A Realistic View at 2024: Part I

[notin]

I think the cases of O.J. and Bauer are pretty far apart on the spectrum. There aren't many who don't think O.J. was obviously guilty of a heinous double homicide. Opinions about Bauer are all over the place. moon's take is one of uncertainty, and I think I'm with him on that. We don't have all the facts in our possession.

 

I’m definitely uncertain, but usually side with “innocent until proven guilty.” I’d just rather see someone get away with something than punish an innocent person.

 

However, I do not think “not being allowed to pitch in MLB” is necessarily a punishment, but rather a waiving of a privelege. And banning/suspending a player with less than a reasonable doubt isn’t the worst fate…

[harmony]

Thank you.

 

Also lets take into account when, where, and why this video is posted. Lets assume for one second MVP is right, and this is a fake video fabricating evidence so Bauer can pitch again.

 

After the charges were dropped against Bauer filed a defemation lawsuit against Hill, who then counter-sued him. They both settled, there was discovery, Bauer posted the texts. Now whether or not Bauer made up "fake texts" implied by another poster with zero evidence other than (this circumstanially makes me right because otherwise I look wrong) is irrelevant because we know for a FACT that Bauer and his lawyer would have had access to said texts during discovery. That is fact.

 

If we were to believe MVPs theory is correct. We would have to believe a college educated man lawyered to the TEETH, who was JUST involved in a defemation lawsuit and effectively fended off an attempt by a women to steal his $35 million dollar net worth by making a story up would IMMEDIATELY turn around and publicy publish the definitive proof online that he just slandered someone. We would have to believe he would immediately incriminate himself, that he would make up fake texts, search the world for a woman who looks exactly like Hill and shoot videos to himself and her, and literally create a mountain of evidence that would lead to his own prosecution. All of this after a defemation lawsuit involving discovery and himself. If the texts and evidence that Bauer posted was made up, Hill would have the most OPEN/SHUT easiest to prove case in the history of defemation lawsuits and would be able to sue the s*** of of Bauer right now.

 

The amount of Logic you have to circumnavigate to believe "yeah....yeah that must be what's going on" is about on par with believing the earth is flat. It's abusrd.

Hugh, I hope you find solace from your trauma. No one deserves the abuse you described.

 

My questions:

 

1. After gaining discovery, did Trevor Bauer post all the texts?

2. Or did Bauer post only texts (and other evidence) that supported his version of events, omitting any texts (and evidence) that supported her version of events?

3. If Bauer had overwhelming proof, why did he drop his suit without extracting a retraction from the woman?

4. Did Bauer and his attorneys fear losing at trial where Bauer and his witnesses would be subject to cross-examination and where the woman could present contradictory evidence?

 

Truth is difficult to ascertain in these matters but a trial with evidence from both sides may have brought us closer to the truth.

 

Or not.

 

Trevor Bauer will likely pitch in Major League Baseball next season. Let's live with it.

[moonslav59]

Hugh, I hope you find solace from your trauma. No one deserves the abuse you described.

 

My questions:

 

1. After gaining discovery, did Trevor Bauer post all the texts?

2. Or did Bauer post only texts (and other evidence) that supported his version of events, omitting any texts (and evidence) that supported her version of events?

3. If Bauer had overwhelming proof, why did he drop his suit without extracting a retraction from the woman?

4. Did Bauer and his attorneys fear losing at trial where Bauer and his witnesses would be subject to cross-examination and where the woman could present contradictory evidence?

 

Truth is difficult to ascertain in these matters but a trial with evidence from both sides may have brought us closer to the truth.

 

Or not.

 

Trevor Bauer will likely pitch in Major League Baseball next season. Let's live with it.

 

A voice of reason. Thanks.

[mvp 78]

Just stop, I say, again.

 

It was an obvious lighthearted joke.

[moonslav59]

Using MLBTR's estimated contract costs, here's a stab at something I think is reasonable:

 

A) Net cost about $2M AAV

We trade Dugo & Urais for Torres and $5M

We sign Duvall

 

Net cost $48M AAV

Sign Montgomery ($25M x 6) and S Gray ($23M x 4)

 

SP: Montgomery, Gray, Bello, Sale, Pivetta (Houck)

LR: Houck, Whitlock, Crawford (Murphy)

SR: Jansen, Martin, Winckowski, Schreiber, Bernardino (Mata/Kelly)

 

1. L- Duran/ R-Refsnyder LF

2. L Devers 3B

3. R- Torres 2B

4. L- Casas 1B

5. R- Story SS

6. L- Yoshida DH

7. R- Duvall RF

8. R- Wong/ L- McGuire C

9. R- Rafaela/ L- Abreu CF

Utility: R- Reyes

 

 

 

 

[a700hitter]

This place went into the toilet pretty quickly.

[moonslav59]

Here is my take on BTV's Red Sox values:

 

60 Mayer (45-50)

42 Anthony (50-55)

38 Casas (45-50)

34 Bello (35-40)

30 Duran (15-25)

29 Bleis (20-30)

27 Crawford (20-25)

22 Devers (25-30 due to contract)

20 Houck (20-25- one less year than Crawford)

18 Teel (30-45)

17 Yorke (5-15)

17 Rafaela (15-30)

14 Schreiber (7-12)

12 Whitlock (12-17)

11 Winckowski (7-12)

5.7 Drohan (1-5)

5.6 Pivetta (7-11, despite just 1 year left)

5.0 Verdugo (6-9)

4.8 Perales (4-7)

4.2 Valdez (2-5)

4.2 Romero (2-22)

4.2 Zanetello (2-17)

4.0 Wikelman (7-17)

3.7 Bernardino (1-5)

3.4 Abreu (4-14)

3.3 Mediroth (1-4)

3.2 Martin (5-9)

3.0 Urias (2-10)

2.7 Jansen (3-7)

2.7 ER-C (1-4)

2.6 Alcanatara (1-4)

2.5 Cespedes (10-40)

2.4 McGuire (2-5)

2.3 Mata (1-4, out of options)

2.3 Wong (3-10)

2.3 Paulino (1-3)

2.3 Monegro (3-15)

2.2 Jordan (2-5)

2.2 Bastardo (2-4)

2.2 Castro (3-5)

2.1 DHam (1-2)

2.0 Murphey (1-5)

1.9 Walter (1-4)

1.9 Brannon (1-8)

1.9 Anderson (2-10)

1.9 Jo Garcia (2-10)

1.8 Jimenez (0-1)

1.7 Lugo (0-1)

1.7 Bonaci (0)

1.7 Hickey (2-5)

1.6 Dobbins (2-3)

1.4 Guerrero (1-3)

1.3 Rogers (2-3)

1.2 Robertson 1-3)

1.2 Kavadas (0-2)

 

Notables under 1.0:

0.8 Z Kelly (1-3)

0.5 Gambrell (1-7)

0.5 Song (1-7)

0.5 Rosier (1-4)

0.4 Luis de la Rosa (1-3)

0.4 S Scott (1-2)

0.4 Hoppe (1-3)

0.4 Paez (1-2)

0.4 Troye (1-3)

0.0 Refsnyder (1-2)

-0.6 Yoshida (+5 to -15)

-10.3 Sale (+5 to -27)

-80.0 Story (+5 to -40)

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

Here is my take on BTV's Red Sox values:

 

60 Mayer (45-50)

42 Anthony (50-55)

38 Casas (45-50)

34 Bello (35-40)

30 Duran (15-25)

29 Bleis (20-30)

27 Crawford (20-25)

22 Devers (25-30 due to contract)

20 Houck (20-25- one less year than Crawford)

18 Teel (30-45)

17 Yorke (5-15)

17 Rafaela (15-30)

14 Schreiber (7-12)

12 Whitlock (12-17)

11 Winckowski (7-12)

5.7 Drohan (1-5)

5.6 Pivetta (7-11, despite just 1 year left)

5.0 Verdugo (6-9)

4.8 Perales (4-7)

4.2 Valdez (2-5)

4.2 Romero (2-22)

4.2 Zanetello (2-17)

4.0 Wikelman (7-17)

3.7 Bernardino (1-5)

3.4 Abreu (4-14)

3.3 Mediroth (1-4)

3.2 Martin (5-9)

3.0 Urias (2-10)

2.7 Jansen (3-7)

2.7 ER-C (1-4)

2.6 Alcanatara (1-4)

2.5 Cespedes (10-40)

2.4 McGuire (2-5)

2.3 Mata (1-4, out of options)

2.3 Wong (3-10)

2.3 Paulino (1-3)

2.3 Monegro (3-15)

2.2 Jordan (2-5)

2.2 Bastardo (2-4)

2.2 Castro (3-5)

2.1 DHam (1-2)

2.0 Murphey (1-5)

1.9 Walter (1-4)

1.9 Brannon (1-8)

1.9 Anderson (2-10)

1.9 Jo Garcia (2-10)

1.8 Jimenez (0-1)

1.7 Lugo (0-1)

1.7 Bonaci (0)

1.7 Hickey (2-5)

1.6 Dobbins (2-3)

1.4 Guerrero (1-3)

1.3 Rogers (2-3)

1.2 Robertson 1-3)

1.2 Kavadas (0-2)

 

Notables under 1.0:

0.8 Z Kelly (1-3)

0.5 Gambrell (1-7)

0.5 Song (1-7)

0.5 Rosier (1-4)

0.4 Luis de la Rosa (1-3)

0.4 S Scott (1-2)

0.4 Hoppe (1-3)

0.4 Paez (1-2)

0.4 Troye (1-3)

0.0 Refsnyder (1-2)

-0.6 Yoshida (+5 to -15)

-10.3 Sale (+5 to -27)

-80.0 Story (+5 to -40)

 

I'm not saying I disagree with your high values, and as a biased Red Sox fan (who always wants to believe some of the hype), I'd lean closer to some of yours than BTV.

 

However, it is amazing that many prospects rate above guys who've actually made the majors, only because they have unlimited ceilings... as well as floors.

 

It's like keeping a wax pack from 50 years ago unopened -- collectors will always pay hundreds or thousands of dollars for a chance at a Hall of Famer's mint rookie card, but once the pack is unsealed, and all that's there is a handful of commons, the value plummets...

 

... you can see why if Breslow is smart (at CBOing), he'll move a few prospects while they still have potential... meanwhile, maybe Bloom already held on to a few too long...

[notin]

I'm not saying I disagree with your high values, and as a biased Red Sox fan (who always wants to believe some of the hype), I'd lean closer to some of yours than BTV.

 

However, it is amazing that many prospects rate above guys who've actually made the majors, only because they have unlimited ceilings... as well as floors.

 

It's like keeping a wax pack from 50 years ago unopened -- collectors will always pay hundreds or thousands of dollars for a chance at a Hall of Famer's mint rookie card, but once the pack is unsealed, and all that's there is a handful of commons, the value plummets...

 

... you can see why if Breslow is smart (at CBOing), he'll move a few prospects while they still have potential... meanwhile, maybe Bloom already held on to a few too long...

 

 

I doubt the ceilings and floors have anything to do with it. Do not underestimate the impact of a minimum wage salary.

[moonslav59]

I'm not saying I disagree with your high values, and as a biased Red Sox fan (who always wants to believe some of the hype), I'd lean closer to some of yours than BTV.

 

However, it is amazing that many prospects rate above guys who've actually made the majors, only because they have unlimited ceilings... as well as floors.

 

It's like keeping a wax pack from 50 years ago unopened -- collectors will always pay hundreds or thousands of dollars for a chance at a Hall of Famer's mint rookie card, but once the pack is unsealed, and all that's there is a handful of commons, the value plummets...

 

... you can see why if Breslow is smart (at CBOing), he'll move a few prospects while they still have potential... meanwhile, maybe Bloom already held on to a few too long...

 

I did value a few lower than BTV...

 

Duran

Bleis

Crawford

Yorke

Schreiber

Drohan

Valdez

Bernardino

Meidroth

E R-C & Alcantara (slightly)

Paulino

DHam

Jimenez, Lugo, Bonaci, Kavadas

 

I'm also super high on Cespedes.

Edited November 11, 2023 by moonslav59

[moonslav59]

I doubt the ceilings and floors have anything to do with it. Do not underestimate the impact of a minimum wage salary.

 

Then every prospect projected to make min would have the same value.

 

Of course the estimate future performance, which involves estimating ceilings vs floors.

[notin]

Then every prospect projected to make min would have the same value.

 

Of course the estimate future performance, which involves estimating ceilings vs floors.

 

Not remotely true.

 

Saying teams don’t trade for prospects because they believe some have unlimited potential is not the same as saying they’re all the same. Not even remotely….

[moonslav59]

Not remotely true.

 

Saying teams don’t trade for prospects because they believe some have unlimited potential is not the same as saying they’re all the same. Not even remotely…

 

You really think ceilings and floors have "nothing to do" with BTV's prospect valuation or GM's evaluation of prospects?

 

[notin]

You really think ceilings and floors have "nothing to do" with BTV's prospect valuation or GM's evaluation of prospects?

 

 

 

I absolutely do not think teams value prospects higher than established major leaguers solely because of the unlimited ceiling.

 

Context. Try it…

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

I doubt the ceilings and floors have anything to do with it. Do not underestimate the impact of a minimum wage salary.

 

You maybe just described how a guy like Bloom approached trading average big leaguers for minor leaguers who projected to be average if they made the majors.

 

But Breslow is almost committed to swap actual quality in return for upgrading the MLB roster.

 

As soon as all the execs from the last meeting recover from the stomach bug...

[notin]

You maybe just described how a guy like Bloom approached trading average big leaguers for minor leaguers who projected to be average if they made the majors.

 

But Breslow is almost committed to swap actual quality in return for upgrading the MLB roster.

 

As soon as all the execs from the last meeting recover from the stomach bug...

 

No.

 

I just didn’t describe how MLB.com scribes like Ian Browne thinks trades still work. (Not to mention it’s nothing like what Bloom did ever.)

 

Most trades are done about money. Most teams “rebuild the farm” while simultaneously shedding salary, and they are NOT doing it because of the untapped potential on the farm. Cheap salaries matter. Apparently I have to be VERY EXPLICIT and say they are NOT the only thing that matters, but they absolutely matter.

 

As for Breslow, maybe he should make a deal or two beyond signing a former Twin OF with a career .441 OPS before we evaluate him either way.

Edited November 11, 2023 by notin

[moonslav59]

I absolutely do not think teams value prospects higher than established major leaguers solely because of the unlimited ceiling.

 

Context. Try it…

 

Who said unlimited ceiling. Possible high ceiling, yes.

 

You said ceilings and floors have no input into valuations.

[moonslav59]

No.

 

I just didn’t describe how MLB.com scribes like Ian Browne thinks trades still work. (Not to mention it’s nothing like what Bloom did ever.)

 

Most trades are done about money. Most teams “rebuild the farm” while simultaneously shedding salary, and they are NOT doing it because of the untapped potential on the farm. Cheap salaries matter. Apparently I have to be VERY EXPLICIT and say they are NOT the only thing that matters, but they absolutely matter.

 

As for Breslow, maybe he should make a deal or two beyond signing a former Twin OF with a career .441 OPS before we evaluate him either way.

 

Of course a promising prospects low salary is a big part of trades for prospects, as much as the dumping of salary, too.

 

With a team like the Sox, who are not trying to be like the Rays, when they make a trade like Beni for Cordero and 4 prospects, they went and immediately spent the savings on Renfroe (or Marwin, if you want to make Bloom look bad.)

[Bellhorn04]

Who said unlimited ceiling. Possible high ceiling, yes.

 

You said ceilings and floors have no input into valuations.

 

Another confusing conversation here at Talksox LOL. I think everyone understands that a prospect's trade value is a combination of their projected future performance and their projected (relatively cheap) salaries in the control period.

[moonslav59]

Another confusing conversation here at Talksox LOL. I think everyone understands that a prospect's trade value is a combination of their projected future performance and their projected (relatively cheap) salaries in the control period.

 

I guess 5GG did actually say "unlimited," so I missed that, but teams do use projected ceiling and floors to help determine what the expected performance values might be.

[Duran Is The Man]

I'm not saying I disagree with your high values, and as a biased Red Sox fan (who always wants to believe some of the hype), I'd lean closer to some of yours than BTV.

 

However, it is amazing that many prospects rate above guys who've actually made the majors, only because they have unlimited ceilings... as well as floors.

 

It's like keeping a wax pack from 50 years ago unopened -- collectors will always pay hundreds or thousands of dollars for a chance at a Hall of Famer's mint rookie card, but once the pack is unsealed, and all that's there is a handful of commons, the value plummets...

 

... you can see why if Breslow is smart (at CBOing), he'll move a few prospects while they still have potential... meanwhile, maybe Bloom already held on to a few too long...

 

it's called Schrödinger's Wax Pack -and well-known in Quantum Card Collecting.

[Bellhorn04]

I guess 5GG did actually say "unlimited," so I missed that, but teams do use projected ceiling and floors to help determine what the expected performance values might be.

 

Of course they do.

[jad]

Another confusing conversation here at Talksox LOL. I think everyone understands that a prospect's trade value is a combination of their projected future performance and their projected (relatively cheap) salaries in the control period.

 

Yeah, the subtleties of buying a car that runs good today, while considering how it might run 100K miles down the road was just way too nuanced for this ordinary fan.

[mvp 78]

I doubt the ceilings and floors have anything to do with it. Do not underestimate the impact of a minimum wage salary.

 

Some stingy owners still find value in not paying players.

[mvp 78]

No.

 

I just didn’t describe how MLB.com scribes like Ian Browne thinks trades still work. (Not to mention it’s nothing like what Bloom did ever.)

 

Most trades are done about money. Most teams “rebuild the farm” while simultaneously shedding salary, and they are NOT doing it because of the untapped potential on the farm. Cheap salaries matter. Apparently I have to be VERY EXPLICIT and say they are NOT the only thing that matters, but they absolutely matter.

 

As for Breslow, maybe he should make a deal or two beyond signing a former Twin OF with a career .441 OPS before we evaluate him either way.

 

Who did they sign?

[mvp 78]

@SoxProspects

Per the @BaseballAmerica transactions, the Red Sox signed OF Mark Contreras to a minor league deal. MIN 9th-rd pick from UC Riverside in 2017. Most of last 3 years in AAA. Limited MLB experience in '22. .274/.352/.418 in '23. Plays all 3 OF positions.

 

A LHB for the OF??? Crag doesn't know what he's doing!!!!!!

 

He'll probably hit 20 bombs in WOO. Seems to have a decent arm and can play all 3 OF positions. Hope we don't need to see him in Fenway though.

[notin]

@SoxProspects

Per the @BaseballAmerica transactions, the Red Sox signed OF Mark Contreras to a minor league deal. MIN 9th-rd pick from UC Riverside in 2017. Most of last 3 years in AAA. Limited MLB experience in '22. .274/.352/.418 in '23. Plays all 3 OF positions.

 

A LHB for the OF??? Crag doesn't know what he's doing!!!!!!

 

He'll probably hit 20 bombs in WOO. Seems to have a decent arm and can play all 3 OF positions. Hope we don't need to see him in Fenway though.

 

That guy. Organizational depth move…

[mvp 78]

That guy. Organizational depth move…

 

For sure. Didn't see that move until you mentioned it. Seems like he'll be fun enough to watch if you're in WOO. He's the Dollar General Abreu, but has a sweet 'stache.

[Nick]

That guy. Organizational depth move…

 

Exactly. If Rafaela and Abreu moves up I'd imagine AAA team will need some depth piece.

[moonslav59]

Exactly. If Rafaela and Abreu moves up I'd imagine AAA team will need some depth piece.

 

Indeed.

 

It might be hard for both Rafaela and Abreu to make the 26, but if Yoshida moves to FT DH and we don't bring back Duvall or some other RHB for the OF, there should be room for both. The idea would be that both should play enough for them to grow and progress, but that might be hard.

 

The board has spoken, and Duran is the FT LF'er, unless and until he shows he should be platooned or benched/demoted. Hopefully, that never happens.

 

Dugo is the FT RF'er, who could probably use a platoon or partial platoon partner, but Ref sucks in RF, and Duran is not much better. Abreu bats lefty, so playing him there or in CF vs LHPs seems counterproductive. We could see ref in LF, Duran in CF and rafaela in RF in some games by LHPs, but how do we get Rafaela and Abreu playing nearly everyday?

 

650 PAs in CF

maybe 100-150 in RF

Is 750-800 enough for the two to split?