A Realistic View of 2023: Part II

[Maxbialystock]

The pen could start being fine, tonight. Losing Schreiber hurts, but we still have others that have done well, this year, despite some recent melt-downs.

 

According to one site, Crawford may return by May 19th and Whitlock by the 26th.

 

 

Zowee!!! Tonight?????

 

This I gotta see.

 

However, if Pivetta gives away a bunch of runs early, I will not expect Cora to try to fix it with the bull pen--unless of course our hitters also go on a rampage.

[Maxbialystock]

Just like last year Houck started in the rotation, because of injuries. I don’t think it helps him any to be jerked, back, and forth through.

 

You could well be right.

 

But my guess is that Houck wants to be thrown in that briar patch--going back and forth between starting and relieving--if that's the only way to get to start.

[Nick]

I still think we can get to 90.

 

I'm less optimistic than a week ago, but I'm more optimistic than I was before the 8 game win streak.

 

The rotation is starting to take shape. I had wished we'd be further along with the shape-building after a quarter of the season, but we are still close enough to have hopes.

 

The next step is finding starter #4 and maybe fixing the pen by adding Houck to it.

 

Getting Rodriguez and now Crawford (Friday?) will help the pen. Same goes for the return of Whitlock, possibly 2 rehab starts from returning to the parent club. That will push someone else to the pen, if not him.

 

I then wait for Duvall, Story and or Mondesi. Who knows when Arroyo will return. I'm tired of him.

[Old Red]

You could well be right.

 

But my guess is that Houck wants to be thrown in that briar patch--going back and forth between starting and relieving--if that's the only way to get to start.

 

Agree, and I think most pitchers having an option would rather start then be in the pen.

[moonslav59]

Zowee!!! Tonight?????

 

This I gotta see.

 

However, if Pivetta gives away a bunch of runs early, I will not expect Cora to try to fix it with the bull pen--unless of course our hitters also go on a rampage.

 

I said "could" not "should" or "would."

 

Pens are always fickle.

[moonslav59]

Zowee!!! Tonight?????

 

This I gotta see.

 

However, if Pivetta gives away a bunch of runs early, I will not expect Cora to try to fix it with the bull pen--unless of course our hitters also go on a rampage.

 

Okay, Max. I'm not going to gloat, because I predicted nothing, but I hope you can see how yesterday's results don't have very much to do with today's results.

 

Trends turn on a dime in MLB, especially with RP'ers and pens.

 

Whodathunk Sheriff & Garza, of all people?

 

Good to see Wink snap out of it, despite the two hits allowed.

 

Onward and upward... (I hope!)

 

 

 

[notin]

Agree, and I think most pitchers having an option would rather start then be in the pen.

 

More money in starting. But relieving is simply easier work…

[moonslav59]

More money in starting. But relieving is simply easier work…

 

Be a starter is being the stud.

 

Who gets the free beers after a win?

[moonslav59]

Let's hope tonight's win stopped the bleeding and is a sign of more to come.

 

It was good to see the offense break out of their funk, the pen do well, again, and even Pivetta getting past a bad inning and getting us into the 6th.

 

Lot's of new names, these last few days. Let's hope getting our regulars back will bring us better results.

[moonslav59]

We should have known we'd never have all our pitchers and everyday players healthy, at the same time, but here is a possible look at the elusive dream.

 

Pitching:

Crawford > Sheriff

Whitlock> Garza

Schreiber> DFA Bleier

 

Everyday:

Arroyo> E Valdez

Mondesi> Reyes (no options remaining)

Story> Tapia (no options remaining)

Duvall> Refsnyder (no options remaining)

 

No way this all happens, but it's an interesting puzzle to try and solve.

 

Red Sox Injury Report:

 

Red Sox injuries and roster moves

WWW.MLB.COM

---

LATEST NEWS

 

Wednesday: Kike

Friday: Crawford

5 Days from Sunday? Whitlock (one more start in AAA?)

Late May> Arroyo

May 31> Schreiber

June 9> Duvall (likely later)

Mid June> Chang

June or later> Mondesi

July> Story

TBD> W Mills

Sept?> Kelly

 

 

 

Edited May 17, 2023 by moonslav59

[Maxbialystock]

Okay, Max. I'm not going to gloat, because I predicted nothing, but I hope you can see how yesterday's results don't have very much to do with today's results.

 

Trends turn on a dime in MLB, especially with RP'ers and pens.

 

Whodathunk Sheriff & Garza, of all people?

 

Good to see Wink snap out of it, despite the two hits allowed.

 

Onward and upward... (I hope!)

 

 

 

By all means gloat. It was a great call even with “could” in there. Heck, even Pivetta stuck around for one out in the 6th. The bullpen was flawless.

[moonslav59]

By all means gloat. It was a great call even with “could” in there. Heck, even Pivetta stuck around for one out in the 6th. The bullpen was flawless.

 

My point was that I know you've seen enough baseball and watched enough trends reverse on a dime, that I'm not sure why you can't entertain the idea of "could."

 

Our pen has been good to very good for about 40 games, then was bad for 2, yet you weigh those two games way more than they should be.

 

Now, if Jansen is hurt, or something, and we just saw Schreiber go on the IL, that's different, and I the concern over Jansen's loss of velo after his amped up game vs his old team, the Braves, but why assume the worst?

[mvp 78]

At what point can we start BELIEVING in Duran?

[Old Red]

At what point can we start BELIEVING in Duran?

 

Even I have started to believe, and I was as hard on Duran as anyone, but to get all the way there I still need to see him do it for a longer period of time. If he’s still playing well at the all star break I’m in.

[mvp 78]

Duran vs LHP:

OBP 391

wRC+ 120

 

His power is down vs LHP (421 SLG vs 627 SLG), but he's not overwhelmed or showing a horrible split. Granted it's only 19 AB's vs 75 against RHP. Still working on a very SSS.

[notin]

At what point can we start BELIEVING in Duran?

 

I’m ok with it.

 

If he was struggling, I’d have given up on him by not…

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

Duran vs LHP:

OBP 391

wRC+ 120

 

His power is down vs LHP (421 SLG vs 627 SLG), but he's not overwhelmed or showing a horrible split. Granted it's only 19 AB's vs 75 against RHP. Still working on a very SSS.

 

Duran has visibly changed his approach. He's going with the pitch (instead of trying to hit it out of Worcester when he's in Boston), and thinking double out-of-the-box on every single. That aggressiveness, fueled by confidence, has carried over on defense, too.

[moonslav59]

Duran has visibly changed his approach. He's going with the pitch (instead of trying to hit it out of Worcester when he's in Boston), and thinking double out-of-the-box on every single. That aggressiveness, fueled by confidence, has carried over on defense, too.

 

He's been tweaking his swing for years, so it's not a huge surprise that he finally found an approach that works. I was highly skeptical from day one on him.

 

What shocks me the most is his defense. It is very rare to see a player at a premium position reinvent himself, virtually overnight. He went from sucky suck to pretty good in just a few months of winter focus and workouts.

 

Good for him!

 

Great for us!

 

I'm sure pitchers will adjust to his new approach, and he may need to further tweak something to compensate, but I'm liking what I see, so far. I'm hopeful he can keep it up.

[moonslav59]

Last night, we kept pace with our two closest WC competitors (NYY & HOU, who also won,) and here are the updated WC standings after 43 games:

 

+3.0 BAL (not sure they can stay here all season, unless they buy at the deadline, which hasn't happened in forever.)

 

0.0 TOR (has lost 2 straight but is 6-4 in last 10)

0.0 NYY (playing better, now at 7-3 in last 10)

 

-1.0 HOU (keep promoting good, young pitchers to replace injured ones)

 

-1.5 BOS (4-6 in last 10)

-2.5 LAA (3-7)

 

-3.0 SEA (6-4)

 

One at a time, guys!

 

[Maxbialystock]

Last night, we kept pace with our two closest WC competitors (NYY & HOU, who also won,) and here are the updated WC standings after 43 games:

 

+3.0 BAL (not sure they can stay here all season, unless they buy at the deadline, which hasn't happened in forever.)

 

0.0 TOR (has lost 2 straight but is 6-4 in last 10)

0.0 NYY (playing better, now at 7-3 in last 10)

 

-1.0 HOU (keep promoting good, young pitchers to replace injured ones)

 

-1.5 BOS (4-6 in last 10)

-2.5 LAA (3-7)

 

-3.0 SEA (6-4)

 

One at a time, guys!

 

 

Given the usual title of this thread, I think it's also worth noting that your somewhat optimistic View of 2023 has been the most consistent and--dare I say it?--realistic.

 

The hitting is way better than expected, especially without Story and Duvall, the rotation has shown a few rays of hope, and the bullpen just might have recovered. Plus Whitlock and Crawford, both due back this month, should help. Defense is still an issue.

Edited May 17, 2023 by Maxbialystock

[moonslav59]

Given the usual title of this thread, I think it's also worth nothing that your somewhat optimistic View of 2023 has been the most consistent and--dare I say it?--realistic.

 

The hitting is way better than expected, especially without Story and Duvall, the rotation has shown a few rays of hope, and the bullpen just might have recovered. Plus Whitlock and Crawford, both due back this month, should help. Defense is still an issue.

 

I found it weird that so many felt like losing Bogey and JD was going to be a big hit to the offense, when both did not produce all that much in 2022.

 

When you consider Story and Duvall being out for almost the whole first quarter of 2023 and Kike, Casas and Arroyo starting off so slowly, it does seem a little surprising our offense has been this good, but the guys we have, now are not chumps. I do not disagree with your term "no-names," but guys like Turner, Yoshida, Verdugo and Devers have some history of very good offense, including very recently.

 

EValdez and Duran might have surprised many, but they both have hit very well in the minors, and although many who do well in the minors fall flat on their faces, some do turn out okay.

 

We've had some good extended depth show up, this year, and that is part of what I have pointed out about Bloom building up the 40 man roster depth and beyond from, perhaps a decades low point in 2020.

 

Chang, Tapia, Valdez, Wong, McGuire, Refsnyder and even late additions like Reyes have all done some helpful things, this year.

 

What might happen when Story & Duvall return? Even Mondesi could give us a big boost.

 

What if Casas explodes?

 

I'm still thinking, as Devers enters prime, he could have an out of this world season, too.

 

We are seeing Dugo looking like he's on pace for a career year, maybe others will, too.

[moonslav59]

I found it weird that so many felt like losing Bogey and JD was going to be a big hit to the offense, when both did not produce all that much in 2022.

 

When you consider Story and Duvall being out for almost the whole first quarter of 2023 and Kike, Casas and Arroyo starting off so slowly, it does seem a little surprising our offense has been this good, but the guys we have, now are not chumps. I do not disagree with your term "no-names," but guys like Turner, Yoshida, Verdugo and Devers have some history of very good offense, including very recently.

 

EValdez and Duran might have surprised many, but they both have hit very well in the minors, and although many who do well in the minors fall flat on their faces, some do turn out okay.

 

We've had some good extended depth show up, this year, and that is part of what I have pointed out about Bloom building up the 40 man roster depth and beyond from, perhaps a decades low point in 2020.

 

Chang, Tapia, Valdez, Wong, McGuire, Refsnyder and even late additions like Reyes have all done some helpful things, this year.

 

What might happen when Story & Duvall return? Even Mondesi could give us a big boost.

 

What if Casas explodes?

 

I'm still thinking, as Devers enters prime, he could have an out of this world season, too.

 

We are seeing Dugo looking like he's on pace for a career year, maybe others will, too.

 

So many posters seemed to blame most of the 2022 woes on the pen, and Bloom finally took it seriously. Adding Jansen, Martin, Joely and long shot Mills to replace Strahm, Diekman, Robles, Sawamura and Davis should have been viewed as a major improvement.

 

Now, the rotation was a different matter. We lost or 3 best SP'ers: Wacha, nate and HIll, but again, look more closely. The 3 combined for 69 GS'd which is really just 2 full season starters + a couple starts.

 

Expecting Kluber to fill one of those two slots was a stretch, but the $10M spent was more than he spent on Wacha ($7M) or Hill (($5M.) It was almost as much as those two combined, and not many had high hopes for Wacha/Hill, last winter. The other slot was left ro Sale & Paxton- two guys none of us wanted to count on. No doubt, the top of the rotation was a major dice roll that does not look all that good, right now, except for maybe Sale and Paxton going forward. It was okay, to me, to expect the same from Pivetta- not great/ not bad.

 

Here is where I think some major improvement should have been expected:

14 Wink 5.89

12 Craw 5.47

11 Bello 4.71> expected more GS and a better ERA in '23 based on how he ended '22

9 Whitlock 3.45> expected more GS and a major improvement over Crawink's '22 ERAs.

4 Houck 3.15> expected more starts or a major pen help

5 Seabold 11.29/ 3 Davis 5.47> Filled by Whitlock/Houck/Crawink

 

2022 GS (ERA)

[Bellhorn04]

I found it weird that so many felt like losing Bogey and JD was going to be a big hit to the offense, when both did not produce all that much in 2022.

 

Maybe because they were #2 and #3 on the team in OPS?

[Maxbialystock]

Maybe because they were #2 and #3 on the team in OPS?

 

Too many empty hits by JDM and too many K's with RISP last year. Remember the games we watched? He was a godsend in 2018, the good bat who made all other Sox bats better.

 

As for Bogey, still a good all around SS and good hitter. But he turns 31 this year, and that contract is for $280M. Think about those two numbers. If the Padres are wildly optimistic, they can assume Bogey has 8 good years left, which means they are really paying him $35M a year. Also, Bogey had 15 dingers last year vs. 23 in 2021, 11 in 2020 (in 50 games), and 33 in 2019.

[moonslav59]

Maybe because they were #2 and #3 on the team in OPS?

 

Replacing a .790 DH should not have been viewed as catastrophic.

 

Needing to replace Bogey's offense was a major issue. It was obvious, Bloom did not look to equal his numbers at SS, but rather to project upgrades at other positions (LF, CF, 1B and even DH) to make up for his loss.

 

It seemed like many the losses on offense of JD and Bogey were based on memories of 2018, 2019 and 2021 for JD, which is fine, but I was looking at improving on the 2022 offense, which was not bad (9th in runs and OPS).

 

Yoshida, Turner, Duvall and projected improvements at 1B and possibly 2B (healthy Story/Arroyo/Kike) seemed to more than make up for the loss.

 

[moonslav59]

Too many empty hits by JDM and too many K's with RISP last year. Remember the games we watched? He was a godsend in 2018, the good bat who made all other Sox bats better.

 

As for Bogey, still a good all around SS and good hitter. But he turns 31 this year, and that contract is for $280M. Think about those two numbers. If the Padres are wildly optimistic, they can assume Bogey has 8 good years left, which means they are really paying him $35M a year. Also, Bogey had 15 dingers last year vs. 23 in 2021, 11 in 2020 (in 50 games), and 33 in 2019.

 

JD was also at .693 his last 100 games of 2022. A change was the right idea.

 

The Bogey idea was a big gamble, but Yoshida and others do seem to have picked up the slack, and then some, and we haven't even seen Casas, Kike and a few others hit like we thought they might.

[mvp 78]

Replacing a .790 DH should not have been viewed as catastrophic.

 

Needing to replace Bogey's offense was a major issue. It was obvious, Bloom did not look to equal his numbers at SS, but rather to project upgrades at other positions (LF, CF, 1B and even DH) to make up for his loss.

 

It seemed like many the losses on offense of JD and Bogey were based on memories of 2018, 2019 and 2021 for JD, which is fine, but I was looking at improving on the 2022 offense, which was not bad (9th in runs and OPS).

Yoshida, Turner, Duvall and projected improvements at 1B and possibly 2B (healthy Story/Arroyo/Kike) seemed to more than make up for the loss.

 

 

Turner is only hitting 760. JD is currently hitting 794.

[Bellhorn04]

Our offense is fine, it's been a plus, better than expected really.

 

It's the other side of the ball that's the concern.

[moonslav59]

Our offense is fine, it's been a plus, better than expected really.

 

It's the other side of the ball that's the concern.

 

I guess my point was that it should have been expected.

[mvp 78]

Our offense is fine, it's been a plus, better than expected really.

 

It's the other side of the ball that's the concern.

 

What if I told you the team that SCORES THE MOST RUNS wins the game?