A Realistic View of 2023: Part II

[sk7326]

2022 Dodgers 111 wins 116 Pythagorean wins

2022 Phillies 87 wins 87 Pythagorean wins

2022 NL champs Phillies

 

If that ain't a crapshoot I don't know what is. A 24 win difference and a 29 win Pythagorean difference.

 

The MLB playoff system is more crap-shooty all the time.

 

Once you see an 83-78 team win the World Series - you just have to throw your hands up in the air. But that's what makes it all fun too.

[Bellhorn04]

Lots of ifs. I just don't see it. Houck and Whitlock have been neither healthy nor effective, and Sale has barely pitched the last three years. The fact that The Big Injury has pitched this much is a minor miracle. Maybe I'm the negative Nancy?

 

No, you're not a negative Nancy. The health of pitchers is the biggest crapshoot of them all. And the greatest sustainability model in the world won't change that.

[Old Red]

Lots of ifs. I just don't see it. Houck and Whitlock have been neither healthy nor effective, and Sale has barely pitched the last three years. The fact that The Big Injury has pitched this much is a minor miracle. Maybe I'm the negative Nancy?

 

Bingo on Nancy!

[Dipre]

Bingo on Nancy!

 

That's a loser attitude.

[Old Red]

Lots of ifs. I just don't see it. Houck and Whitlock have been neither healthy nor effective, and Sale has barely pitched the last three years. The fact that The Big Injury has pitched this much is a minor miracle. Maybe I'm the negative Nancy?

 

As I’ve said the last two years Houck, and Whitlock should have stayed in the BP. Two years of starting for Whit, and two years of injuries. Frail is Frail, so a bad plan all the way around.

[Old Red]

That's a loser attitude.

 

Playing down to the level of competition.

[Dipre]

Playing down to the level of competition.

 

Even more of a loser attitude.

[moonslav59]

I haven’t watched in a month now.

 

I rescind my apology for questioning your Sox fandom.

[Old Red]

I rescind my apology for questioning your Sox fandom.

 

As I have said it’s not because of the Red Sox, but baseball in general.

[mvp 78]

On another note, my boy Triston Casas appeared in MLB.COM's Hitter Power Rankings for the first (and certainly not the last) time in his young career.

 

Old Red's boy! He's a long time fan.

[Randy Red Sox]

Bloom was asleep during the deadline so there was no chance of getting Flaherty

But IF Sale was healthy and we got Flaherty...Sale, Paxton, Bello and Flaherty could be a pretty decent four.

 

Needless to say there's a pile of Injury Luck involved.

[Dipre]

Bloom was asleep during the deadline so there was no chance of getting Flaherty

 

First start notwithstanding, Flaherty isn't particularly good. Try to keep up.

[Old Red]

Old Red's boy! He's a long time fan.

 

I’ll admit he’s gotten better, but he pretty much didn’t have much more lower to go. We’ll see how he finishes out the year, but I’m not ready to give him an Atlanta Braves type contract yet.

[moonslav59]

Old Red's boy! He's a long time fan.

 

He wanted him sat down for a while 3 weeks before calling the "suspect" his "boy."

[Dipre]

I’ll admit he’s gotten better, but he pretty much didn’t have much more lower to go. We’ll see how he finishes out the year, but I’m not ready to give him an Atlanta Braves type contract yet.

 

Wat

[Bellhorn04]

First start notwithstanding, Flaherty isn't particularly good.

 

He's not a stud but he's above average when healthy.

 

Which starting pitchers do you actually like?

[Dipre]

He's not a stud but he's above average when healthy.

 

Which starting pitchers do you actually like?

 

Of the ones traded? That's kinda the point. I would've rolled the dice on Verlander, assuming he's an outlier and a freak of nature. I think he'll sustain a lot of his value next year health permitting, but he was never coming to the Red Sox.

[mvp 78]

He's not a stud but he's above average when healthy.

 

Which starting pitchers do you actually like?

 

This year:

12th percentile chase rate

16th percentile bb rate

29th percentile xERA (xERA has been below 30 since 2020)

 

I don't see Bloom going for that bb rate. He looked good earlier in his career, but has really fallen apart lately.

[Bellhorn04]

Of the ones traded? That's kinda the point. I would've rolled the dice on Verlander, assuming he's an outlier and a freak of nature. I think he'll sustain a lot of his value next year health permitting, but he was never coming to the Red Sox.

 

There don't seem to be many pitchers who aren't dice rolls. Gerrit Cole hasn't been, but he cost $324 million.

[Dipre]

There don't seem to be many pitchers who aren't dice rolls. Gerrit Cole hasn't been, but he cost $324 million.

 

I doubt he'll be worth his entire contract.

[Bellhorn04]

This year:

12th percentile chase rate

16th percentile bb rate

29th percentile xERA (xERA has been below 30 since 2020)

 

I don't see Bloom going for that bb rate. He looked good earlier in his career, but has really fallen apart lately.

 

No worries, Bloom passed on every available starter. He's extremely adept at that.

[Bellhorn04]

I doubt he'll be worth his entire contract.

 

Point out one who will be.

[Dipre]

Point out one who will be.

 

Long-term contract for pitchers almost never work out. Scherzer's initial one with the Nats was damn good though.

[Old Red]

He wanted him sat down for a while 3 weeks before calling the "suspect" his "boy."

 

Yes I did, and shipped back to Worcester too. Like I said he’s gotten better, and if he finishes strong I’ll say I was wrong. He still has a way to go to live up to all his hype, but time will tell.

[Dipre]

Yes I did, and shipped back to Worcester too. Like I said he’s gotten better, and if he finishes strong I’ll say I was wrong. He still has a way to go to live up to all his hype, but time will tell.

 

That's a loser attitude. Casas is the next great Red Sox hitter.

[Old Red]

That's a loser attitude. Casas is the next great Red Sox hitter.

 

Like I said time will tell.

[mvp 78]

There don't seem to be many pitchers who aren't dice rolls. Gerrit Cole hasn't been, but he cost $324 million.

 

And he's overpaid per FanGraphs. His AAV is 36M, but was only worth 26M last year.

[mvp 78]

No worries, Bloom passed on every available starter. He's extremely adept at that.

 

If he picked one, it would have been an underwhelming option at best.

[mvp 78]

Long-term contract for pitchers almost never work out. Scherzer's initial one with the Nats was damn good though.

 

That one was definitely a steal.

[Bellhorn04]

Long-term contract for pitchers almost never work out. Scherzer's initial one with the Nats was damn good though.

 

If we're not going to sign any pitchers to long-term contracts, what's our 2024 rotation going to look like?

 

Should Bloom just sign some more 1 year $10 million types?