Red Sox: Off Season '23-'24

[Nick]

You think Duran has "proven himself?"

 

It's worth the risk Moon. If you sit on him too long, he play out to his free agency.

 

He was able to make adjustments offensively this year.

 

Sure, pick away.

 

I'll f***ing take a $80M risk for 6-8 years on him.

[Old Red]

Then he "managed" the guys who decided to fire Bloom, right?

 

Bottom line Cora ended up with more power NOW, and Bloom is out of a job, so call it what you want. I don’t believe having a say, and a hand in the matter is managing the guys who fired him, but looks like he’s their R Hand Man now.

[Old Red]

Somehow, our OF finished 5th in OPS and 12th in fWAR.

 

In 2022, the OF finished 27th in fWAR and 24th in OPS.

 

Dugy, and NOshida helped those numbers out earlier in the year, but not so much later on.

[Old Red]

It's worth the risk Moon. If you sit on him too long, he play out to his free agency.

 

He was able to make adjustments offensively this year.

 

Sure, pick away.

 

I'll f***ing take a $80M risk for 6-8 years on him.

To me it’s a lot bigger risk, to lock him up now then it is to sit on him.

Edited October 6, 2023 by Old Red

[moonslav59]

Bottom line Cora ended up with more power NOW, and Bloom is out of a job, so call it what you want. I don’t believe having a say, and a hand in the matter is managing the guys who fired him, but looks like he’s their R Hand Man now.

 

Certainly Cora has more power, now.

 

Your original post said "managed," which was talking about the past.

[moonslav59]

It's worth the risk Moon. If you sit on him too long, he play out to his free agency.

 

He was able to make adjustments offensively this year.

 

Sure, pick away.

 

I'll f***ing take a $80M risk for 6-8 years on him.

 

Dalbec his very well for 3 straight months. Duran couldn't do it for 2 straight.

 

He already has 4 years of team control. It's not a top priority, to me.

 

The guy sucked, last year. His defense improved to near acceptable in LF and still sa negative in CF. He hit well in 2 of 4 months.

 

He hasn't earned $80M.

[moonslav59]

Dugy, and NOshida helped those numbers out earlier in the year, but not so much later on.

 

As with just about everyone.

 

Even when doing well, they weren't "murderer's row," but they were better than acceptable.

[Old Red]

Dalbec his very well for 3 straight months. Duran couldn't do it for 2 straight.

 

He already has 4 years of team control. It's not a top priority, to me.

 

The guy sucked, last year. His defense improved to near acceptable in LF and still sa negative in CF. He hit well in 2 of 4 months.

 

He hasn't earned $80M.

 

Agree, and like I said earlier Duran had some good flashes this past season, but to me would have to show it over a longer period of time. Certainly not someone I would hang my hat on.

[notin]

Dalbec his very well for 3 straight months. Duran couldn't do it for 2 straight.

 

He already has 4 years of team control. It's not a top priority, to me.

 

The guy sucked, last year. His defense improved to near acceptable in LF and still sa negative in CF. He hit well in 2 of 4 months.

 

He hasn't earned $80M.

 

I’m sure you can extend Duran lot going all the way to $80mill…

[moonslav59]

Agree, and like I said earlier Duran had some good flashes this past season, but to me would have to show it over a longer period of time. Certainly not someone I would hang my hat on.

 

His speed offers some excitement, but he doesn't seem like a very bright base runner.

His defense improved, but he barely okay in LF.

He has changed his approach, so often, and has had struggles, so often, it's hard for me to think about locking him up- long term. We have him for 4 more years: one pre-arb and 3 arbs.

 

I don't see any urgency.

 

Keeping the LF and CF slots open for Duran, Refsnyder, Abreu and Rafaela is still a gamble.

[Old Red]

His speed offers some excitement, but he doesn't seem like a very bright base runner.

His defense improved, but he barely okay in LF.

He has changed his approach, so often, and has had struggles, so often, it's hard for me to think about locking him up- long term. We have him for 4 more years: one pre-arb and 3 arbs.

 

I don't see any urgency.

 

Keeping the LF and CF slots open for Duran, Refsnyder, Abreu and Rafaela is still a gamble.

 

Ref Man is what he is a platoon player, but the other 3 haven’t proven that they can play good enough in the ML that they can become FT players.

[moonslav59]

Ref Man is what he is a platoon player, but the other 3 haven’t proven that they can play good enough in the ML that they can become FT players.

 

Agreed, but with Yoshida able to play LF, I think we will roll the dice in the OF.

 

I see us signing Duvall and trading Dugo.

 

RF: Duvall/Abreu (Refsnyder)

CF: Rafaela/Abreu (Duran)

LF: Duran/Refsnyder (Yoshida)

 

We may get by, even if two fail.

[Old Red]

Agreed, but with Yoshida able to play LF, I think we will roll the dice in the OF.

 

I see us signing Duvall and trading Dugo.

 

RF: Duvall/Abreu (Refsnyder)

CF: Rafaela/Abreu (Duran)

LF: Duran/Refsnyder (Yoshida)

 

We may get by, even if two fail.

 

I don’t think you will get Duvall for only 1 year this time though.

[Bellhorn04]

It's worth the risk Moon. If you sit on him too long, he play out to his free agency.

 

He was able to make adjustments offensively this year.

 

Sure, pick away.

 

I'll f***ing take a $80M risk for 6-8 years on him.

 

Now here's something you and I agree on, Nick.

 

I would not trade Duran. I think he can be a valuable weapon on offense. His speed is elite.

 

Losing Duran hurt the offense, and then losing Casas finished it off.

[Old Red]

Now here's something you and I agree on, Nick.

 

I would not trade Duran. I think he can be a valuable weapon on offense. His speed is elite.

 

Losing Duran hurt the offense, and then losing Casas finished it off.

 

Duran was 10-52 for August, so yes that hurt the offense. Who knows what he would have done in Sept. 236 OBP, and a 192 BA were not getting it done.

Edited October 6, 2023 by Old Red

[Bellhorn04]

Duran was 10-52 for August, so yes that hurt the offense. Who knows what he would have done in Sept. 236 OBP, and a 192 BA were not getting it done.

 

The cherry-picking that goes on here is amazing.

 

He still ended up with an .828 OPS and a 121 OPS+. So 21% better than average. Hitting isn't as easy as some people seem to think.

 

Plus 24 steals, only 2 caught stealing, only 3 double play balls.

 

He did pretty damn good IMHO, especially given the low expectations coming in.

[mvp 78]

Dalbec his very well for 3 straight months. Duran couldn't do it for 2 straight.

 

He already has 4 years of team control. It's not a top priority, to me.

 

The guy sucked, last year. His defense improved to near acceptable in LF and still sa negative in CF. He hit well in 2 of 4 months.

 

He hasn't earned $80M.

 

What 3 straight months?

[moonslav59]

What 3 straight months?

 

You are correct. It was 3 out of 4. June, August & Sept 2021.

 

Despite the bad July, he still managed an .843 OPS from May 15 to Oct 3, 2021.

 

(.827 May 1-Oct 3- 5 months combined)

Edited October 6, 2023 by moonslav59

[Old Red]

The cherry-picking that goes on here is amazing.

 

He still ended up with an .828 OPS and a 121 OPS+. So 21% better than average. Hitting isn't as easy as some people seem to think.

 

Plus 24 steals, only 2 caught stealing, only 3 double play balls.

 

He did pretty damn good IMHO, especially given the low expectations coming in.

I know hitting isn’t as easy as some people think. Wasn’t it Ted who said taking a round ball, and trying to hit it square with a round bat isn’t easy? I said he had some good flashes this year, but I just want to see him do it for a longer period of time, before I give him a FT job let alone locking him up.

[moonslav59]

I don’t think you will get Duvall for only 1 year this time though.

 

Fine. Ref's deal ends after 2024.

[moonslav59]

The cherry-picking that goes on here is amazing.

 

 

Like that guy going nutty over McGuire's CERA after a couple months.

 

[Bellhorn04]

Like that guy going nutty over McGuire's CERA after a couple months.

 

 

It was longer than that with McGuire. It was 2 months in 2022 and maybe 3 months in 2023.

 

McGuire ended up with a 5.30 CERA for 2023, BTW. It improved, obviously, but it's still pretty large.

Edited October 6, 2023 by Bellhorn04

[moonslav59]

It was longer than that with McGuire. It was 2 months in 2022 and maybe 3 months in 2023.

 

McGuire ended up with a 5.30 CERA for 2023, BTW. It improved, obviously, but it's still pretty large.

 

You mean the 29 games started in 2022 plus the 19 GS in April & May of '23?

 

The pitchers did well with him after May 24th, 2023.

[Bellhorn04]

You mean the 29 games started in 2022 plus the 19 GS in April & May of '23?

 

His CERA is still fat. Really no need to bring him into this anyway. Why not just talk about Duran, the actual subject of the conversation?

[moonslav59]

It was longer than that with McGuire. It was 2 months in 2022 and maybe 3 months in 2023.

 

McGuire ended up with a 5.30 CERA for 2023, BTW. It improved, obviously, but it's still pretty large.

 

Nobody else caught Kluber.

 

Wong caught Paxton about 5:1 and Sale about 6:1.

 

It's not a straight comp.

 

Go one by one, with each pitcher who has a large enough sample size with both catchers, and the story flips.

[Maxbialystock]

Dalbec his very well for 3 straight months. Duran couldn't do it for 2 straight.

 

He already has 4 years of team control. It's not a top priority, to me.

 

The guy sucked, last year. His defense improved to near acceptable in LF and still sa negative in CF. He hit well in 2 of 4 months.

 

He hasn't earned $80M.

 

Agree on the $80M, but you gotta like that .828 OPS, the speed on the basepaths, and the 2.2 WAR.

 

You are always touting Refsnyder, but his WAR is a measly 0.4, he can't hit freaking righties, and his DWAR is -0.3 compared to Duran's -0.4. The Sox need some good righty bats, but Refsnyder ain't one, not when he can't hit righties.

[moonslav59]

His CERA is still fat. Really no need to bring him into this anyway. Why not just talk about Duran, the actual subject of the conversation?

 

I've given my opinion on Duran.

 

I responded to your comment about "cherry-picking."

 

Duran has been highly inconsistent. He has changed his approach almost as many times as years in our system. His defense showed a major change, almost overnight. I think it is fair to say, more time is needed. It's not like I'm changing my criteria. I'm pretty consistent on thinking what others think is a sufficient sample size as not being one, to me.

 

I'm all for starting the season with Duran and Refsnyder platooning in LF and Yoshida at DH and insurance, in case the LF situation implodes.

 

We are not that far away from a time when just about this entire board was done with Duran or very close to it.

 

I'm not short-changing what he did. I'm handing him the LF job for most of the games and am totally willing to let him earn a non-platoon role. If refsnyder was not our best hitter vs LHPs since the start of 2022, I'd be okay with Duran FT in LF.

 

I don't want him in CF or RF.

[moonslav59]

Agree on the $80M, but you gotta like that .828 OPS, the speed on the basepaths, and the 2.2 WAR.

 

 

I love it- just like I did Dalbec's finish to 2021, which was a larger sample size.

 

Dalbec was at .819 after his first 545 PAs.

Edited October 6, 2023 by moonslav59

[moonslav59]

You are always touting Refsnyder, but his WAR is a measly 0.4, he can't hit freaking righties, and his DWAR is -0.3 compared to Duran's -0.4. The Sox need some good righty bats, but Refsnyder ain't one, not when he can't hit righties.

 

Part of the reason Refsnyder's fWAR is so low, is because he started more games vs RHPs in 2022 than LHPs. He's a negative vs RHPs, and that is a serious issue that complicates a 26 man roster and a manager's in-game choices. I get that, but to me, this outweighs the problems, and we have some really crappy hitters vs LHPs:

 

2022-2023 v LHPs: (OF in Red)

1.038 Bogey (not on team)

.998 JD (not on team)

.900 Turner (likely not on 2024 team)

.889 Refsnyder

.814 Vaz (not on team)

.784 Devers

.783 Story

.777 Cassas

.772 Reyes

.756 Duvall (FA after '23)

.746 Yoshida

.652 Verdugo

.611 Duran

.477 Wong

 

I love Duran's speed, and he started showing he could hit lefties better in 2023, but I'm not benching Ref vs LHPs, and I don't want ref or Duran playing CF or RF, but I could see benching Dugo vs LHPs and not Duran.

 

[Maxbialystock]

I love it- just like I did Dalbec's finish to 2021.

 

Dalbec's WAR for 2021 was 0.2. Duran's this year was 2.2. Huge difference.

 

Nevertheless, your point is valid. Sox need another good year from Duran before signing him longer term.