Red Sox: Off Season '23-'24

[mvp 78]

I have Anthony significantly above Mayer.

 

If I had to trade one of our top 3: Anthony, Mayer or Teel, it would be Mayer.

 

And it's not that Mayer is a BAD prospect. He's still a good prospect. I just believe Anthony and Teel could be franchise type players. Maybe they don't pan out...

[mvp 78]

I doubt we were ever seriously thinking of him, so I don't think the word "pivot" applies, here.

 

I never bought into it either. The smokescreen about him being a New Balance guy was DUMB.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

Prior to coming to BOS, he played 91% of every game. He also has a career 265 average and is signed through '27.

 

Once Story's contract is closer to its conclusion, any number of prospects could be ready since the Red Sox HAVE DRAFTED AND SIGNED VIA IFA A METRIC f***TON OF SHORTSTOPS in the past few years (Zanetello, Cespedes, Anderson, Alcantara, Arias, etc.).

 

But why draft pitchers when the best players are always shortstops?!?!?! Just convert them all to the mound -- they're shortstops, so they can play anywhere!

 

Or trade them for pitchers -- like when we... hold on... thinking... like when the Sox traded Mike Aviles for John Farrell (I know he was the manager, but at least he used to pitch).

[moonslav59]

And it's not that Mayer is a BAD prospect. He's still a good prospect. I just believe Anthony and Teel could be franchise type players. Maybe they don't pan out...

 

Agreed. I'm not trying to diss Mayer. I'm just super high on Anthony and Teel, plus it seems like Mayer has more trade value.x

 

I also see a big gap between my #3 Mayer and my #4 Bleis or Cespedes.

 

[mvp 78]

But why draft pitchers when the best players are always shortstops?!?!?! Just convert them all to the mound -- they're shortstops, so they can play anywhere!

 

Or trade them for pitchers -- like when we... hold on... thinking... like when the Sox traded Mike Aviles for John Farrell (I know he was the manager, but at least he used to pitch).

 

That's why I want to trade Mayer (SS) for a pitcher.

 

Also, if they drafted more pitchers, are we sure they would have been developed properly? Their pipeline hasn't really been great in my lifetime.

[moonslav59]

But why draft pitchers when the best players are always shortstops?!?!?! Just convert them all to the mound -- they're shortstops, so they can play anywhere!

 

Or trade them for pitchers -- like when we... hold on... thinking... like when the Sox traded Mike Aviles for John Farrell (I know he was the manager, but at least he used to pitch).

 

How about HRam for Beckett?

 

Moncada for Sale?

 

(Yes, a pitcher was included, but the major piece was a non pitcher.)

[moonslav59]

That's why I want to trade Mayer (SS) for a pitcher.

 

Also, if they drafted more pitchers, are we sure they would have been developed properly? Their pipeline hasn't really been great in my lifetime.

 

Even if our pipeline was average, I think SS's have a better success rate, overall.

 

Draft a pitcher, when the estimated success rate and upside potential warrants it.

[mvp 78]

Even if our pipeline was average, I think SS's have a better success rate, overall.

 

Draft a pitcher, when the estimated success rate and upside potential warrants it.

 

There's a high variance for all prospects. Sox just do better with hitters for some reason.

 

Since 1980:

Hurst

Boyd

Clemens

Lester

Paplebon

Buchholz

Bello TBD

 

vs

 

Gedman

Boggs

Burks

Greenwell

Vaughn

Valentin

Nomar

Nixon

Pedroia

Youk

Ellsbury

Mookie

JBJ

Xander

Devers

Beni

Casas TBD

[Dipre]

But why draft pitchers when the best players are always shortstops?!?!?! Just convert them all to the mound -- they're shortstops, so they can play anywhere!

 

Or trade them for pitchers -- like when we... hold on... thinking... like when the Sox traded Mike Aviles for John Farrell (I know he was the manager, but at least he used to pitch).

 

Pretty ridiculous post all around. They can draft whatever type of players they want, then turn them into impact players. Their inability to develop pitching isn't the problem, it's their resistance to drafting for upside then trading for need, as teams like the Dodgers, Rays and Astros do.

[moonslav59]

There's a high variance for all prospects. Sox just do better with hitters for some reason.

 

Since 1980:

Hurst

Boyd

Clemens

Lester

Paplebon

Buchholz

Bello TBD

 

vs

 

Gedman

Boggs

Burks

Greenwell

Vaughn

Valentin

Nomar

Nixon

Pedroia

Youk

Ellsbury

Mookie

JBJ

Xander

Devers

Beni

Casas TBD

 

Did we used to draft pitchers more highly?

 

I know Clemens and Hurst were both #1s and Lester a #2.

 

I'm not sure if the percentage of pitchers taken in round 1 or round 1 plus 2 has gone down, or not. That could be part of the drop, but I do think the pipeline/development aspect of our system has declined.

[moonslav59]

Pretty ridiculous post all around. They can draft whatever type of players they want, then turn them into impact players. Their inability to develop pitching isn't the problem, it's their resistance to drafting for upside then trading for need, as teams like the Dodgers, Rays and Astros do.

 

Our last trade for a real good pitcher was Nate in the summer of 2018. Before that, it was a regular thing.

[notin]

How about HRam for Beckett?

 

Moncada for Sale?

 

(Yes, a pitcher was included, but the major piece was a non pitcher.)

 

Iglesias and Montas for Peavy.

 

Hey we traded a shortstop for a pitcher!

[harmony]

I have Anthony significantly above Mayer.

 

If I had to trade one of our top 3: Anthony, Mayer or Teel, it would be Mayer.

Roman Anthony could be a future All Star or the next Ryan Kalish.

 

Prospects are hard to project.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

Pretty ridiculous post all around. They can draft whatever type of players they want, then turn them into impact players. Their inability to develop pitching isn't the problem, it's their resistance to drafting for upside then trading for need, as teams like the Dodgers, Rays and Astros do.

 

But if this statement isn't too ridiculous -- "Their inability to develop pitching isn't the problem" -- on a Red Sox forum where the majority of posters say it is...

 

... then the majority of talksox just must be ridiculous, instead.

[Larry Cook]

Agreed. I'm not trying to diss Mayer. I'm just super high on Anthony and Teel, plus it seems like Mayer has more trade value.x

 

I also see a big gap between my #3 Mayer and my #4 Bleis or Cespedes.

 

 

Mayer and bleis are the only prospect in our system with superstar potential in my opinion! These kids are the real deal.

 

Anthony is really talented as well, but his ceiling is lower than Mayer’s!

 

I have not seen teel play yet as a pro, but as a college catcher, his bat did not impress me that much

[Larry Cook]

 

Maybe one day, hang’em Chaim’s draft strategy will become clear!

[moonslav59]

Roman Anthony could be a future All Star or the next Ryan Kalish.

 

Prospects are hard to project.

 

Very true, and the Sox have their share of well-hyped busts, but our record with everyday players is pretty good.

 

Since the Devers call up in 2017, there has been a lull, but we had some draft penalties, the COVID draft and a recent GM focusing on HS players early in his drafts.

 

It seems counterintuitive to think we've done better with pitching from Devers to Casas, but have a look-see:

 

Summer '17 to Summer '23

(Grad dates)

Everyday players:

Duran '22

Wong '22 (Betts trade)

Dalbec '21

 

Pitchers:

Bello '22

Houck '21

Whitlock '21 (Yankee farm system- Rule 5)

Crawford '22

Winckowski '22 (Beni trade)

 

Casas and beyond... (May 2023>>>)

Everyday:

Casas

EValdez '23 (Vaz trade)

 

Pitchers:

Bernardino (SEA system- waivers)

Murphy

Kelly

Robertson (Kike trade)

Jacquez (MiLB Rule 5)

 

Soxprospects has our 6 top prospects as non pitchers.

 

Our pitchers are...

7. Perales

9. Wikelman

15. Drohan (I think overrated)

20. Monegro

6 in a row from 23-28

7 out of 9 from 31-39

 

 

 

[moonslav59]

Mayer and bleis are the only prospect in our system with superstar potential in my opinion! These kids are the real deal.

 

Anthony is really talented as well, but his ceiling is lower than Mayer’s!

 

I have not seen teel play yet as a pro, but as a college catcher, his bat did not impress me that much

 

Bleis has the "tools" but has a very small sample size. Yes, at 19, his ceiling may be high, but I'd put my money on Anthony and Teel over him.

 

I also think Anthony and Teel may very well out perform Mayer in MLB. It's hard to know.

 

Stats aren't everything, but I like the ceilings of Anthony and Teel, too. (Also, Cespedes.)

 

Anthony is 19 and has 574 PAs in the minors.

.849 OPS

1.020 in AA (44 PA)

.981 in A+ (245)

 

Bleis is 19 and has 445 PAs in the minors.

.761 career in minors

.607 in A- (142 PAs)

.895 (167)

 

Teel is 21 and has just 114 career PAs

.977 OPS

.979 in 3 seasons of college (812 PAs)

 

Mayer is 20 w 885 PAs

.819 in minors

.609 in AA (190)

.890 A+(164-23)

.828(116 '22)

 

[Oscars]

I doubt we were ever seriously thinking of him, so I don't think the word "pivot" applies, here.

 

I will let Jeff Passan know you don’t think the Red Sox were serious bidders 😉

[cp176]

But if this statement isn't too ridiculous -- "Their inability to develop pitching isn't the problem" -- on a Red Sox forum where the majority of posters say it is...

 

... then the majority of talksox just must be ridiculous, instead.

 

Now you have crossed the line! lol

[Bellhorn04]

But if this statement isn't too ridiculous -- "Their inability to develop pitching isn't the problem" -- on a Red Sox forum where the majority of posters say it is...

 

... then the majority of talksox just must be ridiculous, instead.

 

Maybe, just maybe, when you're the 3rd richest team in the game but you've had 6 disastrous seasons in the last 12, there's a whole passel o' problems to choose from.

[Bellhorn04]

I will let Jeff Passan know you don’t think the Red Sox were serious bidders

 

"Red Sox pivot from Ohtani". So what happened? Was it:

 

a) Ohtani's team let the Red Sox know that Boston was not a preferred destination.

Ohtani's team let the Red Sox know that in spite of the TJ surgery, half a billion is still the minimum bid.

Edited December 2, 2023 by Bellhorn04

[mvp 78]

Maybe, just maybe, when you're the 3rd richest team in the game but you've had 6 disastrous seasons in the last 12, there's a whole passel o' problems to choose from.

 

One of which is developing pitching. Another is an owner that can’t stay the course.

[mvp 78]

"Red Sox pivot from Ohtani". So what happened? Was it:

 

a) Ohtani's team let the Red Sox know that Boston was not a preferred destination.

Ohtani's team let the Red Sox know that in spite of the TJ surgery, half a billion is still the minimum bid.

 

B most likely. His contract is going to be an overpay for a guy coming off his 2nd TJS.

[Bellhorn04]

One of which is developing pitching. Another is an owner that can’t stay the course.

 

Yassir.

[Bellhorn04]

B most likely. His contract is going to be an overpay for a guy coming off his 2nd TJS.

 

That's a pretty safe statement IMHO. The guy is a mega-talent but as we have seen, even mega-talents have bodies that can abruptly break down.

 

Ohtani is guaranteed to be a heckuva DH and that's basically it.

[jacksonianmarch]

B most likely. His contract is going to be an overpay for a guy coming off his 2nd TJS.

 

He is a world class hitter. If he takes the mound and returns to form, his worth will be over $500m

[Bellhorn04]

He is a world class hitter. If he takes the mound and returns to form, his worth will be over $500m

 

But it's a monster if. The fact this is his second TJ in 5 years is not something any actuary would laugh off.

[mvp 78]

He is a world class hitter. If he takes the mound and returns to form, his worth will be over $500m

 

A world class DH. The vast majority of 2x TJS guys don’t come back the same. It’s too much money to for the gamble IMO.

[mvp 78]

That's a pretty safe statement IMHO. The guy is a mega-talent but as we have seen, even mega-talents have bodies that can abruptly break down.

 

Ohtani is guaranteed to be a heckuva DH and that's basically it.

 

If it was his first TJS, I’d be much less concerned.