A Realistic View of 2023: Part II

[moonslav59]

He had it long before he came to the Sox.

 

Indeed. He's pitched in 7 seasons. Even if you count it as 6, he's average less than 100 IP per season (583 IP.)

[moonslav59]

I think Opening Day rotation will end up being:

Sale

Kluber

Houck

Pivetta

Crawford

 

Looks right. Who has the best chance at squeezing in?

 

Wink?

 

Mata?

 

Walter?

[mvp 78]

Looks right. Who has the best chance at squeezing in?

 

Wink?

 

Mata?

 

Walter?

 

Winckowski, mainly because it's just a short term solution. Whitlock and Paxton SHOULD be part of the rotation sometime in April.

 

Walter will be in AAA for April/May. If he's shoving down there, he'll force his way into a spot.

[moonslav59]

Winckowski, mainly because it's just a short term solution. Whitlock and Paxton SHOULD be part of the rotation sometime in April.

 

Walter will be in AAA for April/May. If he's shoving down there, he'll force his way into a spot.

 

So, you have Walter ahead of Mata.

[mvp 78]

So, you have Walter ahead of Mata.

 

For the rotation, maybe? IDK. I don't see either being in the opening day rotation.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

I think Opening Day rotation will end up being:

Sale

Kluber

Houck

Pivetta

Crawford

 

There's still plenty of time for one of your first three to pull a body part and wind up on Cripple Creek. No rotation has more downside.

 

Strategically, I see Mata with his frame/delivery as more of a starter, even if it's one time through (with the hope he evolves into a 5-inning guy), and Walter -- with his as-yet-unhurt Sale-type stuff, as a lethal reliever.

[notin]

Abreu 60day IL

 

Well there is the 40 man roster opening.

[moonslav59]

Well there is the 40 man roster opening.

 

Gotta be Alfaro with Wong questionable.

[mvp 78]

There's still plenty of time for one of your first three to pull a body part and wind up on Cripple Creek. No rotation has more downside.

 

Strategically, I see Mata with his frame/delivery as more of a starter, even if it's one time through (with the hope he evolves into a 5-inning guy), and Walter -- with his as-yet-unhurt Sale-type stuff, as a lethal reliever.

 

Have you seen Mata's Innings pitched per year?

 

2016: 61

2017: 77

2018: 72

2019: 105

2020: 0

2021: 0

2022: 83

 

He's a perfect match for this oft-injured rotation!

[mvp 78]

Well there is the 40 man roster opening.

 

I'm not saying it actually happened. It was just my guess.

[moonslav59]

Have you seen Mata's Innings pitched per year?

 

2016: 61

2017: 77

2018: 72

2019: 105

2020: 0

2021: 0

2022: 83

 

He's a perfect match for this oft-injured rotation!

 

Until he gets hurt, he should be high on the depth chart.

[notin]

I'm not saying it actually happened. It was just my guess.

 

Oh. I thought you had some info. My bad for not checking it out…

[mvp 78]

Oh. I thought you had some info. My bad for not checking it out…

 

I was just reading the tea leaves with what Cora said.

 

"He'll be out for a while," Alex Cora said.

[mvp 78]

Until he gets hurt, he should be high on the depth chart.

 

They are trying to go with guys that don't give up many bb's.

 

Mata:

2019 AA: 4.02/9

2022 AA: 4.25/9

2022 AAA: 5.79/9

 

That gives me a little pause to the Mata rotation hype train as well as the injury stuff.

 

Most likely it's just going to be Crawford/Winckowski in the rotation until Mata/Walter prove that they are ready.

[moonslav59]

They are trying to go with guys that don't give up many bb's.

 

Mata:

2019 AA: 4.02/9

2022 AA: 4.25/9

2022 AAA: 5.79/9

 

That gives me a little pause to the Mata rotation hype train as well as the injury stuff.

 

Most likely it's just going to be Crawford/Winckowski in the rotation until Mata/Walter prove that they are ready.

 

I'm not sure the 3.5 BB/9 rates by Winck and Crawford are impressive enough to outweigh Mata's pluses, but since they have experience, I think they both are ahead of Mata on the SP'er depth chart.

 

I see Mata being close to Walter, if not ahead on that list.

[mvp 78]

I'm not sure the 3.5 BB/9 rates by Winck and Crawford are impressive enough to outweigh Mata's pluses, but since they have experience, I think they both are ahead of Mata on the SP'er depth chart.

 

I see Mata being close to Walter, if not ahead on that list.

 

Wickowski's 2 seasons in AAA: 2.25 and 2.64, which is HALF of Mata's

Crawford's 2 seasons in AAA: 2.79 and 2.22, which is HALF of Mata's

 

Their bb rates increased in MLB? What do you think Mata's will do? Probably go to 6.5 or higher and his k rate will drop.

 

Brandon Walter 2022 in AA: 12.24 k/9, 0.54 bb/9

 

The only reason Brasier is still on this team is because of his low bb rate. I bet Walter may be closer than Mata simply because he gives up fewer passes. The Sox have talked about that focus over and over this offseason.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

So, you have Walter ahead of Mata.

 

I do for a bullpen role, especially with the difference in their strike-throwing reps...

[mvp 78]

I do for a bullpen role, especially with the difference in their strike-throwing reps...

 

Shhhh, that doesn't matter to moon, until it's for an argument he wants to make.

[moonslav59]

Shhhh, that doesn't matter to moon, until it's for an argument he wants to make.

 

I thought we were talking about the SP'er depth chart.

 

I'm fine with any of these guys being used in the pen. I'm not sure where they should be placed on the pen depth chart. Where they are on the SP'er chart, especially with 3 guys hurt, might determine where they are on that list.

 

I'm not sure what "doesn't matter" comment is all about, except to try and stir things up.

 

I'm fine with someone pivoting to another issue, especially when he was clear about doing so.

[mvp 78]

I thought we were talking about the SP'er depth chart.

 

I'm fine with any of these guys being used in the pen. I'm not sure where they should be placed on the pen depth chart. Where they are on the SP'er chart, especially with 3 guys hurt, might determine where they are on that list.

 

I'm not sure what "doesn't matter" comment is all about, except to try and stir things up.

 

I'm fine with someone pivoting to another issue, especially when he was clear about doing so.

 

You don't think the Sox care about bb rate in the rotation? Kluber was signed in large part because he's in the 99th percentile for bb rate (1.15).

[moonslav59]

You don't think the Sox care about bb rate in the rotation? Kluber was signed in large part because he's in the 99th percentile for bb rate (1.15).

 

I never came close to saying that. I actually agree, that seems to be the direction they are moving towards- not that it wasn't a priority before.

 

Certainly, mata's high BB rate might move him down the list, but he does have several areas where he is clearly better than Wink, Craw, Murphy and Walter. I'm not sure it's by enough to outweigh the walks.

 

I was basically just asking where you had Mata and said I thought he was close to or ahead of Walter. I'm not sure how you got me thinking the Sox don't value BB/9 from that, but I must be wrong, since all your posts are "perfect."

[mvp 78]

all your posts are "perfect."

 

I know.

[moonslav59]

It looks like the injury issues are mounting. I hope this is not a sign of what is to come, during the season.

 

We already look to start the year with these guys on the IL or bench due to injuries:

 

60 Day

Story

 

10 Day or not ready by opening day? (CBS ETAs)

Mondesi (at least May 1st)

Abreu (at least April 15) Game 14 of season

Paxton (at least April 10) Game 9 of season

Whitlock (at least April 8) Game 7 of season

Bello (at least April 8th)

Wong (questionable for opening day)

Turner (probable for opening day)

 

 

[Hugh2]

Wickowski's 2 seasons in AAA: 2.25 and 2.64, which is HALF of Mata's

Crawford's 2 seasons in AAA: 2.79 and 2.22, which is HALF of Mata's

 

Their bb rates increased in MLB? What do you think Mata's will do? Probably go to 6.5 or higher and his k rate will drop.

 

Brandon Walter 2022 in AA: 12.24 k/9, 0.54 bb/9

 

The only reason Brasier is still on this team is because of his low bb rate. I bet Walter may be closer than Mata simply because he gives up fewer passes. The Sox have talked about that focus over and over this offseason.

 

Right now those two are ahead of Mata on the depth chart, and baring a rash of injuries a good performance by at least one of them can keep Mata down on the farm most of the season to continue developing. But I wouldn't be surprised if he's surpassed those guys by mid season.

[moonslav59]

Right now those two are ahead of Mata on the depth chart, and baring a rash of injuries a good performance by at least one of them can keep Mata down on the farm most of the season to continue developing. But I wouldn't be surprised if he's surpassed those guys by mid season.

 

I’d put Wink and Crawford ahead of Mata, too. My point was only about Mata v Walter as SPers in early 2023. (I have both ahead of Murphy.)

 

Man, we are already reaching down to #8 !

[mvp 78]

Right now those two are ahead of Mata on the depth chart, and baring a rash of injuries a good performance by at least one of them can keep Mata down on the farm most of the season to continue developing. But I wouldn't be surprised if he's surpassed those guys by mid season.

 

By midseason? For sure! There’s a decent chance.

[mvp 78]

Right now those two are ahead of Mata on the depth chart, and baring a rash of injuries a good performance by at least one of them can keep Mata down on the farm most of the season to continue developing. But I wouldn't be surprised if he's surpassed those guys by mid season.

 

As long as they aren’t calling Brad Peacock up, I’m happy.

[moonslav59]

Rafaela defensive clips...

 

Red Sox prospect Ceddanne Rafaela critiques his own highlights

WWW.MLB.COM

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FORT MYERS, Fla. -- Take any defensive cliché you prefer, and it applies to Ceddanne Rafaela. He’s a future Gold Glove contender. Water covers 71 percent of the Earth’s surface; he covers the remaining 29 percent. He’s a highlight reel all to himself. OK, that last one is true, and

[harmony]

MLB Pipeline has released its Top 30 prospect list for each team, including the Red Sox:

 

Red Sox Top Prospects | MLB.com

WWW.MLB.COM

---

The Official Site of Major League Baseball

[moonslav59]

MLB Pipeline has released its Top 30 prospect list for each team, including the Red Sox:

 

Red Sox Top Prospects | MLB.com

WWW.MLB.COM

---

The Official Site of Major League Baseball

 

Not much surprising.