Red Sox Starting Rotation 2023

[Dipre]

An increase in Bello's fastball spin rate would probably take him into #2 territory as soon as next year. It's the only thing holding him back from plus strikeout numbers.

[mvp 78]

Chris Flexen DFA'd by Mariners. Not saying I would... but...

[notin]

Chris Flexen DFA'd by Mariners. Not saying I would... but...

 

You would. You know it. We all know it.

 

 

(I would, too. DFA Taylor Scott.)

[illinoisredsox]

You would. You know it. We all know it.

 

 

(I would, too. DFA Taylor Scott.)

 

Scott's irrelevant; he's not on the 40 man. DFAing him means nothing.

 

Not sure why they obtained him to begin with, but that's a different discussion.

[notin]

Scott's irrelevant; he's not on the 40 man. DFAing him means nothing.

 

Not sure why they obtained him to begin with, but that's a different discussion.

 

He’s on the 40 man. At least according to soxprospects.com.

 

 

https://www.soxprospects.com/40man.htm

[illinoisredsox]

He’s on the 40 man. At least according to soxprospects.com.

 

 

https://www.soxprospects.com/40man.htm

 

Interesting; he’s not listed on the mlb.com version (not going to go through and figure out the difference; whoever it is is #40 on the list as far as value).

[notin]

Interesting; he’s not listed on the mlb.com version (not going to go through and figure out the difference; whoever it is is #40 on the list as far as value).

 

The mlb.com roster only has 39 players on it…

[illinoisredsox]

The mlb.com roster only has 39 players on it…

 

Like I said, I wasn’t going to go figure out the discrepancy for the 40th guy on the list. Scott is utterly replaceable no matter whether he’s on the 40 man or not.

[moonslav59]

Could it be that our development/coaching of young pitchers is finally starting to improve? (Bello, Crawford, Houck, Winckowski, Whitlock)

 

Are they no longer "suspects?"

[Bellhorn04]

Garrett Whitlock:

 

Career as a starter 4.72 ERA 1.29 WHIP

Career as a reliever 2.24 ERA .99 WHIP

 

[Bellhorn04]

Are they no longer "suspects?"

 

To be brutally objective about it, the only one who looks 100% legit right now is Bello.

 

The others have shown flashes and that's it. Even Wink has been struggling lately. His FIP stands at 4.50 now.

[notin]

Like I said, I wasn’t going to go figure out the discrepancy for the 40th guy on the list. Scott is utterly replaceable no matter whether he’s on the 40 man or not.

 

Agreed. Just like Zack Littell and Matt Dermody before him.

 

Which was my point. DFA Scott and trade for Flexen, which odd having a rough year but does have two good years of MLB success recently, and has 3 arb years left.

 

Per BTV, Flexen has a surplus value of $-0.3 mill. Basically means Seattle’s primary need here is a player not requiring a 40 man roster spot…

Edited June 28, 2023 by notin

[Bellhorn04]

Agreed. Just like Zack Littell and Matt Dermody before him.

 

Which was my point. DFA Scott and trade for Flexen, which odd having a rough year but does have two good years of MLB success recently, and has 3 arb years left.

 

Per BTV, Flexen has a surplus value of $-0.3 mill. Basically means Seattle’s primary need here is a player not requiring a 40 man roster spot…

 

Yep, just do it. Nothing to lose.

[redsoxrules]

Garrett Whitlock:

 

Career as a starter 4.72 ERA 1.29 WHIP

Career as a reliever 2.24 ERA .99 WHIP

 

 

That is a massive difference.

[Dipre]

I keep telling y'all this team is bad and you don't believe me. Alcantara has been "should've been demoted" awful this year.

[notin]

That is a massive difference.

 

True but unfortunately true for most (if not all) pitchers.

 

Pivetta, this year for example.

 

Starter - 6.30 ERA

Reliever - 2.16 ERA

[Bellhorn04]

True but unfortunately true for most (if not all) pitchers.

 

Pivetta, this year for example.

 

Starter - 6.30 ERA

Reliever - 2.16 ERA

 

But the MLB average difference is about 10%.

 

Starter 4.42

Reliever 4.03

[Dipre]

True but unfortunately true for most (if not all) pitchers.

 

Pivetta, this year for example.

 

Starter - 6.30 ERA

Reliever - 2.16 ERA

 

This is a fair point. With notable exceptions, pitchers usually perform better in the BP.

[Bellhorn04]

This is a fair point. With notable exceptions, pitchers usually perform better in the BP.

 

The average is 10%, not 200% or 300% tho.

[moonslav59]

Garrett Whitlock:

 

Career as a starter 4.72 ERA 1.29 WHIP

Career as a reliever 2.24 ERA .99 WHIP

 

 

The "experiment" should be ended. Probably with Houck, too.

 

3.99 as SP (.643 OPSA) 5.05 this year (.695)

2.68 as RP (.570 OPSA)

 

.514 1st time through (.474 first 25 pitches)

.715 second time (.650 26-50)

.944 third time (.833 51-75)

 

This year: .504>.812>.901

1-25: .534

26-50: .596

51-75: .931

 

The problem is, who starts, instead?

 

 

[notin]

But the MLB average difference is about 10%.

 

Starter 4.42

Reliever 4.03

 

But that reliever average includes all the Justin Garza/Kaleb Ort types that simply are not good enough to be starting pitchers, barring the occasional opener role, which isn’t really the same.

 

I will challenge you to find a single pitcher with reasonable experience in both roles (and opener starts don’t count) that doesn’t have a wider disparity than 10%…

[moonslav59]

But that reliever average includes all the Justin Garza/Kaleb Ort types that simply are not good enough to be starting pitchers, barring the occasional opener role, which isn’t really the same.

 

I will challenge you to find a single pitcher with reasonable experience in both roles (and opener starts don’t count) that doesn’t have a wider disparity than 10%…

 

2.25 SP

2.45 RP

 

Papelbon

 

(Ooops, only 3 GS)

 

The thing is, RP'ers sometimes come in with 1-2 outs, which greatly improves on their chances not to have a run charged to them. They start with that advantage.

 

[Dipre]

2.25 SP

2.45 RP

 

Papelbon

 

(Ooops, only 3 GS)

 

The thing is, RP'ers sometimes come in with 1-2 outs, which greatly improves on their chances not to have a run charged to them. They start with that advantage.

 

 

...which is negated by the fact that they pìtch in short bursts and can throw max effort without pacing themselves. Also they usually pitch with the platoon advantage.

[Dipre]

The average is 10%, not 200% or 300% tho.

 

Very rough comparison without accounting for several factors.

[Bellhorn04]

Very rough comparison without accounting for several factors.

 

I invite you to go deep with it.

[Dipre]

I invite you to go deep with it.

 

Goddamnit Bellhorn, I'm not going into that rabbit hole. What I will say is that Whitlock's peripherals are decent. Y'all need to have patience.

[moonslav59]

...which is negated by the fact that they pìtch in short bursts and can throw max effort without pacing themselves. Also they usually pitch with the platoon advantage.

 

Indeed, so if just about every pitcher does better in the pen, let's just move them all there!

 

LOL!

[mvp 78]

Garrett Whitlock:

 

Career as a starter 4.72 ERA 1.29 WHIP

Career as a reliever 2.24 ERA .99 WHIP

 

 

xFIP

SP 3.73

RP 3.06

[notin]

xFIP

SP 3.73

RP 3.06

 

Valid point.

 

Starters on bad defensive teams give the defenses more time to let them down…

[notin]

Indeed, so if just about every pitcher does better in the pen, let's just move them all there!

 

LOL!

 

Practically what Tampa does…