Red Sox Starting Rotation 2023

[Maxbialystock]

Except that Wong can't possibly catch every game.

 

McGuire is a work in progress as a catcher, I think.

 

Completely agree with both points. Let McGuire be the backup catcher with Wong starting 3 or 4 out of every 5 games. McGuire starts the other game(s) and and pinch-hits for Wong in late and close games.

[Maxbialystock]

I use the term zero-sum game as it is often applied in game-theory in which the benefit of one player results in the net loss of benefit to another player.

 

Just because Wong may be the starting catcher, doesn't mean McGuire is a bad catcher. Someone has to take the lions share behind the dish.

 

OK, I sort of misunderstood you.

 

But not completely. I vehemently disagree with your assertion that McGuire is not a bad catcher because he has demonstrated he is lousy behind the plate (but so far a pretty good hitter).

 

Last night McGuire did his level best to let the Brewers back into the game. That's why Cora pinch hit for him in the 6th inning.

Edited April 22, 2023 by Maxbialystock

[notin]

Except that Wong can't possibly catch every game.

 

McGuire is a work in progress as a catcher, I think.

 

It’s funny. If you look at McGuire’s Stat Cast numbers, he profiles similar to Vazquez. Similar arm strength. Similar pop up times. Similar Framing grades.

 

No one complained about Vazquez as a defender. Some still seem to think his defense is missing. Because when McGuire does the same stuff, it’s just wrong now.

 

StatCast does also say on these aspects of catching, Wong blows both Vazquez and McGuire away…

[notin]

OK, I sort of misunderstood you.

 

But not completely. I vehemently disagree with your assertion that McGuire is not a bad catcher because he has demonstrated he is lousy behind the plate (but so far a pretty good hitter).

 

Last night McGuire did his level best to let the Padres back into the game. That's why Cora pinch hit for him in the 6th inning.

 

 

Brewers. The Sox played the Brewers last night…

[Hugh2]

It’s funny. If you look at McGuire’s Stat Cast numbers, he profiles similar to Vazquez. Similar arm strength. Similar pop up times. Similar Framing grades.

 

No one complained about Vazquez as a defender. Some still seem to think his defense is missing. Because when McGuire does the same stuff, it’s just wrong now.

 

StatCast does also say on these aspects of catching, Wong blows both Vazquez and McGuire away…

 

Statcast for the last several years pretty has McGuire as a middle of the pact defender. He’s an average defender.

 

I’m not sure what the stats are these days but if someone has a cognitive bias towards McGuire I can see how every little thing can be scrutinized and critiqued to the point that someone believes in their head that it is blatantly obvious McGuire is a bad catcher.

 

All evidence points to the contrary. If he’s our backup, he’s shaping up to be a pretty darn good back up.

[moonslav59]

Except that Wong can't possibly catch every game.

 

McGuire is a work in progress as a catcher, I think.

 

Both of our catchers are works in progress.

 

It's a 21 game sample size. No definitive judgments should be made on that.

[Maxbialystock]

Statcast for the last several years pretty has McGuire as a middle of the pact defender. He’s an average defender.

 

I’m not sure what the stats are these days but if someone has a cognitive bias towards McGuire I can see how every little thing can be scrutinized and critiqued to the point that someone believes in their head that it is blatantly obvious McGuire is a bad catcher.

 

All evidence points to the contrary. If he’s our backup, he’s shaping up to be a pretty darn good back up.

 

I'm probably guilty as charged because those stats are new to me. All I know is what I've seen. McGuire's defense, especially mistakes that lead to runs by the other team, pisses me off.

 

On the other hand, I would be nuts not to be happy that the Sox right now have two catchers with positive WAR's.

 

And you are dead right: if McGuire is the backup, he ain't half bad.

[Maxbialystock]

Both of our catchers are works in progress.

 

It's a 21 game sample size. No definitive judgments should be made on that.

 

It's just 21 games, but it's also the only sample we have. This is a blog site, not the last judgment.

 

Opinions based on scant evidence are the currency of the day.

[Maxbialystock]

Brewers. The Sox played the Brewers last night…

 

You're right. But I like the sound of Padres better.

[Maxbialystock]

Since this thread is about the rotation, I hereby declare Wong and McGuire together to be adequate to the task of catching our starters--and that I continue to believe Kluber should be the odd man out.

 

I think I read that right now the Sox are going with a six man rotation and that that could/should change by the end of the month. So I'm guessing Kluber has one more shot at proving he isn't the odd man out.

 

Of course, Cora and Bloom never consult me, so Kluber could get the go ahead to start a bunch more games if only because he's being paid $10M, plus he's won two Cy Young awards. And, who knows, maybe he's kind to strangers too.

[Bellhorn04]

Both of our catchers are works in progress.

 

It's a 21 game sample size. No definitive judgments should be made on that.

 

True, but the huge CERA difference between the two goes back to 2022, post-trade deadline. That's exactly what makes it so notable, with virtually a whole different set of pitchers.

[notin]

True, but the huge CERA difference between the two goes back to 2022, post-trade deadline. That's exactly what makes it so notable, with virtually a whole different set of pitchers.

 

It’s actually almost literally a whole different set of pitchers…

[moonslav59]

True, but the huge CERA difference between the two goes back to 2022, post-trade deadline. That's exactly what makes it so notable, with virtually a whole different set of pitchers.

 

...and every single sample size is tiny and many are lopsided and even all vs none with some pitchers.

 

Yes, there is some significance to the fact that a wide differential skewing towards one catch vs the other, even among sample sizes, but it's just not true.

 

When you look pitcher by pitcher, the differential is not significant.

 

When you compare each pitcher that have more than tiny sample sizes with each catcher, separately- one by one, Wong barely has an edge at all.

[Bellhorn04]

...and every single sample size is tiny and many are lopsided and even all vs none with some pitchers.

 

Yes, there is some significance to the fact that a wide differential skewing towards one catch vs the other, even among sample sizes, but it's just not true.

 

When you look pitcher by pitcher, the differential is not significant.

 

When you compare each pitcher that have more than tiny sample sizes with each catcher, separately- one by one, Wong barely has an edge at all.

 

I know all that, but when you have a difference of 3 runs a game in 2 separate seasons, it's extremely unusual. I've never seen anything like it.

 

Here's one statistical observation that's totally unbiased.

 

Sale and Kluber have each started 3 times with McGuire and once with Wong. In both cases the only good start was with Wong.

 

If it was all random, the chances of the one good start coming with Wong would be 25% for each pitcher. The chances of it happening with both are 25% * 25% = 6.25%.

 

It doesn't prove anything, but it's more statistical evidence that Wong is somehow getting better results.

[moonslav59]

I know all that, but when you have a difference of 3 runs a game in 2 separate seasons, it's extremely unusual. I've never seen anything like it.

 

Here's one statistical observation that's totally unbiased.

 

Sale and Kluber have each started 3 times with McGuire and once with Wong. In both cases the only good start was with Wong.

 

If it was all random, the chances of the one good start coming with Wong would be 25% for each pitcher. The chances of it happening with both are 25% * 25% = 6.25%.

 

It doesn't prove anything, but it's more statistical evidence that Wong is somehow getting better results.

 

You act like "two separate seasons" is 300+ games.

 

Your unbiased observation is cherry-picked to find the two widest disparity pitchers, each with just a one game sample size with one catcher. I'm really quite surprised you are putting so much faith and energy into such a tiny sample size.

 

Honestly, it really is not much different from me using this to counter you:

 

OPS Against:

 

Whitlock:

.000 w McGuire

.819 w Wong

 

Houck

.000 w McGuire

.705 w Wong

 

My choice of cherry-picked sample sizes involves just one less game with one pitcher (zero instead of one.)

 

How about looking at the pitchers both have caught more than 13 PAs with each catcher?

 

First, let me point out that using 13 or more PAs as the minimum sample size goes against every bone in my body as being anywhere near a significant sample size, but I will do so to show the disparity is not as great as you think it is.

 

No cherry-picking. These are all the sample sizes where both pitchers have 13 or more PAs with each catcher.

 

Wink

.584 w Wong (45 PAs)

.377 w McGuire (19)

 

Pivetta

.719 w Wong (45)

.852 w McGuire (43)

 

Crawford

.891 w Wong (45)

.310 w McGuire (29)

 

Brasier

.764 w Wong (25)

.880 w McGuire (30)

 

Schreiber

.681 w Wong (23)

.575 w McGuire (16)

 

Bleier

.686 w Wong (18)

.866 w McGuire (16)

 

Ort

.752 w Wong (37)

.871 w McGuire (13)

 

Jansen

.641 w Wong (13)

.220 w McGuire (14)

 

Martin

.918 w Wong (18)

.482 w McGuire (11)

 

It's 6 to 5 in McGuire's favor before the lopsided ones are counted:

 

And your two unbalanced samples...

Sale

.430 w Wong (25)

1.061 w McGuire (64)

 

Kluber

.544 w Wong (19)

1.045 w McGuire (64)

 

Wong is better with 7. McGuire is better with 6.

 

Wong has not caught Bello. McGuire has not caught Houck or Whitlock. (That's a huge part of the 3 run differential.)

 

This is why looking at overall CERA numbers are misleading and near insignificant, and that's before talking sample size values.

 

 

Edited April 22, 2023 by moonslav59

[notin]

You're right. But I like the sound of Padres better.

 

I will say, if he let the Padres back into a Red Sox-Brewers game, I am with you 100% on questioning his defensive aptitude…

[moonslav59]

It's just 21 games, but it's also the only sample we have. This is a blog site, not the last judgment.

 

Opinions based on scant evidence are the currency of the day.

 

I get that, but this sample size is not 21 games.

 

We are talking about 2 games- one with Sale and one with Kluber that are supposed to change our opinions. I know these are not final judgments by anyone.

 

McGuire has better OPS Against numbers with 6 out of 11 pitchers, but the two lopsided sample sizes of Sale (64 to 25 PAs) and Kluber (64 to 19) flip the score to Wong 7 to 6.

 

Even 7-6 is not very convincing. Just my opinion.

 

IMO, and catcher who gets to catch Whitlock and Houck, exclusively should have a better overall CERA.

Edited April 23, 2023 by moonslav59

[Bellhorn04]

Good counterpoints, moon. I will say I don't think anyone will refute that that we weren't expecting Wong to catch as much as he has, especially where he's obviously the weaker bat.

 

Also, I don't think it's fair to call focusing on Sale and Kluber cherry-picking. They're supposed to be our #1 and #2 starters, after all.

Edited April 23, 2023 by Bellhorn04

[Bellhorn04]

Now for the grisly tale of the tape on our starters vs. relievers after 22 games:

 

Starters 6.64 ERA .873 OPSa

Relievers 3.31 ERA .638 OPSa

[Hugh2]

Now for the grisly tale of the tape on our starters vs. relievers after 22 games:

 

Starters 6.64 ERA .873 OPSa

Relievers 3.31 ERA .638 OPSa

 

The starting rotation is looking much better now than those numbers

[Hugh2]

But the bullpen looks legit, and there’s depth, and bullpen talent coming up on the farm, and it could get a boost from the rotation of everyone stays healthy.

 

Jansen still looks elite, and if he’s elite for us for two years that will be…:we’ll just awesome

[Bellhorn04]

The starting rotation is looking much better now than those numbers

 

I think that remains to be seen.

[Hugh2]

I think that remains to be seen.

 

A lot of that ERA is inflated by first starts. Sale gave up 3 home runs his first start. Are we more or less optimistic about him?

 

Whitlock 3 home runs his first start, Crawford 3 home runs his first start.

 

All those guys look much better than their first starts.

 

How much is on Kluber? With a 6 man rotation you think he stays in if Paxton comes back healthy. Addition by subtraction.

 

At the very least. There’s a lot to be optimistic about with this rotation.

[Bellhorn04]

A lot of that ERA is inflated by first starts. Sale gave up 3 home runs his first start. Are we more or less optimistic about him?

 

Whitlock 3 home runs his first start, Crawford 3 home runs his first start.

 

All those guys look much better than their first starts.

 

How much is on Kluber? With a 6 man rotation you think he stays in if Paxton comes back healthy. Addition by subtraction.

 

At the very least. There’s a lot to be optimistic about with this rotation.

 

And Whitlock gave up 5 in 4 last night.

 

I think we'll be evaluating on a game-by-game basis...

[Hugh2]

And Whitlock gave up 5 in 4 last night.

 

I think we'll be evaluating on a game-by-game basis...

 

Yes but he gave up a 3 run homerun to Tellez, you take away that one mistake he didn’t look half bad.

 

The long ball has been a problem for this pitching staff.

 

But it’s not like the were squaring up everything he threw at them like Kluber

[notin]

I think that remains to be seen.

 

I think the rotation looks better lately, but I’m hesitant to say it looks good…

[Bellhorn04]

Yes but he gave up a 3 run homerun to Tellez, you take away that one mistake he didn’t look half bad.

 

I know, but that's baseball. One bad pitch can result in up to 4 runs. It's just how the game is designed. There's a small margin for error.

[Maxbialystock]

I get that, but this sample size is not 21 games.

 

We are talking about 2 games- one with Sale and one with Kluber that are supposed to change our opinions. I know these are not final judgments by anyone.

 

McGuire has better OPS Against numbers with 6 out of 11 pitchers, but the two lopsided sample sizes of Sale (64 to 25 PAs) and Kluber (64 to 19) flip the score to Wong 7 to 6.

 

Even 7-6 is not very convincing. Just my opinion.

 

IMO, and catcher who gets to catch Whitlock and Houck, exclusively should have a better overall CERA.

 

By all means defend McGuire. He's on our team, the Red Sox, for crying out loud. I'm just being a pissant because not catching that third strike--in the strike zone, yet--really torqued me. On the other hand, I'm happy to overlook catcher interference by Wong.

 

You have rightfully pointed to 2b, SS, and CF as bigger problems than whether McGuire is as good as Wong.

 

Actually, Kluber is the leader on my latest s__t list. A $10M wrecking machine.

 

Interesting that Crawford remains in the bullpen. If nothing else, he could be a long reliever. Last night would likely have turned out better if Crawford pitched the 4th-6th innings or longer.

[notin]

A lot of that ERA is inflated by first starts. Sale gave up 3 home runs his first start. Are we more or less optimistic about him?

 

Whitlock 3 home runs his first start, Crawford 3 home runs his first start.

 

All those guys look much better than their first starts.

 

How much is on Kluber? With a 6 man rotation you think he stays in if Paxton comes back healthy. Addition by subtraction.

 

At the very least. There’s a lot to be optimistic about with this rotation.

 

Clearly we all understand the problem with Kluber is McGuire. Reese is holding him back…

[Bellhorn04]

Clearly we all understand the problem with Kluber is McGuire. Reese is holding him back…

 

OK, maybe I'm clutching at straws when I say he might do better with Wong. Maybe that's just my way of being optimistic...