Red Sox: Off Season '23-'24

[notin]

You assume the richest people will always pay whatever it takes to get what they want, no matter how much the overpay is.

 

That is not always true. They didn't get to be rich by overpaying for everything.

 

I do think Cohen has an upper limit, where he realizes he could spend his money better on 2 players, instead.

 

Cohen may have a big edge, but it's not a slam dunk.

 

Certainly Cohen has an upper limit. But he has shown he is more than willing to spend what it take, and it’s a safe bet his upper limit is higher than Henry’s…

[notin]

I agree that if the Sox don't get Yamamoto they should save their money. I am fine with trading for a young cost controlled starter but want no part of Stroman. we already have 1 cancer addiction this offseason and we don't need another. Add a Bloom type SP or 2 and go with what we have now.

 

You keep insisting Stroman is some sort of cancer. But his teammates in Chicago call the diminutive (5’7”) Stroman “HDMH”, which stands for “Height Doesn’t Measure Heart”.

 

Couple that with the complete lack of negative stores about the guy, and I’m struggling with the cancer ones. Worst thing I know about him is there is a definite tattoo addiction there…

[harmony]

The Mariners might consider trading Luis Castillo to free up payroll to sign free agent lefthander Blake Snell, the Seattle native who reportedly wants to return home.

 

Castillo has a no-trade clause.

Seattle may wait for the signings of top free agent starters sign before determining the trade value of Luis Castillo.

 

Steamer projects Castillo, Blake Snell and Jordan Montgomery -- who were all born the same month -- with 2024 WAR of 3.4, 3.3 and 3.2, respectively:

 

https://www.fangraphs.com/projections?pos=&stats=pit&type=steamer

 

Aaron Nola, who is six months younger than the trio, is projected with a 2024 WAR of 4.2 after signing for seven years and $172 million.

 

Castiilo is guaranteed $91 million over four years with a 2028 vesting option that could bring the total to $116 million over five years.

 

The contracts for Snell and Montgomery should impact Castillo's trade value.

[moonslav59]

Certainly Cohen has an upper limit. But he has shown he is more than willing to spend what it take, and it’s a safe bet his upper limit is higher than Henry’s…

 

Probably, yes.

 

He also talked about scaling back for a while and dumped salary, last summer.

 

The point I'm making is Henry is capable of topping the highest point Cohen will go, unless it's some ungodly amount. Cohen is not stupid.

 

Why didn't Cohen get Ohtani- surely he wanted him. He doesn't overpay for everything he wants.

[Old Red]

Cohen went to Japan earlier, and had The Yam Man over to his house for dinner last night, so Cohen sounds pretty serious to me. The Yankees will also get a second meeting with the Yam Man. Sounds, and looks more, and more like NY, NY to me. So much for the Red Sox getting the last meeting.

[Old Red]

Probably, yes.

 

He also talked about scaling back for a while and dumped salary, last summer.

 

The point I'm making is Henry is capable of topping the highest point Cohen will go, unless it's some ungodly amount. Cohen is not stupid.

 

Why didn't Cohen get Ohtani- surely he wanted him. He doesn't overpay for everything he wants.

 

Ohtani didn’t want NY.

[moonslav59]

Seattle may wait for the signings of top free agent starters sign before determining the trade value of Luis Castillo.

 

Steamer projects Castillo, Blake Snell and Jordan Montgomery -- who were all born the same month -- with 2024 WAR of 3.4, 3.3 and 3.2, respectively:

 

https://www.fangraphs.com/projections?pos=&stats=pit&type=steamer

 

Aaron Nola, who is six months younger than the trio, is projected with a 2024 WAR of 4.2 after signing for seven years and $172 million.

 

Castiilo is guaranteed $91 million over four years with a 2028 vesting option that could bring the total to $116 million over five years.

 

The contracts for Snell and Montgomery should impact Castillo's trade value.

 

I was thinking the same thing, the other day. These massive costs for FAs has made the value of tradable pitchers higher.

 

I hope the Sox kick the tires on trading for Castillo, but I know you devalue every Sox player we suggest. (BTW, I devalue Duran, too, but not by as much as you.)

 

[notin]

Probably, yes.

 

He also talked about scaling back for a while and dumped salary, last summer.

 

The point I'm making is Henry is capable of topping the highest point Cohen will go, unless it's some ungodly amount. Cohen is not stupid.

 

Why didn't Cohen get Ohtani- surely he wanted him. He doesn't overpay for everything he wants.

 

He only dumped aging salary and ancillary pieces.

 

And “scaling back” is a relative term. If he dropped his $40mill AAV pitchers to accommodate a $30mill AAV pitcher, that’s technically “scaling back”…

[Hugh2]

Cohen went to Japan earlier, and had The Yam Man over to his house for dinner last night, so Cohen sounds pretty serious to me. The Yankees will also get a second meeting with the Yam Man. Sounds, and looks more, and more like NY, NY to me. So much for the Red Sox getting the last meeting.

 

Apparently he’s doing a second round of interviews and accepted an invitation to visit Fenway. Allegedly the Sox also told Yamamoto they would be willing to up their offer.

 

Not surprised Yamamoto is meeting with everyone, I’d do the same thing if I was in his shoes. Honestly, I think the Dodgers are more of a risk than the NY teams. They have the wallets, and unlike the other two NY teams their luxury tax situation isn’t complete crap

[Hugh2]

He only dumped aging salary and ancillary pieces.

 

And “scaling back” is a relative term. If he dropped his $40mill AAV pitchers to accommodate a $30mill AAV pitcher, that’s technically “scaling back”…

 

And he’d be paying 80 million a year for a 30 million dollar pitcher. It’s not exchange rates, Cohen is paying double the price as everyone else because he incurs every single penalty.

[Old Red]

Apparently he’s doing a second round of interviews and accepted an invitation to visit Fenway. Allegedly the Sox also told Yamamoto they would be willing to up their offer.

 

Not surprised Yamamoto is meeting with everyone, I’d do the same thing if I was in his shoes. Honestly, I think the Dodgers are more of a risk than the NY teams. They have the wallets, and unlike the other two NY teams their luxury tax situation isn’t complete crap

 

Boris is loving every second of this too.

[notin]

Apparently he’s doing a second round of interviews and accepted an invitation to visit Fenway. Allegedly the Sox also told Yamamoto they would be willing to up their offer.

 

Not surprised Yamamoto is meeting with everyone, I’d do the same thing if I was in his shoes. Honestly, I think the Dodgers are more of a risk than the NY teams. They have the wallets, and unlike the other two NY teams their luxury tax situation isn’t complete crap

 

I’m sticking with the Mets as the most likely destination for Yamamoto. They offloaded a ton of salary at the last trade deadline and their biggest off-season addition to date is Luis Severino. Given the embarrassing debacle of last year, they are most definitely not standing pat.

 

However sometimes a team does come out of nowhere in these things. How many Ohtani/Angels stories were there when he came over?

[notin]

And he’d be paying 80 million a year for a 30 million dollar pitcher. It’s not exchange rates, Cohen is paying double the price as everyone else because he incurs every single penalty.

 

It’s all part of one drop in his multibillion dollar bucket.

 

At some point, he will probably reign things in and dial spending back to reasonable (for him) levels. But after an “all in” season that had the Mets just above last place? I don’t think so…

[moonslav59]

He only dumped aging salary and ancillary pieces.

 

And “scaling back” is a relative term. If he dropped his $40mill AAV pitchers to accommodate a $30mill AAV pitcher, that’s technically “scaling back”…

 

I'm not arguing that Cohen is not setting things up to get Yamo. I agree he is the front runner. I'm arguing you giving JH near zero percent chance of going above Cohen's comfort zone.

 

Unless Cohen's top limit is absurd, a few teams still have a shot, IMO.

[Bellhorn04]

I'm not arguing that Cohen is not setting things up to get Yamo. I agree he is the front runner. I'm arguing you giving JH near zero percent chance of going above Cohen's comfort zone.

 

Unless Cohen's top limit is absurd, a few teams still have a shot, IMO.

 

We're only talking degrees of absurd at this point.

[moonslav59]

It’s all part of one drop in his multibillion dollar bucket.

 

At some point, he will probably reign things in and dial spending back to reasonable (for him) levels. But after an “all in” season that had the Mets just above last place? I don’t think so…

 

What is the major difference in spending ...

 

$380M out of an estimated $5 billion in net worth of JH

 

vs

 

$500M (counting lux tax) out of and estimated $20 billion net worth.

 

Aren't they both drops in the bucket?

 

Why is it so hard to even imagine JH might want Yamo even more than Cohen?

 

The price is not going to Ohtani limits.

[moonslav59]

We're only talking degrees of absurd at this point.

 

Is it really any more absurd for JH to spend $400M over Cohen spending $500+M (counting lux tax?)

 

I think both have a point where they think it would be wiser to spend that absurdly high price on two players, instead. How do we know where each owner has set their absurd point?

 

Yes, it seems more likely Cohen's would be higher, since his net worth is 4 times JH's, but with both, it's really just a drop in the bucket, as notin stated.

 

I'm not saying the Sox will outbid the Mets. I don't think we will, but to say "We have no chance" is not right, IMO.

 

[Bellhorn04]

Is it really any more absurd for JH to spend $400M over Cohen spending $500+M (counting lux tax?)

 

I think both have a point where they think it would be wiser to spend that absurdly high price on two players, instead. How do we know where each owner has set their absurd point?

 

Yes, it seems more likely Cohen's would be higher, since his net worth is 4 times JH's, but with both, it's really just a drop in the bucket, as notin stated.

 

I'm not saying the Sox will outbid the Mets. I don't think we will, but to say "We have no chance" is not right, IMO.

 

 

I tend to agree. But I also think at the end of the day it's going to come down to where Moto really wants to play. The money is already way past the original projections.

[Randy Red Sox]

You keep insisting Stroman is some sort of cancer. But his teammates in Chicago call the diminutive (5’7”) Stroman “HDMH”, which stands for “Height Doesn’t Measure Heart”.

 

Couple that with the complete lack of negative stores about the guy, and I’m struggling with the cancer ones. Worst thing I know about him is there is a definite tattoo addiction there…

 

i watched him with the Jays for years. he may have heart but he's a punk and he's not even that good. Not much of an upgrade at this point in my view.

[moonslav59]

I tend to agree. But I also think at the end of the day it's going to come down to where Moto really wants to play. The money is already way past the original projections.

 

IMO, if one team offer $5M more, he'll go there. If the difference is less, he may choose where he prefers.

 

I get the point about Cohen being more committed to spending to win, but do the Mets really look more likely to win over the next 5-10 years over BOS?

 

Our farm looks better, and 5 of our top 6 prospects are due by the end of 2025 (9 of our top 11, too.) I'm not saying Yamo is looking at farm projections, but I like our future outlook better than the Mets. The Yanks don't look all that well set for the long term outlook, either. Does SF? If it's about choosing the team that looks better set for winning from 2024 to 2033, there is no clear leader.

[Bellhorn04]

IMO, if one team offer $5M more, he'll go there. If the difference is less, he may choose where he prefers.

 

I really don't think it's going to come down to one team winning by outbidding the other by $5 mill.

 

When the Yankees signed Cole, there were reportedly 3 teams who offered him 8 years @ $36. The Yankees won by making it 9 years @ $36.

 

When the Cubs outbid the Sox for Lester, the teams had both reportedly offered $135 mill, and Theo won by jumping the bid to $155 mill.

 

It's like you really have to establish that you are the one who will not be outbid by doing something extra crazy.

[moonslav59]

i watched him with the Jays for years. he may have heart but he's a punk and he's not even that good. Not much of an upgrade at this point in my view.

 

We aren't going to sign him to be our ace. (I hope.)

 

Can you explain why he's a punk?

 

Why a "punk" can't be good at pitching?

 

Not even that good? How good is "not that good" to you?

 

2021-2023: (200+ IP/190 pitchers)

454 IP (34th in MLB) 151 per season

3.45 ERA (43rd)

84 ERA- (45th) Better than Nate, Montgomery, Kirby & Pablo Lopez

86 xFIP- (37th)

8.3 fWAR (35th) 2.8 per season

 

2019-2023 (135 pitchers with 350+ IP)

81 ERA- (24th) better than Valdez, Snell and Guasman

86 xFIP- (31st) better than Nate, Eflin, Montgomery and Luzardo

12.1 fWAR (31st, despite missing 2020)

[moonslav59]

I really don't think it's going to come down to one team winning by outbidding the other by $5 mill.

 

When the Yankees signed Cole, there were reportedly 3 teams who offered him 8 years @ $36. The Yankees won by making it 9 years @ $36.

 

When the Cubs outbid the Sox for Lester, the teams had both reportedly offered $135 mill, and Theo won by jumping the bid to $155 mill.

 

It's like you really have to establish that you are the one who will not be outbid by doing something extra crazy.

 

Of course, if someone blows the others away, it will be an easy choice.

 

The Ohtani blockbuster contract was reportedly about even between TOR, SFG and LAD.

[Bellhorn04]

Of course, if someone blows the others away, it will be an easy choice.

 

The Ohtani blockbuster contract was reportedly about even between TOR, SFG and LAD.

 

Yes. So why did he choose the Dodgers? Better looking team and better looking organization, would be my guess.

[notin]

I tend to agree. But I also think at the end of the day it's going to come down to where Moto really wants to play. The money is already way past the original projections.

 

I think any offer way out of line with the others (in a good way), that’s where he signs. A bunch of relatively equal ones, and it comes down to his preference.

 

Hopefully he really respects his former teammate Yoshida…

[notin]

Sox rumored target Lourdes Gurriel Jr. is off the board.

 

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2023/12/diamondbacks-to-sign-lourdes-gurriel-jr.html

[moonslav59]

Yes. So why did he choose the Dodgers? Better looking team and better looking organization, would be my guess.

 

Agreed.

 

Now, assume he gets close offers from BOS, NYY and NYM, I'm not so sure there is a clear choice on which of these 3 teams is better situated to win in the next 5-10 years.

 

Cohen is likely to spend more.

 

The Yanks have more tradition, but not over the last 20 years.

 

The Sox have the most rings, this century, a better farm and a comparable 26 and 40 man roster foundation as the other two.

[moonslav59]

I really don't think it's going to come down to one team winning by outbidding the other by $5 mill.

 

When the Yankees signed Cole, there were reportedly 3 teams who offered him 8 years @ $36. The Yankees won by making it 9 years @ $36.

 

That is often the case, but going on the assumption that nobody has blown anyone away, yet, do you think if Cohen offers $350M/10 and JH counters with $370M/11, Cohen will jump to $450M/12?

[Larry Cook]

Sox rumored target Lourdes Gurriel Jr. is off the board.

 

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2023/12/diamondbacks-to-sign-lourdes-gurriel-jr.html

 

He has had some great at bats against us for years

[Bellhorn04]

That is often the case, but going on the assumption that nobody has blown anyone away, yet, do you think if Cohen offers $350M/10 and JH counters with $370M/11, Cohen will jump to $450M/12?

 

Who knows? But that'd be crazy even for Cohen.