How will the Red Sox do?

[notin]

I don't believe the Sox will play .500 ball this season. Starting pitching will be the major shortcoming.

 

I assume we should draw the same conclusion for the Mets?

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

Hey!!

 

I do the injury jokes. You go back to your word play tie-ins and obscure baseball references!!

 

I know -- what was I drinking?

 

Well, it definitely wasn't the Uncool-Aid Bloom's been trying to sell at the coroner.

[notin]

I know -- what was I drinking?

 

Well, it definitely wasn't the Uncool-Aid Bloom's been trying to sell at the coroner.

 

Better.

 

Stay in your lane…

[Bellhorn04]

I know -- what was I drinking?

 

Well, it definitely wasn't the Uncool-Aid Bloom's been trying to sell at the coroner.

 

"At the coroner" - that's gold, Jerry!

[Bellhorn04]

After 11 games we're back in last place, 6 games behind the Rays, 2 behind the Yanks and Jays.

[Hugh2]

after 11 games, a day ago we had a winning record.

[moonslav59]

After 11 games we're back in last place, 6 games behind the Rays, 2 behind the Yanks and Jays.

 

As bad as we have looked, we are just 2 GB a WC slot, and key players are returning to the roster. (Although losing Duvall kinda squashes that hope, a bit.)

[bkzwhitestrican]

Sox would be in 3rd place in the Central or West. The East has come out very strong. In total their record is 36-19 (65.5% winning percent), and they're 11-2 against the Central (84.6% winning percent) and 9-2 against the West (81.8% winning percent). Of course Tampa is boosting that record quite a bit, but 4 of 5 teams are over .500 and Boston is only one game below .500

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

As bad as we have looked, we are just 2 GB a WC slot, and key players are returning to the roster. (Although losing Duvall kinda squashes that hope, a bit.)

 

So let's envision exactly how this assemblage can compete for a Wild Card. Pitching -- IF the old guys reclaim... let's just say consistent, average, not lights-out but with a mix of quality starts all season, with NO IL stints... and IF the young starters can contribute the same... can the defense support them enough so that the offense can score one more run on most nights???

 

That's praying the bullpen won't burn out, and hoping the O will come around -- at least Yoshida and Casas will improve as they become acclimated and find it. Don't know if we can expect comebacks by vets who may be losing it: Hernandez, Turner, Arroyo (who set a record last night swinging and missing three pitches by three meters).

 

The D is a HUGE IF... arguably weak or below-average at every single position on the field. But I dare say the outfield D is already improved with Refsynder in CF...

[notin]

So let's envision exactly how this assemblage can compete for a Wild Card. Pitching -- IF the old guys reclaim... let's just say consistent, average, not lights-out but with a mix of quality starts all season, with NO IL stints... and IF the young starters can contribute the same... can the defense support them enough so that the offense can score one more run on most nights???

 

That's praying the bullpen won't burn out, and hoping the O will come around -- at least Yoshida and Casas will improve as they become acclimated and find it. Don't know if we can expect comebacks by vets who may be losing it: Hernandez, Turner, Arroyo (who set a record last night swinging and missing three pitches by three meters).

 

The D is a HUGE IF... arguably weak or below-average at every single position on the field. But I dare say the outfield D is already improved with Refsynder in CF...

 

Refsnyder is a big step down from Duvall…

[mvp 78]

Refsnyder is a big step down from Duvall…

 

I'm shocked that Rob Refsnyder in 2023 is playing like Rob Refsnyder.

[Old Red]

I'm shocked that Rob Refsnyder in 2023 is playing like Rob Refsnyder.

 

Are you saying 2022 was a mirage?

[mvp 78]

Are you saying 2022 was a mirage?

 

Career BABIP: 303

2022 BABIP: 394

 

I think he has utility as a platoon bat, but he should not be getting full time reps and the expectations should be that he's hitting at the bottom of the order.

[Old Red]

Career BABIP: 303

2022 BABIP: 394

 

I think he has utility as a platoon bat, but he should not be getting full time reps and the expectations should be that he's hitting at the bottom of the order.

I agree, and if he can’t hit LHP what’s the use in having him? The problem is if no outside help is added the alternative is Tapia, and the Butterfly Man.

[mvp 78]

I agree, and if he can’t hit LHP what’s the use in having him? The problem is if no outside help is added the alternative is Tapia, and the Butterfly Man.

 

Time to get Marcus Wilson back on the 40 man.

[notin]

Career BABIP: 303

2022 BABIP: 394

 

I think he has utility as a platoon bat, but he should not be getting full time reps and the expectations should be that he's hitting at the bottom of the order.

 

He has always had decent splits vs LHP. But that might be where his skills as a Major Leaguer end…

[notin]

Time to get Marcus Wilson back on the 40 man.

 

Narciso Time!!!

[mvp 78]

He has always had decent splits vs LHP. But that might be where his skills as a Major Leaguer end…

 

Platoon him vs LHP in away games as a corner OFer? How often can you do that?

[mvp 78]

Narciso Time!!!

 

WOO made some money off Fitzy merch last year. Maybe Henry needs to some of that rub this go around?

[notin]

WOO made some money off Fitzy merch last year. Maybe Henry needs to some of that rub this go around?

 

I do think a Jersey that says CROOK on the back might be a statement-making financial surprise…

[moonslav59]

So let's envision exactly how this assemblage can compete for a Wild Card. Pitching -- IF the old guys reclaim... let's just say consistent, average, not lights-out but with a mix of quality starts all season, with NO IL stints... and IF the young starters can contribute the same... can the defense support them enough so that the offense can score one more run on most nights???

 

That's praying the bullpen won't burn out, and hoping the O will come around -- at least Yoshida and Casas will improve as they become acclimated and find it. Don't know if we can expect comebacks by vets who may be losing it: Hernandez, Turner, Arroyo (who set a record last night swinging and missing three pitches by three meters).

 

The D is a HUGE IF... arguably weak or below-average at every single position on the field. But I dare say the outfield D is already improved with Refsynder in CF...

 

SP: I like the fact that we have 6 decent or promising pitchers to choose from, and I'm not counting Houck (Sale, Whitlock, Kluber, Bello, Pivetta & Paxton). I like the chances 1 or 2 from Winckowski, Mata, Crawford, Walter or Murphy can step in and do alright, if we need more than those 6-7. Our starters have not looked good, so far, but I still have hopes.

 

Pen: I think this pen is a good one, especially, if we can keep Houck in the long role, all year. Maybe Wink can keep this up. We have several pitchers who can go more than 1 IP and the nest closer since Kimbrel. Pens are fickle, so it's hard to predict anything, but it looks good on paper, especially if we can bring back some pitchers and lessen the leverage innings Brasier, Ort and Kelly get.

 

Offense: Even without Duvall and Story, our offense should be top 10. That may not be enough to outweigh the bottom 10 D, but if and when Story and Mondesi return, we may be able to improve our O and D.

 

Defense: It's hard to find anything good to say. If we can get Kike back to CF and Story at 2B, it would help a lot, but we'd still be bottom 15.

 

I've not given up on Kike, Casas, Turner and our catchers, but they need to start turning things around, before the tone is set and we are too far behind to make a move. I think they can and will, but maybe I'm just a homer.

 

[moonslav59]

Career BABIP: 303

2022 BABIP: 394

 

I think he has utility as a platoon bat, but he should not be getting full time reps and the expectations should be that he's hitting at the bottom of the order.

 

While I agree BAbip numbers have real meaning, and Ref was likely helped by some luck, last year, there can be other reasons why a batter, suddenly has a good year- like he actually hits the ball harder than his norm.

 

Refsnyder

LD% 28.2 in 2022 - below 22.9 other years combined

Hard Hit% 37.3 in '22 and under 30.2 the rest of his seasons combined.

 

Another oddity that is a bit eye-opening. His career L-R splits are significant:

 

.717 v LHP (380 PAs) almost the same sample size as vs RHPs 47%

.631 v RHP (434 PAs) 53% of career PAs, including 2022

 

2022:

1.005 v LHP (73 PAs) was only 41% of his PAs vs 48% other seasons combined

.792 v RHP (104 PAs) 59%

 

He faced more RHPs than his norm, hit the ball way harder than his norm, and had better numbers.

 

I think he does deserve some credit.

 

Will he continue like 2022? Who knows?

 

[moonslav59]

He has always had decent splits vs LHP. But that might be where his skills as a Major Leaguer end…

 

He did hit .792 v LHPs in 2022 and faced them in 59% of his PAs, which is more than he had before.

 

Maybe it was luck: maybe hitting the ball harder than his norm had something to do with it.

[mvp 78]

While I agree BAbip numbers have real meaning, and Ref was likely helped by some luck, last year, there can be other reasons why a batter, suddenly has a good year- like he actually hits the ball harder than his norm.

 

Refsnyder

LD% 28.2 in 2022 - below 22.9 other years combined

Hard Hit% 37.3 in '22 and under 30.2 the rest of his seasons combined.

 

Another oddity that is a bit eye-opening. His career L-R splits are significant:

 

.717 v LHP (380 PAs) almost the same sample size as vs RHPs 47%

.631 v RHP (434 PAs) 53% of career PAs, including 2022

 

2022:

1.005 v LHP (73 PAs) was only 41% of his PAs vs 48% other seasons combined

.792 v RHP (104 PAs) 59%

 

He faced more RHPs than his norm, hit the ball way harder than his norm, and had better numbers.

 

I think he does deserve some credit.

 

Will he continue like 2022? Who knows?

 

 

No, it won’t continue. Duh.

[Bellhorn04]

71-91

[Old Red]

71-91

 

Oh no! Say it ain’t so! Someone would have a lot of explaining to do Lucy.

[Bellhorn04]

Oh no! Say it ain’t so!

 

I'm rarely this pessimistic this early. But this team is awful. Shame on Henry and Bloom for this miserable offseason they just pulled off. Time for Henry to sell the team.

[Old Red]

I'm rarely this pessimistic this early. But this team is awful. Shame on Henry and Bloom for this miserable offseason they just pulled off. Time for Henry to sell the team.

I agree with you that the team wasn’t put together very well (again) especially up the middle. A SS who has never played SS FT, a 2B who can handle the position, but has never been healthy enough to do so, and a CF who is better suited for a corner OF, and has never been a FT CF. Also two backup C with not a lot of experience. Not a good way to put a team together, and that’s just on the D side.

[Bellhorn04]

I agree with you that the team wasn’t put together very well (again) especially up the middle. A SS who has never played SS FT, a 2B who can handle the position, but has never been healthy enough to do so, and a CF who is better suited for a corner OF, and has never been a FT CF. Also two backup C with not a lot of experience. Not a good way to put a team together, and that’s just on the D side.

 

And it's rather comical that Bloom would acquire Mondesi to shore up the middle when the guy won't be able to play for at least 2 months. Good old Chaim, always looking ahead. Meanwhile we have Bobby Dalbec playing short. Crazy stuff.

[Old Red]

And it's rather comical that Bloom would acquire Mondesi to shore up the middle when the guy won't be able to play for at least 2 months. Good old Chaim, always looking ahead. Meanwhile we have Bobby Dalbec playing short. Crazy stuff.

 

Would it hurt to bring Hamilton up to play SS? He played most of the games at SS for Worcester so far. He might even get on base, and get a steal, or two. If he’s not good enough to come up now with the hole the Red Sox have at SS then he probably never will.