A Realistic View at 2024: Part I

[Bellhorn04]

I'm actually very optimistic... about 2025 or 2026.

 

 

John Henry loves you.

[mvp 78]

You would have to ask Montgomery himself. But I doubt he’ll take less money to play anywhere; players don’t hire Scott Boras so they can take less money…

 

moon was the one who stated he would take less money from TEX. Why?

[notin]

moon was the one who stated he would take less money from TEX. Why?

 

Maybe because it’s the status quo?

 

Maybe because with no state income taxes it’s worth more?

 

Maybe he wants another ring?

[Randy Red Sox]

Why do you think he'd take a discount from TEX?

 

Because 1) he is familiar there. 2) Texas is a winning team. 3) there are no taxes in Texas. Need anymore reasons?

[notin]

Because 1) he is familiar there. 2) Texas is a winning team. 3) there are no taxes in Texas. Need anymore reasons?

 

Maybe he loves barbecue. So both Texas as St. Louis are in play while he waits for Nashville to get a team…

[Old Red]

The word is Monty wants to top Nola’s 7yr/$172, and Snell reportedly turned down 5yr/$150M from the Yankees, so where things end up, and with who will be interesting to see, and I don’t think there will be any bargains here. Someone will pay, but not JH.

[Old Red]

moon was the one who stated he would take less money from TEX. Why?

 

Moon isn’t to reliable, and was wrong on Strohman.

[mvp 78]

The word is Monty wants to top Nola’s 7yr/$172, and Snell reportedly turned down 5yr/$150M from the Yankees, so where things end up, and with who will be interesting to see, and I don’t think there will be any bargains here. Someone will pay, but not JH.

 

Nola is a better pitcher than Montgomery. Him holding out for more is silly.

[mvp 78]

Because 1) he is familiar there. 2) Texas is a winning team. 3) there are no taxes in Texas. Need anymore reasons?

 

He pitched 11 regular season games there.

[mvp 78]

Moon isn’t to reliable, and was wrong on Strohman.

 

When a poster says something, I'd just like to know where the info is coming from or if it's just being made up. On this, it's probably coming from local sports radio yahoos where "oh he'll take less to play here" is the hope?

[Old Red]

Nola is a better pitcher than Montgomery. Him holding out for more is silly.

 

Boris will milk it for as long as he can to get as much as he can.

[notin]

He pitched 11 regular season games there.

 

And they were wonderful games he’ll treasure forever!

[mvp 78]

Players so rarely give a discount, it just seems odd that people think Montgomery would give TEX one in this case.

[notin]

Players so rarely give a discount, it just seems odd that people think Montgomery would give TEX one in this case.

 

I don’t think he would, either. But that doesn’t mean I can’t speculate on reasons why he might.

 

I think if a player hires Boras, the notion of him taking any discount is best disregarded…

[moonslav59]

John Henry loves you.

 

It doesn't make me any less pissed at him about 2020-2023 and maybe 2025.

[moonslav59]

moon was the one who stated he would take less money from TEX. Why?

 

I said he "might."

 

Because he wants to play there, apparently.

Less taxes.

Cheaper cost of living

Winning team

 

I'm not sure why you exploded that comment.

[mvp 78]

I said he "might."

 

Because he wants to play there, apparently.

Less taxes.

Cheaper cost of living

Winning team

 

I'm not sure why you exploded that comment.

 

"Exploded."

[moonslav59]

When a poster says something, I'd just like to know where the info is coming from or if it's just being made up. On this, it's probably coming from local sports radio yahoos where "oh he'll take less to play here" is the hope?

 

You also like to misquote and assume things not there.

 

I said he "might" take less. (maybe it's $10K less.)

 

You quote me as saying he "would."

 

If I try to go into great detail to explain my position, so you don't misunderstand it, you accuse me of having posts that are too long.

 

[moonslav59]

"Exploded."

 

hyperbole

[moonslav59]

Players so rarely give a discount, it just seems odd that people think Montgomery would give TEX one in this case.

 

Okay, you don't think he will. I think he might.

 

No need to "explode" over it.

[mvp 78]

You also like to misquote and assume things not there.

 

I said he "might" take less. (maybe it's $10K less.)

 

You quote me as saying he "would."

 

If I try to go into great detail to explain my position, so you don't misunderstand it, you accuse me of having posts that are too long.

 

 

If he might take less, why would he do so? What are the indications?

 

It doesn't change the question.

[mvp 78]

hyperbole

 

Wouldn't want to misquote your hyperbole!

[mvp 78]

Okay, you don't think he will. I think he might.

 

No need to "explode" over it.

 

Oh, I won't.

[Hugh2]

One has to wonder how much of being paid the most, or maximing your contract is an ego thing.

 

Like, would Montgomery really chose texas @ $23 million over Boston at $24 because of a tax difference? he might, but if that was the case I think there's enough data out there to prove it one way or another if one wants to go back and look at all free agent signigns coming out of texas vs. California/New York/Massachusettes the past 10 years.

[dgalehouse]

The Sox still have a chance to be competitive, but a lot of things have to happen. Continued development from Bello, Casas and Duran. Good years from Giolito and Pivetta. More good work from the bullpen. Story starting to earn his money. At least one of the kids like Abreu and Rafaela doing well. And so forth. It's a lot to ask for, but it's all we can hope for at the moment. There are always surprises in baseball. Don't give up yet.

[moonslav59]

If he might take less, why would he do so? What are the indications?

 

It doesn't change the question.

 

I gave a list of reasons I think he might. That's all I got.

 

You misquote me, disagree (fine) and won't let go.

 

I'm moving on.

 

[moonslav59]

The Sox still have a chance to be competitive, but a lot of things have to happen. Continued development from Bello, Casas and Duran. Good years from Giolito and Pivetta. More good work from the bullpen. Story starting to earn his money. At least one of the kids like Abreu and Rafaela doing well. And so forth. It's a lot to ask for, but it's all we can hope for at the moment. There are always surprises in baseball. Don't give up yet.

 

We do have a chance, with a near perfect alignment of the stars, but with so little help from the FO, it really leaves a sour taste in my mouth. (Maybe it's just the Paxlovid.)

 

At some point, I'll try and present an optimist's view at 2024 without going beyond the bounds of what can be considered "realistic."

 

I do think, if just about everything goes right, we could compete for a WC slot.

 

Some say, that's what happened in 2013 and 2021.

Edited January 12, 2024 by moonslav59

[moonslav59]

The Optimist, but still realist, view at 2024:

 

We may need close to 30 of these 32 things to "go right" in 2024 to have a chance at some semblance of joy or glory:

 

1. Devers: He won't turn 28 until after the 2024 season. He is now in the peak prime of his career. It's not unthinkable to think he could "go off," this year. To what extent is up for debate. He's had had an OPS+ above 132 in 3 of the last 4 full seasons, and has had some pretty long stretches of decent defense, too. Could he hit over 150 in OPS+ and put together a full season of average defense?

 

2. Story: This guy might hold the widest range of projectable outcomes for 2024, based on his health and low vs high points in his career. He will be 31 in 2024, so it's not like he cannot still have a big year. He is still an excellent defensive SS. He can continue that. He's has OPS+ between 120-127 four times in his career. I don't think projecting a career high OPS+ is realistic, and many point to the COL splits as skewing his numbers beyond recognition. I'm thinking Fenway is a nice park to hit, too, and maybe a 108-112 OPS+ is not outlandish.

 

3. Yoshida: He's another tough cookie to crack. Only one year in the bigs and the whole cultural adjustment thing could lead to a nice second year. He ended the season with a .783 OPS and a 109 OPS+. He was doing fine in mid July (over .880) and was still over .850 on August 1st and .820 on Sept 4th, but he dropped off at the end. Will DH'ing help him stay strong, all year? I'm thinking .850 (125 OPS+) is within reason.

 

4. Casas: I might feel more confident about this guy than anyone else. He's such a hard worker and studies the game, hard. He missed some time, so just playing 20-25 more games, alone, could be a big boost. He ended the season at .858 (129 OPS+.) He ended the season with a .922 OPS over his last 106 games and 406 PAs. I may get push back on this, but I think he can come close to repeating this, over a full 2024 season: .900 and a an OPS+ over 140 or 150.

 

5. O'Neill: He'll turn 29, next year, so a career year is possible. Injuries have not helped him, but that 2021 season jumps out as a season, I'm hoping he can come close to repeating: GG defense and a .912 OPS (148 OPS+.) Could he play good D and hit .850+ (125 OPS+) in 2024? I'm thinking he can.

 

6. Duran: Another tough guy to project. The 121 OPS+ in 102 games in 2024 is very promising. Even his D looked better, but still not average, IMO. I'm thinking continued improvement on D (close to avg in LF) and a 115+ OPS+ is not a wild idea.

 

7. Grissom: He's got a 105 OPS+ by age 22. He was not a good defensive SS, but maybe he can be okay at 2B. Okay, sure as hell beats having the worst D at 2B, like we did, last year. I'm thinking he can top that 105 OPS+ and play average D at 2B for 150 games.

 

8. Wong and 9. McGuire: Both are young enough to improve. They both had an 80 OPS+, and I'm going to say I think 85-95 is not a bad guess. The D must improve. Working with many of the same pitchers on the staff should help them improve their results.

 

10. Reyes and 11. Refsnyder: Both should have pretty clear roles for 2024. Ref has been a top 25-30 batter vs LHPs in MLB since 2022. Reyes ended up over .710, and was not as bad at 2B as others. I'm guessing these two can keep up with the average bench players in MLB, if used as they should be.

 

12. Rafaela and 13. Abreu: These guys could surprise- in either direction. Rafaela is great on D, while Abreu seems pretty good. Their bats are largely a big guess, but maybe, combined, they can hit between .735 and .755.

 

14. Extended everyday player depth: EValdez, Dalbec, DHam and anyone added to the 40, during the year (Anthony? Teel? Yorke? Mayer?) Hard to guess, here. Maybe nothing great but nothing so bad, it's a game changer.

 

15. Bello: It's hard to imagine us doing anything joyful without this guy leading the staff. Maybe start by going from 28 GS & 157 IP to 33 GS and 175+ IP. From game 3 to game 26: the team went 16-8 3.39 ERA (4.08 FIP.) I'm thinking 3.50 (4.00 FIP.)

 

16. Giolito: Simple: be the 2019-2021 Gio: 3.47 ERA (129 ERA+) 3.54 and not the 2022-2023 one. I'm thinking 3.75 (3.75) in 30 GS and 170+ IP.

 

17. Pivetta: He has a 103 ERA+ with the Sox. I'm thinking a 4.35 (105 ERA+) and 30 GS/ 175 IP.

 

18. Houck, 19. Crawford, 20. Whitlock: Looks like 2 might start, which likely won't help, but I think, combined, they can improve, significantly over their 2023 numbers.

 

21. Winckowski and 22, Schreiber: Wink went up/ Schreiber went down. I think, combined these two should be pretty good set-up men and be better than 2023.

 

23. Martin and 24. Jansen: I'm going to just say, "repeat 2024."

 

25. Bernardino, 26. Slaten (Rule 5) and 27. Mata (no options): We don't need greatness from these 3. If just two do okay and give us better innings that the scrubs we had last year, it should be a plus.

 

28.Max Castillo, Wikelman and anyone the might add (Fitts or Gambrell) don't have to do much to be better than last year's scrubs.

 

29. Campbell, Criswell, Weissert, Kelly, Murphy, Walter and any additions (Guerrero, Benitez or Olivarez:) To me, this could be an area we get a boost, even to some sort of surprising level- better than Schreiber 2022 or Bernardino 2023.

 

30. Team defense is bound to improve as Story plays more, Yoshida DH's more and Grissom replaces the clown carousel at 2B.

 

31. Our coaching staff makes less mistakes.

 

32. Breslow makes better in season moves than Bloom did.

 

Looking back at all this, maybe even 25 of 32 might get us somewhere.

 

 

 

[moonslav59]

The "Realistic View" remains very bleak.

[a700hitter]

The stars would have to align perfectly for the ‘24 Sox to play .500 ball.