Red Sox Starting Rotation 2023

[moonslav59]

Maybe it's time to give up something of value for young team controlle d starting pitcher.

 

I'm torn on this.

 

I want an ace, like SEA got with Castillo, last summer, but trading away Mayer and Rafaela of Mayer and Drohan might be over the top, for me. (emphasis on "might.")

 

I mentioned possibly trading Casas and Rafaela, last summer/winter and nearly got my head taken off.

 

You gotta give talent to get talent, and buying it is a long shot dice roll.

[Nick]

It seems easier to fill position players on short term deals.

 

Starting pitching should be developed with young arms

[moonslav59]

It seems easier to fill position players on short term deals.

 

Starting pitching should be developed with young arms

 

We all agree, but when id doesn't happen, what is left?

 

Also, if a team almost always drafts non pitchers high, every year, shouldn't the expectation be some should and will be used to trade for pitching- hopefully surer bets than pitching draftees? That has kinda been our MO a year or two before every ring we've won in my lifetime. (Not that that has to be the only way.)

 

I will say, I think we are headed in the right direction, although I'm not thrilled by many pitchers in the minors beyond maybe Drohan, E R-C and Perales.

 

We've built up a pretty nice foundation of pitchers 29 and under 2ith 2+ years of team control. Other teams have better, but this is the best we've had in a while:

 

Bello Pre arb

Whitlock 3+

Houck Pre arb

Crawford Pre arb

Winckowski Pre arb

Schreiber 3 arbs after '23

 

Farm: (SP's ranking and ETA)

5. Drohan mid '24

8. Perales mid '26

9. Mata late '23

12. Wikelman mid '25

15. E R-C mid '26

20. Murphy mid '24 is NOW

25. Guerrero late '26

27. Fernandez mid '24

30. Rogers 2026

 

I'm not sure we've seen this moderate promise since the Lester years.

 

 

 

[Maxbialystock]

We all agree, but when id doesn't happen, what is left?

 

Also, if a team almost always drafts non pitchers high, every year, shouldn't the expectation be some should and will be used to trade for pitching- hopefully surer bets than pitching draftees? That has kinda been our MO a year or two before every ring we've won in my lifetime. (Not that that has to be the only way.)

 

I will say, I think we are headed in the right direction, although I'm not thrilled by many pitchers in the minors beyond maybe Drohan, E R-C and Perales.

 

We've built up a pretty nice foundation of pitchers 29 and under 2ith 2+ years of team control. Other teams have better, but this is the best we've had in a while:

 

Bello Pre arb

Whitlock 3+

Houck Pre arb

Crawford Pre arb

Winckowski Pre arb

Schreiber 3 arbs after '23

 

Farm: (SP's ranking and ETA)

5. Drohan mid '24

8. Perales mid '26

9. Mata late '23

12. Wikelman mid '25

15. E R-C mid '26

20. Murphy mid '24 is NOW

25. Guerrero late '26

27. Fernandez mid '24

30. Rogers 2026

 

I'm not sure we've seen this moderate promise since the Lester years.

 

 

 

 

Excellent laydown.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

We all agree, but when id doesn't happen, what is left?

 

Also, if a team almost always drafts non pitchers high, every year, shouldn't the expectation be some should and will be used to trade for pitching- hopefully surer bets than pitching draftees? That has kinda been our MO a year or two before every ring we've won in my lifetime. (Not that that has to be the only way.)

 

I will say, I think we are headed in the right direction, although I'm not thrilled by many pitchers in the minors beyond maybe Drohan, E R-C and Perales.

 

We've built up a pretty nice foundation of pitchers 29 and under 2ith 2+ years of team control. Other teams have better, but this is the best we've had in a while:

 

Bello Pre arb

Whitlock 3+

Houck Pre arb

Crawford Pre arb

Winckowski Pre arb

Schreiber 3 arbs after '23

 

Farm: (SP's ranking and ETA)

5. Drohan mid '24

8. Perales mid '26

9. Mata late '23

12. Wikelman mid '25

15. E R-C mid '26

20. Murphy mid '24 is NOW

25. Guerrero late '26

27. Fernandez mid '24

30. Rogers 2026

 

I'm not sure we've seen this moderate promise since the Lester years.

 

 

 

 

When revisiting trades for previous ace pitchers that won rings in Boston -- Pedro, Schilling, Beckett, Sale -- it's worth considering that in every deal, at least one of the Sox' then-best pitching prospects were included...

[moonslav59]

When revisiting trades for previous ace pitchers that won rings in Boston -- Pedro, Schilling, Beckett, Sale -- it's worth considering that in every deal, at least one of the Sox' then-best pitching prospects were included...

 

Yes, and some went on to pretty good careers:

 

Tony Armas Jr. & Carl Pavano (Pedro)

Fossas (career 111 ERA+) & Jorge de la Rosa (career 100 ERA+) (Schilling)

Anibal Sanchez (Beckett)

Kopech (Sale)

 

Who do we give up for the next one?

 

Hopefully not Bello.

 

Drohan and Mata? Drohan, Rafaela, E R-C and Romero?

 

[Dipre]

Mata is a guy I'd rather the Sox keep around, and see if they can help him harness his stuff.

[mvp 78]

Mata is a guy I'd rather the Sox keep around, and see if they can help him harness his stuff.

 

I just traded him to PHI for Starlyn Caba (works per BTV).

[mvp 78]

Yes, and some went on to pretty good careers:

 

Tony Armas Jr. & Carl Pavano (Pedro)

Fossas (career 111 ERA+) & Jorge de la Rosa (career 100 ERA+) (Schilling)

Anibal Sanchez (Beckett)

Kopech (Sale)

 

Who do we give up for the next one?

 

Hopefully not Bello.

 

Drohan and Mata? Drohan, Rafaela, E R-C and Romero?

 

 

Not sure where you're getting the career ERA+ for Fossum. Per bref, it's 83.

[Bellhorn04]

Yes, and some went on to pretty good careers:

 

Tony Armas Jr. & Carl Pavano (Pedro)

Fossas (career 111 ERA+) & Jorge de la Rosa (career 100 ERA+) (Schilling)

Anibal Sanchez (Beckett)

Kopech (Sale)

 

Who do we give up for the next one?

 

Hopefully not Bello.

 

Drohan and Mata? Drohan, Rafaela, E R-C and Romero?

 

 

Bello HellNo. He's the guy you trade for, not the guy you trade.

[moonslav59]

Not sure where you're getting the career ERA+ for Fossum. Per bref, it's 83.

 

My bad. I clicked on Tony Fossas.

 

LOL

[moonslav59]

Mata is a guy I'd rather the Sox keep around, and see if they can help him harness his stuff.

 

If you had to trade prospects for an ace or a pitcher who might become an ace, which ones to you trade?

 

BTV Values: you likely need to come up with 80-100+ to get an ace:

65 Mayer

34 Bello

30 Duran

30 Bleis

28 Casas

25 Rafaela

24 Houck

23 Whitlock

22 Verdugo & Yoshida

19 Yorke

11 Anthony

9 Romero

8 Wink

7 Wong & Alcantara

5 Bonaci, Meidroth, Paulino, Paxton & Walter

4 Bastardo, Jordan, Hickey, Drohan, Mata, Valdez

3 Refsnyder, Blayock, E R-C, Murphy, Abreu

 

You can't trade 10 guys from the 3-5 group to get to a $40M value, either.

 

 

 

[Dipre]

If you had to trade prospects for an ace or a pitcher who might become an ace, which ones to you trade?

 

BTV Values: you likely need to come up with 80-100+ to get an ace:

65 Mayer

34 Bello

30 Duran

30 Bleis

28 Casas

25 Rafaela

24 Houck

23 Whitlock

22 Verdugo & Yoshida

19 Yorke

11 Anthony

9 Romero

8 Wink

7 Wong & Alcantara

5 Bonaci, Meidroth, Paulino, Paxton & Walter

4 Bastardo, Jordan, Hickey, Drohan, Mata, Valdez

3 Refsnyder, Blayock, E R-C, Murphy, Abreu

 

You can't trade 10 guys from the 3-5 group to get to a $40M value, either.

 

 

 

 

I honestly don't take the chance with this group.

[moonslav59]

I honestly don't take the chance with this group.

 

If you HAD to...

 

I might decide to keep one from Duran or Rafaela (25-30), Yorke + Anthony (30) plus Bonaci + Walter (10) and hope 65-70 gets us an ace.

 

Like I said, I'm torn. I love the idea of building up the farm, and letting it mature, then, when you have a logjam, you make a trade. We are not there, yet.

[mvp 78]

With Mata, it's hard to keep him around since he has to be on the MLB roster starting 4/1/24. No more options! I'd just deal him away.

[notin]

If you had to trade prospects for an ace or a pitcher who might become an ace, which ones to you trade?

 

BTV Values: you likely need to come up with 80-100+ to get an ace:

65 Mayer

34 Bello

30 Duran

30 Bleis

28 Casas

25 Rafaela

24 Houck

23 Whitlock

22 Verdugo & Yoshida

19 Yorke

11 Anthony

9 Romero

8 Wink

7 Wong & Alcantara

5 Bonaci, Meidroth, Paulino, Paxton & Walter

4 Bastardo, Jordan, Hickey, Drohan, Mata, Valdez

3 Refsnyder, Blayock, E R-C, Murphy, Abreu

 

You can't trade 10 guys from the 3-5 group to get to a $40M value, either.

 

 

 

 

 

Start with Ceddane Rafaela, since Duran looks like he might actually be a worthwhile option in CF…

[mvp 78]

Start with Ceddane Rafaela, since Duran looks like he might actually be a worthwhile option in CF…

 

Wow, dump a guy right when he starts to get hot again...

 

Rafaela in June: 1002 OPS

[Hugh2]

Wow, dump a guy right when he starts to get hot again...

 

Rafaela in June: 1002 OPS

 

Plus we still don’t truly know what Duran is. Sure, his stock is up, and looks like a much better big leaguer than he did last year.

 

But more important is the fact that there’s three outfield positions. Yoshida might really only be a DH in a few years and Verdugo is a free agent after next year. I’m not looking to trade my outfield depth right now.

 

I’d be more open to it if it was for an Ace with good FA options. But the outfield market year in and year out is very very thin. Who can we sign next year? Teoscar Hernandez? Michael Conforto?

 

I actually wouldn’t mind Teoscar on this team, but I love the ideal of a GG defender in CF more.

[notin]

Wow, dump a guy right when he starts to get hot again...

 

Rafaela in June: 1002 OPS

 

Dumping? It was a suggestion to trade for an ace. What you call “dumping” I call “selling high and from depth”…

[notin]

Plus we still don’t truly know what Duran is. Sure, his stock is up, and looks like a much better big leaguer than he did last year.

 

But more important is the fact that there’s three outfield positions. Yoshida might really only be a DH in a few years and Verdugo is a free agent after next year. I’m not looking to trade my outfield depth right now.

 

I’d be more open to it if it was for an Ace with good FA options. But the outfield market year in and year out is very very thin. Who can we sign next year? Teoscar Hernandez? Michael Conforto?

 

I actually wouldn’t mind Teoscar on this team, but I love the ideal of a GG defender in CF more.

 

We know more about what Duran is than what Rafaela is. And the question involved trading for an ace (whatever that is). You’re not going to get one for Bryan Mata and Brainer Bonaci.

 

And why are the Sox looking at OF for next year?

 

Yoshida/Duran/Verdugo and Wilyer Abreu for depth…

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

Yes, and some went on to pretty good careers:

 

Tony Armas Jr. & Carl Pavano (Pedro)

Fossas (career 111 ERA+) & Jorge de la Rosa (career 100 ERA+) (Schilling)

Anibal Sanchez (Beckett)

Kopech (Sale)

 

Who do we give up for the next one?

 

Hopefully not Bello.

 

Drohan and Mata? Drohan, Rafaela, E R-C and Romero?

 

 

None of those pitching prospects swapped by Boston were as good as Bello is so far in a big league Red Sox uniform.

 

To trade Bello now would've been closer to giving up Lester, after he won the World Series in '07 (Bello's ERA is half a run better, but with another half season to go).

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

MLB.com just listed 10 trade chips and where they might land. According to the article, not one single pitcher or even player on the list is headed to Boston. But Bieber, Giolito, Flaherty, Stroman and ERod are all rumored to go to either the Angels, Mets, Padres, Dodgers, Astros, Phils, Braves, Giants, Rays, Orioles, and even the freaking D-backs....

[moonslav59]

MLB.com just listed 10 trade chips and where they might land. According to the article, not one single pitcher or even player on the list is headed to Boston. But Bieber, Giolito, Flaherty, Stroman and ERod are all rumored to go to either the Angels, Mets, Padres, Dodgers, Astros, Phils, Braves, Giants, Rays, Orioles, and even the freaking D-backs....

 

That's because our pitching is awesome, now!

 

No Sale? What the hail!

No Houck?- Whatchootalkinbouk?

No Schreiber? Ummm,,, Who cares!

 

We got Paxton & Bello.

We got Whit & Crawford.

We got... ummm... who cares!

 

[Nick]

That's because our pitching is awesome, now!

 

No Sale? What the hail!

No Houck?- Whatchootalkinbouk?

No Schreiber? Ummm,,, Who cares!

 

We got Paxton & Bello.

We got Whit & Crawford.

We got... ummm... who cares!

 

Ort for one

[Nick]

Crawford with five shutout innings.

 

He only threw 76 pitches so they are obviously stretching him out.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

That's because our pitching is awesome, now!

 

No Sale? What the hail!

No Houck?- Whatchootalkinbouk?

No Schreiber? Ummm,,, Who cares!

 

We got Paxton & Bello.

We got Whit & Crawford.

We got... ummm... who cares!

 

 

We need some bottom of the rotation openers. And zip-lock bags, for easy closing. But not the kind that leech toxins into leftovers. Because WAR is not healthy for children and other living things.

[Hugh2]

We know more about what Duran is than what Rafaela is. And the question involved trading for an ace (whatever that is). You’re not going to get one for Bryan Mata and Brainer Bonaci.

 

And why are the Sox looking at OF for next year?

 

Yoshida/Duran/Verdugo and Wilyer Abreu for depth…

 

You're not getting one for Rafaela either. You'd need 3-4 prospects of his caliber to get an ACE with one of them being closer to Mayers caliber.

 

Emptying the system means you're adding to this team less in the future. So unless you think an ACE makes you a lock to be a WS contender for the next several years it just feels like the wrong time to strike.

 

Especially when one considers that next year you're sitting 100 million under the cap, just reset, and have a much better ACE class than you did this past year in FA. I'm very very very encouraged by Duran, but I wouldn't be making him a lock to man CF for years to come just yet, Yoshida is not a good defender, and Verdugo will be in his last year next year.

 

I'd rather buy and ACE than an outfielder for 2025, and I'd be perfectly happy adding him to next years team. Ohtani? Yama? Urias? Nola? just to name a few off the top.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

You're not getting one for Rafaela either. You'd need 3-4 prospects of his caliber to get an ACE with one of them being closer to Mayers caliber.

 

Emptying the system means you're adding to this team less in the future. So unless you think an ACE makes you a lock to be a WS contender for the next several years it just feels like the wrong time to strike.

 

Especially when one considers that next year you're sitting 100 million under the cap, just reset, and have a much better ACE class than you did this past year in FA. I'm very very very encouraged by Duran, but I wouldn't be making him a lock to man CF for years to come just yet, Yoshida is not a good defender, and Verdugo will be in his last year next year.

 

I'd rather buy and ACE than an outfielder for 2025, and I'd be perfectly happy adding him to next years team. Ohtani? Yama? Urias? Nola? just to name a few off the top.

 

We have each presented opposite views on when it may be best to invest in acquiring an ace.

 

It makes sense to many posters to wait until a team is closer to contention before wasting resources -- and as some allude to -- a pitcher's prime.

 

Other fans that have endured or seen rebuilds over the years also value the impact a top of the rotation starter has on the workload of the entire pitching staff, and even taking some pressure off of the defense and offense.

[notin]

MLB.com just listed 10 trade chips and where they might land. According to the article, not one single pitcher or even player on the list is headed to Boston. But Bieber, Giolito, Flaherty, Stroman and ERod are all rumored to go to either the Angels, Mets, Padres, Dodgers, Astros, Phils, Braves, Giants, Rays, Orioles, and even the freaking D-backs....

 

That settles it. Not even July yet and Bloom already botched the trade deadline.

 

Don’t even try to defend him this time…

[notin]

You're not getting one for Rafaela either. You'd need 3-4 prospects of his caliber to get an ACE with one of them being closer to Mayers caliber.

 

Emptying the system means you're adding to this team less in the future. So unless you think an ACE makes you a lock to be a WS contender for the next several years it just feels like the wrong time to strike.

 

Especially when one considers that next year you're sitting 100 million under the cap, just reset, and have a much better ACE class than you did this past year in FA. I'm very very very encouraged by Duran, but I wouldn't be making him a lock to man CF for years to come just yet, Yoshida is not a good defender, and Verdugo will be in his last year next year.

 

I'd rather buy and ACE than an outfielder for 2025, and I'd be perfectly happy adding him to next years team. Ohtani? Yama? Urias? Nola? just to name a few off the top.

 

BTV accepted Rafaela and Yorke for 1.5 years of Bieber. Luis Castillo was dealt for four prospects, but only one was ranked (Noevi Marte) at the time. We can assume that Edwin Arroyo became a top 100 prospect the following year was not unanticipated.

 

So is Rafaela and Yorke comparable to that pair?

 

I also think Miami - loaded in the rotation, weak in the OF - makes a good landing spot for Rafaela. BTV gives him comparable value to Jesus Luzardo, Edward Cabrera (currently injured), and Braxton Garrett…

 

The Sox are probably better off trading for an ace. Signing one has never worked out…

Edited June 21, 2023 by notin