Red Sox Starting Rotation 2023

[Bellhorn04]

What's the correlation factor between BA and OPS? That might be a simple way to answer the question.

 

Where's Kimmi when you need her?

[notin]

Functionally batting average tells the frequency a ball player successfully puts a ball in play. Putting balls in play is an important function in and of itself. As a coach/ manager I want my players to put balls in play successfully. It is as simple as that.

 

No it doesn’t.

 

A flyball hitter can put the ball in play more frequently than a groundball hitter or a line drive hitter, but he is very likely to wind up with fewer hits…

[Bellhorn04]

Ok.

 

If a player draws 3 walks and hits 2 sac flies but goes 0 for 5, is there value in that?

 

Of course. But this is a small sample question. How many times a year is a player going to have that kind of line? We should be talking about the big picture.

[notin]

What's the correlation factor between BA and OPS? That might be a simple way to answer the question.

 

Where's Kimmi when you need her?

 

Batting average tells you how often a player gets a hit in plate appearances when he doesn’t walk, get hit, voluntarily give himself up, or happen to hit a deep flyball with a runner on third and less than two out. Unless that runner isn’t very fast, in which case the hitter gets penalized. Also all hits, be it a slow roller down the third bad line that the defense hopes goes foul, or 460-foot blasts that clear the entire ballpark, count the same.

 

OBP measures how often you get to 1b by offensive means. It does treat walks like home runs

 

SLG is BA but credits doubles, triples and home runs.

 

OPS credits the batter for reaching base, treats hits based on TB, and either mitigates or eliminates the flaws in BA.

 

Of the 4, BA just tells you the least about a hitter…

[notin]

Of course. But this is a small sample question. How many times a year is a player going to have that kind of line? We should be talking about the big picture.

 

Probably more often than you find .000 BA on any player with significant playing time.

 

If you’re going to use examples that only exist in small sample sizes, don’t discount counter examples that do as well…

[Bellhorn04]

Go ahead and sort any team's regulars by BA and then check the correlation to OPS.

 

Look at the Sox:

 

Top 2 in BA - Yoshida .300, Verdugo .286

Top 2 in OPS - Yoshida .842, Verdugo .801

 

Bottom 2 in BA - Casas .201, Kike .231

Bottom 2 in OPS - Kike .661, Casas .697

 

So you have one small non-correlation. And these aren't isolated examples.

 

TTO Kings like Schwarber aren't really all that common.

[Old Red]

No, he used RBIs for Renfroe and only Renfroe, because it fit is narrative, better.

 

Career BA:

.241 Renfroe- RBIs matter more

.239 Kike- BA matters more

 

 

Renfroe had 96 RBI that year in Boston, and that’s why it was used, and that’s why it mattered. Without it there is a good chance the Red Sox wouldn’t have made the Postseason, since they only got in by the skin of their teeth, and if that hadn’t of happened Kike never would have had the chance to go on his postseason rein of terror that he’s been living off for two years now.

[notin]

Go ahead and sort any team's regulars by BA and then check the correlation to OPS.

 

Look at the Sox:

 

Top 2 in BA - Yoshida .300, Verdugo .286

Top 2 in OPS - Yoshida .842, Verdugo .801

 

Bottom 2 in BA - Casas .201, Kike .231

Bottom 2 in OPS - Kike .661, Casas .697

 

So you have one small non-correlation. And these aren't isolated examples.

 

TTO Kings like Schwarber aren't really all that common.

 

 

Now do San Francisco!! And Atlanta! Or Oakland!!

[Bellhorn04]

Probably more often than you find .000 BA on any player with significant playing time.

 

If you’re going to use examples that only exist in small sample sizes, don’t discount counter examples that do as well…

 

OK use JBJ's .133 this year as a real world example then.

[Bellhorn04]

Now do San Francisco!! And Atlanta! Or Oakland!!

 

San Fran has some non-correlations of a few places, but the overall correlation is strong.

[notin]

San Fran is virtually identical. Did you actually run these yourself?

 

Really? Their top OPS guy was third in BA. Not top two.

 

Also Washington

[notin]

OK use JBJ's .133 this year as a real world example then.

 

An example of what?

 

Gee you named on hitter with a low BA. I guess you proved it universally.

 

Did you get ever answer Noda vs Meneses?

[Bellhorn04]

Really? Their top OPS guy was third in BA. Not top two.

 

It's not a perfect correlation. That's why I brought up correlation factor, which is something that can actually be quantified.

[Bellhorn04]

An example of what?

 

Gee you named on hitter with a low BA. I guess you proved it universally.

 

Did you get ever answer Noda vs Meneses?

 

Now what are you talking about? The typos don't help.

[moonslav59]

Functionally batting average tells the frequency a ball player successfully puts a ball in play. Putting balls in play is an important function in and of itself. As a coach/ manager I want my players to put balls in play successfully. It is as simple as that.

 

Not necessarily. BAbip and BB and K rates play a big role in BA vs the amount of balls put in play.

 

Players who walk a lot, put the ball in play less often than those who don't, assuming the K rates are equal. Players who K a lot may have a higher BAbip and end up with a higher BA than a player who Ks less, assuming the BB% is equal.

 

Arroyo has a .247 BA.

Casas has a .201 BA.

 

Who is a better hitter or batter?

 

BAbip

.313 Arroyo

.250 Casas

 

SLG

.374 Casas

.360 Arroyo

 

OBP

.322 Casas.

.280 Arroyo

 

OPS

.697 Casas

.639 Arroyo

 

[Old Red]

Batting average tells you how often a player gets a hit in plate appearances when he doesn’t walk, get hit, voluntarily give himself up, or happen to hit a deep flyball with a runner on third and less than two out. Unless that runner isn’t very fast, in which case the hitter gets penalized. Also all hits, be it a slow roller down the third bad line that the defense hopes goes foul, or 460-foot blasts that clear the entire ballpark, count the same.

 

OBP measures how often you get to 1b by offensive means. It does treat walks like home runs

 

SLG is BA but credits doubles, triples and home runs.

 

OPS credits the batter for reaching base, treats hits based on TB, and either mitigates or eliminates the flaws in BA.

 

Of the 4, BA just tells you the least about a hitter…

The BA, and eye test tells me the most about a hitter, or at least it does to me, and that’s what matters most to me. The eye test shows, and tells a lot more than any analytics you can come up with. Every pitch, and every AB.

[notin]

It's not a perfect correlation. That's why I brought up correlation factor, which is something that can actually be quantified.

 

Ok but which stat between BA and OPS tells you more about the hitter?

 

And you should see Tampa. Yandy Diaz is good for the correlation. Beyond him, not so much…

[Old Red]

Not necessarily. BAbip and BB and K rates play a big role in BA vs the amount of balls put in play.

 

Players who walk a lot, put the ball in play less often than those who don't, assuming the K rates are equal. Players who K a lot may have a higher BAbip and end up with a higher BA than a player who Ks less, assuming the BB% is equal.

 

Arroyo has a .247 BA.

Casas has a .201 BA.

 

Who is a better hitter or batter?

 

BAbip

.313 Arroyo

.250 Casas

 

SLG

.374 Casas

.360 Arroyo

 

OBP

.322 Casas.

.280 Arroyo

 

OPS

.697 Casas

.639 Arroyo

 

 

Is someone who hits more HR, and walks more a better hitter?

[notin]

It's not a perfect correlation. That's why I brought up correlation factor, which is something that can actually be quantified.

 

And does this correalation tell you they are equal? Which stat is more informative? I’ve asked you this numerous times already…

[Bellhorn04]

An example of what?

 

Gee you named on hitter with a low BA. I guess you proved it universally.

 

OK, try this-how many hitters in baseball history do you think have had an offensive WAR of say over 4 in a season?

 

And how many of them did it with a batting average below .200?

[Elktonnick]

Once again you misquote what I post. I said put the ball in "play successfully" .

[Bellhorn04]

And does this correalation tell you they are equal? Which stat is more informative? I’ve asked you this numerous times already…

 

I already answered that it's not the most informative by itself. But it's not without information value.

 

OBP and OPS are more informative because they add onto or modify batting average. That's why I said it's a starting point.

[moonslav59]

Is someone who hits more HR, and walks more a better hitter?

 

Hard to say.

 

I think OBP is more important than SLG by maybe 60-40%, but that is just a stab in the dark.

 

Most saber guys think OBP is worth more than SLG.

 

Who is better?

 

OBP/SLG/OPS

 

A. .400/.400/.800

or

B. .350/.450/.800

 

I'd go with A.

 

Does this change anything?

 

BA/OBP/SLG/OPS

 

A. .300/.400/.400/.800

or

B. .275/.400/.400/.800

 

Hard to say. B gets more hits, but A must get more walks and XBHs, because their OBP and SLG is the same.

[notin]

I already answered that it's not the most informative by itself. But it's not without information value.

 

OBP and OPS are more informative because they add onto or modify batting average. That's why I said it's a starting point.

 

I said it has less information than other stats. It does. Trying to correlate it among 9 players on one team doesn’t team prove anything.

 

Why not look leaguewide at similar BAs and tell me if they correspond to similar OPSs? Are Gio Urshela (.303) and Lourdes Gurriel (.301) similar hitters this year? BA says so. Or Yandy Diaz (.313) and Nick Castellanos (.312)? Or Corbin Carroll (.308) and Joey Meneses (.307)?

[Dipre]

You can have great seasons with low batting average (Adam Dunn, Mark Reynolds), but it's pretty much impossible to have a great season consisting only of a good batting average. We're not reinventing the wheel here.

[notin]

Hank Aaron was a lifetime .300 hitter with more than 700 home runs. But his xfmdoowops were very mediocre.

 

Hank Aaron was a career .305 hitter. BA tells you he was almost as good as Johnny Pesky.

 

Pesky probably deserves a lot more credit as a player, but in no way was he the offensive force Aaron was. And I don’t think he would have ever had any problem admitting that…

[Dipre]

Hank Aaron was a career .305 hitter. BA tells you he was almost as good as Johnny Pesky.

 

Pesky probably deserves a lot more credit as a player, but in no way was he the offensive force Aaron was. And I don’t think he would have ever had any problem admitting that…

 

Derek Jeter....better than Albert Pujols.

[Old Red]

Hank Aaron was a career .305 hitter. BA tells you he was almost as good as Johnny Pesky.

 

Pesky probably deserves a lot more credit as a player, but in no way was he the offensive force Aaron was. And I don’t think he would have ever had any problem admitting that…

That is where the old times stats BA, HR, and RBI would tell you all you needed to know about Hank. TB was always a big thing with Rice too.

[Old Red]

Derek Jeter....better than Albert Pujols.

 

Does more power make you a better player?

[Dipre]

That is where the old times stats BA, HR, and RBI would tell you all you needed to know about Hank. TB was always a big thing with Rice too.

 

You're moving the goalposts. That wasn't your initial argument.