A Realistic View at 2024: Part I

[dgalehouse]

The problem is when the budget cuts result in lowering the quality of the product. The product in this case being the Boston Red Sox baseball team.

[moonslav59]

The problem is when the budget cuts result in lowering the quality of the product. The product in this case being the Boston Red Sox baseball team.

 

I wish I would have thought of that!

 

Why should our GM spend more than another GM? If we were Orioles fans, wouldn't we be wondering why we don't raise our spending budget by more than Boston might do?

 

To me, it's all relative.

 

I wish we spent more than others, but I don't think it's unreasonable when we don't.

[mvp 78]

Maybe. But there are ways to manipulate the CBT that he could easily do if he wanted (and we saw running rampant this offseason). And either way, the Sox plummeted in payroll relative to the league, so there was a pretty big overcorrection.

 

That payroll that "plummeted" was higher than 2020 and 2021.

[moonslav59]

That payroll that "plummeted" was higher than 2020 and 2021.

 

Indeed, and that was kind of my point. If we spend $100M more, this winter, but 29 teams spend $150M more, would anyone be happy with JH?

 

It's all relative.

[Bellhorn04]

The 2023 payroll budgeting stunk IMHO. 2023 was a year that should live in Red Sox infamy. Total fiasco. Henry was miserly and Bloom didn't get great value for what he did spend, in spite of a few good choices, and lost his job.

[moonslav59]

The 2023 payroll budgeting stunk IMHO. 2023 was a year that should live in Red Sox infamy. Total fiasco. Henry was miserly and Bloom didn't get great value for what he did spend, in spite of a few good choices, and lost his job.

 

The winter spending budget was huge, and if you want to add the $10M they spent on Kike, it was even more.

 

The offset was that contracts sky-rocketed and we also had to replace:

Bogey

Nate

JD

Wacha

Hill

Strahm

(We did lose the half-Price contract from '22 to '23.)

 

The money kinds shrinks when you take those two things into consideration.

 

Still, Bloom blew it.

 

I heard on the soxprospects podcast there were concerns about Kluber's shoulder, when they signed him. Just a major cluster-you-know-what!

Edited October 19, 2023 by moonslav59

[moonslav59]

cots has our opening day budgets at....

 

$181M in '23

$207M '22

$180M '21

74M '20 (pro-rate to $185M)

$236M in '19

$233M in '18

$197 in '17

$198 in '16

$184 in '15

$156 in '14

$154 in '13

 

If you figure in inflation, and not just MLB top contract inflation... WOW!

 

 

Edited October 19, 2023 by moonslav59

[sk7326]

I wish I would have thought of that!

 

Why should our GM spend more than another GM? If we were Orioles fans, wouldn't we be wondering why we don't raise our spending budget by more than Boston might do?

 

To me, it's all relative.

 

I wish we spent more than others, but I don't think it's unreasonable when we don't.

 

Financial muscle is one of the team's actual competitive advantages and thus should be leveraged as much as possible. And it's totally reasonable for fans to wonder when it isn't so.

[sk7326]

The 2023 payroll budgeting stunk IMHO. 2023 was a year that should live in Red Sox infamy. Total fiasco. Henry was miserly and Bloom didn't get great value for what he did spend, in spite of a few good choices, and lost his job.

 

Pretty much this. The team had money (they always have money) knowing they needed pitching and chose to ignore pitching floor almost entirely. While I cannot guarantee it would have gotten Boston into the postseason - it would have put them right there. The industry turned to big time CBT manipulation with contract structure - so I can't shrug and say the Red Sox were unable to do that.

[Old Red]

Financial muscle is one of the team's actual competitive advantages and thus should be leveraged as much as possible. And it's totally reasonable for fans to wonder when it isn't so.

 

It is TOTALLY reasonable for fans to wonder when money isn’t spent especially with ticket prices go up every year. I don’t think Bloom would have had a clue what do do with it anyway even if JH gave him a blank check, and would still be his indecisive self, and operate the same way.

[Hugh2]

It is TOTALLY reasonable for fans to wonder when money isn’t spent especially with ticket prices go up every year. I don’t think Bloom would have had a clue what do do with it anyway even if JH gave him a blank check, and would still be his indecisive self, and operate the same way.

 

The difference is instead of missing out on Efflin by a few million he would miss out on Nola/Snell/Montgomery/Ohtani by a few more million.

[moonslav59]

Financial muscle is one of the team's actual competitive advantages and thus should be leveraged as much as possible. And it's totally reasonable for fans to wonder when it isn't so.

 

Oh, I wonder along with everyone else. I just don't think it's "unreasonable" for a rich guy to do what it takes to get even more rich, instead of paying his employees more.

 

The "reasons" are obvious and commonplace, whether we agree with them or not.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

When it comes to Red Sox GMs, being decisive, going all in on free agents or trade targets, is perhaps a most important trait. Spending really isn't the issue, but who they spend it on.

 

Duquette landed Manny, Pedro, Damon (among others) -- and no one thought they weren't worth the investment.

 

Epstein spent like a drunken Dombro, hit or miss -- for every Schilling and Foulke, there were Camerons and Gagnes -- but when he didn't want to keep a Cabrera or Renteria or Lugo, he never stopped, adding an Alex Gonzalez or Stephen Drew... Todd Walker became Mark Bellhorn -- get back, Loretta... Kevin Millar was going to Japan, but Theo redirected his flight.

 

Cherington collected a lot of good vets that coalesced together to win a title. But his later acquisitions were bad fits: Hanley in left, Rusney in the majors, Pablo anywhere in a Sox uni...

 

As a GM, Bloom was maybe most similar to Ben (sans the ring). Both were tasked with huge salary dumps, and Chaim's big expenditures, like Story and Yoshida also look like awkward investments -- so far.

 

But what separated Bloom from his predecessors and made him an ultimate failure was his inability to lock down better bets with market value contracts, or swing deals for others under control by parting with prospect capital. Some might blame ownership on his roster-building. Then again, isn't his roster-building the reason he was fired?

[notin]

Epstein didn’t sign Stephen Drew, but he did sign JD. Cherington signed Stephen. Twice…

[notin]

When it comes to Red Sox GMs, being decisive, going all in on free agents or trade targets, is perhaps a most important trait. Spending really isn't the issue, but who they spend it on.

 

Duquette landed Manny, Pedro, Damon (among others) -- and no one thought they weren't worth the investment.

 

Epstein spent like a drunken Dombro, hit or miss -- for every Schilling and Foulke, there were Camerons and Gagnes -- but when he didn't want to keep a Cabrera or Renteria or Lugo, he never stopped, adding an Alex Gonzalez or Stephen Drew... Todd Walker became Mark Bellhorn -- get back, Loretta... Kevin Millar was going to Japan, but Theo redirected his flight.

 

Cherington collected a lot of good vets that coalesced together to win a title. But his later acquisitions were bad fits: Hanley in left, Rusney in the majors, Pablo anywhere in a Sox uni...

 

As a GM, Bloom was maybe most similar to Ben (sans the ring). Both were tasked with huge salary dumps, and Chaim's big expenditures, like Story and Yoshida also look like awkward investments -- so far.

 

But what separated Bloom from his predecessors and made him an ultimate failure was his inability to lock down better bets with market value contracts, or swing deals for others under control by parting with prospect capital. Some might blame ownership on his roster-building. Then again, isn't his roster-building the reason he was fired?

 

It seemed like Bloom’s mission was to build a sustainable farm. We really won’t know if he has any success or not for a few years. But I’m hoping he was fired for his repeated indecisiveness or apathy or general malaise or whatever lead to his inactivity at the deadline the last two seasons…

[notin]

The difference is instead of missing out on Efflin by a few million he would miss out on Nola/Snell/Montgomery/Ohtani by a few more million.

 

Eflin wasn’t really a miss. He clearly wanted to go to Tampa. Saying the Sox only missed out “by a few million” requires knowing how high Tampa was willing to go…

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

It seemed like Bloom’s mission was to build a sustainable farm. We really won’t know if he has any success or not for a few years. But I’m hoping he was fired for his repeated indecisiveness or apathy or general malaise or whatever lead to his inactivity at the deadline the last two seasons…

 

New perspective: since we all acknowledge that organizations develop prospects into big leaguers... shouldn't the guy in charge at the time get more credit -- even if he didn't draft the kid?!?

 

If Dombrowski gets credit for not trading Devers or Benintendi when they were prospects, then maybe Bloom should get more credit for the progress that advanced Bello, Duran and Casas.

 

We can't blame Bloom and his people for not turning Springs and even Braiser into stud pitchers, without giving them credit for guys they kept that made it.

 

In a few years, what if a new Baseball Chief -- let's call him Breslow -- converts Nazzan Zanetello into a lights-out lefty reliever? Will Bloom be redefined as the hero for drafting him?

 

... I know, extreme case... but the whole ideal of taking all those best-player-availables is that they won't all stay at shortstop their entire careers.

[Hugh2]

Eflin wasn’t really a miss. He clearly wanted to go to Tampa. Saying the Sox only missed out “by a few million” requires knowing how high Tampa was willing to go…

 

Look at the cap space we have, and also consider that you don't need to go out and get Kluber.

 

In the spirit of my point, the point is the Sox could have got someone like Efflin if they really wanted to. A gm with Daves mindset would have just signed Efflin.

 

Now call that what you want, we can debate all day if that's good or bad and talk about the long-term ramifications of such actions but that's how he was. Ultimately that's Bloom's biggest weakness, he's unwilling to move off of his position of value more so than anyone else. That seems like a good trait at first glance, but too much of that and you become unreasonable and hard to bargain with. And, according to rumors that's exactly how the industry perceived Bloom.

 

If you are an owner, and you want to start making some serious moves (whether it's trading or buying) and your guy has that reputation, you kind of understand you HAVE to move on from that guy. Even if you think he did a good job. As a business owner and manager, I can respect that concept.

[moonslav59]

Look at the cap space we have, and also consider that you don't need to go out and get Kluber.

 

In the spirit of my point, the point is the Sox could have got someone like Efflin if they really wanted to. A gm with Daves mindset would have just signed Efflin.

 

Now call that what you want, we can debate all day if that's good or bad and talk about the long-term ramifications of such actions but that's how he was. Ultimately that's Bloom's biggest weakness, he's unwilling to move off of his position of value more so than anyone else. That seems like a good trait at first glance, but too much of that and you become unreasonable and hard to bargain with. And, according to rumors that's exactly how the industry perceived Bloom.

 

If you are an owner, and you want to start making some serious moves (whether it's trading or buying) and your guy has that reputation, you kind of understand you HAVE to move on from that guy. Even if you think he did a good job. As a business owner and manager, I can respect that concept.

 

and just because Eflin made some comments about wanting to play closer to home, it does NOT mean he he wouldn't sign with BOS for more money.

 

Players always say nice things about the city they just signed to play in.

[Hugh2]

New perspective: since we all acknowledge that organizations develop prospects into big leaguers... shouldn't the guy in charge at the time get more credit -- even if he didn't draft the kid?!?

 

If Dombrowski gets credit for not trading Devers or Benintendi when they were prospects, then maybe Bloom should get more credit for the progress that advanced Bello, Duran and Casas.

 

We can't blame Bloom and his people for not turning Springs and even Braiser into stud pitchers, without giving them credit for guys they kept that made it.

 

In a few years, what if a new Baseball Chief -- let's call him Breslow -- converts Nazzan Zanetello into a lights-out lefty reliever? Will Bloom be redefined as the hero for drafting him?

 

... I know, extreme case... but the whole ideal of taking all those best-player-availables is that they won't all stay at shortstop their entire careers.

 

I think if your extreme case you would credit the new guy, because he is the one who had the foresight to switch him to pitching. However, you also bring up a good point in that if DD gets credit for not trading Devers, then you can say the same about guys now. Does Bloom look not as bad years from now if Casas turns into a perennial middle-of-the-order bat???

 

Although, I also wonder how much of that would be and how much of that would be the internal coaching staff.

 

But yeah, in terms of "taking all those short stops" think about this. Besides Zanatello, who will probably be the inverse of Rafaela, playing mostly SS with some CF and has serious upside. I believe his primarily playing ss now but here is the rest.

 

Antonio Anderson - drafted as a SS has played only 3B in the field since being drafted

Kristian Campbell - drafted as a SS has Played primarily 2B since being drafted.

Justin Riemer - drafted as a SS and has not played yet but is rumored the organization will play him mostly at 2nd.

 

Campbell has also seen some time in leftfield, whether or not he moves there the Sox realistically have drafted one short stop who is now a short stop in pro ball at the minor league level. One.

[mvp 78]

When it comes to Red Sox GMs, being decisive, going all in on free agents or trade targets, is perhaps a most important trait. Spending really isn't the issue, but who they spend it on.

 

Duquette landed Manny, Pedro, Damon (among others) -- and no one thought they weren't worth the investment.

 

Epstein spent like a drunken Dombro, hit or miss -- for every Schilling and Foulke, there were Camerons and Gagnes -- but when he didn't want to keep a Cabrera or Renteria or Lugo, he never stopped, adding an Alex Gonzalez or Stephen Drew... Todd Walker became Mark Bellhorn -- get back, Loretta... Kevin Millar was going to Japan, but Theo redirected his flight.

 

Cherington collected a lot of good vets that coalesced together to win a title. But his later acquisitions were bad fits: Hanley in left, Rusney in the majors, Pablo anywhere in a Sox uni...

 

As a GM, Bloom was maybe most similar to Ben (sans the ring). Both were tasked with huge salary dumps, and Chaim's big expenditures, like Story and Yoshida also look like awkward investments -- so far.

 

But what separated Bloom from his predecessors and made him an ultimate failure was his inability to lock down better bets with market value contracts, or swing deals for others under control by parting with prospect capital. Some might blame ownership on his roster-building. Then again, isn't his roster-building the reason he was fired?

 

Bloom did a much better job with the farm and drafting than Ben did. Ben's success really came off of Theo's drafts.

[mvp 78]

It seemed like Bloom’s mission was to build a sustainable farm. We really won’t know if he has any success or not for a few years. But I’m hoping he was fired for his repeated indecisiveness or apathy or general malaise or whatever lead to his inactivity at the deadline the last two seasons…

 

It was the indecisiveness, the inability to work with other teams/agents and the s***** record 3 out of 4 years. The indecisiveness led to the two other issues.

[notin]

I think if your extreme case you would credit the new guy, because he is the one who had the foresight to switch him to pitching. However, you also bring up a good point in that if DD gets credit for not trading Devers, then you can say the same about guys now. Does Bloom look not as bad years from now if Casas turns into a perennial middle-of-the-order bat???

 

Although, I also wonder how much of that would be and how much of that would be the internal coaching staff.

 

But yeah, in terms of "taking all those short stops" think about this. Besides Zanatello, who will probably be the inverse of Rafaela, playing mostly SS with some CF and has serious upside. I believe his primarily playing ss now but here is the rest.

 

Antonio Anderson - drafted as a SS has played only 3B in the field since being drafted

Kristian Campbell - drafted as a SS has Played primarily 2B since being drafted.

Justin Riemer - drafted as a SS and has not played yet but is rumored the organization will play him mostly at 2nd.

 

Campbell has also seen some time in leftfield, whether or not he moves there the Sox realistically have drafted one short stop who is now a short stop in pro ball at the minor league level. One.

 

Yeah the “drafted too many shortstops” thing is just flat out wrong.

 

In high school, on roughly 105% of the teams, the SS is simply the best player. Would people be happier if Bloom drafted worse players but did so because they had outfield experience?

[mvp 78]

Look at the cap space we have, and also consider that you don't need to go out and get Kluber.

 

In the spirit of my point, the point is the Sox could have got someone like Efflin if they really wanted to. A gm with Daves mindset would have just signed Efflin.

 

Now call that what you want, we can debate all day if that's good or bad and talk about the long-term ramifications of such actions but that's how he was. Ultimately that's Bloom's biggest weakness, he's unwilling to move off of his position of value more so than anyone else. That seems like a good trait at first glance, but too much of that and you become unreasonable and hard to bargain with. And, according to rumors that's exactly how the industry perceived Bloom.

 

If you are an owner, and you want to start making some serious moves (whether it's trading or buying) and your guy has that reputation, you kind of understand you HAVE to move on from that guy. Even if you think he did a good job. As a business owner and manager, I can respect that concept.

 

There is no cap in baseball.

[notin]

There is no cap in baseball.

 

What are you talking about? It’s part of the uniform!

[mvp 78]

I think if your extreme case you would credit the new guy, because he is the one who had the foresight to switch him to pitching. However, you also bring up a good point in that if DD gets credit for not trading Devers, then you can say the same about guys now. Does Bloom look not as bad years from now if Casas turns into a perennial middle-of-the-order bat???

 

Although, I also wonder how much of that would be and how much of that would be the internal coaching staff.

 

But yeah, in terms of "taking all those short stops" think about this. Besides Zanatello, who will probably be the inverse of Rafaela, playing mostly SS with some CF and has serious upside. I believe his primarily playing ss now but here is the rest.

 

Antonio Anderson - drafted as a SS has played only 3B in the field since being drafted

Kristian Campbell - drafted as a SS has Played primarily 2B since being drafted.

Justin Riemer - drafted as a SS and has not played yet but is rumored the organization will play him mostly at 2nd.

 

Campbell has also seen some time in leftfield, whether or not he moves there the Sox realistically have drafted one short stop who is now a short stop in pro ball at the minor league level. One.

 

I'm not sure any of the 2023 draftees are actual SS's. They were just athletic enough to play that position for their teams. Campbell is a UTIL guy. Riemer is definitely a 2B.

[mvp 78]

What are you talking about? It’s part of the uniform!

 

Fair.

[notin]

Look at the cap space we have, and also consider that you don't need to go out and get Kluber.

 

In the spirit of my point, the point is the Sox could have got someone like Efflin if they really wanted to. A gm with Daves mindset would have just signed Efflin.

 

Now call that what you want, we can debate all day if that's good or bad and talk about the long-term ramifications of such actions but that's how he was. Ultimately that's Bloom's biggest weakness, he's unwilling to move off of his position of value more so than anyone else. That seems like a good trait at first glance, but too much of that and you become unreasonable and hard to bargain with. And, according to rumors that's exactly how the industry perceived Bloom.

 

If you are an owner, and you want to start making some serious moves (whether it's trading or buying) and your guy has that reputation, you kind of understand you HAVE to move on from that guy. Even if you think he did a good job. As a business owner and manager, I can respect that concept.

 

 

I don’t think Eflin fits this scenario at all.

 

The Sox made an offer. Elfin took it to Tampa. They matched. He signed immediately. This was not a case of Bloom sticking to his “value guns”. He never got the chance to counter. Eflin clearly wanted to play in Tampa, not Boston.

[Hugh2]

There is no cap in baseball.

 

You know what I meant.

[Hugh2]

I don’t think Eflin fits this scenario at all.

 

The Sox made an offer. Elfin took it to Tampa. They matched. He signed immediately. This was not a case of Bloom sticking to his “value guns”. He never got the chance to counter. Eflin clearly wanted to play in Tampa, not Boston.

 

It doesn't really matter, it's completely besides the point. There have been other players available the last several years. Bloom seemingly always got outbid, he was never willing to budge, and when you're NEVER willing to do so you will miss out on your guy almost every time.

 

It's like having a crush on a pretty girl at school and being surprised when someone else is dancing with her.