Red Sox Starting Rotation 2023

[moonslav59]

The Sox have had a surfeit of days off over the last 2 weeks--one before, one during, and one after the West Coast trip. Does that count for nothing?

 

These days every time Jansen pitches he looks rusty--because he is.

 

And please name me a team whose rotation averages 6 freaking innings per start.

 

All that said, the Sox play four vs the Rays in the next 3 days, so all that relief pitching tonight, last night, and the night before has probably taken a toll.

 

Nevertheless, when the Sox play two on Saturday my candidate to start the other game is Pivetta, who threw 54 pitches last Sunday (6 days back from this Saturday) 13 yesterday and 15 tonight.

 

If Sale's shoulder puts him on the IL, Pivetta is the obvious choice to rejoin the rotation.

 

We will be pinched for the doubleheader and 4 days afterwards, but I really think the talk of our pen being over-worked is not based on any evidence. Having an 8 man pen with several long guys and starters that go 5.1 IP while the league avg is 5.3 is not putting a strain on anybody. That 20% of an inning differential is tiny.

 

I posted this a few days ago, but these are the projected IP of our pitchers based on how many IP they have, now times 3, since we are about 1/3 done with the season.

 

Name one pitcher who is on pace for over-working?

 

165 Sale (maybe less with this injury)

155 Houck (maybe more, since he misses some time)

150 Pivetta (likely less, unless he returns and stays in the rotation)

125 Kluber (same as Pivetta)

120 Bello (may get more)

65 Whitlock (likely a lot more, if he stays healthy)

60 Paxton (same as Whitlock)

 

Now, the pen...

100 Wink

90 Crawford

60 Bleier

50 Schreiber

45 Jansen

45 Martin

15 Joely

 

I see many pitchers who could and should get more IP than projections indicate.

 

I see no risk of burning out anyone.

 

[Maxbialystock]

We will be pinched for the doubleheader and 4 days afterwards, but I really think the talk of our pen being over-worked is not based on any evidence. Having an 8 man pen with several long guys and starters that go 5.1 IP while the league avg is 5.3 is not putting a strain on anybody. That 20% of an inning differential is tiny.

 

I posted this a few days ago, but these are the projected IP of our pitchers based on how many IP they have, now times 3, since we are about 1/3 done with the season.

 

Name one pitcher who is on pace for over-working?

 

165 Sale (maybe less with this injury)

155 Houck (maybe more, since he misses some time)

150 Pivetta (likely less, unless he returns and stays in the rotation)

125 Kluber (same as Pivetta)

120 Bello (may get more)

65 Whitlock (likely a lot more, if he stays healthy)

60 Paxton (same as Whitlock)

 

Now, the pen...

100 Wink

90 Crawford

60 Bleier

50 Schreiber

45 Jansen

45 Martin

15 Joely

 

I see many pitchers who could and should get more IP than projections indicate.

 

I see no risk of burning out anyone.

 

 

Hard data. Reassuring. Thanks.

[moonslav59]

Hard data. Reassuring. Thanks.

 

BTW, Wink had these IP, recently...

 

132 in 2022 (MLB/AAA)

 

112 in 2021 (AAA/AA)

 

127 in 2019 (A+/A-)

[Old Red]

We will be pinched for the doubleheader and 4 days afterwards, but I really think the talk of our pen being over-worked is not based on any evidence. Having an 8 man pen with several long guys and starters that go 5.1 IP while the league avg is 5.3 is not putting a strain on anybody. That 20% of an inning differential is tiny.

 

I posted this a few days ago, but these are the projected IP of our pitchers based on how many IP they have, now times 3, since we are about 1/3 done with the season.

 

Name one pitcher who is on pace for over-working?

 

165 Sale (maybe less with this injury)

155 Houck (maybe more, since he misses some time)

150 Pivetta (likely less, unless he returns and stays in the rotation)

125 Kluber (same as Pivetta)

120 Bello (may get more)

65 Whitlock (likely a lot more, if he stays healthy)

60 Paxton (same as Whitlock)

 

Now, the pen...

100 Wink

90 Crawford

60 Bleier

50 Schreiber

45 Jansen

45 Martin

15 Joely

 

I see many pitchers who could and should get more IP than projections indicate.

 

I see no risk of burning out anyone.

 

The burn out would most likely not come with Only 1/3 of the season gone, which was brought up the other day. 1/3 of the season is still relatively early, so to see no risk now is pretty premature, and definitely not looking further down the road. Wink, and the Kut Man have been starters, and Pivetta too, and pitching out of the pen is a whole different ballgame. There is a lot more to it than just looking at the amount of innings pitched. What type of innings, how many days between, and how many pitches thrown make a difference.

Edited June 2, 2023 by Old Red

[notin]

Because he was pitching that night. I said the same thing about Paxton last night, because he only pitched 5 innings, and the BP had to go 4. I’ll say the same thing tonight too if Sale doesn’t last .

 

You’re being critical of Paxton’s IP?!?!

 

The guy is coming off injuries that limited him to 21 IP total in the previous three seasons!!

[Old Red]

You’re being critical of Paxton’s IP?!?!

 

The guy is coming off injuries that limited him to 21 IP total in the previous three seasons!!

 

For the upteenth time I’m only talking about how many innings the BP has had to pitch lately, and it doesn’t matter who is starting the game. Tiant, Pedro, or Roger could be starting the game, and if they only go 4-5 innings it doesn’t matter, or change how many innings the BP has to throw.

[notin]

For the upteenth time I’m only talking about how many innings the BP has had to pitch lately, and it doesn’t matter who is starting the game. Tiant, Pedro, or Roger could be starting the game, and if they only go 4-5 innings it doesn’t matter, or change how many innings the BP has to throw.

 

No but you can’t blame pitchers on a pitch count for health concerns. There’s a difference between Paxton reaching his count or whatever and going 5, and Sale going 5. And Cora needs to absolutely plan for the first while being wary of the second…

[Dipre]

If Sale is done for the season, so are the Red Sox.

[moonslav59]

You’re being critical of Paxton’s IP?!?!

 

The guy is coming off injuries that limited him to 21 IP total in the previous three seasons!!

 

We've had 3 days off in the last 15. I'm not seeing an overtaxed pen, right now.

 

The upcoming DH might hurt, and having to use Wink twice, recently hurts, but we have some innings eaters in the pen.

[notin]

We've had 3 days off in the last 15. I'm not seeing an overtaxed pen, right now.

 

The upcoming DH might hurt, and having to use Wink twice, recently hurts, but we have some innings eaters in the pen.

 

 

If they need a reliever tonight, Sherriff might get a non-save inning or two just so he can get demoted (DFAd?) and a fresh arm called up. Likely Bernardino or Ort…

[Old Red]

No but you can’t blame pitchers on a pitch count for health concerns. There’s a difference between Paxton reaching his count or whatever and going 5, and Sale going 5. And Cora needs to absolutely plan for the first while being wary of the second…

 

I’m not Blaming anyone. My point still is that the BP has had to throw a lot of innings lately, and it doesn’t matter why, how, or when. Paxton got last taken out, because he throw 100 pitches in 5 innings, so that’s on him, and he threw 107 pitches a couple games before that. He’s not on any pitch count for health concerns either.

Edited June 2, 2023 by Old Red

[mvp 78]

If Sale is done for the season, so are the Red Sox.

 

Unless Kluber comes back from the paternity list and pitches like 2016.

[Old Red]

Unless Kluber comes back from the paternity list and pitches like 2016.

 

We’ll find out tomorrow.

[mvp 78]

We’ll find out tomorrow.

 

Was he announced as a starter?

[moonslav59]

If they need a reliever tonight, Sherriff might get a non-save inning or two just so he can get demoted (DFAd?) and a fresh arm called up. Likely Bernardino or Ort…

 

Don't we get a 27th player for the DH, too?

[Maxbialystock]

The burn out would most likely not come with Only 1/3 of the season gone, which was brought up the other day. 1/3 of the season is still relatively early, so to see no risk now is pretty premature, and definitely not looking further down the road. Wink, and the Kut Man have been starters, and Pivetta too, and pitching out of the pen is a whole different ballgame. There is a lot more to it than just looking at the amount of innings pitched. What type of innings, how many days between, and how many pitches thrown make a difference.

 

There you go again, backing and filling. You said the bullpen was/is busted, exhausted, unable to continue. Moonslav provides solid evidence you're wrong. So now your tune is, "no, I meant sometime in the future when you will have forgotten what I said back in May."

 

Also, I don't mind agreeing that at some point it's possible for the bullpen to in fact get tired. But you never said that. You said it's tired right now.

Edited June 2, 2023 by Maxbialystock

[notin]

Don't we get a 27th player for the DH, too?

 

So that all but confirms the return of Ort…

[Maxbialystock]

I still think Pivetta starts tomorrow. As I said last night, he went 3 innings and 54 pitches last Sunday, then 13 pitches Wed night and 15 pitches last night. Even better is that overall those 5 innings were scoreless with 7 K's and 0 BB's and 0 hits. Why? I think because he's using his breaking stuff more and his fastball less. Also, on April 10 Pivetta went 5 innings and 0 runs in the Trop.

 

Kluber, meanwhile, has shown us nothing since his last start.

 

That said, I trust Cora to make the smart choice. He may decide Pivetta is best used as a long reliever in games the Sox have a chance of winning. If he starts Saturday, that will be his only game in this series.

[Old Red]

There you go again, backing and filling. You said the bullpen was/is busted, exhausted, unable to continue. Moonslav provides solid evidence you're wrong. So now your tune is, "no, I meant sometime in the future when you will have forgotten what I said back in May."

 

Also, I don't mind agreeing that at some point it's possible for the bullpen to in fact get tired. But you never said that. You said it's tired right now.

 

You show me where I said the BP is/was busted right now. Show it! Moon hasn’t show anything to raised concerns on the workload of the BP. He keeps talking about now only 1/3 through the season. I said the BP has been worked hard the last 3 days on another thread. Once again show me where I said it’s tired now, and as always relax, and have a Gansett.

[notin]

I still think Pivetta starts tomorrow. As I said last night, he went 3 innings and 54 pitches last Sunday, then 13 pitches Wed night and 15 pitches last night. Even better is that overall those 5 innings were scoreless with 7 K's and 0 BB's and 0 hits. Why? I think because he's using his breaking stuff more and his fastball less. Also, on April 10 Pivetta went 5 innings and 0 runs in the Trop.

 

Kluber, meanwhile, has shown us nothing since his last start.

 

That said, I trust Cora to make the smart choice. He may decide Pivetta is best used as a long reliever in games the Sox have a chance of winning. If he starts Saturday, that will be his only game in this series.

 

If Sale is out, one of those two will be making a prolonged return to the rotation…

[Old Red]

Was he announced as a starter?

 

On CBS Sports they have him listed as starting the 1st game.

[moonslav59]

There you go again, backing and filling. You said the bullpen was/is busted, exhausted, unable to continue. Moonslav provides solid evidence you're wrong. So now your tune is, "no, I meant sometime in the future when you will have forgotten what I said back in May."

 

Also, I don't mind agreeing that at some point it's possible for the bullpen to in fact get tired. But you never said that. You said it's tired right now.

 

I'm not sure Red went that far, but no pitcher is overworked, right now. We've had 3 days off, recently and nobody has been pushed over the limit yet. If our SP'ers don't go long in the next few games, that might change, but short or long term, right now, nobody is overworked. I'd even say most are well-rested. The DH'er presents the opportunity for overwork, and only Wink should not pitch from the pen, tonight.

Edited June 2, 2023 by moonslav59

[mvp 78]

On CBS Sports they have him listed as starting the 1st game.

 

Well, that frees up Saturday afternoon for us!

[Maxbialystock]

I'm not sure Red went that far, but no pitcher is overworked, right now. We've had 3 days off, recently and nobody has been pushed over the limit yet. If our SP'ers don't go long in the next few games, that might change, but short or long term, right now, nobody is overworked. I'd even say most are well-rested. The DH'er presents the opportunity for overwork, and only Wink should not pitch from the pen, tonight.

 

Agree on Old Red. My usual preference is to add a little emphasis to my commentary. I believe I was the first one who cited the three days off recently, but I had no idea about the numbers you produced.

 

On Old Red's side is that Sale has been our best innings-eater with 59 in 11 starts (about 5 1/2 IP per start). Houck is next with 52.2 in 10 starts, then Pivetta--yes, Pivetta--with 50.1 in 8 starts and 5 reliefs, then Kluber with 41.2 in 9 starts, Bello 39.1 in 8 starts and Whitlock with 41 innings in 4 starts.

 

So, going back to your point about 5.1 innings per start by the Sox so far, I think that is maintainable.

[moonslav59]

Agree on Old Red. My usual preference is to add a little emphasis to my commentary. I believe I was the first one who cited the three days off recently, but I had no idea about the numbers you produced.

 

On Old Red's side is that Sale has been our best innings-eater with 59 in 11 starts (about 5 1/2 IP per start). Houck is next with 52.2 in 10 starts, then Pivetta--yes, Pivetta--with 50.1 in 8 starts and 5 reliefs, then Kluber with 41.2 in 9 starts, Bello 39.1 in 8 starts and Whitlock with 41 innings in 4 starts.

 

So, going back to your point about 5.1 innings per start by the Sox so far, I think that is maintainable.

 

To put the seasonal or 1/3 season numbers into perspective, here is another way to look at it.

 

Every 5 games, these RP'ers can go...

 

2 IP: Jansen, Martin, Schreiber, Joely = 8 (60 IP/year)

 

3 1/3 IP: Wink, Whit, Piv, Kluber= 13 1/3 (100 IP)

 

Total: 21 1/3/ per 5 games= about 4 1/3 IP per game

 

That is doable.

That is what has been happening (or less)

We are not overtaxing our staff, right now.

That can change, if SP'ers start going 3-4 times each rotation. Maybe even 2 times.

 

[Dipre]

The problem isn't just IP, but also staff ineffectiveness. The Sox have so many comeback wins because the SP give up a lot of runs.

[Hugh2]

The problem isn't just IP, but also staff ineffectiveness. The Sox have so many comeback wins because the SP give up a lot of runs.

 

Exactly, starting pitchers would go deeper into games if they......wait for it........PITCHED BETTER!!!!

[moonslav59]

The problem isn't just IP, but also staff ineffectiveness. The Sox have so many comeback wins because the SP give up a lot of runs.

 

Getting shelled early can sometimes take the heat off the pen, especially the ones you want to limit or baby, and you can often demote and call up new mop-up RP'ers to manage IP better.

 

You are right. It is not just about IP or pitches throw. Even getting told to warm up and not come in takes its toll.

 

My point is that I just have not seen any moment where we brought a RP'er and, and I thought, "This guy is being overused and should not be in this game."

 

It seems more often, I'm saying, "This guy was available, so why didn't we use him?"

[moonslav59]

Exactly, starting pitchers would go deeper into games if they......wait for it........PITCHED BETTER!!!!

 

That has been our number one weak area, this year, but IMO, not because it is burning out our pen. I don't think it is.

 

The problem is, getting shelled early or in the 4th or 5th is what is losing most of our games.

[Maxbialystock]

With absolutely no intention of being ironic, allow me to say I believe the rotation has improved. They still could stand to last longer, but a quick glance at the Sox schedule tells us that--

 

Sale gave up just 1 run in 3.2 IP last night before the shoulder went bad,

the night before Paxton had 5 IP and 1 ER,

before him Bello went 4 IP with 1 ER,

before him Houck went 4 IP giving up 4 ER,

before him, before him Whitlock with 5 IP and 1 ER,

before him Sale went 5 IP and 1 ER,

before him Paxton went 3 IP and 5 ER,

before him Bello went 7 IP and 2 ER,

before him Houck went 6 IP and 1 ER

before him Kluber went 2.1 IP and 1 ER,

before him Sale went 7 IP and 2 ER,

before him Paxton went 6 IP and 1 ER

before him Bello went 5 IP and 1 ER

before him Pivetta went 5.1 IP and 4 ER

 

I count 14 games and 3 bad starts--by Houck, Paxton, and Pivetta. In the other 11 games the Sox lineup and bullpen had a good shot at winning.

 

That's not what happened of course. In Pivetta's 5.1 IP and 4ER game the Sox won, 9-4.

 

And way back on May 13 Sale went 8 IP and 1 ER and Jansen came in and gave away 3 runs in the 9th for a 4-3 loss. The day/night before Paxton went 5 IP and 2 ER, but Winck gave up 3 ER and Jansen another 3 and the Sox lost 8-6.