Red Sox: Off Season '23-'24

[moonslav59]

Soler got $42M/3 from SFG. I don't think that takes them out of the running for one of the remaining top pitchers on the market. They may end up with Snell or Monty.

 

Word down here is that TEX does not want to give Monty what he wants.

[moonslav59]

Who would you classify as the stars of the 2013 team?

 

Papi, Pedey, Lester & Uehara became one.

[moonslav59]

The 2004/2007/2013/2018 Red Sox teams had stars aplenty, though. Don't think those teams would have gone far without those stars...

 

Very true, but often the names of those stars changed, and I think the continuity of stars is a key point in the nostalgic posse.

[Bellhorn04]

Soler got $42M/3 from SFG. I don't think that takes them out of the running for one of the remaining top pitchers on the market. They may end up with Snell or Monty.

 

Word down here is that TEX does not want to give Monty what he wants.

 

Seems like no one wants to give any of the Boras Four what they want. Someone will sign them though.

 

What's really gonna suck is if Monty signs for 4/80 or something like that, and not with us.

[moonslav59]

Instead of just replying for days with ways to mock nostalgia and one poster's suspicion of "sustainability" -- how about giving your take?

 

Why did the front office suddenly feel like they needed to elaborate about what everyone who runs any sports team already is supposed to do? How has that specific word signified maybe an actual change in roster building? For better or for worse? How can anyone look at the team the Red Sox are currently promoting and not think they're Fulla Shittle.

 

No doubt, these guys are sham artists. They aren't very good at it. It's bad art, and I know it when I see it.

 

They talk of sustainability as a code word for planning for tomorrow more than for today. They think it gets them off the hook.

 

Improving the farm is all they have to hang their hat on, so they are milking it for all it's worth, even if the "worth" is nearly all just speculative wealth.

[moonslav59]

Seems like no one wants to give any of the Boras Four what they want. Someone will sign them though.

 

What's really gonna suck is if Monty signs for 4/80 or something like that, and not with us.

 

I'm higher on Monty than most. I don't think the fact that he just turned 31 is such a bad thing. He has never been overworked, his whole career. He may certainly drop off year 4 and 5, but it beats a 7 year deal.

 

I'd sign him to $100M/5, and if he ends up signing for $84M/4 or $100M/5 somewhere else, I will count it as a big missed opportunity. (Same as Sonny Gray.)

 

I do not think he will be an issue in 3-4 years, so if the rebuild is about 2025 or even 2026, he should be a plus, then, too.

[notin]

Papi, Pedey, Lester & Uehara became one.

 

With Uehara, he became a star on that team. The Sox signed him as a reliever and he was third in line for the closer role, behind Joel Hanrahan and current sox pitching coach Andrew Bailey. Did anyone get excited when the Sox signed Uehara? If someone told you the day the sox signed him that he would be the closer because of injuries to Hanrahan and Bailey, what would you have thought about that season?

[notin]

Seems like no one wants to give any of the Boras Four what they want. Someone will sign them though.

 

What's really gonna suck is if Monty signs for 4/80 or something like that, and not with us.

 

Obviosuly, he would be a big help. But should the Sox go all in on Montgomery?

 

In his first 5 seasons, Motgomery was worth 9.9 fWAR. Is that a pitcher you go all in on? That's fewer fWAR than Kyle Gibson has had in the past 5 seasons. If the Sox signed Kyle Gibson, would anyone get excited?

[Bellhorn04]

Obviosuly, he would be a big help. But should the Sox go all in on Montgomery?

 

In his first 5 seasons, Motgomery was worth 9.9 fWAR. Is that a pitcher you go all in on? That's fewer fWAR than Kyle Gibson has had in the past 5 seasons. If the Sox signed Kyle Gibson, would anyone get excited?

 

Why his first 5 seasons and not his last 4?

[notin]

Why his first 5 seasons and not his last 4?

 

I actually did his first 6 with the 9.9 total. Bad count on my part.

 

But if you like his last 4 seasons, his 11.2 fWAR is just behind Eduardo Rodriguez and Zack Eflin. And the still-available Zack Greinke.

 

I get the thinking that this guy is not an ace. I wouldn't mind if the Sox signed him, as he is a clear upgrade. But I could also see not over-committing to him as next off-season should have several better options...

[Bellhorn04]

I actually did his first 6 with the 9.9 total. Bad count on my part.

 

But if you like his last 4 seasons, his 11.2 fWAR is just behind Eduardo Rodriguez and Zack Eflin. And the still-available Zack Greinke.

 

I get the thinking that this guy is not an ace. I wouldn't mind if the Sox signed him, as he is a clear upgrade. But I could also see not over-committing to him as next off-season should have several better options...

 

Ah yes, good old next off-season.

[moonslav59]

With Uehara, he became a star on that team. The Sox signed him as a reliever and he was third in line for the closer role, behind Joel Hanrahan and current sox pitching coach Andrew Bailey. Did anyone get excited when the Sox signed Uehara? If someone told you the day the sox signed him that he would be the closer because of injuries to Hanrahan and Bailey, what would you have thought about that season?

 

Yes, that's why I said "he became one."

 

You didn't ask who were viewed as stars in February 2013.

[moonslav59]

I actually did his first 6 with the 9.9 total. Bad count on my part.

 

But if you like his last 4 seasons, his 11.2 fWAR is just behind Eduardo Rodriguez and Zack Eflin. And the still-available Zack Greinke.

 

I get the thinking that this guy is not an ace. I wouldn't mind if the Sox signed him, as he is a clear upgrade. But I could also see not over-committing to him as next off-season should have several better options...

 

I'd have been happy with ERod or Eflin.

 

Greinke is not a fair comp to want, now.

[notin]

Ah yes, good old next off-season.

 

So you think that teams should go all in on the best available player even if he is not necessarily all that good? I'm pretty certain that is how the Sox got Story.

[notin]

I'd have been happy with ERod or Eflin.

 

Greinke is not a fair comp to want, now.

 

The Sox tried or Eflin, but he clearly had other plans. I didn't hear them do much about ERod at any point. I like Erod as a pitcher, as long as he doesn't have to cover 1b. But if the Sox signed him, I think fans would still want an ace. He's a good baseball add, but not enough of a PR one...

[mvp 78]

Soler to the Giants. Another guy the Sox had "interest" in gone by the wayside

 

3/42. Pass.

[Bellhorn04]

So you think that teams should go all in on the best available player even if he is not necessarily all that good? I'm pretty certain that is how the Sox got Story.

 

Yes, that's exactly what I said.

 

Seems to me you were in favor of signing Montgomery not so long ago.

[mvp 78]

Who would you classify as the stars of the 2013 team?

 

Pedroia

Ortiz

Ellsbury (MVP runner up in '11)

Lester

[mvp 78]

Seems like no one wants to give any of the Boras Four what they want. Someone will sign them though.

 

What's really gonna suck is if Monty signs for 4/80 or something like that, and not with us.

 

Sox should just give Boras their best offer and not be worried about it if someone beats it. Not sure what that offer would be.

[moonslav59]

The Sox tried or Eflin, but he clearly had other plans. I didn't hear them do much about ERod at any point. I like Erod as a pitcher, as long as he doesn't have to cover 1b. But if the Sox signed him, I think fans would still want an ace. He's a good baseball add, but not enough of a PR one...

 

I'm not sure Yoshida or Story were bigger names than Monty. We still got them.

 

Nobody is saying Monty is the ace they need, but we also need a #2 and pushing Bello down a slot is a good idea, too.

 

Going from a projected 80 win team to 84 or 85 makes all the other what ifs carry a bit more weight. We would not need 80-90% of our what ifs to happen- maybe just half or 60%.

[mvp 78]

Obviosuly, he would be a big help. But should the Sox go all in on Montgomery?

 

In his first 5 seasons, Motgomery was worth 9.9 fWAR. Is that a pitcher you go all in on? That's fewer fWAR than Kyle Gibson has had in the past 5 seasons. If the Sox signed Kyle Gibson, would anyone get excited?

 

Shame on Jordan Montgomery for losing 2 seasons early on to TJS!!!!!!!!

[mvp 78]

I actually did his first 6 with the 9.9 total. Bad count on my part.

 

But if you like his last 4 seasons, his 11.2 fWAR is just behind Eduardo Rodriguez and Zack Eflin. And the still-available Zack Greinke.

 

I get the thinking that this guy is not an ace. I wouldn't mind if the Sox signed him, as he is a clear upgrade. But I could also see not over-committing to him as next off-season should have several better options...

 

Greinke's last 4 seasons total 6.4 fWAR. You're counting 5?

[mvp 78]

So you think that teams should go all in on the best available player even if he is not necessarily all that good? I'm pretty certain that is how the Sox got Story.

 

"Aren't necessarily all that good." He's been about a 3 fWAR player every year except for the two injury season. In 2020, his numbers extrapolate to about 3 fWAR for a full season. That's worth over 20M per year.

[mvp 78]

Yes, that's exactly what I said.

 

Seems to me you were in favor of signing Montgomery not so long ago.

 

He just wants to save Henry some money.

[notin]

Yes, that's exactly what I said.

 

Seems to me you were in favor of signing Montgomery not so long ago.

 

Let's not go overboard. I do like him as an addition, but I have never thought he was a necessity. I did and still do prefer him over the oft-injured Snell. But I have also said repeatedly I can understand passing on him in favor of next year's free agent class...

[Dipre]

Let's not go overboard. I do like him as an addition, but I have never thought he was a necessity. I did and still do prefer him over the oft-injured Snell. But I have also said repeatedly I can understand passing on him in favor of next year's free agent class...

 

What this team needs? Effective innings.

 

What Montgomery provides? Effective innings.

 

So if this team needs effective innings, and Montgomery can provide them, he is, by definition, a need.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

I'm not sure Yoshida or Story were bigger names than Monty. We still got them.

 

Nobody is saying Monty is the ace they need, but we also need a #2 and pushing Bello down a slot is a good idea, too.

 

Going from a projected 80 win team to 84 or 85 makes all the other what ifs carry a bit more weight. We would not need 80-90% of our what ifs to happen- maybe just half or 60%.

 

I don't look at a Monty signing as making the Sox a playoff team this year nor do I consider giving him market value as any sign of Boston going all-in.

 

Instead, it's a natural move the Sox should make to upgrade a hideous starting rotation, put a more legitimate product on the field, and most importantly, provide innings to stabilize the entire pitching staff -- allowing others to develop as either starters or relievers (and for those who do go to the bullpen, give them proper rest to prevent burn-out, and preserve arms for when the Sox really are contenders).

[notin]

"Aren't necessarily all that good." He's been about a 3 fWAR player every year except for the two injury season. In 2020, his numbers extrapolate to about 3 fWAR for a full season. That's worth over 20M per year.

 

He's been in the league seven years, and has reached 3 fWAR twice. I can accept four times if you want to count 2020 and even the 2.7 fWAR from 2021. That's close enough.

 

Similar pitchers like ERod (4 years $20mill AAV) and Zack Eflin (3 years $13.3mill AAV) show the range for his talent. If the Sox can get him ona deal like that, great. But so far, they can't. Because while I don't know what Boras is valuing him at, I somehow suspect it is greater than $20mill AAV. Probably closer to $25mill AAV for six years. Would you go 6 years $150mill for Montgomery? To me, I dislike the 6 years more than the $25mill AAV.

 

And I'm just guessing on numbers. What if the actual ask is for more years and a bigger AAV?

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

Let's not go overboard. I do like him as an addition, but I have never thought he was a necessity. I did and still do prefer him over the oft-injured Snell. But I have also said repeatedly I can understand passing on him in favor of next year's free agent class...

 

I understand the sentiment, but every year the Red Sox refuse to sign good starting pitchers takes another year off the life of the tendons and ligaments of elbows and shoulders of their own diehard posters... not to mention existing pitching staffs.

[notin]

I understand the sentiment, but every year the Red Sox refuse to sign good starting pitchers takes another year off the life of the tendons and ligaments of elbows and shoulders of their own diehard posters... not to mention existing pitching staffs.

 

It's not my favorite strategy either. But I can't ignore that it is a real option. And we as fans are not responsible for the multi-million dollar deals that Breslow (theoretically) makes, whereas he has to be at least somewhat accountable...