that was a beauty, but a long time ago.

 

Jeffrey Springs-might work out OK.

 

Wander Franco-not going to work out OK.

 

Blake Snell (Traded for 4 players)

 

Brandon Lowe (has dipped but still pretty good)

 

Matt Moore (traded for 3 players)

 

Chris Archer (traded for Glasnow and Meadows)

 

Kevin Kiermaier (one of the few to end his long contract with TBR)

 

Ben Zobrist (traded for 3 players)

 

(They probably should have traded Longoria before his production dipped.)

[Bellhorn04]

Blake Snell (Traded for 4 players)

 

Brandon Lowe (has dipped but still pretty good)

 

Matt Moore (traded for 3 players)

 

Chris Archer (traded for Glasnow and Meadows)

 

Kevin Kiermaier (one of the few to end his long contract with TBR)

 

Ben Zobrist (traded for 3 players)

 

(They probably should have traded Longoria before his production dipped.)

 

All those guys signed extensions? Or did you think I said major trades?

Edited January 28, 2024 by Bellhorn04

[notin]

All those guys signed extensions? Or did you think I said major trades?

 

All of them signed extensions. Many were dealt towards the ends of those extensions…

[moonslav59]

All that really matters right now is, if the Sox are 10th or lower in payroll 2 years in a row, it's unprecedented and it's a big deal.

 

Yes, I said "rankings matter."

 

It's a major reason we have been passed in the W-L standings, along with too few major impact farm impact players and mistakes made on the spending we did make.

 

Raising spending by $51M from '20 to '22 could have been enough to compete, if we had spent it correctly and had more farm help than just Houck in a 5 year stretch.

 

BTW, here are the spending increases by a few teams:

 

2021>2023 in $Ms

207>300>375 NYM +167

111>161>242 TEX +133

166>198>258 TOR +92

208>268>296 NYY +88

173>214>249 ATL +76

216>235>291 SDP +75

166>181>230 CHC +74

209>244>255 PHI +46

 

208>236>226 BOS +18 (It was +28M until the drop in '23)

 

Dodgers up $89M from '00>'22 and $64M from '00 to '23

 

[notin]

Blake Snell (Traded for 4 players)

 

Brandon Lowe (has dipped but still pretty good)

 

Matt Moore (traded for 3 players) hi

 

Chris Archer (traded for Glasnow and Meadows)

 

Kevin Kiermaier (one of the few to end his long contract with TBR)

 

Ben Zobrist (traded for 3 players)

 

(They probably should have traded Longoria before his production dipped.)

 

 

Also Pete Fairbanks…

[moonslav59]

All those guys signed extensions? Or did you think I said major trades?

 

Yes, all signed major extensions with TBR...and more....

11 yrs W Franco '22 + option

7 yrs Longoria '08

6 yrs Archer '14 + options

6 yrs B Lowe '19 + options

6 yrs Kiermaier + option

6 yrs Price '07

6 Crawford '05

 

5 Moore '12 + 2 options

5 Snell '19

5 Niemann '05

4 yrs Zobrist '10

4 yrs Shields '08 + 3 options

4 yrs W Davis '11 + 2 options

3 yrs Kazmir '09 + 1 option

3 yrs D Wheeler '08 + 1 option

3 yrs R Hanigan '14, H Bell +1 option '12, D Span 3+1 '16

 

The Rays are for real in extending players, and yes, they trade many when their cost gets higher.

 

Count the option years:

12 Franco

8 Archer

8 Lowe

7 Longoria

7 Kiermaier

7 Moore

7 Sheilds

6 Price

6 Crawford

6 Wade Davis

5 Snell

5 Niemann

4 Fairbanks, Kazmir & Wheeler

 

Edited January 28, 2024 by moonslav59

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

Yes, all signed major extensions with TBR. (I think Zobrist was just 3 years, but the rest were longer.)

 

Tampa fans must have been overjoyed while the team was tanking that they could still root for a favorite Ray winning the World Series for KC and the Cubs.

 

(makes me feel all mookie inside)

[moonslav59]

Tampa fans must have been overjoyed while the team was tanking that they could still root for a favorite Ray winning the World Series for KC and the Cubs.

 

(makes me feel all mookie inside)

 

They did get some nice returns on players traded away, at times.

 

For Matt Garza, they got Chris Archer, Fuld & Chirino

For Archer, they got Glasnow & Meadows

For Shields & Davis, they got Odorizzi, Mike Myers and Mike Montgomery

 

I can't remember all the trades: there were so many.

 

In researching all the Rays' extensions given, the sheer number surprised even me.

 

Edited January 28, 2024 by moonslav59

[Bellhorn04]

Yes, all signed major extensions with TBR...and more....

11 yrs W Franco '22 + option

7 yrs Longoria '08

6 yrs Archer '14 + options

6 yrs B Lowe '19 + options

6 yrs Kiermaier + option

6 yrs Price '07

6 Crawford '05

 

5 Moore '12 + 2 options

5 Snell '19

5 Niemann '05

4 yrs Zobrist '10

4 yrs Shields '08 + 3 options

4 yrs W Davis '11 + 2 options

3 yrs Kazmir '09 + 1 option

3 yrs D Wheeler '08 + 1 option

3 yrs R Hanigan '14, H Bell +1 option '12, D Span 3+1 '16

 

The Rays are for real in extending players, and yes, they trade many when their cost gets higher.

 

Count the option years:

12 Franco

8 Archer

8 Lowe

7 Longoria

7 Kiermaier

7 Moore

7 Sheilds

6 Price

6 Crawford

6 Wade Davis

5 Snell

5 Niemann

4 Fairbanks, Kazmir & Wheeler

 

 

Wow, was I poorly informed on that topic. And I'm getting too lazy to look everything up.

[moonslav59]

Wow, was I poorly informed on that topic. And I'm getting too lazy to look everything up.

 

I knew these guys were masters of early and lengthy extensions, but the numbers I found surprised me, too.

 

There were probably more from before Zobrist and Shields.

 

Some big names on the list, along with the swings and misses.

 

If we are really Tampa Bay North, where are our extensions?

[notin]

I knew these guys were masters of early and lengthy extensions, but the numbers I found surprised me, too.

 

There were probably more from before Zobrist and Shields.

 

Some big names on the list, along with the swings and misses.

 

If we are really Tampa Bay North, where are our extensions?

 

 

I’ve been saying all along that’s the one aspect they’ve been ignoring…

[notin]

Tampa fans must have been overjoyed while the team was tanking that they could still root for a favorite Ray winning the World Series for KC and the Cubs.

 

(makes me feel all mookie inside)

 

 

You do realize there’s a difference between tanking and operating on a small market budget, right?

 

Not every team that doesn’t spend is tanking…

[moonslav59]

I’ve been saying all along that’s the one aspect they’ve been ignoring…

 

Other than trading Mookie & Price (and Beni to a lesser degree), we don 't trade stars away near the end of the control years, either.

 

That was a doozie, but had we traded Bogey, JD, Nate, Sale (earlier), JT, Duvall, Wacha, ERod and others, we'd have a better looking roster, right now.

 

The idea, I believe, was to be like the Rays but to have the ability to keep some of the stars longer or to be able to sign more FAs to plug holes.

 

Trading stars before they decline is an art form that is usually met with disdain by the fanbase.

 

The Rays have countless examples of adding players who have career years and then letting them go, quickly and usually just in time.

 

Look how Bloom was roasted for trading Betts. Imagine the climate, if he had traded Bogey, Nate, JD and others for more than lousy comp picks.

[moonslav59]

You do realize there’s a difference between tanking and operating on a small market budget, right?

 

Not every team that doesn’t spend is tanking…

 

It's the no rings thing that has been the anti-Rays banner.

[notin]

It's the no rings thing that has been the anti-Rays banner.

 

That’s a weak criticism.

 

The Dodgers have won one title since 1988, and yet somehow that means their entire approach is justified!?

 

And that one win was against the title-free Rays! I mean, if the way the Rays do things is considered a failure because they have no titles, why is the Dodgers Way the right way despite winning only one title in the past 36 years, and that one title coming against the “can’t win” Rays!?

[Duran Is The Man]

Other than trading Mookie & Price (and Beni to a lesser degree), we don 't trade stars away near the end of the control years, either.

 

That was a doozie, but had we traded Bogey, JD, Nate, Sale (earlier), JT, Duvall, Wacha, ERod and others, we'd have a better looking roster, right now.

 

The idea, I believe, was to be like the Rays but to have the ability to keep some of the stars longer or to be able to sign more FAs to plug holes.

 

Trading stars before they decline is an art form that is usually met with disdain by the fanbase.

 

The Rays have countless examples of adding players who have career years and then letting them go, quickly and usually just in time.

 

Look how Bloom was roasted for trading Betts. Imagine the climate, if he had traded Bogey, Nate, JD and others for more than lousy comp picks.

 

well....they have a couple of pitching holes to plug right now but they're not "plugging" them. just penny-pinching idiocy by the FO.

[notin]

well....they have a couple of pitching holes to plug right now but they're not "plugging" them. just penny-pinching idiocy by the FO.

 

Is the FO doing the penny pinching? This is starting to feel like ownership…

[notin]

Sox are reportedly interested in RHRP Codi Heuer.

 

If the team plans on employing an opener strategy in 2024, hopefully Cora is smart enough to use an actual good relief pitcher like Heuer and not try it with some AAAA refuse pile fugitive like Joe Jacques or Zack Weiss…

[jad]

That’s a weak criticism.

 

The Dodgers have won one title since 1988, and yet somehow that means their entire approach is justified!?

 

And that one win was against the title-free Rays! I mean, if the way the Rays do things is considered a failure because they have no titles, why is the Dodgers Way the right way despite winning only one title in the past 36 years, and that one title coming against the “can’t win” Rays!?

 

Yeah, the Dodgers suck. I mean who wants to go to Chavez Ravine to see Mookie or Ohtani or Yamamoto when they can go to Fenway and see videos of past RS greats?

[Duran Is The Man]

Is the FO doing the penny pinching? This is starting to feel like ownership…

 

yeah, i said FO but really meant ownership.

[notin]

yeah, i said FO but really meant ownership.

 

I do try to keep the two entire separate although that’s probably not always the right move. Possibly not ever…

[Old Red]

Yeah, the Dodgers suck. I mean who wants to go to Chavez Ravine to see Mookie or Ohtani or Yamamoto when they can go to Fenway and see videos of past RS greats?

 

Visiting fans are also more, and more taking over Fenway Park on a regular basis now too.

[notin]

Yeah, the Dodgers suck. I mean who wants to go to Chavez Ravine to see Mookie or Ohtani or Yamamoto when they can go to Fenway and see videos of past RS greats?

 

If the criticism of the Rays Way is no titles (which I’m constantly reminded of), what’s the benefit of the Dodger Way?

 

Is it because they market them with the slogan “Come see overpriced stars choke in October”?

[moonslav59]

Is the FO doing the penny pinching? This is starting to feel like ownership…

 

Agreed.

 

Like Bloom, I do not think Brez is choosing not to spend money available for him to spend.

[moonslav59]

If the criticism of the Rays Way is no titles (which I’m constantly reminded of), what’s the benefit of the Dodger Way?

 

Is it because they market them with the slogan “Come see overpriced stars choke in October”?

 

...and their ring year was the 2020* season.

[notin]

...and their ring year was the 2020* season.

 

And against the Rays, whose entire plan (I’m told repeatedly) is incapable of winning. So it really shouldn’t count…

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

If the criticism of the Rays Way is no titles (which I’m constantly reminded of), what’s the benefit of the Dodger Way?

 

Is it because they market them with the slogan “Come see overpriced stars choke in October”?

 

For fans, the benefit of the Dodger Way is a perennial contender led by favorite players, year after year after year. It used to be like that in Boston.

 

LA has averaged 94 wins for the past 11 seasons -- and that includes 2020, when they only won 43 (most in majors). It used to be like that in Boston.

 

The Dodgers are defined by star players. Like the Red Sox from 1967 through 2019. Kershaw has been there for 16 years. Jansen was there for 12, Turner for 9. Max Muncy and Chris Taylor are still around, having seen the transition to Betts, Freeman, Smith and Ohtani.

 

Maybe the best thing for fans: the Dodgers might not keep every great player, but they have -- and use -- the resources to always replace them with other greats.

 

It used to be like that when Henry and Werner owned the Red Sox.

[moonslav59]

To account for the 2020 season, let's use the .556 win% (90 wins.)

 

Since 2008, a .556 + % ...

16 Seasons

12 LAD, including 11 straight

10 TBR

9 NYY

8 BOS (13 in last 22 and 14 in last 25)

 

Wins since 2008:

1458 LAD

1419 NYY

1366 TBR

1360 STL

1334 BOS

1329 ATL

1296 MIL

 

Since 2018:

558 LAD

530 HOU

515 ATL

511 TBR

509 NYY

487 MIL

467 CLE

464 BOS

463 STL

453 MIN

 

Edited January 28, 2024 by moonslav59