A Realistic View at 2024: Part I

[Old Red]

Fans almost always judge in hindsight, although in Story's case, we all knew he has arm issues, when we signed him.

 

If you look at today's FA prices, and the numbers Story put up, even if just looking at his away numbers while with COL, $140M/6 looks llike a good deal.

 

I'm not buying the idea that we should wait until we think we can win to pounce with spending. While I do think the team core might look better in 2025 or 2026 than 2024, we could add some pieces that could help us now and then. Maybe Gray's age is worrisome for 2026, but we did not have to sign Ohtani or Yamo to get to serious competitive levels.

 

Hell, I see a way we can still get to a point where we should be playoffs competitors: sign Monty, Stroman or Imanaga and Teoscar. This would likely put us over the tax line, but not the second one, and if we traded Jansen or Yoshida, we could stay under the line,

 

It's not rocket science. We can compete and still keep our top prospects intact without going over the tax line.

The team core should have been Mookie, Bogey, and Raffy, and pieces should have been added to that. None of the so called future now may never add up to these three.

[notin]

I'm never angry at the number of apologists justifying what the rich and powerful do. I'm just surprised they have nothing better to do with their intellects.

 

Right. We should use our intellect for much greater purposes, like complaining about how a baseball team is run on an Internet forum completely separated from any audience that could react in a positive to such negativity.

 

Catharsis is useful, but don’t confuse it with meaningful protest…

[moonslav59]

I think that you are right. If this franchise continues to cut payroll while at the same time making a large profit, I'm just not that interested in following them anymore. I'm one of those loyal to a fault kind of guys also but if they aren't actually reinvesting profits to improve then that is a clear message that tells me I a fool for following them. Now on the other hand, if they actually do something to help the major league team this season, I will be back on the train. I don't buy the long time plan toward improvement

 

Good post. I will add that the Sox were making money hand over fist for the 30 years prior to the 2004 ring, yet we kept watching, knowing we probably could have won a ring had we signed Catfish Hunter or one of the many studs other teams signed from the 70's to the 90's.

 

Those teams did seem like more fun to watch, despite some years where they looked awful. We also had the continuity of players, many homegrown, that we could become attached to without seeing them all traded or bolting to free agency. (That late 70's purge as the exception.)

 

While I know many top prospects never pan out, I can't help but be excited about our top 4, now. I also think 1 or 2 from the next 5-6 will be impactful.

 

We have a core of 24-29 year olds that are under team control for 3+ years, so I do believe there is a light at the end of the tunnel, except for ONE GLARING HOLE: STARTING PITCHERS!

 

We have enough budget space to sign a SP'er or two and depth of position players to trade for one or two. We just are choosing not to do it. Maybe the grand plan is to do it, next year or in 2026, but I'm tired of waiting.

 

Giolito is just another Kluber, Richards, Perez or Wacha in many ways. I do think he has a better chance at doing well than any of those did, but he is basically a reclamation project at double the pay.

 

I'm still far from optimistic about 2024, but I have not given up on the extended future. Unless a change is strategy is made, I won't be optimistic 1, 2 or 3 years from now, either.

[notin]

This I pretty much agree with. Yes Snell has won two CY. Somebody has to win them, but in between his two CY he hasn’t been all that great. Monty finished 2nd in CY voting, and someone has to do that too. Monty is more sought after now, because he had a good stretch at the end of the season, and into the postseason, and now he’s available. He wasn’t as highly thought of up until then. I have said before both Snell, and Monty would help the Red Sox, but it’s just a question are the worth the length, and cost . I don’t label pitchers, so I don’t get into Ace, or #1 talk. Snell, and Monty are the best available, but that doesn’t mean they are as good as the hype, or what hey will end up with for a contract.

 

This off-season is far too f***ed up if Old Red and I keep making multiple posts in which we agree with each other…

[Bellhorn04]

Fans almost always judge in hindsight, although in Story's case, we all knew he has arm issues, when we signed him.

 

It was a questionable signing not only because of the health concern but because of the questions it raised about the future of Bogaerts.

 

Why not a damn starting pitcher instead?

Edited January 7, 2024 by Bellhorn04

[Bellhorn04]

Honestly it seems like we are retooling our roster to have flexibility for the 2025 season. Looking at free agent pitchers there don’t seem to be a lot of ace types available.

 

That's nonsense, about what was and is available. There have been top-tier starters available, for money only.

 

It's almost like they're succeeding in brainwashing fans into thinking what they're doing is smart rather than just boosting their profits-of course, boosting profits is smart too, right?

[Old Red]

Good post. I will add that the Sox were making money hand over fist for the 30 years prior to the 2004 ring, yet we kept watching, knowing we probably could have won a ring had we signed Catfish Hunter or one of the many studs other teams signed from the 70's to the 90's.

 

Those teams did seem like more fun to watch, despite some years where they looked awful. We also had the continuity of players, many homegrown, that we could become attached to without seeing them all traded or bolting to free agency. (That late 70's purge as the exception.)

 

While I know many top prospects never pan out, I can't help but be excited about our top 4, now. I also think 1 or 2 from the next 5-6 will be impactful.

 

We have a core of 24-29 year olds that are under team control for 3+ years, so I do believe there is a light at the end of the tunnel, except for ONE GLARING HOLE: STARTING PITCHERS!

 

We have enough budget space to sign a SP'er or two and depth of position players to trade for one or two. We just are choosing not to do it. Maybe the grand plan is to do it, next year or in 2026, but I'm tired of waiting.

 

Giolito is just another Kluber, Richards, Perez or Wacha in many ways. I do think he has a better chance at doing well than any of those did, but he is basically a reclamation project at double the pay.

 

I'm still far from optimistic about 2024, but I have not given up on the extended future. Unless a change is strategy is made, I won't be optimistic 1, 2 or 3 years from now, either.

While you keep dreaming abut the future anywhere from now until 2026, or beyond the most important here, and now just keeps passing by. What a waste, because you’ll never get it back.🙈

[moonslav59]

The best way to improve the overall SP is to start at the top, not dumpster dive for a #4 who might work out. Getting a top flight SP moves the entire chain down a notch in terms of expectations. As far as I can tell the best remaining SP is Montgomery-a decent SP but not an ace. Two last place finishes in a row and a third likely should cause the fans to vote with their feet.

 

I totally agree. Trying to slightly improve your 4th or 5th starter is not winning us a ring. Even significantly improving your 3rd starter is not ever going to be enough, unless you already have a solid 1-2, which we are far from having.

 

I do see Monty as a solid #2. He may even be a top 30 pitchers, which might make him a technical #1 in MLB.

 

At this point, he looks like the best option. I'm not expecting us to sign him or Snell. I'm doubtful we even sign Imanaga or Stroman, but part of me is holding out hope that the reason these guys aren't signing is that they are waiting for the Sox to "clear some budget space," so they can make a winning offer.

 

I know, I know- fat chance!

[Tedballgame]

There are not a lot of great starting pitchers out there. The game has become a bullpen game. Find guys that can give you 5 decent innings and build a great bullpen (easier said than done I know). Don't pay 20 million+ for mediocre starters just because they are the best of the bunch.

[notin]

There are very few aces, is the whole point, and even those we call aces have fluctuations in their performance.

 

We can find flaws in virtually every starting pitcher.

 

The next 1965 Koufax or 1999 Pedro just isn't out there, and may never be out there.

 

I really am seeing a lot of the Goldilocks stuff going on this offseason.

 

This guy is too old.

This guy doesn't pitch enough innings.

This guy is too expensive.

This guy gives up too many walks.

This guy has bad numbers against the AL East.

This guy really didn't want to play for the Red Sox.

 

So instead we'll roll with Giolito, Bello, Crawford, Pivetta and Houck.

 

 

As I keep saying, the off-season isn’t over yet. And they’re more to baseball than just bringing in big names. Soxprospects still thinks the Sox will add two pitchers and a right fielder. So they’re more optimistic than even me. (But at least they stopped mentioning Paxton by name.)

 

My sources (re: Google) tell me the Sox are still linked to Teoscar Hernandez and Marcus Stroman. Like these players or not, both do make the 2024 team upgraded over the 2023 team.

 

I’m not big on Teoscar, whom I’ve always thought of as a question mark defensively, especially in RF. And DRS and OAA agree with me. But you know who doesn’t? UZR! UZR liked him as a RF.

 

With Bloom, this might be a deal breaker. Bloom was a clear believer in DRS (when evaluating defense, which he did not do 100% of the time). But with Breslow? Clearly he’s not so dedicated to that one metric, if he is at all.

[Old Red]

This off-season is far too f***ed up if Old Red and I keep making multiple posts in which we agree with each other…

 

Who would have thunk it?

[moonslav59]

There are very few aces, is the whole point, and even those we call aces have fluctuations in their performance.

 

We can find flaws in virtually every starting pitcher.

 

The next 1965 Koufax or 1999 Pedro just isn't out there, and may never be out there.

 

I really am seeing a lot of the Goldilocks stuff going on this offseason.

 

This guy is too old.

This guy doesn't pitch enough innings.

This guy is too expensive.

This guy gives up too many walks.

This guy has bad numbers against the AL East.

This guy really didn't want to play for the Red Sox.

 

So instead we'll roll with Giolito, Bello, Crawford, Pivetta and Houck.

 

Damn straight!

[Bellhorn04]

Snell has 21.1 career bWAR, 13.1 of which have come in TWO SEASONS. Are we basing everything solely on 2023 now?

 

Last 3 seasons is fine with me. We should have a thread on it, after all the signings are done with.

[moonslav59]

This off-season is far too f***ed up if Old Red and I keep making multiple posts in which we agree with each other…

 

You need to take a hard look at your positions, lately.

 

[moonslav59]

As I keep saying, the off-season isn’t over yet. And they’re more to baseball than just bringing in big names. Soxprospects still thinks the Sox will add two pitchers and a right fielder. So they’re more optimistic than even me. (But at least they stopped mentioning Paxton by name.)

 

My sources (re: Google) tell me the Sox are still linked to Teoscar Hernandez and Marcus Stroman. Like these players or not, both do make the 2024 team upgraded over the 2023 team.

 

I’m not big on Teoscar, whom I’ve always thought of as a question mark defensively, especially in RF. And DRS and OAA agree with me. But you know who doesn’t? UZR! UZR liked him as a RF.

 

With Bloom, this might be a deal breaker. Bloom was a clear believer in DRS (when evaluating defense, which he did not do 100% of the time). But with Breslow? Clearly he’s not so dedicated to that one metric, if he is at all.

 

If we end up trading Yoshida, Teoscar makes more sense.

 

I see O'Neill in RF, for what that is worth.

 

I want to avoid us using Duran in CF, but I'm thinking it will happen more than I like. Teoscar kinda forces that to happen.

[Old Red]

There are not a lot of great starting pitchers out there. The game has become a bullpen game. Find guys that can give you 5 decent innings and build a great bullpen (easier said than done I know). Don't pay 20 million+ for mediocre starters just because they are the best of the bunch.

 

Well said. Like I’ve been saying since the FA season started. The hype on starting pitching seems to be, because they are available, and teams are in need more so than the pitches are really that good, and that is driving up the price.

[notin]

Last 3 seasons is fine with me. We should have a thread on it, after all the signings are done with.

 

I like last 3 seasons an evaluation. But it makes using bWAR tough.

 

But if you like bWAR, Nola has been worth 0.018 bWAR/IP over the last 3 years. Stroman has been worth 0.017 bWAR/IP over the last 3 years. Surprisingly close.

 

Of course, Nola has pitched 125 more IP over that stretch…

[moonslav59]

There are not a lot of great starting pitchers out there. The game has become a bullpen game. Find guys that can give you 5 decent innings and build a great bullpen (easier said than done I know). Don't pay 20 million+ for mediocre starters just because they are the best of the bunch.

 

We had and have a great bull pen. We need more guys who can go 5 IP with 1-2 runs allowed- maybe 3 from time to time.

[notin]

There are not a lot of great starting pitchers out there. The game has become a bullpen game. Find guys that can give you 5 decent innings and build a great bullpen (easier said than done I know). Don't pay 20 million+ for mediocre starters just because they are the best of the bunch.

 

 

I do agree Baseball is more and more about the bullpen. Fujinami needs to be higher on the Sox radar…

[Larry Cook]

If anybody can explain the strategic plan over the past four years, I would love to hear their interpretation!!!

 

I get the build up of the farm system!!!

 

I get the over load of middle infielders as trade bait for pitchers!!!

 

But the lack of defenders that can field? The playing players out position? The lack of starters and the rogues gallery of relievers????

 

I thought when hang’em Chaim found the trap door, we would begin to see done semblance of a strategy!!! I guess I still need help figuring out what the strategy is!!!!!

[Old Red]

If anybody can explain the strategic plan over the past four years, I would love to hear their interpretation!!!

 

I get the build up of the farm system!!!

 

I get the over load of middle infielders as trade bait for pitchers!!!

 

But the lack of defenders that can field? The playing players out position? The lack of starters and the rogues gallery of relievers????

 

I thought when hang’em Chaim found the trap door, we would begin to see done semblance of a strategy!!! I guess I still need help figuring out what the strategy is!!!!!

 

The lack of defenders who can field is kind of like having to play the bad cards you were dealt. Players playing out of positions is just bad roster building.

[notin]

The lack of defenders who can field is kind of like having to play the bad cards you were dealt. Players playing out of positions is just bad roster building.

 

Yes and no.

 

Playing Franchy Cordero out of position at 1b? Bad.

 

Playing Kyle Schwarber out of position at 1b? Not bad at all…

[notin]

The lack of defenders who can field is kind of like having to play the bad cards you were dealt. Players playing out of positions is just bad roster building.

 

And sometimes, players playing out of position is on the manager, not the GM/CBO. I’m reasonably sure Dombrowski never told Cora to use Christian Vazquez as a backup 2b…

[Old Red]

Yes and no.

 

Playing Franchy Cordero out of position at 1b? Bad.

 

Playing Kyle Schwarber out of position at 1b? Not bad at all…

 

Schwaber got a standing O for making a routine play. Better than Franchy, but not a 1B.

[Old Red]

And sometimes, players playing out of position is on the manager, not the GM/CBO. I’m reasonably sure Dombrowski never told Cora to use Christian Vazquez as a backup 2b…

 

Bloom probably didn’t tell Cora to keep Kike at SS either.

[notin]

Schwaber got a standing O for making a routine play. Better than Franchy, but not a 1B.

 

He also contributed in other ways that offset his defensive shortcomings. Schwarber at 1b was a net gain, at least in the short term.

 

Maybe a full season of Schwarber at 1b would not be so enjoyable…

[notin]

Bloom probably didn’t tell Cora to keep Kike at SS either.

 

Or put Arroyo in RF.

 

Kike at SS should have never happened. Bloom should have simply signed Andrus…

[moonslav59]

I know my method of ranking the top 150 SP'ers in MLB (30 teams x 5 SP'er) and designating them as #1s (1-30), #2s (31-60) and so on is flawed, but it is no surprise that the Sox don't have any 1s or 2's who were with us all 3 seasons.

 

It is noteworthy, that we have to set the IP level at 200 for 3 seasons (66 per season) to get a sample size of 150. Some pitchers have less IP, because they just came up, other were injured.

 

When people say no good SP'ing is or was available, I scratch my head. Like my system or not, these are some notable pitchers by ranking in fWAR since 2021 (some have injury, age or other concerns):

 

3. Burnes

8. Cease

11. Castillo

12. Ohtani (won't pitch in 2024)

15. F Valdez

16. Monty (in this methodology, he's a solid #1)

17. Gray (signed for a very reasonable contract)

18. Snell (only Ohtani has a higher WAR and less IP)

19. Woodruff (injury)

22. Kershaw (will miss part of '24)

23. Urias (may end up in jail)

24. Beiber (injury?)

27. Nate (with Sox from '21 to '22)

 

#2s

33. Gilbert

34. Stroman

41. ERod

46. Giolito

52. M Keller

54. Mahle

56. Luzardo

57. Montas (despite missing '23)

59. Glasnow

60. J Quintana

 

#3s

61. Wacha

62. L Garcia

63. Manoah

64. C Javier

67. R Ray

69. T Rogers

75. M Perez

77. Pivetta

78. Garrett

84. Manaea

85. Civale

87. Houser

89. Greinke

90. Desclafini

 

Some of these guys are not currently "available," but were recently traded or signed.

 

[Dipre]

Clevinger as a reclamation project, Bauer as a redemption story and Imanaga as an upside play.

 

'24 WS champs!

[moonslav59]

If anybody can explain the strategic plan over the past four years, I would love to hear their interpretation!!!

 

I get the build up of the farm system!!!

 

I get the over load of middle infielders as trade bait for pitchers!!!

 

But the lack of defenders that can field? The playing players out position? The lack of starters and the rogues gallery of relievers????

 

I thought when hang’em Chaim found the trap door, we would begin to see done semblance of a strategy!!! I guess I still need help figuring out what the strategy is!!!!!

 

There doesn't seem to be any coherent or steady plan.

 

That being said, since dumping Kimbrel & Kelly after 2028, our pen is now very strong. I'd say top 5, if we can add a SP'er or two and slide Houck, Crawford or Pivetta to the pen.

 

It's also pretty deep down into AAA and AA.

 

We have 2 massive holes in the top of the rotation. Bello is a fine #3. Giolito is a very fine #4. Between Pivetta, Crawford and Houck, our #5 looks very good, when compared to 25+ other teams.

 

We have a massive problem with defense, although it should be better, if Story can stay healthy and Grissom plays steady but average D at 2b. If we can avoid Duran in CF, our OF could be better with Yoshida at DH, most games and maybe Rafaela and or Abreu play a lot. Catcher might improve as Wong matures. 1B might improve, as Casas sis look better second half of '23. 3B will likely be the same: bad.

 

If we could add good 2 SP'ers or one really good one, and somehow improve the D further (not Teoscar,) that might be enough to get us to a WC slot, and further set us up for 2025-2026, when 2-3 good prospects might make an impact.