8/16 @ Nationals

[Old Red]

If the Red Sox just miss the postseason, the rotation and D will be remembered as the downfall.

 

Boston's refusal to add a starter when 60% of the rotation was on the IL led to too many bullpen games -- and too many appearances by in-season waiver wire DFAed relievers. And the club's early decision to rely on Kike at shortstop led to too many errors from the key defensive position on the diamond.

 

Despite all the other inconsistencies on this team, the Sox still remain only two games back in the loss column for the last wild card. Is it unreasonable to think they'd have two less losses if they had acquired one more legitimate -- even mediocre -- MLB starting pitcher and shortstop?

 

I think this sums it up pretty well. Using 2 openers against Toronto was just plain minor league, and small market stuff. Everyone knew the Red Sox had 3 pitchers coming back, but the problem was how many weeks did they go with out them. Another starter at the very least was needed weeks ago, and yet Bloom did nothing.

[Bellhorn04]

If the Red Sox just miss the postseason, the rotation and D will be remembered as the downfall.

 

Boston's refusal to add a starter when 60% of the rotation was on the IL led to too many bullpen games -- and too many appearances by in-season waiver wire DFAed relievers. And the club's early decision to rely on Kike at shortstop led to too many errors from the key defensive position on the diamond.

 

Despite all the other inconsistencies on this team, the Sox still remain only two games back in the loss column for the last wild card. Is it unreasonable to think they'd have two less losses if they had acquired one more legitimate -- even mediocre -- MLB starting pitcher and shortstop?

 

Yeah, if they just miss the playoffs there will definitely be some post mortems along those lines.

[moonslav59]

If the Red Sox just miss the postseason, the rotation and D will be remembered as the downfall.

 

Boston's refusal to add a starter when 60% of the rotation was on the IL led to too many bullpen games -- and too many appearances by in-season waiver wire DFAed relievers. And the club's early decision to rely on Kike at shortstop led to too many errors from the key defensive position on the diamond.

 

Despite all the other inconsistencies on this team, the Sox still remain only two games back in the loss column for the last wild card. Is it unreasonable to think they'd have two less losses if they had acquired one more legitimate -- even mediocre -- MLB starting pitcher and shortstop?

 

Of course, it is reasonable and even true, but it's also reasonable to think we'd have 3 or more wins had our bats hit like we thought they would.

 

Only the pen can say they were a big plus.

[moonslav59]

Yeah, if they just miss the playoffs there will definitely be some post mortems along those lines.

 

No particular order....

 

Rotation

Defense, especially up the middle

Base running

inconsistent hitting

Pen overuse and conversion of pen arms to the rotation

[moonslav59]

We've had a lot of things work out well, this year, but maybe just one of these changes might have handed us 3+ wins:

 

Devers hits 900+

 

Better SS Defense early on

 

Whitlock & Houck pitching like 2021 (or even 2022)

 

Less injuries

 

 

[notin]

I think this sums it up pretty well. Using 2 openers against Toronto was just plain minor league, and small market stuff. Everyone knew the Red Sox had 3 pitchers coming back, but the problem was how many weeks did they go with out them. Another starter at the very least was needed weeks ago, and yet Bloom did nothing.

 

I disliked the deadline apathy as much as anyone, but to cite using openers those two opener games against Toronto is a bit disingenuous. One of them was more of a gimmick opener followed by Pivetta, who is an MLB starting pitcher. If Pivetta came in one inning sooner (after Schreiber allowed no runs), would this complaint be left? And in the other the Sox only scored one run…

[notin]

We've had a lot of things work out well, this year, but maybe just one of these changes might have handed us 3+ wins:

 

Devers hits 900+

 

Better SS Defense early on

 

Whitlock & Houck pitching like 2021 (or even 2022)

 

Less injuries

 

 

 

I agree better SS defense in March was a big miss. Especially since they never really fixed it until Story returned…

[moonslav59]

I disliked the deadline apathy as much as anyone, but to cite using openers those two opener games against Toronto is a bit disingenuous. One of them was more of a gimmick opener followed by Pivetta, who is an MLB starting pitcher. If Pivetta came in one inning sooner (after Schreiber allowed no runs), would this complaint be left? And in the other the Sox only scored one run…

 

It might have been 3 games, had we traded before the deadline, like several other teams did, but good point.

[mvp 78]

I agree better SS defense in March was a big miss. Especially since they never really fixed it until Story returned…

 

I don't think you always have to make your trades and big moves at the deadline. Waiting until then was a mistake. The Sox needed a starter much earlier in the year and the SS situation was always a big question mark.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

No particular order....

 

Rotation

Defense, especially up the middle

Base running

inconsistent hitting

Pen overuse and conversion of pen arms to the rotation

 

As always with this team, issues with the rotation, and subsequent pen overuse, are inextricably connected.

 

But I don't what the hell is wrong with Red Sox baserunning these days...

 

Can't blame it all on coaches (who are forbidden to grab or trip baserunners to impede idiocy)... doesn't the front office screen players for basic baseball acumen before acquiring them?

[moonslav59]

I don't think you always have to make your trades and big moves at the deadline. Waiting until then was a mistake. The Sox needed a starter much earlier in the year and the SS situation was always a big question mark.

 

If you look at most of the talk about the Sox in February, Mrach and April, it was about the rotation and defense, particularly at SS.

 

It wasn't rocket science.

[Old Red]

I disliked the deadline apathy as much as anyone, but to cite using openers those two opener games against Toronto is a bit disingenuous. One of them was more of a gimmick opener followed by Pivetta, who is an MLB starting pitcher. If Pivetta came in one inning sooner (after Schreiber allowed no runs), would this complaint be left? And in the other the Sox only scored one run…

 

Here is the thing though, and probably what the Red Sox players, and coaches see. Toronto lost their closer for a few weeks, so what did they do go out, and get another one. Now their closer is back, and the closer they went out, and got is the setup man. Toronto lost their SS, so what did they do went out, and got a regular SS, and now for those two moves they are a better team for it. Compare that to what the Red Sox did when their SS went down before the season even started, and they lost 3 SP.

[moonslav59]

Here is the thing though, and probably what the Red Sox players, and coaches see. Toronto lost their closer for a few weeks, so what did they do go out, and get another one. Now their closer is back, and the closer they went out, and got is the setup man. Toronto lost their SS, so what did they do went out, and got a regular SS, and now for those two moves they are a better team for it. Compare that to what the Red Sox did when their SS went down before the season even started, and they lost 3 SP.

 

...and we had some budget space to get a couple additions.

[Bellhorn04]

As always with this team, issues with the rotation, and subsequent pen overuse, are inextricably connected.

 

But I don't what the hell is wrong with Red Sox baserunning these days...

 

Can't blame it all on coaches (who are forbidden to grab or trip baserunners to impede idiocy)... doesn't the front office screen players for basic baseball acumen before acquiring them?

 

I think Reese McGuire may have some acumen/concentration issues, which may explain why he's been moved a lot for a guy who seems to have baseball skills.

[Bellhorn04]

Here is the thing though, and probably what the Red Sox players, and coaches see. Toronto lost their closer for a few weeks, so what did they do go out, and get another one. Now their closer is back, and the closer they went out, and got is the setup man. Toronto lost their SS, so what did they do went out, and got a regular SS, and now for those two moves they are a better team for it. Compare that to what the Red Sox did when their SS went down before the season even started, and they lost 3 SP.

 

From last offseason on, the Sox have acted like they sort of wouldn't mind making the playoffs this year, but it's not really a high priority. The front office is probably pretty happy the team has hung in there this long.

[moonslav59]

From last offseason on, the Sox have acted like they sort of wouldn't mind making the playoffs this year, but it's not really a high priority. The front office is probably pretty happy the team has hung in there this long.

 

They spent a lot, last winter. I don't get why a few more millions for another SP'er of a SS who could play D would have been so hard.

[Bellhorn04]

They spent a lot, last winter. I don't get why a few more millions for another SP'er of a SS who could play D would have been so hard.

 

Yeah, it's like putting in on a lot of work on a jigsaw puzzle, and then walking away with the last couple of pieces missing.

[illinoisredsox]

From last offseason on, the Sox have acted like they sort of wouldn't mind making the playoffs this year, but it's not really a high priority. The front office is probably pretty happy the team has hung in there this long.

 

Sounds a bit like the old Connie Mack theory of club ownership.

 

When Mack owned and managed the Philadelphia Athletics, his ideal season was to finish a very close second, thereby maximizing revenue by keeping attendance up but then getting to say I don’t have to give you guys a raise, you didn’t win. As manager, Mack was in a position to influence game outcomes if need be.

 

Not exactly the same, but close.

Edited August 17, 2023 by illinoisredsox

[illinoisredsox]

Yeah, it's like putting in on a lot of work on a jigsaw puzzle, and then walking away with the last couple of pieces missing.

 

Had one like that last winter. Completed a brand new 1000 piece puzzle but one piece wasn’t in the box. There were 1000 pieces in the box though; there was a duplicate of one.

[moonslav59]

Yeah, it's like putting in on a lot of work on a jigsaw puzzle, and then walking away with the last couple of pieces missing.

 

I find it hard to fathom why they'd do so much to make us be or appear to be competitive, but then try to save $5-9M, or whatever the number is.

[moonslav59]

Had one like that last winter. Completed a brand new 1000 piece puzzle but one piece wasn’t in the box. There were 1000 pieces in the box though; there was a duplicate of one.

 

Never seen that.

[mvp 78]

Yeah, it's like putting in on a lot of work on a jigsaw puzzle, and then walking away with the last couple of pieces missing.

 

Happens at the old folx home down the street every time. The kids blame me for the missing pieces, but I would never...

[Bellhorn04]

I find it hard to fathom why they'd do so much to make us be or appear to be competitive, but then try to save $5-9M, or whatever the number is.

 

Maybe they have a different number than what Cot's is showing. I have no idea.

 

There were some rumors, apparently, that ownership was disappointed by the deadline inactivity.

[vegasbob]

Maybe they have a different number than what Cot's is showing. I have no idea.

 

There were some rumors, apparently, that ownership was disappointed by the deadline inactivity.

 

Does the FO and Ownership not talk or at least text ?

 

JH: " Chaim, do something, ratings on NESN are down "

 

Chaim: "What, boss?"

 

JH: " Whatever it is you do to win a few"

 

Chaim: " The kids in Worcester are getting better, JH, just wait. You'll see results in 2025."

 

JH: Chaim, "I may be dead in 2025 ! "

[moonslav59]

Maybe they have a different number than what Cot's is showing. I have no idea.

 

There were some rumors, apparently, that ownership was disappointed by the deadline inactivity.

 

It looks like they made a mistake, last year, so maybe they are leaving nothing to chance.

 

What do other sites say we "left on the table?"

[Bellhorn04]

It looks like they made a mistake, last year, so maybe they are leaving nothing to chance.

 

What do other sites say we "left on the table?"

 

Spotrac shows over $17 mill on the table, but I don't really trust their numbers.

 

https://www.spotrac.com/mlb/boston-red-sox//payroll

[notin]

Had one like that last winter. Completed a brand new 1000 piece puzzle but one piece wasn’t in the box. There were 1000 pieces in the box though; there was a duplicate of one.

 

You need to find the other guy who had the same problem…

[Maxbialystock]

Sounds a bit like the old Connie Mack theory of club ownership.

 

When Mack owned and managed the Philadelphia Athletics, his ideal season was to finish a very close second, thereby maximizing revenue by keeping attendance up but then getting to say I don’t have to give you guys a raise, you didn’t win. As manager, Mack was in a position to influence game outcomes if need be.

 

Not exactly the same, but close.

 

You could have a point. In the movie Moneyball, the John Henry actor tries to hire Billy Beane and seems committed to Sabermetrics and, like the A's, getting more wins for fewer bucks in player salaries. But in fact the real John Henry was not reluctant to spend big bucks for talent, especially pitchers because then, as always, the Sox system was lousy at finding and developing pitchers.

 

David Dombrowski was the culmination of all that because he arrived after the 2015 season, inherited some talented guys, and opened the salary floodgates to fix the pitching with the likes of David Price, Chris Sale, Nathan Eovaldi, and closer Kimbrel--to say nothing of bringing in a good DH, JD Martinez, to replace David Ortiz.

 

The result was the incredible 2018 Sox, who had the best Sox season ever and one of the best MLB team seasons ever with 108 regular season wins and an 11-3 postseason record. However, the Sox collapsed the very next season, 2019, which apparently soured John Henry on spending large. So he dumped DD and brought in Chaim Bloom, who came out of the Tampa Rays system, which was and is one of the best systems in MLB for finding and developing talent without paying big bucks for it.

 

So we are clearly in a sea change. This year the Sox collective salaries are ranked 15th, the lowest ranking in the John Henry era and probably in the last 40 or 50 years of the Sox. That said, however, Devers did sign a $300M or so contract last year, and Story's is $140M for 6 years.

 

Thus does Sox attendance continue to struggle to recover from the covid 2020 season.

 

In 2012, for example, the Sox went 69-93--a horrible record--and averaged 37,563 butts in seats per game. Right now the Sox are 6 games above .500 (63-57) with a real shot at a wild card, and the average attendance is 32,900.

[moonslav59]

You could have a point. In the movie Moneyball, the John Henry actor tries to hire Billy Beane and seems committed to Sabermetrics and, like the A's, getting more wins for fewer bucks in player salaries. But in fact the real John Henry was not reluctant to spend big bucks for talent, especially pitchers because then, as always, the Sox system was lousy at finding and developing pitchers.

 

David Dombrowski was the culmination of all that because he arrived after the 2015 season, inherited some talented guys, and opened the salary floodgates to fix the pitching with the likes of David Price, Chris Sale, Nathan Eovaldi, and closer Kimbrel--to say nothing of bringing in a good DH, JD Martinez, to replace David Ortiz.

 

The result was the incredible 2018 Sox, who had the best Sox season ever and one of the best MLB team seasons ever with 108 regular season wins and an 11-3 postseason record. However, the Sox collapsed the very next season, 2019, which apparently soured John Henry on spending large. So he dumped DD and brought in Chaim Bloom, who came out of the Tampa Rays system, which was and is one of the best systems in MLB for finding and developing talent without paying big bucks for it.

 

So we are clearly in a sea change. This year the Sox collective salaries are ranked 15th, the lowest ranking in the John Henry era and probably in the last 40 or 50 years of the Sox. That said, however, Devers did sign a $300M or so contract last year, and Story's is $140M for 6 years.

 

Thus does Sox attendance continue to struggle to recover from the covid 2020 season.

 

In 2012, for example, the Sox went 69-93--a horrible record--and averaged 37,563 butts in seats per game. Right now the Sox are 6 games above .500 (63-57) with a real shot at a wild card, and the average attendance is 32,900.

 

Nice summary. To add to this, here are our longer term commitments:

 

$313/10 Devers (ends '33)

$145/5 Sale (ends in '24 w option '25- the last big DD contract)

$140M/6 Story ('27 w option '28)

$90M/5 Yoshida ('12)

$19M/4 Whitlock ('26)

 

Expiring contracts after 2024:

$16M Jansen

$8.8 Martin

Option Joely

Last arbs in 2024:

Dugo

Pivetta

 

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

Yeah, it's like putting in on a lot of work on a jigsaw puzzle, and then walking away with the last couple of pieces missing.

 

... and not even bother to look for them under the table or in between cushions.