A Realistic View at 2024: Part I

[mvp 78]

They have to sign one of the big guys. That's mandatory.

 

If DD is committed to Nola why did he let him get to free agency?

 

I can't answer your question. I just believe he won't let Nola leave Philly. DD builds all his teams on stars. Without them, he has nothing.

[Bellhorn04]

You use the farm to develop talent into future stars AND to trade as assets when the need arises. We've seen from the previous few years that this team has a huge hole at starting pitching and there isn't a lot of help in the minor leagues. If they are going to move him for an impact arm, it would make sense.

 

I get all that, but you have to be super-judicious in who you trade. DD nailed it when he traded Moncada and Kopech for Sale.

 

Going back further they traded Hanley for Beckett. Hanley turned out to be a good player but not elite.

 

If Mayer turns out to be elite that's one we'll regret. We don't want another Bagwell.

[mvp 78]

Maybe a 3-way deal where Dugo goes to HOU or wherever, we send Mayer to PIT along with the prospect from Dugo, and we get just Keller and Bednar. (We then sign Duvall.)

 

Seems like an overpay for Bednar/Keller IMO.

[Bellhorn04]

I can't answer your question. I just believe he won't let Nola leave Philly. DD builds all his teams on stars. Without them, he has nothing.

 

DD's philosophy has been working pretty well IMHO. Plus he left us with some decent prospects. And didn't trade anyone who really hurt. So I disagree on that too.

 

I just had my coffee too. I'll calm down after a few more of these argumentative posts.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

Ben and Pitt passed on drafting Mayer for a catcher they're already converting to the outfield. Maybe they didn't want to pay what it would cost to draft the Top Rated Prospect in the Draft... and let the Sox splurge so they could trade for him later at his minor league salary.

 

Nah, who thinks like that.

[Old Red]

He's still only 20.

 

I understand fully how old he is, but people have been talking about him like he’s here already since he was drafted. You don’t make your decisions on a SS, or anywhere else with the expectations that Mayer will be here someday at the expense of today, or yesterday.You don’t pass on years waiting for something to happen that may never turnout.

[Old Red]

I get all that, but you have to be super-judicious in who you trade. DD nailed it when he traded Moncada and Kopech for Sale.

 

Going back further they traded Hanley for Beckett. Hanley turned out to be a good player but not elite.

 

If Mayer turns out to be elite that's one we'll regret. We don't want another Bagwell.

 

The answer would be to trade Mayer for someone good themselves.

[Bellhorn04]

I understand fully how old he is, but people have been talking about him like he’s here already since he was drafted. You don’t make your decisions on a SS, or anywhere else with the expectations that Mayer will be here someday at the expense of today, or yesterday.You don’t pass on years waiting for something to happen that may never turnout.

 

Good thing they didn't feel that way about guys like Rice, Lynn and Mookie, IMO.

[Old Red]

Good thing they didn't feel that way about guys like Rice, Lynn and Mookie, IMO.

 

Are you comparing him to those three? Mayer fell into Bloom’s lap after three teams passed on him. He has lots of potential, but that doesn’t mean he’ll live up to that potential. If they could get some good pitching now for him being involved I think that’s a chance worth taking.

[mvp 78]

I get all that, but you have to be super-judicious in who you trade. DD nailed it when he traded Moncada and Kopech for Sale.

 

Going back further they traded Hanley for Beckett. Hanley turned out to be a good player but not elite.

 

If Mayer turns out to be elite that's one we'll regret. We don't want another Bagwell.

 

So don't trade Bagwell for Larry Andersen? Trade the top tier prospects for starting pitchers not setup guys.

[Bellhorn04]

Are you comparing him to those three? Mayer fell into Bloom’s lap after three teams passed on him. He has lots of potential, but that doesn’t mean he’ll live up to that potential. If they could get some good pitching now for him being involved I think that’s a chance worth taking.

 

My argument is that we have lots of money now to spend on pitching. Plus we have a guy in Breslow who has a lot of acumen in the pitching development area.

 

So why would you trade your top prospect for something you should be able to achieve with the other resources you have?

[mvp 78]

DD's philosophy has been working pretty well IMHO. Plus he left us with some decent prospects. And didn't trade anyone who really hurt. So I disagree on that too.

 

I just had my coffee too. I'll calm down after a few more of these argumentative posts.

 

He left Casas and that's about it. Nobody else had trade value at the time he was still here. Everyone else was so far away and hadn't climbed the ladder yet. Even Houck was an after thought until 2020.

[mvp 78]

Ben and Pitt passed on drafting Mayer for a catcher they're already converting to the outfield. Maybe they didn't want to pay what it would cost to draft the Top Rated Prospect in the Draft... and let the Sox splurge so they could trade for him later at his minor league salary.

 

Nah, who thinks like that.

 

If they could acquire both guys, Ben would be happy to.

[notin]

I wouldn’t trade Dugo just for the sake of trading him. He will be on his last contract yarrow before hitting FA, so that may be a good thing.

 

He’s also expressed interest in being extended. Hopefully Breslow at least sees what he wants…

[mvp 78]

Good thing they didn't feel that way about guys like Rice, Lynn and Mookie, IMO.

 

How did they feel about Lynn? He retire here? Mookie still here?

[mvp 78]

My argument is that we have lots of money now to spend on pitching. Plus we have a guy in Breslow who has a lot of acumen in the pitching development area.

 

So why would you trade your top prospect for something you should be able to achieve with the other resources you have?

 

Sox have money, but these pitchers are coming off the books from somewhere else. The only team that is really closing up shop is SD. Everyone else will still have their share to spend.

[Bellhorn04]

How did they feel about Lynn? He retire here? Mookie still here?

 

Yes, but not until after they played some pretty good ball in a Sox uniform.

[notin]

PIT will likely trade Reynolds, this winter. The other two have several years of control.

 

I do not think BTV's value on Mayer is too high.

 

I have no idea how PIT values Mayer and Duran. Hell, it's hard for anyone to place a firm value on either one.

 

I think PIT might say yes, or they might get a better offer from someone else.

 

I'd throw in 1-2 from these roster bubble or blocked prospects: Walter, Mata (out of options,) Dalbec, Hickey, Lugo or maybe even Paulino or Jordan.

 

They just extended Reynolds last year. He has 7 years $99mill left. That’s really not outrageous…

[sk7326]

I get all that, but you have to be super-judicious in who you trade. DD nailed it when he traded Moncada and Kopech for Sale.

 

Going back further they traded Hanley for Beckett. Hanley turned out to be a good player but not elite.

 

If Mayer turns out to be elite that's one we'll regret. We don't want another Bagwell.

 

1. Given the shoulder injury, I am not sure the Sox would get the sort of return that Mayer would justify if the shoulder is healthy. I don't think they trade him until during the 2024 season at all just on that basis.

2. Can you get a top 20 starter for him with some control? If so, yeah you consider it. But Reynolds and Bednar or Keller seems like selling low.

3. Ultimately, "Full speed ahead" really has to be focused on throwing money at pitching. The franchise has to take its medicine there after all the neglect on the run prevention side. While they need a decent corner OF or two, I almost want to just give a runway for the kiddos as much as possible.

[mvp 78]

Yes, but not until after they played some pretty good ball in a Sox uniform.

 

Would you rather have Mayer play some pretty good ball for a long time and no rings or trade him for a TOTR starter and have a better shot at another ring?

[Old Red]

My argument is that we have lots of money now to spend on pitching. Plus we have a guy in Breslow who has a lot of acumen in the pitching development area.

 

So why would you trade your top prospect for something you should be able to achieve with the other resources you have?

 

Are you going to outbid all these other teams for pitching you want? A trade may be a better option for 2024. I repeat for 2024.

[Bellhorn04]

Sox have money, but these pitchers are coming off the books from somewhere else. The only team that is really closing up shop is SD. Everyone else will still have their share to spend.

 

It could be crazy, that's for sure.

 

I'm sure Breslow will explore trades for pitching. I just have my doubts about trading Mayer unless the return is huge, and his value is a bit depressed right now.

 

Plus no matter what Breslow said about being bold, I'm not sure he wants one of his first moves to be trading the team's top prospect. Could be yet another PR problem for a team that's had it's fill.

[mvp 78]

Are you going to outbid all these other teams for pitching you want? A trade may be a better option for 2024. I repeat for 2024.

 

If it's solely money, they throw it at 2 starters and trade for the RHB because there aren't many available in FA this year.

[mvp 78]

It could be crazy, that's for sure.

 

I'm sure Breslow will explore trades for pitching. I just have my doubts about trading Mayer unless the return is huge, and his value is a bit depressed right now.

 

Plus no matter what Breslow said about being bold, I'm not sure he wants one of his first moves to be trading the team's top prospect. Could be yet another PR problem for a team that's had it's fill.

 

All I'm saying is CONSIDER IT. I'm not saying go and make it the first move. If you can get a really great pitcher for Mayer, you should do it. Mitch Keller? No. Someone that is clearly a #1 or close to it.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

If it's solely money, they throw it at 2 starters and trade for the RHB because there aren't many available in FA this year.

 

I'm leaning to Lourdes (almost-mighty): Gold Glove finalist LF, All-Star this year, 24 dingers (albeit most in NL West parks), homered in three straight postseason series... pre-arb, free agent in '25 -- he's like a righty version of Verdugo.

[Bellhorn04]

Re-sign Duvall right away and clear up that issue.

[Bellhorn04]

1. Given the shoulder injury, I am not sure the Sox would get the sort of return that Mayer would justify if the shoulder is healthy. I don't think they trade him until during the 2024 season at all just on that basis.

2. Can you get a top 20 starter for him with some control? If so, yeah you consider it. But Reynolds and Bednar or Keller seems like selling low.

3. Ultimately, "Full speed ahead" really has to be focused on throwing money at pitching. The franchise has to take its medicine there after all the neglect on the run prevention side. While they need a decent corner OF or two, I almost want to just give a runway for the kiddos as much as possible.

 

Agree with all this.

[harmony]

They just extended Reynolds last year. He has 7 years $99mill left. That’s really not outrageous…

FWIW after his breakout 6.0 fWAR season in 2021, Bryan Reynolds has posted more pedestrian fWAR of 2.8 and 2.3 the last two years as the Pirate approaches his 29th birthday in January:

 

https://www.fangraphs.com/players/bryan-reynolds/19326/stats?position=OF

Edited November 3, 2023 by harmony

[Hugh2]

Would you rather have Mayer play some pretty good ball for a long time and no rings or trade him for a TOTR starter and have a better shot at another ring?

 

The answer to this question should be yes, I'd rather trade Mayer to have another shot at a ring.

 

The problem with this question, is it doesn't point at that their are just as many, perhaps more permutations of the future that lead to Sox rings with Mayer at SS.

[moonslav59]

All I'm saying is CONSIDER IT. I'm not saying go and make it the first move. If you can get a really great pitcher for Mayer, you should do it. Mitch Keller? No. Someone that is clearly a #1 or close to it.

 

Keller really isn't close to a #1. He might be a lower #2. 2 years of control for him and 3 for Bednar is probably not enough of a return for Mayer.

 

You talked me out of it.

 

Funny how some think PIT would say no.