A Realistic View at 2024: Part I

[Randy Red Sox]

Probably true

[mvp 78]

I do think we have made great strides in building up the farm system, particularly its depth, but we seem to have a strong top of the farm and bottom of the farm, but not all that much meaningful promise in the middle.

 

To me, there is a big drop off after our top 3 prospects, as is likely true with most teams, but then I see another big drop after #5-6, and an even bigger one after #10.

 

I may be overly dramatizing this, but our 11-35 prospects don't seem all that much better than our 36-60 prospects or those selected by other teams via Rule 5.

 

We have an abundance of just barely better than average prospects.

 

I think there are always "buckets" of prospects. Some of the decent buckets were filled higher at least according to outside scouts based on this year's Rule 5.

 

However, the MiLB portion of the draft doesn't really bring back MEANINGFUL talent for the most part unless you are really hung up on guys like Kaleb Ort, Joe Jacques and Tyreque Reed. None of the MiLB guys were currently listed as top 60 guys on SoxProspects. Johnfrank Salazar and Brock Bell were interesting, but ultimately fungible.

 

My guess is Breslow diferred to internal evaluations on who to protect and that's why these guys are now elsewhere.

[Duran Is The Man]

My point was mainly to show that even DD has no record of doing well, when spending is low or cut drastically.

 

He spent a little more in Montreal and brought the team from 81-81 to 85-77, but ended up with 71 wins, the year he left.

 

The Marlins went from 27th in spending to 7th before winning the '97 WS. Yes, DD built a championship team in a very short time, BUT he had a big budget. When they cut salary the year after, the team went 54-108, yet people want to think he'd have worked a miracle in 2020 based on his "history."

 

 

In Detroit, the team really sucked his first few years (low spending) and only made the WS in '06 after bringing the team payroll from 25th to 14th. Their second WS showing was after reaching 3rd in spending with a 74-88 record, then going uo to 1st in spending 3 years later for the season before their next trip to the WS in '12.

 

Again, I love the guy. I have no issues with what he did. I'm just saying, he has no proven he can win on a low budget. The team must have felt Bloom had that ability.

 

A recap of the CB Tax Budget over recent Sox seasons:

 

$178M in 2013's ring year

$186 under Ben

$199 Ben's last year in 2015

 

$204 DD's first year

$191 his 2nd year

$239 for the 2018 championship

$243 in 2019's disappointing season (DD's last)

 

$185 in 2020 (Bloom's 1st season)

$207 in '21

$236 in '22 (finally back to near DD spending)

$222 in Bloom's final year

 

 

so you're saying Bloom couldn't do as well as DD even when spending nearly the same amount of money.

[moonslav59]

Nor does Theo Epstein, really, and he's the GOAT.

 

Indeed. It's hard for any GM to do well without spending.

 

The Sox knew they were not going to spend, so they took a chance on the guy who wrote the book on Rays' ball.

 

The choice failed in most categories.

[moonslav59]

so you're saying Bloom couldn't do as well as DD even when spending nearly the same amount of money.

 

He proved that, and that's why he's gone.

 

I was responding to those who seem to think DD would have worked magic with massive budget cuts and 2 years of very limited winter spending budgets. (2020's budget was less than the salaries we lost.)

[moonslav59]

MLBTR reports...

 

Will Sammon of the Athletic reports that seven teams have stepped forward as the key players in the Yamamoto bidding. That group includes (listed alphabetically) the Blue Jays, Dodgers, Giants, Mets and Yankees. Two other “mystery teams” are also involved.

 

Are the Sox one of the two mystery teams?

[Randy Red Sox]

MLBTR reports...

 

Will Sammon of the Athletic reports that seven teams have stepped forward as the key players in the Yamamoto bidding. That group includes (listed alphabetically) the Blue Jays, Dodgers, Giants, Mets and Yankees. Two other “mystery teams” are also involved.

 

Are the Sox one of the two mystery teams?

 

sadly probably not. All reports so far seem to indicate the Sox are pursuing Lugo and Giolatla

[notin]

sadly probably not. All reports so far seem to indicate the Sox are pursuing Lugo and Giolatla

 

Not necessary

 

https://bleacherreport.com/articles/10099929-red-sox-rumors-yoshinobu-yamamoto-among-bostons-top-priorities-in-mlb-free-agency

 

But bear in mind, Yamamoto has until January 4 to sign before his 45 day window closes. I expect lots of changes to his list of suitors between now and whenever he finally puts pen to paper…

[moonslav59]

Breslow told reporters he's going to be "as aggressive as we can possibly be to fill the rotation." With the Red Sox and just about every other major league team looking for top-end pitching, however, he knows it won't come cheap. As a result, he's "willing to give up position player capital" in the form of highly rated prospects to make that dream happen.

 

-Isaiah de los Santos

[notin]

Breslow told reporters he's going to be "as aggressive as we can possibly be to fill the rotation." With the Red Sox and just about every other major league team looking for top-end pitching, however, he knows it won't come cheap. As a result, he's "willing to give up position player capital" in the form of highly rated prospects to make that dream happen.

 

-Isaiah de los Santos

 

 

Hopefully he wasn’t talking about Verdugo, Ammons or Urias…

[moonslav59]

the need to keep Slaten on the 40 really puts more pressure on the out-of-options Mata.

 

There will almost certainly be injuries before opening day, and we will likely add at least two more pitchers to the 40 and 26, so something has to give, or we'll need to demote some pretty good pitchers to make room for Slaten & Mata.

 

This might be the top 13 pitchers to open the season in MLB (before any more additions or subtractions.)

 

Bello

Sale

Crawford

Pivetta

Houck

 

Jansen

Martin

Winckowski

Whitlock

Schreiber

Bernardino

Mata

Slater

 

AAA on 40

Campbell, Weissert, Murphy, Kelly, Robertson, Walter, Jacques

AA on 40

Wikelman & Perales (A+?)

 

If we add two SP'ers, Bernardino has an option, so that is one, but who is the second one? Schreiber?

 

 

 

 

[moonslav59]

Hopefully he wasn’t talking about Verdugo, Ammons or Urias…

 

He said it yesterday, so I don't think he meant Urias.

[notin]

He said it yesterday, so I don't think he meant Urias.

 

So comforting…

[moonslav59]

So comforting…

 

I hope he trades some position players/prospects for top SP'ing.

[Randy Red Sox]

Breslow leaves the winter meetings without adding any SP. most inactivity i can ever remember coming from the winter meetings. I HATE MLB FA. COMPLETE JOKE. MAKE A DAMN DECISION OHTANI !!!

[moonslav59]

Before any additions or more subtractions, is the the 13 everyday players on opening day?

 

C: Wong/McGuire

1B: Casas

2B: Reyes/Valdez

SS: Story

3B: Devers

LF: Duran/Refsnyder

CF: Rafaela

RF: Abreu

DH: Yoshida

UT: DHam or Dalbec (the only 2 others on the 37 man roster, right now.)

 

[moonslav59]

Breslow leaves the winter meetings without adding any SP. most inactivity i can ever remember coming from the winter meetings. I HATE MLB FA. COMPLETE JOKE. MAKE A DAMN DECISION OHTANI !!!

 

Maybe some deals are on the table and close to completed. Maybe some deals are pending FA signings or non signings by certain teams.

 

Most of the best available players are still on the board.

 

Here is what we have lost and gained under Brez, so far:

 

Gained:

Isaiah Campbell

Justin Slaten

Richard Fitts (ranked 10th by MLB Pipeline in Sox organization)

Greg Weissert

Nicholas Judice

 

Lost:

Verdugo

Urias

Drohan

R Fernandez

Ryan Ammons

 

Nothing overwhelmingly major, here. Some seemed to think Verdugo and his $9M arb estimate made him a non tender candidate.

[Duran Is The Man]

Maybe some deals are on the table and close to completed. Maybe some deals are pending FA signings or non signings by certain teams.

 

Most of the best available players are still on the board.

 

Here is what we have lost and gained under Brez, so far:

 

Gained:

Isaiah Campbell

Justin Slaten

Richard Fitts (ranked 10th by MLB Pipeline in Sox organization)

Greg Weissert

Nicholas Judice

 

Lost:

Verdugo

Urias

Drohan

R Fernandez

Ryan Ammons

 

Nothing overwhelmingly major, here. Some seemed to think Verdugo and his $9M arb estimate made him a non tender candidate.

 

i'm happy we got Campbell. i've seen him pitch a number of times and always been impressed.

[Larry Cook]

Soto to the Yankees for 5 spare parts

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

MLBTR reports...

 

Will Sammon of the Athletic reports that seven teams have stepped forward as the key players in the Yamamoto bidding. That group includes (listed alphabetically) the Blue Jays, Dodgers, Giants, Mets and Yankees. Two other “mystery teams” are also involved.

 

Are the Sox one of the two mystery teams?

 

Yes. It's a mystery why Boston wasn't listed as the first key player on the Yamamoto List.

 

Full Throttle or Full of Crap?

[moonslav59]

ERod to AZ for about $20M x 4.

[mvp 78]

ERod to AZ for about $20M x 4.

 

I guess it worked out for him to opt out.

[notin]

I guess it worked out for him to opt out.

 

But he spurned the Dodgers at the trade deadline because he didn’t want to go so far from the least Coast.

 

Apparently LA is too far, but Phoenix isn’t.

[notin]

Yes. It's a mystery why Boston wasn't listed as the first key player on the Yamamoto List.

 

Full Throttle or Full of Crap?

 

Full Throttle - Kia Sedona Edition…

[Bellhorn04]

ERod to AZ for about $20M x 4.

 

Another one off the board.

[notin]

Breslow leaves the winter meetings without adding any SP. most inactivity i can ever remember coming from the winter meetings. I HATE MLB FA. COMPLETE JOKE. MAKE A DAMN DECISION OHTANI !!!

 

Winter meetings rarely have any real activity. Ok they did that one year when e had the lockout coming…

[Bellhorn04]

But he spurned the Dodgers at the trade deadline because he didn’t want to go so far from the least Coast.

 

Apparently LA is too far, but Phoenix isn’t.

 

Re turning down the move to LA - I think this might be one of those cases where 'family considerations' really did play into it - because otherwise it made no sense at all.

[Bellhorn04]

Winter meetings rarely have any real activity. Ok they did that one year when e had the lockout coming…

 

True, but I think Sox fans have earned the right to be skeptical and worried this offseason until/unless something good happens.

[mvp 78]

But he spurned the Dodgers at the trade deadline because he didn’t want to go so far from the least Coast.

 

Apparently LA is too far, but Phoenix isn’t.

 

He has to do what's best for his family. My guess is the Diamondback just gave him so much more money they he had to pull the trigger. Why move in season if there's no personal benefit?

[mvp 78]

Full Throttle - Kia Sedona Edition…

 

I've seen other lists where the Sox were listed. I'm going to let this offseason shakeout before I judge Breslow harshly.