Red Sox: Off Season '23-'24

[mvp 78]

There is value in innings, but if he’s cost prohiythat would defeat the whole point…

 

100%

[mvp 78]

Of the trade targets listed, Cease is the most interesting to me - you get the extra control and the strikeout rate is at least an indicator that there was some bad luck involved with last year.

 

Seattle to me doesn't make sense to just trade Gilbert - they have actual aspirations of being good.

 

The k rate is good, but the hard hit rate and the bb rate is bad. I think '22 was an indicator of good luck rather than '23 being an indicator of bad luck.

[moonslav59]

38 year old, Kenta Maeda signed with DET for $14M in '24 and $10M in '25. $24M/2 for a guy who has only pitched over 154 IP once (his rookie year in 2016) and has not pitched over 107 IP since 2019. He missed 2022, entirely.

 

His 2021+2023 numbers:

12-13 4.44

1.23 WHIP

4.06 FIP

96 ERA+

211 IP (9.8 K/9: 2.6 BB/9)

 

Seems a bit high, right?

[mvp 78]

38 year old, Kenta Maeda signed with DET for $14M in '24 and $10M in '25. $24M/2 for a guy who has only pitched over 154 IP once (his rookie year in 2016) and has not pitched over 107 IP since 2019. He missed 2022, entirely.

 

His 2021+2023 numbers:

12-13 4.44

1.23 WHIP

4.06 FIP

96 ERA+

211 IP (9.8 K/9: 2.6 BB/9)

 

Seems a bit high, right?

 

He's an above average pitcher who has struggled to stay healthy. He was worth 12M last year according to FanGraphs. Pitching in DET could work out well for him, but he's older and he could have more increased IL time? Maybe he'll be fine now that he's post TJS? If 12M is 1.5 fWAR, he's been worth that every season except for the year he was out with TJS.

[moonslav59]

He's an above average pitcher who has struggled to stay healthy. He was worth 12M last year according to FanGraphs. Pitching in DET could work out well for him, but he's older and he could have more increased IL time? Maybe he'll be fine now that he's post TJS? If 12M is 1.5 fWAR, he's been worth that every season except for the year he was out with TJS.

 

IP are valuable.

 

From ages 35-37, out of 150 SP'ers with 200+ IP, he ranks...

 

107th in ERA- at 105

104th in fWAR at 3.2 (1.1 per season)

72 in xFIP at 3.99 (70oth in FIP)

69th WHIP at 1.24

31st in K-BB% at 19.2%

 

He looks average, when healthy, but he's 38.

 

I'd be pissed, if we spent that much on him, and fell short of signing others by that amount.

[mvp 78]

IP are valuable.

 

From ages 35-37, out of 150 SP'ers with 200+ IP, he ranks...

 

107th in ERA- at 105

104th in fWAR at 3.2 (1.1 per season)

72 in xFIP at 3.99 (70oth in FIP)

69th WHIP at 1.24

31st in K-BB% at 19.2%

 

He looks average, when healthy, but he's 38.

 

I'd be pissed, if we spent that much on him, and fell short of signing others by that amount.

 

Maeda is 35 not 38? Also, giving him 1.1 per season while deducting him for being out for TJS is unfair IMO.

 

His contract is the same AAV as Kyle Gibson's. Gibson's stats are similar to Maeda except for the innings.

[moonslav59]

Maeda is 35 not 38? Also, giving him 1.1 per season while deducting him for being out for TJS is unfair IMO.

 

His contract is the same AAV as Kyle Gibson's. Gibson's stats are similar to Maeda except for the innings.

 

Innings count.

 

I thought I read he was 38. My bad.

[notin]

Innings count.

 

I thought I read he was 38. My bad.

 

He turns 36 on April 11. Still time to send a card if you’re interested…

[mvp 78]

@ChrisCotillo

The fine folks at @BaseballAmerica (namely @GeoffPontesBA and @jjcoop36) list Stephen Scott, Shane Drohan, Brendan Cellucci and Ryan Fernandez as Red Sox minor leaguers who are candidates to be taken in next week's Rule 5 draft.

 

Fernandez and Cellucci are available in the MiLB portion of the draft I believe and don't have to be added to the acquiring team's 40 man roster. Scott and Drohan would have to be taken in the MLB portion.

[Jasonbay44]

Sources: Ohtani sweepstakes are moving along and the Texas Rangers and at least one team in the AL East has dropped out. Teams who feel they aren’t real players are beginning to take themselves out of talks.

 

Update: Believe the Boston Red Sox are out, or at the very least looking elsewhere at the moment.

 

 

Not surprising

[notin]

@ChrisCotillo

The fine folks at @BaseballAmerica (namely @GeoffPontesBA and @jjcoop36) list Stephen Scott, Shane Drohan, Brendan Cellucci and Ryan Fernandez as Red Sox minor leaguers who are candidates to be taken in next week's Rule 5 draft.

 

Fernandez and Cellucci are available in the MiLB portion of the draft I believe and don't have to be added to the acquiring team's 40 man roster. Scott and Drohan would have to be taken in the MLB portion.

 

What are the eligibility requirements for the minor league portion vs the major league portion?

[harmony]

From Wednesday's MLB Trade Rumors post on potential matches in a Corbin Burnes trade:

Installing Burnes into the rotation would be a boon for the team’s 2024 outlook, but it remains to be seen whether a rookie baseball operations leader would want to part with substantial long-term talent for a one-year acquisition of Burnes on the heels of the Red Sox’ last-place finish in the division.

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2023/11/brewers-trade-rumors-corbin-burnes.html

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

The fact that Burnes is a Boras client changes the narrative about the Red Sox trading for him.

 

That doesn't guarantee Burnes wouldn't take an extension to stay in Boston... just that it's highly unlikely he'd give the Sox any kind of signing advantage; he's not a guy who grew up loving the organization, like Bogaerts. Then again, Mookie wasn't, either, when he inked his LA offer...

[Bellhorn04]

From Wednesday's MLB Trade Rumors post on potential matches in a Corbin Burnes trade:

 

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2023/11/brewers-trade-rumors-corbin-burnes.html

 

"A rotation teeming with question marks" - an apt description of the Red Sox.

[Bellhorn04]

The fact that Burnes is a Boras client changes the narrative about the Red Sox trading for him.

 

That doesn't guarantee Burnes wouldn't take an extension to stay in Boston... just that it's highly unlikely he'd give the Sox any kind of signing advantage; he's not a guy who grew up loving the organization, like Bogaerts. Then again, Mookie wasn't, either, when he inked his LA offer...

 

It's a dicey proposition.

 

When DD traded for Sale we had 3 guaranteed years. With Burnes you get 1 guaranteed year, and if he does sign an extension, it would have to be a hefty one.

 

So why not just go the free agent route?

[notin]

It's a dicey proposition.

 

When DD traded for Sale we had 3 guaranteed years. With Burnes you get 1 guaranteed year, and if he does sign an extension, it would have to be a hefty one.

 

So why not just go the free agent route?

 

The one advantage to dealing for Burnes now is you get him at his arb price for 2024 and any potential extension wouldn’t kick in until 2025 when Sale is off the books (assuming his option doesn’t trigger) and therefore more palatable to any budget concerns for this season, assuming there are any.

 

I’d still prefer a deal for a SP with multiple years of control…

[mvp 78]

What are the eligibility requirements for the minor league portion vs the major league portion?

 

Have to be eligible for Rule 5 and not included on the team’s AAA/AA reserve list.

[moonslav59]

The one advantage to dealing for Burnes now is you get him at his arb price for 2024 and any potential extension wouldn’t kick in until 2025 when Sale is off the books (assuming his option doesn’t trigger) and therefore more palatable to any budget concerns for this season, assuming there are any.

 

I’d still prefer a deal for a SP with multiple years of control…

 

Cease is not as good as Burnes, IMO, but he has 2 years.

[Randy Red Sox]

It's a dicey proposition.

 

When DD traded for Sale we had 3 guaranteed years. With Burnes you get 1 guaranteed year, and if he does sign an extension, it would have to be a hefty one.

 

So why not just go the free agent route?

 

because it starting to dwindle of high end SP.

[moonslav59]

Mets sign Severino for $13M/1 w $2M in incentives.

 

Only one year, but an overpay, IMO.

[Bellhorn04]

Mets sign Severino for $13M/1 w $2M in incentives.

 

Only one year, but an overpay, IMO.

 

Most of them are overpays. It's not the worst gamble I've ever seen.

[notin]

The fact that Burnes is a Boras client changes the narrative about the Red Sox trading for him.

 

That doesn't guarantee Burnes wouldn't take an extension to stay in Boston... just that it's highly unlikely he'd give the Sox any kind of signing advantage; he's not a guy who grew up loving the organization, like Bogaerts. Then again, Mookie wasn't, either, when he inked his LA offer...

 

Is Burnes a Boras client?

 

B-R lists his agent as CAA Sports…

[notin]

Is Burnes a Boras client?

 

B-R lists his agent as CAA Sports…

 

Scratch that. Apparently Burnes hired Boras last March and B-R.com never updated, which is a rarity for them…

[moonslav59]

Most of them are overpays. It's not the worst gamble I've ever seen.

 

No, but he's a higher gamble than Kluber was at $10M.

[Bellhorn04]

No, but he's a higher gamble than Kluber was at $10M.

 

Younger and more upside, though. (Maybe the Yankees effed him up.) Plus it helps when you're Steve Cohen and you can set $13 million on fire if you feel like it. Plus tax.

[harmony]

Mets sign Severino for $13M/1 w $2M in incentives.

 

Only one year, but an overpay, IMO.

We need to brace ourselves for costly free agent contracts.

[Bellhorn04]

We need to brace ourselves for costly free agent contracts.

 

If we're not braced by now, we're just not paying attention.

[notin]

If we're not braced by now, we're just not paying attention.

 

I care much more about the years than the money….

[notin]

Mets signed Joey Wendle, one of the best defensive middle infielders in MLB, to a 1 year $2mill deal…

[moonslav59]

We need to brace ourselves for costly free agent contracts.

 

Hard to tell. Usually the big tickets are the major overpays, but to me Nola and Gray got less than I expected, while Severino, and others got more.