Red Sox Starting Rotation 2023

[notin]

OK, maybe I'm clutching at straws when I say he might do better with Wong. Maybe that's just my way of being optimistic...

 

I think Kluber averaging 88mph with limited command is the bigger issue.

 

Having looked at StatCast data as a result of these CERA debates, I did notice Wong ranks among the best catchers in MLB for most of the metrics they monitor. Of course, at this stage of the season, sample sizes are limited.

 

McGuire isn’t the bottom of catcher defense per StatCast. Hes pretty average, basically the same as the now overpaid Christian Vazquez…

[Hugh2]

I know, but that's baseball. One bad pitch can result in up to 4 runs. It's just how the game is designed. There's a small margin for error.

 

It’s also another example of why we don’t use small sample sizes. Yet we all do it, but they need to be taken with context, supporting stats and the eye test can compliment too.

 

For example. Chris Sale was dominant in his last start, but he passed the eye test in his prior start. His raw stuff was there, it returned, it was just his command that was off. It would have been a good bet at that point that at some point he’s going to shake the rust off and improve the command and return to dominance.

 

Yes it’s just one start. Small sample sizes can be misleading when a guy goes 3-4 with two bloop hits and a weak infield single and the next guy can go 0-4 with 4 line drive outs. That’s baseball. But stuff is stuff, and Chris Sales was back. Yes, it’s only a few starts but stuff is stuff and if it’s returned that gives us every reason to be optimistic.

 

If people are allowed to have their cups half empty, I’m allowed to have mine half full.

[Bellhorn04]

I think Kluber averaging 88mph with limited command is the bigger issue.

 

Having looked at StatCast data as a result of these CERA debates, I did notice Wong ranks among the best catchers in MLB for most of the metrics they monitor. Of course, at this stage of the season, sample sizes are limited.

 

McGuire isn’t the bottom of catcher defense per StatCast. Hes pretty average, basically the same as the now overpaid Christian Vazquez…

 

Vazquez has an fWAR of 0.3. That projects to a season-ending number of about 2.4, which will be valued in free agent dollars at about $20 mill. And he's making $10 mill.

 

So I disagree with you there too.

[notin]

Vazquez has an fWAR of 0.3. That projects to a season-ending number of about 2.4, which will be valued in free agent dollars at about $20 mill. And he's making $10 mill.

 

So I disagree with you there too.

 

And how often do 20 game projections hold up over 162 games? By that logic, Max Muncy will hit 80 HRs this year and Adam Duvall will injure 16 wrists.

 

I think for about $2mill, the Sox stand a very good chance to exceed both the offense and defense Vazquez would have provided, and I’d take the current tandem over Vaz.

 

Of course if signing Vaz meant not signing Kluber, i probably would have objected at the time, back when I still had faith in Kluber. But in hindsight it would have been the smarter move..

[Nick]

Vazquez has an fWAR of 0.3. That projects to a season-ending number of about 2.4, which will be valued in free agent dollars at about $20 mill. And he's making $10 mill.

 

So I disagree with you there too.

 

The problem is no matter what the fWAR say, no one is going to give Vaz $20M per year. Right now there's only one catcher worthy of that contract and I don't have to see any metrics.

[Nick]

Rolling Power Rating for our Starters

1 Chris Sale...maybe his demise announced by our Yankee fan here was premature.

2 Tanner Houck (And our manager thinks he should go to the pen? Really?)

3 Whitlock (1 out of 3 start is not great)

4 Nick Pivetta (he's the true definition of mediocrity)

5 Bello...can move up to #3 with a strong start today

6 Kutter....not ready to give up on him, second only to Tanner in "*uc* you demeanor. Love it.

7 Winckowski...his arsenal has improved.

8 Paxton.....he may stay at #8 as he racks up IL time

9 Kluber...his tank looks empty

Edited April 23, 2023 by Nick

[Hugh2]

Rolling Power Rating for our Starters

1 Chris Sale...maybe his demise announced by our Yankee fan here was premature.

2 Tanner Houck (And our manager thinks he should go to the pen? Really?)

3 Whitlock (1 out of 3 start is not great)

4 Nick Pivetta (he's the true definition of mediocrity)

5 Bello...can move up to #3 with a strong start today

6 Kutter....not ready to give up on him, second only to Tanner in "*uc* you demeanor. Love it.

7 Winckowski...his arsenal has improved.

8 Paxton.....he may stay at #8 as he racks up IL time

9 Kluber...his tank looks empty

 

But Winck and Cutter aren’t starters right now, maybe in a swing role but cutter is probably first up. I think they really really like Winck in the bullpen and will try to keep him there. A lot has to go wrong for him to start.

 

If Paxton looks good he’s going to add to the equation, he will be given his chance. At the very least he can replace Kluber if you wanna stay with the 6 man for a while and let things work out.

 

Kluber is going to be given some rope here, and if he continues to suck that is unfortunate and heads will roll in here. But If that happens at some point the Sox are going to move on from him. Is that after his next start? Or after 10 more? I have no ideal.

[Nick]

But Winck and Cutter aren’t starters right now, maybe in a swing role but cutter is probably first up. I think they really really like Winck in the bullpen and will try to keep him there. A lot has to go wrong for him to start.

 

If Paxton looks good he’s going to add to the equation, he will be given his chance. At the very least he can replace Kluber if you wanna stay with the 6 man for a while and let things work out.

 

Kluber is going to be given some rope here, and if he continues to suck that is unfortunate and heads will roll in here. But If that happens at some point the Sox are going to move on from him. Is that after his next start? Or after 10 more? I have no ideal.

 

I wasn't suggesting moving Winckowski to starter role. BUT if we had to, say Sale and someone else gets hurt, it's nice to know we have options.

 

I'm just having fun....I have all my chores done.

 

Waiting for Must See TV....Bello's second start of the year.

[Hugh2]

I wasn't suggesting moving Winckowski to starter role. BUT if we had to, say Sale and someone else gets hurt, it's nice to know we have options.

 

I'm just having fun....I have all my chores done.

 

Waiting for Must See TV....Bello's second start of the year.

 

Well that’s why I think they a lot has to go wrong for them to move Winck out of that role.

 

Right now Crawford/Paxton are ahead of him. Maybe not in skill, but in fit. Also depending on timing and performance, if they need another starter for a week or two and want to keep Winck in that role they could call someone up from AAA to do so. So yeah, I think a lot has to go wrong.

 

I know you knew those guys aren’t starters. I pretty much agree with your whole take.

[moonslav59]

By all means defend McGuire. He's on our team, the Red Sox, for crying out loud. I'm just being a pissant because not catching that third strike--in the strike zone, yet--really torqued me. On the other hand, I'm happy to overlook catcher interference by Wong.

 

You have rightfully pointed to 2b, SS, and CF as bigger problems than whether McGuire is as good as Wong.

 

Actually, Kluber is the leader on my latest s__t list. A $10M wrecking machine.

 

Interesting that Crawford remains in the bullpen. If nothing else, he could be a long reliever. Last night would likely have turned out better if Crawford pitched the 4th-6th innings or longer.

 

I'm not sure McGuire is who I hope(d) he is or will be.

 

I'd be thrilled, if Wong wins the job, because he is doing better and continues getting good results from the pitchers he catches. It is likely we settle into a specific catcher-pitcher set up. Already, McGuire has not caught Whitlock or Houck, and Wong has not caught Bello. My guess is, Sale, Kluber and Pivetta will settle into a one catcher routine, at some point.

 

Just so you know, I'd be defending Wong, if anyone was harping on him, too.

[moonslav59]

It’s also another example of why we don’t use small sample sizes. Yet we all do it, but they need to be taken with context, supporting stats and the eye test can compliment too.

 

For example. Chris Sale was dominant in his last start, but he passed the eye test in his prior start. His raw stuff was there, it returned, it was just his command that was off. It would have been a good bet at that point that at some point he’s going to shake the rust off and improve the command and return to dominance.

 

Yes it’s just one start. Small sample sizes can be misleading when a guy goes 3-4 with two bloop hits and a weak infield single and the next guy can go 0-4 with 4 line drive outs. That’s baseball. But stuff is stuff, and Chris Sales was back. Yes, it’s only a few starts but stuff is stuff and if it’s returned that gives us every reason to be optimistic.

 

If people are allowed to have their cups half empty, I’m allowed to have mine half full.

 

Yes, McGuire got Sale all ready for that good start with Wong.

[Larry Cook]

Rolling Power Rating for our Starters

1 Chris Sale...maybe his demise announced by our Yankee fan here was premature.

2 Tanner Houck (And our manager thinks he should go to the pen? Really?)

3 Whitlock (1 out of 3 start is not great)

4 Nick Pivetta (he's the true definition of mediocrity)

5 Bello...can move up to #3 with a strong start today

6 Kutter....not ready to give up on him, second only to Tanner in "*uc* you demeanor. Love it.

7 Winckowski...his arsenal has improved.

8 Paxton.....he may stay at #8 as he racks up IL time

9 Kluber...his tank looks empty

Are Paxton and kluber past their expiration date?

[moonslav59]

Are Paxton and kluber past their expiration date?

 

Maybe, but with so much time missed, they should still have something left in the tank.

 

Kluber has pitched in 13 seasons but only has 1600 IP, which is about 8 seasons at 200 IP.

 

Paxton is 34 and has pitched in 9 seasons with just 750 IP. That's just 4 seasons at 190 IP.

 

Porcello had 1200 IP by age 26 and almost 1700 at age 28.

Edited April 23, 2023 by moonslav59

[notin]

Are Paxton and kluber past their expiration date?

 

Kluber appears so. We should probably let Paxton throw a pitch first…

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

Are Paxton and kluber past their expiration date?

 

Kluber's an open container, put back in the fridge. May have lost his fizz, but hasn't totally spoiled yet.

 

Paxton's still sitting in a vat somewhere, awaiting the next canning day. Can't even put him on the shelf yet...

[Hugh2]

Kluber's an open container, put back in the fridge. May have lost his fizz, but hasn't totally spoiled yet.

 

Paxton's still sitting in a vat somewhere, awaiting the next canning day. Can't even put him on the shelf yet...

 

No, Paxton will be coming off the shelf soon. Maybe Kluber has a shorter leash than I think and he replaces him after his next start.

[moonslav59]

No, Paxton will be coming off the shelf soon. Maybe Kluber has a shorter leash than I think and he replaces him after his next start.

 

They may piggyback Kluber with Paxton (not Bello/Paxton) and yanks Kluber earlier, if needed.

[Bellhorn04]

I wonder who's gonna catch Sale and Kluber this time around?

[mvp 78]

I think Kluber averaging 88mph with limited command is the bigger issue.

 

Having looked at StatCast data as a result of these CERA debates, I did notice Wong ranks among the best catchers in MLB for most of the metrics they monitor. Of course, at this stage of the season, sample sizes are limited.

 

McGuire isn’t the bottom of catcher defense per StatCast. Hes pretty average, basically the same as the now overpaid Christian Vazquez…

 

Huh?

 

Blocks Above Average:

McGuire 2

Wong -1

 

Framing Runs:

McGuire 0

Wong 0

[mvp 78]

Are Paxton and kluber past their expiration date?

 

I'm not sure what Paxton can provide. He still has velo. Maybe he can provide lightning in a bottle. More likely he just goes back on the IL after a few starts.

 

Klubers velo is down. His command is down. If he falls behind in the count and has to get over an 88mph 4 seamer, the next pitch is likely headed for the seats. He was able to be a decent pitcher last year, but it looks like time has finally caught up with him.

[moonslav59]

I wonder who's gonna catch Sale and Kluber this time around?

 

Dude, you really need to think about something else!

 

[Bellhorn04]

Dude, you really need to think about something else!

 

 

I've posted about plenty of other things this morning, dude.

[moonslav59]

I've posted about plenty of other things this morning, dude.

 

I haven't gotten caught up.

 

We went to see Taylor Swift, last night, and got back late.

[mvp 78]

I'm not sure it matters who catches Kluber. I'd have Wong catch Sale again.

[moonslav59]

I'm all torn up on who should catch Bello.

 

2022 CERA

2.87 w McGuire (67 PAs)

3.20 w Wong (118)

8.82 w Vaz (83)

 

But...

 

2023

5.78 w Wong 921)

16.88 w McGuire (18)

[mvp 78]

@itsbrianbarrett

Chris Sale

 

4-seamer

 

Twins start

 

41 (43.6%)

 

19 swings

9 whiffs

47.4% whiff rate

8 called strikes

17 CS+whiffs

41.5% called strike plus whiff rate

 

94.3 mph

 

@itsbrianbarrett

Rays starts

 

22 (27.2%)

 

9 swings

2 whiffs

22.2% whiff rate

5 CS+whiffs

22.7% called strike plus whiff rate

 

93.0 mph

[moonslav59]

I'm not sure it matters who catches Kluber. I'd have Wong catch Sale again.

 

How did Wong get that extra 1.3 mph from Sale?

[mvp 78]

How did Wong get that extra 1.3 mph from Sale?

 

Magnetic personality.

[Bellhorn04]

Magnetic personality.

 

Advanced Binkyness.

[moonslav59]

Magnetic personality.

 

Could it also be he just called for more FBs?