A Realistic View of 2023: Part II

[Bellhorn04]

I meant in 2021, instead of the guys we signed.

 

About this year's signings, for every Gausman and Bassitt, there are 2 or more Rodon & Verlanders.

 

Good HOBOs, especially ones from the Rays org, are supposed to be a little better than average at making the picks.

 

Also, it's a tad early to write off Verlander.

[notin]

Jays signings of Gausman for 5/110 and Bassitt for 3/63 look very good right now. Their combined AAV of 43 million is not chicken feed, but a total risk of 173 million seems reasonable by today's standards.

 

Gausman certainly looked questionable at the time and Bassitt gave mixed emotions, at least with me. But if Bloom was holding out for off-season with Ohtani, Urias, Giolito, Montgomery, Snell, and Nola along with some potential reclamation projects like Flaherty, Marquez, Clevinger, Montas and Severino (please not the last two).

 

Some of them will certainly be extended (Nola? Montgomery?). But certainly not all…

[moonslav59]

Good HOBOs, especially ones from the Rays org, are supposed to be a little better than average at making the picks.

 

Also, it's a tad early to write off Verlander.

 

I have said this has been one of my disappointments with Bloom. I think a major reason we hired him was the rays track record at finding low-priced players who perform above expectations, because we knew the budgets were going to be tight for a few years.

 

He did find a few: Arroyo, Kike I, Renfroe, Schreiber, Refsnyder, Whitlock and a few others- some off to good starts, this year, but not as much as I expected. Too few were pitchers, although Wacha, hill and Strahm looked good, last year, and Wink has turned it around, so far.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

Gausman certainly looked questionable at the time and Bassitt gave mixed emotions, at least with me. But if Bloom was holding out for off-season with Ohtani, Urias, Giolito, Montgomery, Snell, and Nola along with some potential reclamation projects like Flaherty, Marquez, Clevinger, Montas and Severino (please not the last two).

 

Some of them will certainly be extended (Nola? Montgomery?). But certainly not all…

 

And yet, what separates Toronto from Boston, maybe not in the standings quite yet, but in most, if not all, season outlooks? It's not the offense, because even though the Jays have a few young star hitters, the Sox score more runs per game with a higher batting average.

 

Count me as in on some of those of the next winter starters, because we have to start somewhere. But I have no reason to think Bloom will suddenly be competitive for any #1 or #2 guys, because he's never been. Maybe it's just his own policy.

 

Remember, Eflin -- his supposed below-market find and a pitcher with starter upside -- threw exclusively out of the bullpen in the postseason for an NL team that made the World Series, with 10 relief appearances. Now he's 5-1, 3.38, in 7 starts for the AL pacesetter.

[mvp 78]

Jays signings of Gausman for 5/110 and Bassitt for 3/63 look very good right now. Their combined AAV of 43 million is not chicken feed, but a total risk of 173 million seems reasonable by today's standards.

 

Bassitt's QO was tough. I can see why the Sox didn't want that.

 

Gausman wasn't attached to a QO that offseason he was a FA.

[Bellhorn04]

Gausman certainly looked questionable at the time and Bassitt gave mixed emotions, at least with me. But if Bloom was holding out for off-season with Ohtani, Urias, Giolito, Montgomery, Snell, and Nola along with some potential reclamation projects like Flaherty, Marquez, Clevinger, Montas and Severino (please not the last two).

 

Wait till next year!

[notin]

Wait till next year!

 

Are we winning now or not?

 

I would prefer Giolito next year over Bassitt today.

 

Giolito in August (and extended) is even better…

[Bellhorn04]

Are we winning now or not?

 

Yes, but certainly not because of our rotation.

 

And that's likely where we'll be pointing if we miss the playoffs.

[moonslav59]

Gausman was certainly a viable option, and there were a few posters who suggested we try hard to sign him. I don't see him as an ace, but he is certainly a big step up from the Klubers, Richards and Perezes of the world.

 

$22M was not a ton of money, and 5 years is not the 7 we gave Price.

 

At this point in the Sox budget outlook, I don't think the 5 years would be a major concern. They could have done it, but I think they just didn't value him that highly, or near enough to overpay by a little more than what they felt he was worth.

 

In hindsight, we could have paid the $22M and reset by not signing ...

$10M Kluber

$7M Duvall

and maybe no Mondesi trade or Joely signing.

 

I believe this would have left us very close to the tax line, depending on what site you use.

 

Had we known Duran would look like this, no Duvall would have been a serious option.

[moonslav59]

Are we winning now or not?

 

I would prefer Giolito next year over Bassitt today.

 

Giolito in August (and extended) is even better…

 

That's what I think it came down to. Not so much the money, but the belief that last winter did not have "the right guy."

 

Does Bloom like Giolito? Who knows? Maybe someone else. Nobody mentioned Eflin, before the reports came out on the near miss.

 

Maybe we trade for someone at the deadline or next winter.

[mvp 78]

Nobody mentioned Eflin, before the reports came out on the near miss.

 

Yes, none of us are in Bloom's brain. We don't really know what he's going to do.

[moonslav59]

Yes, none of us are in Bloom's brain. We don't really know what he's going to do.

 

It seems like a lot of his "near misses" have gone on to do well. Also, some of the guys he liked and acquired, but then did not keep have gone on to do better, elsewhere- like Springs and Perez.

 

I'm not sure we can read into this all that much, and we probably don't know all the players he was "seriously" pursuing. Also, there are apparent flops like Abreu that could be added to a list that counters my claim.

[mvp 78]

It seems like a lot of his "near misses" have gone on to do well. Also, some of the guys he liked and acquired, but then did not keep have gone on to do better, elsewhere- like Springs and Perez.

 

I'm not sure we can read into this all that much, and we probably don't know all the players he was "seriously" pursuing. Also, there are apparent flops like Abreu that could be added to a list that counters my claim.

 

We can be thankful they didn't get their number 1 priority Jose Abreu (531 OPS).

[moonslav59]

As well as our team has hit, we've spread it out pretty well.

 

We have no batters in the top 30 in OPS with over 110 PAs.

 

If we set the bar at 110 PAs, who would have expected this Sox leader board?

 

5. Duran 1.006

36. Yoshida .881

37. Verdugo .877

(42. Betts .869)

64. Devers .828

(77. Bogey .806)

87. Turner .795

(89. Renfroe .790)

(91. JD .786)

148. Casas .705

(.696 Beni)

194. Kike .647

(220. Abreu .531)

 

[Bellhorn04]

No one expects the Spanish Inquisition.

[moonslav59]

2022 and 2023 OPS Leaders (split seasons) 50+ PAs

Red= 2023

 

1.006 Duran

.881 Yoshida

.881 Refsnyder

.879 Devers

.877 Verdugo

.877 McGuire

.833 Bogey

.828 Devers

.795 Turner

.790 JD

.783 EValdez

.766 Casas

.759 Vaz

.748 Refsnyder

.737 Story

.736 Arroyo

.732 Verdugo

.705 Casas

.701 Wong

.697 Cordero

.672 Pham

.668 Tapia

.667 McGuire

.660 Arroyo

.652 Dalbec

.647 Kike

.645 Duran

.631 Hosmer

.629 Kike

.585 Wong

.578 JBJ

.574 Plawecki

 

Edited May 19, 2023 by moonslav59

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

No one expects the Spanish Inquisition.

 

Porque?

[moonslav59]

We can be thankful they didn't get their number 1 priority Jose Abreu (531 OPS).

 

The Houston area talkshows are going nutty over that signing.

[moonslav59]

Porque?

 

This site is so good at re-enacting it!

[Maxbialystock]

This site is so good at re-enacting it!

 

Good catch.

[moonslav59]

2022 and 2023 OPS Leaders (split seasons) 50+ PAs

Red= 2023

 

1.006 Duran

.881 Yoshida

.881 Refsnyder

.879 Devers

.877 Verdugo

.877 McGuire

.833 Bogey

.828 Devers

.795 Turner

.790 JD

.783 EValdez

.766 Casas

.759 Vaz

.748 Refsnyder

.737 Story

.736 Arroyo

.732 Verdugo

.705 Casas

.701 Wong

.697 Cordero

.672 Pham

.668 Tapia

.667 McGuire

.660 Arroyo

.652 Dalbec

.647 Kike

.645 Duran

.631 Hosmer

.629 Kike

.585 Wong

.578 JBJ

.574 Plawecki

 

 

The smaller sample sizes sure help skew this list, but you'd expect more 2023's at the bottom of the list, too.

 

It is kind of surprising to see that 5 of the top 6 OPS are not from Devers, Bogey or JD:

 

Duran

Yoshida

Ref '22

Devers '22

McGuire '22

Verdugo

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

2022 and 2023 OPS Leaders (split seasons) 50+ PAs

Red= 2023

 

1.006 Duran

.881 Yoshida

.881 Refsnyder

.879 Devers

.877 Verdugo

.877 McGuire

.833 Bogey

.828 Devers

.795 Turner

.790 JD

.783 EValdez

.766 Casas

.759 Vaz

.748 Refsnyder

.737 Story

.736 Arroyo

.732 Verdugo

.705 Casas

.701 Wong

.697 Cordero

.672 Pham

.668 Tapia

.667 McGuire

.660 Arroyo

.652 Dalbec

.647 Kike

.645 Duran

.631 Hosmer

.629 Kike

.585 Wong

.578 JBJ

.574 Plawecki

 

 

The Sox are 24-20. No shift, juicier ball, but the main reason: new faces.

 

Devers leads the club with 38 strikeouts. For those pining for the return of Story, through his first 44 games last year he whiffed 60 times.

 

Through the end of last May, JD and Bogie each had 44 Ks, Dalbec 38, Bradley 34.

 

Yoshida has 15 in 160 PA in '23... last year at this time, Franchy had 20 in 83 PA.

[Bellhorn04]

The Houston area talkshows are going nutty over that signing.

 

So they're as bad as us, in other words.

[moonslav59]

So they're as bad as us, in other words.

 

I don't read game threads, which is worse than what people say on air.

 

The show hosts seem to defend keeping him in the line-up, but just moving him down.

 

Abreu has zero HRs. He's hitting .220 and his SLG is .262. WOW!

[Maxbialystock]

Since the title of this thread is "A Realistic View of the 2023, Part II," I thought I would offer the following insight (if indeed it is one) into Chaim Bloom, the object of the ongoing Spanish Inquisition.

 

This comes from wikipedia, whose writers (always unknown) give him tons of credit for making the Rays very successful at fielding good teams on low budgets.

 

However, nowhere in there does it say Chaim Bloom was responsible for or good at "buying" players or making big/good trades.

 

Nope. It says his forte was developing players once they came into the Rays system, and apparently he was pretty good at it, as are those who followed him. The current Rays team has the 3d lowest payroll in MLB and fields a teams with a .750 winning percentage. When the Sox played the Rays four times at the Trop, I thought the difference in skill levels--in all phases of the game (hitting, pitching, fielding, baserunning)--between the Rays and the Sox was significant. The Rays were also pretty good when CB was there, 2005-2019.

 

The Rays hired him in 2005, and he became Director of Minor League Operations in 2008, Director of Baseball Operations in 2011, and Vice President of Baseball Operations in 2014 until coming to the Sox in 2019. 14 years.

 

From the above, I suppose all the criticism of Bloom is merited because it's based almost entirely on his acquisitions, which he has apparently never done before. Indeed, if his 14 years with the Rays convinced him of nothing else, it convinced him that buying pitching--and paying big bucks--is money ill spent.

 

The perfect example of that is David Price, who came up through the Rays system--the one Chaim Bloom developed--and was hugely successful, including the Cy Young in 2012 while still pitching with the Rays. Then he got the big bucks as a free agent and pitched for the Tigers and especially the Sox, where DD gave him that long term $30M/year contract. His best years were with the Rays, where his total salary from 2008 thru 2014 was just a tad over $30M.

 

I think most everyone has read moonslav's prescient compilation of how the Boston Red Sox have been almost complete failures at developing good pitchers since 1999 and that their solution--which has worked well--was simply to buy good pitching, almost regardless of price/Price.

 

And that, by golly, is what everyone, including moonslav, expects Bloom to do now--spend big for pitching and screw the development stuff. DD was great at that and did it without any hesitation--and produced maybe the best Sox team ever in 2018. Of course, that same team completely collapsed in 2019, but what the heck. Development takes much too long, plus it's not our money being spent on good arms.

[moonslav59]

The Sox are 24-20. No shift, juicier ball, but the main reason: new faces.

 

Devers leads the club with 38 strikeouts. For those pining for the return of Story, through his first 44 games last year he whiffed 60 times.

 

Through the end of last May, JD and Bogie each had 44 Ks, Dalbec 38, Bradley 34.

 

Yoshida has 15 in 160 PA in '23... last year at this time, Franchy had 20 in 83 PA.

 

I've never been too concerned about high K's unless the guy sucks.

 

Bogey has really dropped off, after his hot start.

 

1.093 after 54 PAs

 

.993 after 94 PAs

.606 in his last 93 PAs

 

[moonslav59]

Since the title of this thread is "A Realistic View of the 2023, Part II," I thought I would offer the following insight (if indeed it is one) into Chaim Bloom, the object of the ongoing Spanish Inquisition.

 

This comes from wikipedia, whose writers (always unknown) give him tons of credit for making the Rays very successful at fielding good teams on low budgets.

 

However, nowhere in there does it say Chaim Bloom was responsible for or good at "buying" players or making big/good trades.

 

Nope. It says his forte was developing players once they came into the Rays system, and apparently he was pretty good at it, as are those who followed him. The current Rays team has the 3d lowest payroll in MLB and fields a teams with a .750 winning percentage. When the Sox played the Rays four times at the Trop, I thought the difference in skill levels--in all phases of the game (hitting, pitching, fielding, baserunning)--between the Rays and the Sox was significant. The Rays were also pretty good when CB was there, 2005-2019.

 

The Rays hired him in 2005, and he became Director of Minor League Operations in 2008, Director of Baseball Operations in 2011, and Vice President of Baseball Operations in 2014 until coming to the Sox in 2019. 14 years.

 

From the above, I suppose all the criticism of Bloom is merited because it's based almost entirely on his acquisitions, which he has apparently never done before. Indeed, if his 14 years with the Rays convinced him of nothing else, it convinced him that buying pitching--and paying big bucks--is money ill spent.

 

The perfect example of that is David Price, who came up through the Rays system--the one Chaim Bloom developed--and was hugely successful, including the Cy Young in 2012 while still pitching with the Rays. Then he got the big bucks as a free agent and pitched for the Tigers and especially the Sox, where DD gave him that long term $30M/year contract. His best years were with the Rays, where his total salary from 2008 thru 2014 was just a tad over $30M.

 

I think most everyone has read moonslav's prescient compilation of how the Boston Red Sox have been almost complete failures at developing good pitchers since 1999 and that their solution--which has worked well--was simply to buy good pitching, almost regardless of price/Price.

 

And that, by golly, is what everyone, including moonslav, expects Bloom to do now--spend big for pitching and screw the development stuff. DD was great at that and did it without any hesitation--and produced maybe the best Sox team ever in 2018. Of course, that same team completely collapsed in 2019, but what the heck. Development takes much too long, plus it's not our money being spent on good arms.

 

I don't disagree with any of this, but one would think he'd have picked up some knowledge on identifying and acquiring players and prospects.

 

He also, literally "wrote the book" on the "Ray's Way."

 

https://vault.si.com/vault/2013/04/01/the-rays-way

 

I, for one, do not think he has done a bad a job as many seem to think he has at acquiring low cost players. After the massive and mandated budget cuts after 2019- a year that had already exposed the holes on the roster, he had a lot of work to do, and precious few dollars to do it.

 

Getting guys like Renfroe (that the Rays had non-tendered), Kike I, Arroyo, Schreiber, Refsnyder, Whitlock, Wink and later Wacha, Hill, Strahm and others is not bad.

 

Sure, he flopped on Richards, Perez, Marwin, Diekman and others, but you get what you pay for, and he had to pay squat and often got squat.

 

Did he build the farm and improve player development, especially pitching? It's too early to know.

 

We do know he did not trade away 20 prospects that were or once were top 20 prospects like DD did, and soon he may need to trade some, but his 4-5 year plan is almost up.

[Nick]

The Sox are 24-20. No shift, juicier ball, but the main reason: new faces.

 

Devers leads the club with 38 strikeouts. For those pining for the return of Story, through his first 44 games last year he whiffed 60 times.

 

Through the end of last May, JD and Bogie each had 44 Ks, Dalbec 38, Bradley 34.

 

Yoshida has 15 in 160 PA in '23... last year at this time, Franchy had 20 in 83 PA.

 

Story has horrible plate discipline.

 

That's my take away watching him last year.

 

Very similar to Kike, regardless of K stats.

[mvp 78]

I've never been too concerned about high K's unless the guy sucks.

 

Bogey has really dropped off, after his hot start.

 

1.093 after 54 PAs

 

.993 after 94 PAs

.606 in his last 93 PAs

 

 

@redsoxstats

Bogey comes into the series hitting .214/.340/.333 over the last month and .254 with a .712 OPS since April 6th. This season he's had a huge drop in out of zone swing% which has him walking at a career best 12%

 

You can increase the sample size a bit more and see that he really had a hot first week and then really hasn't done much since.

 

SLG, ISO, Brl, Hard Hit are all down from '21 and prior. The concerns of a drop in power we saw last year have carried forward.

[mvp 78]

Story has horrible plate discipline.

 

That's my take away watching him last year.

 

Very similar to Kike, regardless of K stats.

 

Story was horrendous his first two years in the league and then fixed himself. He struggled adjusting to the AL last year. We'll see if he can get that rate back down to what it was in 18-21 (23-26%).