A Realistic View at 2024: Part I

[Nick]

I'm pretty sure nearly all of us view the rotation as our highest need area for 2024. The need for 2 or 3 has been debated, and it seems unlikely we add 3 significant SP'ers, this winter. (I'd love to see it, as it would make our pen one of the best in MLB, but I think it is a long shot hope.)

 

IMO, these are our highest need areas, this winter- listed in order of highest need:

 

1. SP1

2. SP2

3. Power RHB (CF, 2B or RF, if we trade Dugo)

4. 2B or CF/RF (whichever #3 does not fill.)

5. SP3

6. LH RP

(Upgrade C or the last of the 3 slots mentioned in #3 and #4.)

 

If we have $45-50M to spend, things will be way too tight to meet most of these needs, unless we make a big prospect trade.

If we have $65-70M to spend to stay under the second tax line, we might be able to pull it off by filling 4-5 of these 6 slots with quality players or 3-4 with quality and 2-3 with decent upgrades- filling all 6 slots.)

 

FA signings might be...

1. Gray

2. Montgomery

3. Duvall

4. Merrifield/A Frazier

5. Wacha

6. Nick Martinez/Wandy Peralta

 

I doubt we can get all this for $70M. Either we go over the $70M mark, make a big prospect trade, sign lesser cost players or fill just 3-5 of these slots.

 

 

We're at $49M per Cot's with following salaries included.

 

1 $9M Verdugo

2 $8M Pivetta

3 $5M Urias

 

So pitching and right handed bat is needed. Per MassLive, Sox was looking to mover Verdugo at trade deadline (no I didn't make it up).

Without the three, we have $70M+.

 

I don't see why we can't get 2 top tier starters ($30M + $25M), and spend $15M on a right handed bat.

 

That's a risk I'm willing to take as a new GM. What are we afraid of? Signing 3 FA won't weaken our farm.

 

QUIT f***ING NICKEL AND DIMING STUFF, GO SIGN A LEGIT STARTERS. IF THEY GET HURT, THEY GET HURT. WE CAN'T FINISH LOWER THAN WHAT WE DID THIS YEAR.

 

MAKE A BOLD MOVE OR TWO.

 

ps. by the way, I'm as excited as a White Sox fan having Beni back as much as Verdugo coming back.

[sk7326]

We're at $49M per Cot's with following salaries included.

 

1 $9M Verdugo

2 $8M Pivetta

3 $5M Urias

 

So pitching and right handed bat is needed. Per MassLive, Sox was looking to mover Verdugo at trade deadline (no I didn't make it up).

Without the three, we have $70M+.

 

I don't see why we can't get 2 top tier starters ($30M + $25M), and spend $15M on a right handed bat.

 

That's a risk I'm willing to take as a new GM. What are we afraid of? Signing 3 FA won't weaken our farm.

 

QUIT f***ING NICKEL AND DIMING STUFF, GO SIGN A LEGIT STARTERS. IF THEY GET HURT, THEY GET HURT. WE CAN'T FINISH LOWER THAN WHAT WE DID THIS YEAR.

 

MAKE A BOLD MOVE OR TWO.

 

ps. by the way, I'm as excited as a White Sox fan having Beni back as much as Verdugo coming back.

 

For me, Yamamoto is the top pitching option if he gets posted ... the posting fee will be bananas, but the player's contract will be almost certainly a bargain. There is definitely a lower floor, but you are getting a 25 year old starter with Top 3 rotation upside at a minimum.

 

Tim Anderson on a prove-it deal might make sense for 2B.

[Bellhorn04]

MiLB deal?

 

I didn't mean that price range.

[Bellhorn04]

For me, Yamamoto is the top pitching option if he gets posted ... the posting fee will be bananas, but the player's contract will be almost certainly a bargain. There is definitely a lower floor, but you are getting a 25 year old starter with Top 3 rotation upside at a minimum.

 

Speculation is the bidding on Yamamoto will start at $200 mill.

[Nick]

Speculation is the bidding on Yamamoto will start at $200 mill.

 

It's in the $30M range, the guy is only 25 right?

[notin]

For me, Yamamoto is the top pitching option if he gets posted ... the posting fee will be bananas, but the player's contract will be almost certainly a bargain. There is definitely a lower floor, but you are getting a 25 year old starter with Top 3 rotation upside at a minimum.

 

Tim Anderson on a prove-it deal might make sense for 2B.

 

Is Yamamoto really guaranteed to be a top 3? Not sure this contract will be a bargain either. I’d place him as the biggest or second biggest contact handed out to a pitcher this off-season, vying with Aaron Nola for the honor. Not sure I’m on board there.

 

I’m more intrigued by the potential return of Trevor Bauer, assuming he’s innocent. If he still hates long term contracts, all the better…

Edited November 5, 2023 by notin

[Old Red]

Speculation is the bidding on Yamamoto will start at $200 mill.

 

$200M for 6-7 years. This is going to be a bidding war, and it won’t be easy to outbid teams like they did with Yoshida. I don’t know if he , and Yoshida are big buddies, but it wouldn’t hurt if they are. If not i don’t see the Red Sox winning the war.

[Bellhorn04]

$200M for 6-7 years. This is going to be a bidding war, and it won’t be easy to outbid teams like they did with Yoshida. I don’t know if he , and Yoshida are big buddies, but it wouldn’t hurt if they are. If not i don’t see the Red Sox winning the war.

 

But we have to start acting like the Boston Bleeping Red Sox again.

[Hugh2]

But we have to start acting like the Boston Bleeping Red Sox again.

 

If the past 25 years defines the Boston Red Sox and not the last several then no one should ever think we can’t outbid anyone.

 

People can be forgiven for being skeptical given the last few years but there’s equally nothing wrong with saying the Boston Red Sox should start acting like the BOSTON f***ING (I’ll say it) RED SOX again.

 

I think they will, but nothing really surprises that much anymore.

[Bellhorn04]

If the past 25 years defines the Boston Red Sox and not the last several then no one should ever think we can’t outbid anyone.

 

People can be forgiven for being skeptical given the last few years but there’s equally nothing wrong with saying the Boston Red Sox should start acting like the BOSTON f***ING (I’ll say it) RED SOX again.

 

I think they will, but nothing really surprises that much anymore.

 

I'll be very surprised if they're not aggressive this offseason.

[notin]

But we have to start acting like the Boston Bleeping Red Sox again.

 

That’s being said by a lot people outside the organization and zero people inside the organization…

[Randy Red Sox]

That’s being said by a lot people outside the organization and zero people inside the organization…

 

exactly

[notin]

For me, Yamamoto is the top pitching option if he gets posted ... the posting fee will be bananas, but the player's contract will be almost certainly a bargain. There is definitely a lower floor, but you are getting a 25 year old starter with Top 3 rotation upside at a minimum.

 

Tim Anderson on a prove-it deal might make sense for 2B.

 

Anderson expressed willingness to move to 2b in Chicago. I do like this idea…

[Hugh2]

I'll be very surprised if they're not aggressive this offseason.

 

I’d be surprised too, but not absolutely shocked.

[Bellhorn04]

That’s being said by a lot people outside the organization and zero people inside the organization…

 

I'd say their public messaging has definitely pointed toward a more aggressive approach.

[notin]

I'd say their public messaging has definitely pointed toward a more aggressive approach.

 

How so?

[Bellhorn04]

How so?

 

It started with some of Cora's comments, which obviously must have been endorsed by the team, about focusing more on the present. I think they sent a clear message that this was part of why Bloom was let go.

 

From an article in the Globe on Breslow's introductory press conference:

 

Team chairman Tom Werner described the Sox as being “full throttle in every possible way” in upgrading the roster.

 

“You need great players. It’s not about selling the team. It’s about having great players,” he said. “Generally, you need players who have high WAR to be a winner. Raffy Devers is a star that will be with us for a long time, but you need to complement with other talent.”

 

Breslow described an “unwavering commitment” from above and that all options would be available to him in building the roster.

 

“Resources are not a problem here,” he said. “The commitment to winning from ownership is not a question here.”

 

Even for top-tier free agents?

 

“I don’t see financial resources as an eliminating factor,” Breslow said. “I think that was something that was clear in the conversations that we had. Now obviously we have to line up on a number of variables here. Interest and fit among two of them.”

[moonslav59]

We're at $49M per Cot's with following salaries included.

 

1 $9M Verdugo

2 $8M Pivetta

3 $5M Urias

 

So pitching and right handed bat is needed. Per MassLive, Sox was looking to mover Verdugo at trade deadline (no I didn't make it up).

Without the three, we have $70M+.

 

I don't see why we can't get 2 top tier starters ($30M + $25M), and spend $15M on a right handed bat.

 

That's a risk I'm willing to take as a new GM. What are we afraid of? Signing 3 FA won't weaken our farm.

 

QUIT f***ING NICKEL AND DIMING STUFF, GO SIGN A LEGIT STARTERS. IF THEY GET HURT, THEY GET HURT. WE CAN'T FINISH LOWER THAN WHAT WE DID THIS YEAR.

 

MAKE A BOLD MOVE OR TWO.

 

ps. by the way, I'm as excited as a White Sox fan having Beni back as much as Verdugo coming back.

 

Pivetta is worth $8M, so I would not subtract him or trade him.

 

Trading Verdugo for no added salary is possible, but then we have a new hole to fill. (Yes, the RHB can fill it. Duvall?)

 

Urias is a close call, to me. He was very good just 2 years ago. He's not old. $5M could be a bargain.

 

I think we need to just go over the tax line and up close to the 2nd line. That is close to $70M- $80M, if we trade Dugo for no salary.

 

Yes, that should be enough for SP1, SP2, RHB and a 3rd SP or 2Bman + LH RP.

 

Yes, stop dicking around with scrimping and saving. Easy for us to say, and I'll believe it when I see it.

[moonslav59]

I'll be very surprised if they're not aggressive this offseason.

 

I think the question is :How aggressive?"

 

Counting the Devers extension, last winter, one could view that winter as "aggressive," which is was, even if you factor in all the salaries lost, but it wasn't close to aggressive enough.

 

Is spending $50M per season more in new contracts going to be enough?

 

I think we need to be closer to $70M.

[Nick]

Pivetta is worth $8M, so I would not subtract him or trade him.

 

Trading Verdugo for no added salary is possible, but then we have a new hole to fill. (Yes, the RHB can fill it. Duvall?)

 

Urias is a close call, to me. He was very good just 2 years ago. He's not old. $5M could be a bargain.

 

I think we need to just go over the tax line and up close to the 2nd line. That is close to $70M- $80M, if we trade Dugo for no salary.

 

Yes, that should be enough for SP1, SP2, RHB and a 3rd SP or 2Bman + LH RP.

 

Yes, stop dicking around with scrimping and saving. Easy for us to say, and I'll believe it when I see it.

 

Stop it Moon.

 

Are you satisfied with mediocrity? That is what you are proposing. Getting rid of these 3 will allow us to target 2 top tier starting pitchers to go with Bello, Sale and Kutter.

 

Why keep Pivetta if that's preventing us from acquiring a second top tier starter?

 

Aren't you the one that PREACHES replace #1 and #2 and not the #5? Which is it? Quit pussyfooting around. State your preference.

[moonslav59]

Stop it Moon.

 

Are you satisfied with mediocrity? That is what you are proposing. Getting rid of these 3 will allow us to target 2 top tier starting pitchers to go with Bello, Sale and Kutter.

 

Why keep Pivetta if that's preventing us from acquiring a second top tier starter?

 

Aren't you the one that PREACHES replace #1 and #2 and not the #5? Which is it? Quit pussyfooting around. State your preference.

 

You missed my point. I want us to spend $70M and keep Pivetta and maybe Urias. I'm fine with trading Dugo.

 

My suggestion has been to trade top prospects for one excellent SP'er on top of spending $50-70M, so how is that espousing mediocrity? I want 3 SP'ers not 2. It is you asking for just two that is looking more like "mediocrity" than my ideas.

 

I'm just not sure JH will allow such a budget.

 

I like Pivetta. He is not a mediocre 5th SP'er or long RP. He's one of the best.

 

I'm not relying on Sale, like you are. That plan is asking for trouble.

 

I'd be okay with Kutter as the #5 and Pivetta in long relief, but I'd flip the two.

 

My rotation would be far from mediocre:

 

1. Yamamoto, Nola or Gray

2. Gray or Montgomery (maybe Morton on a 1 yr deal)

3. Bello

4. Wacha (or Morton)

5. Pivetta/Sale

 

Hardly seeking meciocrity.

 

 

 

[notin]

Stop it Moon.

 

Are you satisfied with mediocrity? That is what you are proposing. Getting rid of these 3 will allow us to target 2 top tier starting pitchers to go with Bello, Sale and Kutter.

 

Why keep Pivetta if that's preventing us from acquiring a second top tier starter?

 

Aren't you the one that PREACHES replace #1 and #2 and not the #5? Which is it? Quit pussyfooting around. State your preference.

 

I don’t think Pivetta’s $8mill is preventing a second tier starter. Pivetta has been a useful pitcher the past 3 seasons capable of starter and reliever roles.

[Bellhorn04]

I don’t think Pivetta’s $8mill is preventing a second tier starter. Pivetta has been a useful pitcher the past 3 seasons capable of starter and reliever roles.

 

Yep. He's averaged 1.9 fWAR the last 3 seasons, which is worth about $15 mill per season.

[notin]

Yep. He's averaged 1.9 fWAR the last 3 seasons, which is worth about $15 mill per season.

 

Not to mention the notion that the Sox are only going to spend on pitching (not true) or going to get 2 starting pitchers (not likely) or need to add a #1 and a #2 (Entering “Flying Pig Territory” here)…

[moonslav59]

Not to mention the notion that the Sox are only going to spend on pitching (not true) or going to get 2 starting pitchers (not likely) or need to add a #1 and a #2 (Entering “Flying Pig Territory” here)…

 

I don't think anyone has said we will "only" spend on pitching.

 

IMO, if we only spend $35-49M, this winter, I'd like to see almost all of it go to the rotation, but I do not think that would happen.

 

If we spend $50-70M, I'd like to see one RHB (CF or 2B) added and maybe a 2B or CF/RF'er as well, but the rest should go to the rotation- maybe 75-80% of the $50-70M. Again, I'm not expecting or counting on anything.

 

I do think they need to follow through on the promise of being aggressive, this winter, but aggressive could mean one major SP'er signing and someone like Duvall, Frazier, Wacha and a LH RP.

 

Like I said, I'll believe it when I see it.

 

I don't see why we can't afford Yamamoto, Montgomery, Wacha and Duvall. Trade Dugo for a LH RP or 2Bman (nontender Urias.)

 

[Bellhorn04]

I don't think anyone has said we will "only" spend on pitching.

 

IMO, if we only spend $35-49M, this winter, I'd like to see almost all of it go to the rotation, but I do not think that would happen.

 

If we spend $50-70M, I'd like to see one RHB (CF or 2B) added and maybe a 2B or CF/RF'er as well, but the rest should go to the rotation- maybe 75-80% of the $50-70M. Again, I'm not expecting or counting on anything.

 

I do think they need to follow through on the promise of being aggressive, this winter, but aggressive could mean one major SP'er signing and someone like Duvall, Frazier, Wacha and a LH RP.

 

That sounds like it's in the ballpark of possible.

[moonslav59]

That sounds like it's in the ballpark of possible.

 

Is that really what any of us see as "aggressive?"

[notin]

I don't think anyone has said we will "only" spend on pitching.

 

IMO, if we only spend $35-49M, this winter, I'd like to see almost all of it go to the rotation, but I do not think that would happen.

 

If we spend $50-70M, I'd like to see one RHB (CF or 2B) added and maybe a 2B or CF/RF'er as well, but the rest should go to the rotation- maybe 75-80% of the $50-70M. Again, I'm not expecting or counting on anything.

 

I do think they need to follow through on the promise of being aggressive, this winter, but aggressive could mean one major SP'er signing and someone like Duvall, Frazier, Wacha and a LH RP.

 

Like I said, I'll believe it when I see it.

 

I don't see why we can't afford Yamamoto, Montgomery, Wacha and Duvall. Trade Dugo for a LH RP or 2Bman (nontender Urias.)

 

 

I have no idea what these guys will sign for, although the buzz on MLB Network is Montgomery could surpass the earning power of Blake Snell due to his performance in the postseason and this will not change if Snell gets his second Cy Young. Of course, they’re not the most reliable for predictions.

 

But if he does, you’re looking at probably $30mill AAV for Yamamoto, $25mill for Montgomery, we’ll say $10mill got Wacha and $8mill for Duvall. $73mill for those four.

 

Is it possible? Sure. Will they actually do it? No idea…

[moonslav59]

I have no idea what these guys will sign for, although the buzz on MLB Network is Montgomery could surpass the earning power of Blake Snell due to his performance in the postseason and this will not change if Snell gets his second Cy Young. Of course, they’re not the most reliable for predictions.

 

But if he does, you’re looking at probably $30mill AAV for Yamamoto, $25mill for Montgomery, we’ll say $10mill got Wacha and $8mill for Duvall. $73mill for those four.

 

Is it possible? Sure. Will they actually do it? No idea…

 

Let's assume the $73M is correct. We could non tender Urias and get under the second tax line.

 

Or, we could trade Dugo for a $4-5M LH's RP'er and get under, as well.

 

I seriously doubt we go all in like this, but to me, this is what I would call "aggressive," and not signing one big pitcher and Duvall, Wacha and a LH RP and/or Frazier.

 

[harmony]

Stop it Moon.

 

Are you satisfied with mediocrity? That is what you are proposing. Getting rid of these 3 will allow us to target 2 top tier starting pitchers to go with Bello, Sale and Kutter.

 

Why keep Pivetta if that's preventing us from acquiring a second top tier starter?

 

Aren't you the one that PREACHES replace #1 and #2 and not the #5? Which is it? Quit pussyfooting around. State your preference.

If the Red Sox don't want Nick Pivetta at a $6.9 million salary, why would another team want Pivetta at that salary instead of pursuing "top tier starting pitchers"?

 

To address the question: To trim payroll would the Red Sox trade one year of Nick Pivetta at a projected $6.9 million and one year of Alex Verdugo at $9.2 million to the Seattle Mariners for their Round A PPI Draft Pick and 26-year-old outfielder Cade Marlowe?

 

Baseball Trade Values calls it an even trade.