A Realistic View of 2023: Part II

[notin]

What about notin's guy Giolito as a free agent?

 

Sadly the White Sox are white hot of late, and anything above tepid keeps you in the thick of the AL Central…

[moonslav59]

So $1M per start for Kluber.

 

No freakin way the Rays would have done it. This is exactly why Kluber was availabe.

 

I just wished we stop pissing away money.

 

They did pay Charlie Morton $1.67M per start in 2020... LOL. (9 starts in that short year.)

4.73 ERA

[moonslav59]

Sadly the White Sox are white hot of late, and anything above tepid keeps you in the thick of the AL Central…

 

I don't think being "in it" will matter. I think he'll be traded.

 

[moonslav59]

These teams will likely be out of it at the deadline:

 

BTV Values on Pitchers and other players of interest (some listed as salary dumps to offset the return needed to acquire)

 

BTV Player Position and yrs of control

 

OAK

12.9 Waldichuck SP 5+ yrs

16.6 Ruiz OF 5+

9.7 Laureano OF 2+

-7.3 Diaz UTL 1+

 

KCR

45.1 Singer SP 3+

14.4 Lynch SP 4+

11.5 Barlow RP 1+

-14.1 Dozier 1B 2+

-9.7 Lyles SP 1+

 

CWS

61.5 Cease SP 2+

20.8 Giolito SP .7

28.1 Anderson SS1+

10.3 Kopech SP 2+

-26.2 Beni LF 4+

-9.2 Jimenez OF 3+

 

DET

23.0 Manning SP 4+

23.0 Skubal SP 3+

13.0 Turnbull SP 1+

-31.8 Baez SS 4+

 

WSH

29.8 Gray SP 4+

27.4 Gore SP 4+

26.5 Abrams SS 5+

-40.7 Corbin SP 1+

-124.4 Strasburg SP 3+

 

CIN

48.3 Lodolo LHP 6+

30.2 Ashcraft SP 5+

-25.9 Votto 1B 1+

 

COL

Don't see anyone.

 

CHC

32.5 Steele LHP 4+

11.8 Stroman SP 1+

-21.4 Taillon SP 3+

 

 

These may be sellers, if out by then:

CLE

SEA

MIA

PIT

SFG

STL

LAA

SDP

PHI

[Bellhorn04]

They did pay Charlie Morton $1.67M per start in 2020... LOL. (9 starts in that short year.)

4.73 ERA

 

2020 salaries were pro-rated.

[Bellhorn04]

After 50 games we're 2 games over .500 with a run differential of +7. We win some, we lose some. Yuck.

[notin]

After 50 games we're 2 games over .500 with a run differential of +7. We win some, we lose some. Yuck.

 

We’re also 50 games into the season and have only played like 12 games against teams under .500…

[moonslav59]

We’re also 50 games into the season and have only played like 12 games against teams under .500…

 

This is important, but we will have to beat those bad teams and badly.

[Bellhorn04]

We’re also 50 games into the season and have only played like 12 games against teams under .500…

 

Not sure that's the difference-maker it's made out to be. Look what happened against St. Louis.

 

There are 2-3 truly horrific teams in MLB this year and the rest are competitive.

[moonslav59]

Not sure that's the difference-maker it's made out to be. Look what happened against St. Louis.

 

There are 2-3 truly horrific teams in MLB this year and the rest are competitive.

 

Good assessment, but I still like our odds against a .450 team vs a .550 one.

[mvp 78]

Not sure that's the difference-maker it's made out to be. Look what happened against St. Louis.

 

There are 2-3 truly horrific teams in MLB this year and the rest are competitive.

 

STL was a good team with a bad record. Because these Sox are a WC "competitive" team, they will have lots of series where they look a little outmatched. They aren't the buzzsaw they once were.

[jad]

We’re also 50 games into the season and have only played like 12 games against teams under .500…

 

Maybe the reason so many RS opponents are over .500 is because they have played so many games against the RS?

[Bellhorn04]

Maybe the reason so many RS opponents are over .500 is because they have played so many games against the RS?

 

No. We're over .500 too. Let's not get carried away.

[mvp 78]

Maybe the reason so many RS opponents are over .500 is because they have played so many games against the RS?

 

Uh, Sox are currently ABOVE .500...

[Bellhorn04]

STL was a good team with a bad record.

 

It's not who you play, it's when you play 'em...

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

It's not who you play, it's when you play 'em...

 

You're getting good at this...

 

(except for Oakland, then the when is 2023)

[Nick]

The last place team in NL is only 4 games out of last wild card spot.

[moonslav59]

Uh, Sox are currently ABOVE .500...

 

...and almost .500 vs >.500 teams (17-18.)

[Nick]

6 worst records are owned by the Reds, the White Sox, the Rockies, the Royals, the Nationals and the A's.

 

We have not played a single game vs any of them.

[mvp 78]

It's not who you play, it's when you play 'em...

 

Comparing the Cards and the Sox fWAR

 

Sox Batting 11th

Sox Starting Pitching 27th

Sox Relief Pitching 18th

 

Cards Batting 3rd

Cards Starting Pitching 23rd

Cards Relief Pitching 10th

[moonslav59]

6 worst records are owned by the Reds, the White Sox, the Rockies, the Royals, the Nationals and the A's.

 

We have not played a single game vs any of them.

 

We will play these teams 28 times in our last 112 games (25% exactly)

 

7 KCR

6 OAK

6 CWS

3 CIN

3 COL

3 WSH

 

We also have ....

3 DET

3 MIA

3 CHC

3 SFG

 

Currently, we are

 

2-1 7th worst CLE

0-3 8th worst STL

2-1 9th worst SDP

n/a 10th worst CHC

3-0 11th worst DET

2-1 12th PHI

n/a 13th worst SFG

n/a 14th NYM

n/a 15th MIA

2-1 16th SEA

[sk7326]

We have yet to know if Bloom can...

 

We know the Sox can afford one...

 

But we don't even know if we can identify one...

 

Is Ohtani a good investment -- a guy whose pitching career could end suddenly in a number of ways that a non-batter/baserunner can't?

 

Is Urias a good investment -- about to enter his prime?

 

Is someone on the trading block worth four of our top prospects?

 

Ohtani is a tough eval - but I doubt he will be a bust simply because he is such a devastating hitter. While you lose value if he can't pitch anymore - his athleticism and bat likely still keeps him as a pretty good corner OF.

[moonslav59]

The Sox currently are tied with TOR & MIN for the 11th best record in MLB at 26-24 (.520.)

 

We let the Angels pass us in the WC race:

 

+4.0 BAL

+1.0 NYY

0.0 HOU

-1.0 LAA

-2.5 BOS

-2.5 TOR

-3.0 SEA

 

Gotta turn things around v AZ.

[notin]

Maybe the reason so many RS opponents are over .500 is because they have played so many games against the RS?

 

The only team the Sox have played so far that’s over .500 whose wins against Boston make the difference is Pittsburgh, who is 25-24 but 3-0 vs Boston.

 

And Pitt was white hot at the time, beating up on lots of teams…

[notin]

STL was a good team with a bad record. Because these Sox are a WC "competitive" team, they will have lots of series where they look a little outmatched. They aren't the buzzsaw they once were.

 

My daughter has theorized St. Louis has always been a mediocre team, but this year is a victim of the new balanced schedule. And that their successes in recent years were built on playing 57 games (over 1/3 of their schedule) against the Cubs, Reds, and Pirates…

[moonslav59]

The only team the Sox have played so far that’s over .500 whose wins against Boston make the difference is Pittsburgh, who is 25-24 but 3-0 vs Boston.

 

And Pitt was white hot at the time, beating up on lots of teams…

 

...and DET would be 22-22 had they not been swept by the Sox.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

Ohtani is a tough eval - but I doubt he will be a bust simply because he is such a devastating hitter. While you lose value if he can't pitch anymore - his athleticism and bat likely still keeps him as a pretty good corner OF.

 

Agreed, but a projected half-a-billion dollar contract would seem exorbitant in Bloom's Boston... can you even see him spending that much on two separate free agents -- a pitcher and a hitter?

[mvp 78]

My daughter has theorized St. Louis has always been a mediocre team, but this year is a victim of the new balanced schedule. And that their successes in recent years were built on playing 57 games (over 1/3 of their schedule) against the Cubs, Reds, and Pirates…

 

IDK, that offense is really good. I'd take a lot of those young guys.

[mvp 78]

agreed, but a projected half-a-billion dollar contract would seem exorbitant in bloom's boston... Can you even see him spending that much on two separate free agents -- a pitcher and a hitter?

 

600m.

[notin]

My daughter has theorized St. Louis has always been a mediocre team, but this year is a victim of the new balanced schedule. And that their successes in recent years were built on playing 57 games (over 1/3 of their schedule) against the Cubs, Reds, and Pirates…

 

Follow up St Louis record overall and minus those teams

 

2022 93-69 / 62-43

2021 90-72 / 52-53

2020 30-28 / 13-15

20-9 91-71 / 55-50

 

Outside of 2022, she may not be wrong…