Red Sox Starting Rotation 2023

[Duran Is The Man]

Paxton as a 4/5.

 

Crawford as a 4/5.

 

That's why we need a solid 2 & 3. (I'd prefer an ace and a #2, or 2 solid #2's to go with Bello, who I see as a solid number 2.)

 

is Paxton signed for next year? or does he have some kind of opt out?

[Old Red]

Paxton as a 4/5.

 

Crawford as a 4/5.

 

That's why we need a solid 2 & 3. (I'd prefer an ace and a #2, or 2 solid #2's to go with Bello, who I see as a solid number 2.)

Pivetta as a 4/5? How the likes of Paxton, and Kut Man do the last two months may help decide on them.Bloom hasn’t put much money into the rotation yet, so I’ll believe it when I see it.

[moonslav59]

is Paxton signed for next year? or does he have some kind of opt out?

 

I meant Pivetta, and just edited that post. Sorry.

[moonslav59]

sorry...i didn't mean to sound if i was pointing you out as one of "Bloom's defenders". i've always considered your analysis -on anything- as very fair-minded. a bit overly-optimistic at times but very fair.

 

Fair enough, but I sometimes feel some view me as the leader of the Bloom Apologist Club.

[moonslav59]

Pivetta as a 4/5? How the likes of Paxton, and Kut Man do the last two months may help decide on them.Bloom hasn’t put much money into the rotation yet, so I’ll believe it when I see it.

 

We may need 3 SP'ers, if we decide to keep Whitlock, Houck & Crawford in the pen.

[Randy Red Sox]

it is going to be tough for even Bloom to find 3 SP on the cheap

We may need 3 SP'ers, if we decide to keep Whitlock, Houck & Crawford in the pen.

[moonslav59]

it is going to be tough for even Bloom to find 3 SP on the cheap

 

No GM would find that task easy.

 

My guess is, we keep Houck and Crawford as SP'ers and sign one.

 

Our best hope might be to sign 2.

 

As of now, I hope it's Urias and Y.Y.

 

[mvp 78]

Would it really have been all that bad to trade Paulino and Drohan for a decent SP'er?

 

If we ended up with 6-7 decent SP'ers, after everyone returns, the pen would be greatly improved by moving Houck, Whitlock or someone else to the pen.

 

The pen needs some innings eaters and has been taxed a lot, recently.

 

Our Staff would be better adding starters to the pen and not keeping guys like Llovera, Barraclough and Jacques there.

 

Also, thinking we will finish the year with no pitchers going on the IL, means you should be okay with one of those scubs coming back up.

 

What trade value does Paulino have???

 

732 OPS (464 vs LHP)

 

Who wants a platoon SS that's still in High A? There's just nothing there that's going to bring back a starting pitcher.

[moonslav59]

What trade value does Paulino have???

 

732 OPS (464 vs LHP)

 

Who wants a platoon SS that's still in High A? There's just nothing there that's going to bring back a starting pitcher.

 

Ok, sub in Jordan, EValdez, Walter or some other non top prospect.

[mvp 78]

Wrong.

 

If we end this year, poorly, I will hold it against Bloom, like I promised I would.

 

The only way I'll defend Bloom in 2024 is if JH tightens the budget.

 

I promise.

 

(Note: I will continue providing context to any points being overly critical or overly generous towards some aspect of Bloom's choices, but he will have an overall grade at C or below, from me.)

 

It's quite the out you've provided him since you've basically used that as a talking point ever since Bloom came aboard anyway.

[mvp 78]

Ok, sub in Jordan, EValdez, Walter or some other non top prospect.

 

I get the idea that posters have, but people throw out ridiculous trades on here. Paulino's ranked 24th now. He's not good right now. With all the tools we have as Red Sox fans (SoxProspects, BTV), at least take the time and come up with a trade that makes sense.

[moonslav59]

It's quite the out you've provided him since you've basically used that as a talking point ever since Bloom came aboard anyway.

 

Tighten, not keep the same. There is no reason to think our budget won't be the same or larger as the tax line increases, next year.

 

I doubt it will be "an out."

 

BTW, I did not use it last winter, and went out of my way to say his spending budget made last winter his "defining moment," "legacy year," and "make or break winter." I still believe that, but I do not think JH is making this year a "show major progress or be fired" season.

 

My position has been clear and consistent.

 

[moonslav59]

I get the idea that posters have, but people throw out ridiculous trades on here. Paulino's ranked 24th now. He's not good right now. With all the tools we have as Red Sox fans (SoxProspects, BTV), at least take the time and come up with a trade that makes sense.

 

I suggested several trades that BTV accepted, many had poor grades indicated by Sox fans that show I was perhaps offering too much.

 

Most of the BTV trades I suggest have us giving greater BTV value in return.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

Tighten, not keep the same. There is no reason to think our budget won't be the same or larger as the tax line increases, next year.

 

 

 

Larger? If we're talking starting pitching -- and that's something we've all agreed has been neglected as far as the top of the rotation the past four years -- then how does anyone know for sure this trend will change?

 

We all want it to, but that's all we got. That, and Henry's past: "Do not invest in any starter over 30, wait- except Price, oh, and Sale- uhhhhhhggggg...."

[notin]

We may need 3 SP'ers, if we decide to keep Whitlock, Houck & Crawford in the pen.

 

I don’t think either Houck or Crawford will be in the pen next year. Especially not Houck.

 

The criticisms against Houck are outdated. His struggles against the lineup third time through are mitigated by todays roster construction that allows for 8 man bullpens. And his lack of a third pitch isn’t the issue it used to be, as there are a few successful two pitch starters out there today, notably Chicago Cubs’ LHSP Justin Steele, who throws fastballs or slider roughly 95% of the time…

[moonslav59]

Larger? If we're talking starting pitching -- and that's something we've all agreed has been neglected as far as the top of the rotation the past four years -- then how does anyone know for sure this trend will change?

 

We all want it to, but that's all we got. That, and Henry's past: "Do not invest in any starter over 30, wait- except Price, oh, and Sale- uhhhhhhggggg...."

 

We don't know, if it will change, but I do think the budget will grow, next year, and not the pen seems all set, and the everyday player slots seem filled, as well as having some depth, so what is left to spend on?

 

C: Wong, McGuire and a solid farm of catchers (Scott, Teel, Hickey, Brannon, RHern...)

1B: Casas (Dalbec, Jordan...)

2B: urias, Reyes (EValdez, Yorke...)

SS: Story, Reyes (Mayer, DHam...)

3B: Devers Reyes (Meidroth, Bonaci...)

LF: Duran, Yoshida, Refsnyder (Rosier...)

CF: Rafaela, Duran

RF: Dugo, Abreu

DH: Yoshida, Refsnyder (Dalbec, Meidroth, Kavadas...)

 

I'd be fine without adding a single everyday player or pen arm. I know losing Turner and Duvall will probably mean we add one piece, but we don't HAVE to do it.

 

This is not to say I think JH and Bloom will spend mostly on the rotation. I never know what they will do.

 

[moonslav59]

I don’t think either Houck or Crawford will be in the pen next year. Especially not Houck.

 

The criticisms against Houck are outdated. His struggles against the lineup third time through are mitigated by todays roster construction that allows for 8 man bullpens. And his lack of a third pitch isn’t the issue it used to be, as there are a few successful two pitch starters out there today, notably Chicago Cubs’ LHSP Justin Steele, who throws fastballs or slider roughly 95% of the time…

 

I have said I think they will have Houck in the rotation, next year. I'm hoping they add two solid SP'ers, but I could certainly see them using Crawford as a SP'er.

 

Even without Houck in the pen, the pen looks solid (assuming a rotation of Sale, Bello, ____, Pivetta and Houck):

 

Jansen, Martin, Winckowski, Schreiber, Bernardino/Joely(?) (Kelly, Robertson, Jacques, Guerrero, Politi, Fernandez, Denlinger)

Whitlock, Crawford (SP?), Murphy (Walter, Mata, Drohan, Liu, Nav Belle, Wikelman, Gambrell, Bastardo)

[mvp 78]

I don’t think either Houck or Crawford will be in the pen next year. Especially not Houck.

 

The criticisms against Houck are outdated. His struggles against the lineup third time through are mitigated by todays roster construction that allows for 8 man bullpens. And his lack of a third pitch isn’t the issue it used to be, as there are a few successful two pitch starters out there today, notably Chicago Cubs’ LHSP Justin Steele, who throws fastballs or slider roughly 95% of the time…

 

I'm not sure both of them can be in the rotation though. Houck has the higher ceiling as a starter than Crawford IMO.

 

I'd go with:

 

Yamamoto

Bello

FA/Trade

Sale

Houck

pen: Crawford, Pivetta, Bernardino, Schreiber, Winckowski, Whitlock, Martin, Jansen

 

They've loaded up on bulk guys (Houck, Crawford, Pivetta, Murphy, Winckowski, Whitlock) and I don't think it necessarily works for stabilizing the roster. Winckowski has been better now that they are pushing him towards a more pure relief profile. I'd like to see that for Whitlock as well. They should probably consider trading one or two of the bulk guys and adding in pure relief type arms or shoring up the rotation.

[moonslav59]

I'm not sure both of them can be in the rotation though. Houck has the higher ceiling as a starter than Crawford IMO.

 

I'd go with:

 

Yamamoto

Bello

FA/Trade

Sale

Houck

pen: Crawford, Pivetta, Bernardino, Schreiber, Winckowski, Whitlock, Martin, Jansen

 

They've loaded up on bulk guys (Houck, Crawford, Pivetta, Murphy, Winckowski, Whitlock) and I don't think it necessarily works for stabilizing the roster. Winckowski has been better now that they are pushing him towards a more pure relief profile. I'd like to see that for Whitlock as well. They should probably consider trading one or two of the bulk guys and adding in pure relief type arms or shoring up the rotation.

 

I still like Pivetta as the 5th starter, but he usually starts out slowly. but not 2021

 

2022

7.84 first 5 starts

4.13 last 28

 

2023

6.30 first 8 starts

3.65 last 2 stars (2.67 after first 8 starts- mostly in long relief)

 

That being said, I'm fine with pivetta in the pen, if we add two solid SP'er.

 

[mvp 78]

I still like Pivetta as the 5th starter, but he usually starts out slowly. but not 2021

 

2022

7.84 first 5 starts

4.13 last 28

 

2023

6.30 first 8 starts

3.65 last 2 stars (2.67 after first 8 starts- mostly in long relief)

 

That being said, I'm fine with pivetta in the pen, if we add two solid SP'er.

 

 

That's fine. You and I both know the FO isn't getting 2 starting pitchers OR Yamamoto anyway.

[Bellhorn04]

That's fine. You and I both know the FO isn't getting 2 starting pitchers OR Yamamoto anyway.

 

To me Yamamoto seems like a guy Henry and Bloom would be very interested in.

[Hugh2]

To me Yamamoto seems like a guy Henry and Bloom would be very interested in.

 

They've been heavily scouting him as well. Next year is also the perfect time both from a team building, salary position, and FA availability point of view to go big on pitching.

 

It's why I'm betting on it.

[Dipre]

To me Yamamoto seems like a guy Henry and Bloom would be very interested in.

 

He'll be Boston-bound. You can bet the farm on that.

[moonslav59]

That's fine. You and I both know the FO isn't getting 2 starting pitchers OR Yamamoto anyway.

 

We don't know jack about their plans.

[moonslav59]

To me Yamamoto seems like a guy Henry and Bloom would be very interested in.

 

I'd love to see it happen, or Urias.

 

Maybe I'm dreaming to hope for both.

[mvp 78]

To me Yamamoto seems like a guy Henry and Bloom would be very interested in.

 

And a whole bunch of other teams.

[Maxbialystock]

Once more I have to day that no one reading this thread can think you guys have any hopes whatsoever for 2023. And I find that astounding because right now I think the Sox pitching looks better than 2021 and as good as 2019. As moonslav has pointed out, with the return of Sale, Whitlock, and Houck (now delayed until 21 August so he can start), Cora has good starters, long relievers, and short relievers.

 

Of course there are concerns--Bello's possible fatigue, Sale's history of injuries, etc--but at least a whole bunch of these guys are present for duty.

 

And, if the Story and Duvall of yesterday's game--combined with the Turner we've seen all season and the possibility that Reyes can hit (but I now have my doubts about Refsnyder)--the Sox just might have some good righty bats to go with all those lefty (Casas, Devers, Yoshida, Duran, Dugo) bats.

 

Seriously, if I'm anywhere near right, shouldn't we pay just a little bit of attention to this year's team?

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

 

Seriously, if I'm anywhere near right, shouldn't we pay just a little bit of attention to this year's team?

 

We are -- but it's also reasonable for fans to temper expectations in a summer clinging to the preseason motto of If Everything Breaks Just Right...

[mvp 78]

Seriously, if I'm anywhere near right, shouldn't we pay just a little bit of attention to this year's team?

 

2023 Red Sox:

19th Batting fWAR

30th Defense OAA (most errors in MLB)

25th Starting Pitching fWAR

10th Reliever fWAR

 

Aside from 3 series, the rest of the schedule is a gauntlet of teams above .500.

[mvp 78]

We are -- but it's also reasonable for fans to temper expectations in a summer clinging to the preseason motto of If Everything Breaks Just Right...

 

Yeah, it's why the Sox only have 16% chance to get into the playoffs. It's because it's unlikely for everything to break just right.