A Realistic View at 2024: Part I

[moonslav59]

Let's not forget his 2022 numbers with the bat were nothing special either.

 

Indeed, and that's why I mentioned "playing while injured."

 

Certainly his value is lower after these two seasons, but I do not think GM place value on sample sizes like his.

 

He's also still a great defender.

[moonslav59]

2020, 2021, 2022, 2023...

 

How is 2020 just 5% less? Less than 2019 or less than the tax line?

[Bellhorn04]

Indeed, and that's why I mentioned "playing while injured."

 

Certainly his value is lower after these two seasons, but I do not think GM place value on sample sizes like his.

 

There are reasons we were able to sign him for a bit below market in the first place.

[Bellhorn04]

Story isn't going anywhere. He's a sunk cost.

[moonslav59]

There are reasons we were able to sign him for a bit below market in the first place.

 

Yes, and now the issue is resolved. Inflation has increased healthy player values.

 

I think you might be surprised how much some GMs might value Story, right now. (Maybe I would be, too : to the good and or bad.)

[moonslav59]

Story isn't going anywhere. He's a sunk cost.

 

Has been a sunken cost.

 

The future is TBD.

[Dipre]

Story isn't going anywhere. He's a sunk cost.

 

Is he though? He could bounce back.

[Bellhorn04]

Is he though? He could bounce back.

 

Yes, he could. But his trend at the plate, including before we signed him, is not encouraging. And small sample or not, 55 K's and 9 BB's is ridiculous.

[mvp 78]

How is 2020 just 5% less? Less than 2019 or less than the tax line?

 

The CBT increased by 2M in 2020. To get under the CBT would be 5-6% from the previous budget.

[mvp 78]

Yes, he could. But his trend at the plate, including before we signed him, is not encouraging. And small sample or not, 55 K's and 9 BB's is ridiculous.

 

I'm throwing the 2023 baby out with the bathwater. I think the 2024 baby should be better.

[Bellhorn04]

I'm throwing the 2023 baby out with the bathwater. I think the 2024 baby should be better.

 

Can't be worse.

[mvp 78]

Can't be worse.

 

I think deep down you know this not to be true.

[cp176]

DD did have a hand in a couple of things that adversely affected the teams from 2019 to today, but the amount of good he did, some still having lasting effects (like keeping Devers, Bello, Casas, Houck, Crawford, Rafaela and others) far outweigh those two things:

1. Tough budget for the next GM to deal with.

2. Virtually no significant farm help from Devers i '17 to Casas/Bello '23, unless you count Houck.

 

To me, it was worth it all, and if we were to start spending again, I'd welcome DD back with open arms. (I'm not so sure I would, if the current philosophy continues.)

 

DD was and continues to be the type of GM who recognizes what needs to be done and gets it done. The assumption by some that he was incapable for some reason of building a competitive program from the ground up, is just plain silly. His leaving Boston was a huge loss for the city.

[mvp 78]

DD was and continues to be the type of GM who recognizes what needs to be done and gets it done. The assumption by some that he was incapable for some reason of building a competitive program from the ground up, is just plain silly. His leaving Boston was a huge loss for the city.

 

That was JH's assumption for sure. Many of us said that he should have been given a shot to clean up the mess.

[notin]

Can't be worse.

 

Never say that. It always can

[Old Red]

That was JH's assumption for sure. Many of us said that he should have been given a shot to clean up the mess.

 

We’ll never know what he would have done, but I think he had earned the chance to try if he wanted too.

[notin]

Story isn't going anywhere. He's a sunk cost.

 

Hard disagree.

 

Story was worth 0.8 bWAR after only 168 PA. The best free agent (if his option is not exercised) is Tim Anderson, who was worth -2.0bWAR with over 500PA.

 

Think former batting champ Anderson can be had for less than 4 years $93mill?

[moonslav59]

Yes, he could. But his trend at the plate, including before we signed him, is not encouraging. And small sample or not, 55 K's and 9 BB's is ridiculous.

 

Apparently, he was playing hurt that last year in COl, too.

 

I'm not sure how much the injury affected his bat, but .801 was not bad. That's worth $22M a year for a GG SS. (BTW, he was at .910 in his last 55 games in COL, so was he really "trending downwards?"

 

Of course, his home road splits were always an issue. He had a 102 OPS+ in 2021 and 2022. That is not $22M levels.

 

GG and his career 108 OPS+ is close.

 

[notin]

Hard disagree.

 

Story was worth 0.8 bWAR after only 168 PA. The best free agent (if his option is not exercised) is Tim Anderson, who was worth -2.0bWAR with over 500PA.

 

Think former batting champ Anderson can be had for less than 4 years $93mill?

 

 

Javier Baez could also opt out. But he was only worth 0.7bWAR.

 

Amed Rosario - also 0.7 bWAR.

 

Story is tradable. Just depends if the Sox and the new boss want to…

Edited October 18, 2023 by notin

[moonslav59]

DD was and continues to be the type of GM who recognizes what needs to be done and gets it done. The assumption by some that he was incapable for some reason of building a competitive program from the ground up, is just plain silly. His leaving Boston was a huge loss for the city.

 

I'm a big DD supporter. I wish he could have stayed. I'm not sure how he'd have done under the same budgets and what I call mandates Bloom was given.

 

I don't think he was happy about the change happening during his last year in BOS.

 

He was and still is a skilled and very capable GM. It was a loss, and so was the change brought on by the top brass.

[Bellhorn04]

Hard disagree.

 

Story was worth 0.8 bWAR after only 168 PA. The best free agent (if his option is not exercised) is Tim Anderson, who was worth -2.0bWAR with over 500PA.

 

Think former batting champ Anderson can be had for less than 4 years $93mill?

 

No WARcherry-picking, now. Story's fWAR was 0.2.

 

FUBAR 0.5

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

No WARcherry-picking, now. Story's fWAR was 0.2.

 

FUBAR 0.5

 

Fubar was on the IL when we signed him. But just wait -- when he finally arrives, he'll be better than anyone we could get at the trade deadline (for a prospect who might never even make the majors). You'll see.

 

When the Red Sox promotions dept called last winter to offer season tickets, I told them they'd have to throw in free beer, pretzels and parking -- because my bank account was on the IL. But I said if they just wait until I get my tax return, it'll be better than winning the lottery. Then I found out I owe back taxes.

[Bellhorn04]

If FanGraphs' valuation is the right one, Story was worth less than Valdez and Tapia - in more plate appearances.

 

Not much of a steal there.

[mvp 78]

If FanGraphs' valuation is the right one, Story was worth less than Valdez and Tapia - in more plate appearances.

 

Not much of a steal there.

 

His offense sucked in '23. No way to sugar coat it.

[Old Red]

His offense sucked in '23. No way to sugar coat it.

 

Hopefully his best days wasn’t left behind in Colorado.

[moonslav59]

If FanGraphs' valuation is the right one, Story was worth less than Valdez and Tapia - in more plate appearances.

 

Not much of a steal there.

 

It's not sugarcoating it to say maybe it was related to injury or the long time off due to injury.

 

He has been a total bust for 2 years.

 

That does not mean the next 4 will be that bad or even close to that bad.

 

I'm very concerned, but all hope is not lost.

[mvp 78]

Hopefully his best days wasn’t left behind in Colorado.

 

If he keeps his current defense and has a 100 wRC+ like in 2022, he'll be worth the contract. Just be 2022 Story, but stay healthy.

[mvp 78]

It's not sugarcoating it to say maybe it was related to injury or the long time off due to injury.

 

He has been a total bust for 2 years.

That does not mean the next 4 will be that bad or even close to that bad.

 

I'm very concerned, but all hope is not lost.

 

Nah. Miss me with that.

 

He would have been worth well more than his contract if he stayed healthy in 2022. Even only playing less than 2/3's of the season, he still only under performed the contract by 4M.

[moonslav59]

Nah. Miss me with that.

 

He would have been worth well more than his contract if he stayed healthy in 2022. Even only playing less than 2/3's of the season, he still only under performed the contract by 4M.

 

You can be a bust due to injury.

 

See the Sale last contract example.

[Randy Red Sox]

I totally agree with this post but DD is laughing in Philly right now whine his old position sits vacant