Red Sox: Off Season '23-'24

[Bellhorn04]

Trade Duran. To Miami for Braxton Garrett is still relatively close.

 

Sign Matt Chapman.

 

Sign a TBD RP.

 

C - Wong, McGuire

1b - Devers. Unless you agree with the moronic logic that his contract should keep him at 3b

2b - Urias. Upgrade is possible. He’s a meh defender

SS - Story. Probably the Sox best defensive SS since Alex Gonzalez

3b - Chapman. Would easily be the Sox best defensive 3b in the last half century

LF - Yoshida

CF - Rafaela

RF - Verdugo

DH - Casas

 

SP - Sale, Garrett, Bello, Crawford, Houck

RP - Jansen, Martin, Winckowski, Whitlock, Schreiber, Bernardino, Pivetta (also Sale’s injury replacement)

 

I see merit in your lineup and defense. I think your rotation needs work.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

How do you know what Bloom thinks? Are you a mind reader? Because you could be making much better use of that talent.

 

I'd hire him to read my wife's mind for me so I won't get yelled at as much.

[Hugh2]

I love Duvall, but we need better CF defense, and bringing back Adam means we have 4 guys who LF is their best position (other than maybe DH:) Yoshida, Duran, Refsnyder & Duvall.

 

Rafaeal is your CF

[moonslav59]

The 2023 Red Sox pitching leader in fWAR is 1.6 - ugly.

 

We have a ton of deficiencies to fix, folks. Bloom has the tallest of tall orders on his hands.

 

I totally agree on pitching being the major holes to fill (note the plural on "holes." It is a very tall task, at hand. Throwing big money at top FA pitchers has been a losing gamble more times than not, over recent years. Trading for younger pitchers is a better bet, but giving up prospects is not something the Sox have done since the 2018 trade deadline.

 

The two guys we have at 1.6 fWAR were somewhat unpredictable, last March: Sale and Crawford. They both rank 90th in MLB in fWAR. That is very sad and very telling. WAKE UP BLOOM & Co! If you divide 30 teams by the 90 best pitchers by WAR, the average team has 3 pitchers better than are top 2.

Bello ranks 96th at 1.5, so we had 3 decent third starter types, when healthy or not in the pen.

Paxton is at 1.4, about where he was over a month ago, and he's gone after 2023.

 

Not surprisingly our pen looks better:

T15 Jansen 1.3

T26 Martin 1.1

T84 Wink at 0.6

T97 Bernardino 0.5

 

Having 11 guys at 0.5 or better is not bad, but the lack of anyone over 1.6 is screaming for an addition.

1.0 Pivetta

0.8 Houck

0.5 Whitlock

0.3 Screiber (might have reached 0.5 has he not been hurt.)

 

[moonslav59]

I see merit in your lineup and defense. I think your rotation needs work.

 

Agreed: the TBD RP should be TBD top SP'er.

[Hugh2]

Rafaela in CF, and Story full time at SS definitely makes the D better, but no one knows if Raf can handle big league pitching yet, and at times Story for that matter. Adding top line pitching I don’t believe is in Bloom’s big bag of surprises.

 

I agree, which is exactly why I want an outfield addition in the offseason.

 

We also don't know if Bloom doesn't want to sign top-line pitching of Henry won't allow him. If you're dishing out hundreds of millions of dollars it's with ownership's approval.

 

We know the Sox will shift directions, we know they will blow past the cap and then look to reset and get under. We know this for three reasons. Knowing the structure of the CBA it makes sense, every other team not NYM are doing it, and more importantly, the Sox have done just this. If there was ever a time for Henry to say, or Bloom to say to Henry "now we need to go out and spend on pitching" THIS is that time. The cap is reset, the youth movement looks good, but it's mostly on offense, if you believe in that and believe you defense gets better next year then you exponentially get better with better pitching.

 

This is what I would do, and if Henry can channel a part of him that has existed more than once in the past, then he will tell Bloom to go out and do it.

 

I can't argue against those who are skeptical that they will do this, but I believe they should and I think doing so would be in line with their "plan"

[moonslav59]

Rafaeal is your CF

 

Agreed. I have him their, so why add a 4th LF'er in Duvall, who is not a good defensive CF'er.

[Hugh2]

I think having Abreu and Duran as players who can play CF, if Rafaela bombs, gives us the chance to give him a long look-see.

 

Not sure Abreu is better in CF than DUval, might be worse.

[moonslav59]

I agree, which is exactly why I want an outfield addition in the offseason.

 

We also don't know if Bloom doesn't want to sign top-line pitching of Henry won't allow him. If you're dishing out hundreds of millions of dollars it's with ownership's approval.

 

We know the Sox will shift directions, we know they will blow past the cap and then look to reset and get under. We know this for three reasons. Knowing the structure of the CBA it makes sense, every other team not NYM are doing it, and more importantly, the Sox have done just this. If there was ever a time for Henry to say, or Bloom to say to Henry "now we need to go out and spend on pitching" THIS is that time. The cap is reset, the youth movement looks good, but it's mostly on offense, if you believe in that and believe you defense gets better next year then you exponentially get better with better pitching.

 

This is what I would do, and if Henry can channel a part of him that has existed more than once in the past, then he will tell Bloom to go out and do it.

 

I can't argue against those who are skeptical that they will do this, but I believe they should and I think doing so would be in line with their "plan"

 

The few big FA SP'er signings that work, usually only work for the first 1-3 years, so in that sense, it was logical to wait to sign the big FA SP'er(s) until you think the rest of the team is ready and the "window" begins- NOW!

 

(I hope this is the case for 2024, but I have my doubts.)

[Hugh2]

Agreed. I have him their, so why add a 4th LF'er in Duvall, who is not a good defensive CF'er.

 

read my last post. Also, you need RH bats in this lineup. I want insurance in case Rafaela can't handle it, or Duran turns back into a pumpkin, or Abreu can't swing it, or Story gets hurt again. Duval makes sense if it's a reasonable contract.

[moonslav59]

Not sure Abreu is better in CF than DUval, might be worse.

 

Maybe, but we would not be signing Duvall based on him being slightly better than Abreu in CF on D.

[moonslav59]

read my last post. Also, you need RH bats in this lineup. I want insurance in case Rafaela can't handle it, or Duran turns back into a pumpkin, or Abreu can't swing it, or Story gets hurt again. Duval makes sense if it's a reasonable contract.

 

A competent fielding CF'er makes more sense.

 

One that can play CF/RF or CF/2B might be even better.

[Bellhorn04]

I agree, which is exactly why I want an outfield addition in the offseason.

 

We also don't know if Bloom doesn't want to sign top-line pitching of Henry won't allow him. If you're dishing out hundreds of millions of dollars it's with ownership's approval.

 

We know the Sox will shift directions, we know they will blow past the cap and then look to reset and get under. We know this for three reasons. Knowing the structure of the CBA it makes sense, every other team not NYM are doing it, and more importantly, the Sox have done just this. If there was ever a time for Henry to say, or Bloom to say to Henry "now we need to go out and spend on pitching" THIS is that time. The cap is reset, the youth movement looks good, but it's mostly on offense, if you believe in that and believe you defense gets better next year then you exponentially get better with better pitching.

 

This is what I would do, and if Henry can channel a part of him that has existed more than once in the past, then he will tell Bloom to go out and do it.

 

I can't argue against those who are skeptical that they will do this, but I believe they should and I think doing so would be in line with their "plan"

 

The thing is, we keep holding up David Price as the cautionary tale about signing FA pitchers and a big reason that Henry replaced DD with Bloom. The 2016 Red Sox needed top pitching just like the 2024 Red Sox do. So we're kind of in that same boat. And even though Price looked like a good bet, DD gets crucified for it.

 

Do we think Henry wants to lather, rinse and repeat?

[Old Red]

Maybe, but we would not be signing Duvall based on him being slightly better than Abreu in CF on D.

 

Nobody knows if Abreu can hit big league pitching either. A veteran RHB I think would be a big need. I keep saying to me either a JT, or Duvall signing would be a good idea.

[moonslav59]

The thing is, we keep holding up David Price as the cautionary tale about signing FA pitchers and a big reason that Henry replaced DD with Bloom. The 2016 Red Sox needed top pitching just like the 2024 Red Sox do. So we're kind of in that same boat. And even though Price looked like a good bet, DD gets crucified for it.

 

Do we think Henry wants to lather, rinse and repeat?

 

I think "crucify" is a bit over the top, and many who kept pointing out the drag his contract was on the Sox, even after he was traded, we okay with or supported the signing. (I thought it was necessary and that Price was about as sure a bet as you could ever hope for.)

 

I don't think JH goes $210M/7, anytime soon, but I think he might sign 2 guys to $100-120M deals. (Spread the risk.)

[Bellhorn04]

I think there's a good chance they go very hard after Yamamoto. That will be a bidding war, though.

[Old Red]

read my last post. Also, you need RH bats in this lineup. I want insurance in case Rafaela can't handle it, or Duran turns back into a pumpkin, or Abreu can't swing it, or Story gets hurt again. Duval makes sense if it's a reasonable contract.

Agree 100% on this. Duran’s luster had come off before he got hurt.

[Bellhorn04]

I don't think JH goes $210M/7, anytime soon, but I think he might sign 2 guys to $100-120M deals. (Spread the risk.)

 

That's what the Jays did with Gausman and Bassitt, and what I was hoping the Sox would do the last 2 years.

[moonslav59]

Nobody knows if Abreu can hit big league pitching either. A veteran RHB I think would be a big need. I keep saying to me either a JT, or Duvall signing would be a good idea.

 

I have agreed on adding another RH'd OF'er, but I'm not for him being a LF'er for precisely the reason of having doubts on Abreu (RF/CF) and Rafaela (CF).

 

We already have 3 OF'ers better suited for LF or DH: Yoshaid, Duran and Refsnyder.

 

I'm not sure about Abreu's CF D, but if he's as good as Duvall or better than Duran, and we keep Dugo, I'm okay with rolling the dice on one of Rafaela or Abreu doing well in CF. If they don't, we can settle on Duran in CF or trade for a CF'er, mid season.

[Bellhorn04]

Agree 100% on this. Duran’s luster had come off before he got hurt.

 

.828 OPS. Tough crowd!

[moonslav59]

That's what the Jays did with Gausman and Bassitt, and what I was hoping the Sox would do the last 2 years.

 

We came close with Wacha and Hill, but on a much smaller scale.

[Bellhorn04]

We came close with Wacha and Hill, but on a much smaller scale.

 

Mucho.

[moonslav59]

.828 OPS. Tough crowd!

 

Kinda like the guy who roasts Yoshida over his last month of play..

 

Duran in last 30 days of play (24 games)

 

.646 OPS

[Old Red]

.828 OPS. Tough crowd!

 

That was for the season? He had a heck of a start, but a not so great finish, and all I’m saying is not someone I would pencil in as a FT starter.

[Bellhorn04]

Kinda like the guy who roasts Yoshida over his last month of play..

 

Duran in last 30 days of play (24 games)

 

.646 OPS

 

Yes, I know I that had coming. But Yoshida makes considerably more money, is a lousy defender and is slow as molasses in January. I haven't just been criticizing the decline in his OPS.

[notin]

Kinda like the guy who roasts Yoshida over his last month of play..

 

Duran in last 30 days of play (24 games)

 

.646 OPS

 

Juan Soto only has a .713 OPS this month. Has his luster worn off too?

[moonslav59]

Yes, I know I that had coming. But Yoshida makes considerably more money, is a lousy defender and is slow as molasses in January. I haven't just been criticizing the decline in his OPS.

 

True, but Duran is not great on D, either.

[Dipre]

Juan Soto only has a .713 OPS this month. Has his luster worn off too?

 

DFA Soto!

[Randy Red Sox]

I am hoping we can get Yamamoto but agree there will be lots of teams after him. Will Henry actually open his wallet?? As for Nola I would not be going 5 years at big number which he is likely to get. The guy is 30 yrs old and a TJ candidate.

[Bellhorn04]

True, but Duran is not great on D, either.

 

Much cheaper

Much faster

 

2 out of 3 ain't bad.

 

fWAR is 3 times Yoshida's.