Red Sox: Off Season '23-'24

[moonslav59]

Dalbec did not have an OBP above .300 in any month before August. Basically his uptick coincided with not having to face righties anymore. And of course, being this miserable against right-handed pitchers means you can't be a big league starter.

 

I'm not sure why OBP is the definer, here, but Dalbec did not really play FT before or after AUG.

 

Over the season, he started 63 games vs LHPs and 52 vs RHPs. He had almost the same PAs v LHPs (230) and RHPs (223.) I'll take your word for it, that a big shift happened in August, but here are his monthly PA totals:

76 APR

74 May

82 June

64 July (long AS break)

72 Aug

85 Sept (most of any month)

 

He did have one long stretch of .300+ OBPs, but just not a full month:

.307 by taking away his first 2 games of June (JUN5-JUN30)

 

OBP has been his big issue once reaching the bigs. Too many Ks was his problem in the minors, too, but he walked a lot, there.

 

[Bellhorn04]

Time to give Dalbec a chance somewhere else.

[notin]

Time to give Dalbec a chance somewhere else.

 

Agreed. He simply isn’t an MLB player. His ceiling is utility bench player, but he lacks any real versatility so far.

 

There are teams that will be interested in him because he doesn’t make a lot of money, but his appeal ends there. DFA him and then call Cherington or Forst and let them know…

[Randy Red Sox]

Why are we wasting time here on 1B and Bobby Dalbec? Casas is the 1B and Dalbec can simply be released as he has had numerous chances. Let's focus on what the Sox REALLY need and that is PITCHING, PITCHING, and then MORE pitching.

[notin]

Why are we wasting time here on 1B and Bobby Dalbec? Casas is the 1B and Dalbec can simply be released as he has had numerous chances. Let's focus on what the Sox REALLY need and that is PITCHING, PITCHING, and then MORE pitching.

 

It’s not like the Red Sox are talking about him. Just us on this inconsequential message board forum. The Sox people do not read what we say, and probably wouldn’t care if they did.

 

 

If we talk about pitching, think it makes a difference in what the team does?

[sk7326]

I'm not sure why OBP is the definer, here, but Dalbec did not really play FT before or after AUG.

 

Over the season, he started 63 games vs LHPs and 52 vs RHPs. He had almost the same PAs v LHPs (230) and RHPs (223.) I'll take your word for it, that a big shift happened in August, but here are his monthly PA totals:

76 APR

74 May

82 June

64 July (long AS break)

72 Aug

85 Sept (most of any month)

 

He did have one long stretch of .300+ OBPs, but just not a full month:

.307 by taking away his first 2 games of June (JUN5-JUN30)

 

OBP has been his big issue once reaching the bigs. Too many Ks was his problem in the minors, too, but he walked a lot, there.

 

 

Fair enough. I use OBP because it is the much more important side of the OPS equation ... and there is almost no combination of defense and power where a sub .300 OBP guy is a big league corner. Either way, he is the consummate 4A player.

[moonslav59]

Fair enough. I use OBP because it is the much more important side of the OPS equation ... and there is almost no combination of defense and power where a sub .300 OBP guy is a big league corner. Either way, he is the consummate 4A player.

 

I also value OBP more than SLG. I think a better stat would be 3 x OBP + 2 x SLG/5.

 

Bobby Dee had very good OBPs in the minors but just cannot get that to work in the bigs. It's not uncommon for big K guys.

 

He still has time to improve on that, but I do not think it will be with the Sox, if anyone.

[Bellhorn04]

I'd like to see Dalbec get 500 PA's with a bottom feeder team to see what he can do. He's still got that big time power, that's what you hate to give up on.

[moonslav59]

I'd like to see Dalbec get 500 PA's with a bottom feeder team to see what he can do. He's still got that big time power, that's what you hate to give up on.

 

There might be sliver of hope he can get his OBP up enough to not be a neg negative, but that has not been the case, so far.

 

He did hit .730 v RHPs in 2021, so there may also be hope he can be more than a shortside platoon DH, which means nothing in MLB. There is no such position.

 

While .730 is not good enough, I do think he gets a shot soewhere- just not with Boston.

[mvp 78]

Today is the first day of FA, FYI.

[moonslav59]

MLBTR reports....

 

Justin Turner is “atop [the Diamondbacks’] wish list” this offseason, USA Today’s Bob Nightengale writes. It isn’t any surprise that the D’Backs would be in pursuit of Turner, as the team also had interest in the veteran infielder last winter, and Turner’s stock is quite high after a successful year with the Red Sox.

[mvp 78]

@tylermilliken_

.

@TheAthletic

put out their Top 40 Free Agents big board and this is who they listed as their “best fits” being the Red Sox.

 

⚾️ Aaron Nola (6 years, 180 MM)

⚾️ Yoshinobu Yamamoto (7 years, 203 MM)

⚾️ Cody Bellinger (6 years, 162 MM)

⚾️ Jordan Montgomery (5 years, 105 MM)

⚾️ Eduardo Rodriguez (5 years, 80 MM)

⚾️ Marcus Stroman (3 years, 63 MM)

⚾️ Tim Anderson (1 year, 14 MM)

⚾️ Hyun-Jin Ryu (1 year, 11 MM)

⚾️ Whit Merrifield (2 years, 19 MM)

[mvp 78]

If you only have 50M to spend from that list, does Yamamoto/Ryu/Merrifield make sense? You get a #1, a serviceable starter and fix the 2B problem while providing additional speed and a RHB.

[mvp 78]

Or just sign Yamamoto and Montgomery and call it an offseason?

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

@tylermilliken_

.

@TheAthletic

put out their Top 40 Free Agents big board and this is who they listed as their “best fits” being the Red Sox.

 

⚾️ Aaron Nola (6 years, 180 MM)

⚾️ Yoshinobu Yamamoto (7 years, 203 MM)

⚾️ Cody Bellinger (6 years, 162 MM)

⚾️ Jordan Montgomery (5 years, 105 MM)

⚾️ Eduardo Rodriguez (5 years, 80 MM)

⚾️ Marcus Stroman (3 years, 63 MM)

⚾️ Tim Anderson (1 year, 14 MM)

⚾️ Hyun-Jin Ryu (1 year, 11 MM)

⚾️ Whit Merrifield (2 years, 19 MM)

 

YES to Yamamoto, Montgomery, Stroman, Ryu...

 

... ALL of them.

 

Is there any money left for a pretzel?

[moonslav59]

@tylermilliken_

.

@TheAthletic

put out their Top 40 Free Agents big board and this is who they listed as their “best fits” being the Red Sox.

 

⚾️ Aaron Nola (6 years, 180 MM)

⚾️ Yoshinobu Yamamoto (7 years, 203 MM)

⚾️ Cody Bellinger (6 years, 162 MM)

⚾️ Jordan Montgomery (5 years, 105 MM)

⚾️ Eduardo Rodriguez (5 years, 80 MM)

⚾️ Marcus Stroman (3 years, 63 MM)

⚾️ Tim Anderson (1 year, 14 MM)

⚾️ Hyun-Jin Ryu (1 year, 11 MM)

⚾️ Whit Merrifield (2 years, 19 MM)

 

I see Montgomery and ERod as the bargains on this list.

 

I'd prefer the Yamamoto deal to the Nola one.

 

I would not pay that for Stroman.

 

Bellinger (LHB) would certainly mean we trade Dugo. I'd prefer Duvall on a shorter, less expensive contract.

 

$14M for Tim Anderson seems steep, even if we trade or non tender Urias and his $5M estimated contract.

 

Ryu is too similar to Kluber and Richards.

 

Merrifield will be 35, has an OPS+ of 92 since '21, and is not the defender he used to be.

[moonslav59]

Or just sign Yamamoto and Montgomery and call it an offseason?

 

I'd rather do that than sign just one and spend the rest on Duvall and a 2Bman or Wacha.

[moonslav59]

Or just sign Yamamoto and Montgomery and call it an offseason?

 

That might come close to the estimated $49M we have to spend and stay below the tax line.

 

We could go over by signing Duvall and Wacha, and maybe stay under the second line. That would leave us with this:

 

SP: Yamamoto, Montgomery, Bello, Wacha, Pivetta/Sale

LR: Houck, Crawford, Whitlock, Pivetta/Murphy

SR: Jansen, Martin, Winckowski, Schreiber, (Murphy/Bernardino/Mata, who is out of options)

 

1. Duran/Refsnyder LF

2. Devers 3B

3. Story SS

4. Casas 1B

5. Duvall CF/RF

6. Yoshida DH

7. Dugo RF/Rafaela CF/Abreu CF/RF

8. Urias/Reyes 2B

9. Wong/McGuire C

[moonslav59]

RIP Dick Drago

 

He was a big part of our '78 and '79 teams:

143 ERA+ in 166 IP, almost all in relief over those two seasons.

3.29 FIP

(Only a 5.9 K/9 rate, but the guy was good at getting outs.)

[moonslav59]

Sox decline Joely's $4.5M option and pay the $500K buyout.

Sox outright Justin Garza.

Turner declines player option.

[mvp 78]

I see Montgomery and ERod as the bargains on this list.

 

I'd prefer the Yamamoto deal to the Nola one.

 

I would not pay that for Stroman.

 

Bellinger (LHB) would certainly mean we trade Dugo. I'd prefer Duvall on a shorter, less expensive contract.

 

$14M for Tim Anderson seems steep, even if we trade or non tender Urias and his $5M estimated contract.

 

Ryu is too similar to Kluber and Richards.

 

Merrifield will be 35, has an OPS+ of 92 since '21, and is not the defender he used to be.

 

For Merrifield, bref lists the most similar batter as Bill Mueller. As Fred Durst says, you know what time it is...

[mvp 78]

I'd rather do that than sign just one and spend the rest on Duvall and a 2Bman or Wacha.

 

Well, we don't really know what the offseason budget is. If it's 50M, then there is no "rest" for Duvall.

[moonslav59]

Well, we don't really know what the offseason budget is. If it's 50M, then there is no "rest" for Duvall.

 

If it's $50M, we can sign one major SP'er and have "the rest" for Duvall and Wacha.

[Nick]

Or just sign Yamamoto and Montgomery and call it an offseason?

 

Yes...quit messing around with mediocrity.

 

Was Paxton really a bargain? We paid him while he rehabbed in 2022.

[moonslav59]

Yes...quit messing around with mediocrity.

 

Was Paxton really a bargain? We paid him while he rehabbed in 2022.

 

fangraph's had his 2023 value at $8.3M in 2023 and $0.0 in 2022.

 

He was paid $10M over the 2 years.

 

Not a bargain, but not a total bust, either.

 

(He had -$6M value in '22 and +$4.3 value in '23.)

[moonslav59]

Yes...quit messing around with mediocrity.

 

Was Paxton really a bargain? We paid him while he rehabbed in 2022.

 

I'd like to see us sign....

 

A)

1 from Yamamoto, Gray, Nola, Snell

1 from Montgomery, ERod, Morton

1 from Wacha or Giolito/Stroman at the right price.

 

2 from Gray, Snell, Montgomery, ERod & Morton

Plus Wacha

[moonslav59]

Spotrac has these numbers for "market value." they do not list Yamamoto.

 

In $ millions

 

37 Kershaw

25 Nola

24 Urias (must not read the news)

24 Snell

20 ERod

20 Gray

18 Montgomery

18 Wacha

17 Morton

 

16 Stroman

14 Clevinger

12 Giolito

12 Severino

12 Maeda

11 Flaherty

10 Greinke, Lugo, Kluber

9 Cueto, Paxton, Hill, Loernzen, Gibson

8 Velazquez, Ryu, Miley, Lynn

7 Carrasco, ZDavies

6 Wood, Teheran

4 B Keller

 

 

[sk7326]

If you only have 50M to spend from that list, does Yamamoto/Ryu/Merrifield make sense? You get a #1, a serviceable starter and fix the 2B problem while providing additional speed and a RHB.

 

That makes sense to me. I might subsitute Merrifield with Anderson on a prove-it deal. I wouldn't call myself bullish on either player - but I would not be surprised if Anderson bounced back some. He was arguably the worst regular in the league last year which seems flukish to me.

 

Yamamoto is my top target - even with a bit more risk, 25 year olds are not hitting the open market. I would be surprised if Nola did not return to Philadelphia though it's certainly possible. I mean a 7/200 meal for Yamamoto means he is still just 32 at the end of it.

[moonslav59]

That makes sense to me. I might subsitute Merrifield with Anderson on a prove-it deal. I wouldn't call myself bullish on either player - but I would not be surprised if Anderson bounced back some. He was arguably the worst regular in the league last year which seems flukish to me.

 

Yamamoto is my top target - even with a bit more risk, 25 year olds are not hitting the open market. I would be surprised if Nola did not return to Philadelphia though it's certainly possible. I mean a 7/200 meal for Yamamoto means he is still just 32 at the end of it.

 

Value wise, I'd prefer Urias and Reyes at about $6M total than either Anderson or Merrifield.

 

Urias may do better than both, next season.

 

Use the $9-14M to sign Duvall or Wacha.

[Hugh2]

Value wise, I'd prefer Urias and Reyes at about $6M total than either Anderson or Merrifield.

 

Urias may do better than both, next season.

 

Use the $9-14M to sign Duvall or Wacha.

 

I wouldn't mind taking a swing at a 1 year with Anderson, they could strike gold if he has a bounce-back year. He fits the bill.