Devers signs 11 year $331 million extension

[redsoxrules]

Xander was ages 28-30.

 

Devers was 23-25.

 

Which one will better over the next decade?

 

Time will tell.

And that wasn't the argument.

[redsoxrules]

You're all missing the point. You can go on and praise the FO for this deal all you want but the fact is they f***ed up last year by signing story by instead reworking Bogeys deal which they could of gotten him way cheaper than what he just signed for this off season and shorter years. This team would look much better with XB and Devers than just Devers

[notin]

Time will tell.

And that wasn't the argument.

 

It’s certainly a more important question when deciding who to sign long term…

[Jasonbay44]

You're all missing the point. You can go on and praise the FO for this deal all you want but the fact is they f***ed up last year by signing story by instead reworking Bogeys deal which they could of gotten him way cheaper than what he just signed for this off season and shorter years. This team would look much better with XB and Devers than just Devers

 

You can be unhappy Xander left, unhappy Story signed and and still be happy Devers is in the long term plans.

[Old Red]

You're all missing the point. You can go on and praise the FO for this deal all you want but the fact is they f***ed up last year by signing story by instead reworking Bogeys deal which they could of gotten him way cheaper than what he just signed for this off season and shorter years. This team would look much better with XB and Devers than just Devers

 

I agree with this 100%.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

 

All in all, I don't see Bloom winter 2021-2022 as being a net negative, but it could have been better, for sure.

 

Here's where we differ: I give Bloom credit for making some key additions before the '21 season -- esp. Whitlock and Kike -- and then one big one at the deadline with Schwarber that changed the culture of the batting order to get them deep into the ALCS.

 

However, his moves and non-moves a year ago turned a WS contender into a last place team. And that includes acquiring injury risks and not providing the roster with the proper depth to overcome them.

 

But focus on '23: Devers' deal -- whether it was ownership overriding Bloom's methodology or not -- makes this offseason a triumph, because there will be no major contract distractions looming. If Bloom fills in the last few obvious holes, there can definitely be a path forward for improvement; if not, the rebuild will still have positive vibes with new faces and young guys trying to prove themselves.

[notin]

You're all missing the point. You can go on and praise the FO for this deal all you want but the fact is they f***ed up last year by signing story by instead reworking Bogeys deal which they could of gotten him way cheaper than what he just signed for this off season and shorter years. This team would look much better with XB and Devers than just Devers

 

If you go by fWAR, from 2018-2021:

 

Bogaerts 16.3

Story 15.8

 

Not much difference over a 4 year stretch…

[moonslav59]

Maybe, but he was still pitching.

 

Yes. He even pitched in the ALDS.

 

The 5 IP in Sept '21 were not that bad, so one does wonder if he was hurt.

 

Here is Barnes' 2021 season cherry-picked sample sizes:

 

2.25 ERA/.477 OPS Against in 44 IP

20.77 ERA/ 1.510 OPS Against 4.1 IP Aug 7- 24th

2.84 ERA/ .739 OPS Against last 6.1 IP of 2021

 

One could argue, he really just had a bad 4 IP stretch in 2021, and just that tiny sample size poisoned his whole persona.

[mvp 78]

If you go by fWAR, from 2018-2021:

 

Bogaerts 16.3

Story 15.8

 

Not much difference over a 4 year stretch…

 

Hey that's not fair!

[redsoxrules]

Hey that's not fair!

 

Why are we leaving 2022 out of here? Cherry picking stats I see

[moonslav59]

 

However, his moves and non-moves a year ago turned a WS contender into a last place team. And that includes acquiring injury risks and not providing the roster with the proper depth to overcome them.

 

 

His moves were a net positive, even with the JBJ trade weighing it down heavily.

 

His non-moves, in hindsight, should have been to foresee the decline of key vets and trade them away before they declined, even fan faves like Bogey, JD, Nate and guys looking pretty promising after their finishes in 2021: Dalbec, Kike, Robles... Those were worse than not adding a closer, IMO.

 

The returning vets let the team down by more than the changes Bloom made. Do you differ with me on that?

 

Plus: Wacha, Hill, Strahm, Schreiber, Refsnyder

 

Meh: Story

 

Negative: JBJ, Deikman, Robles

[moonslav59]

Why are we leaving 2022 out of here? Cherry picking stats I see

 

Maybe to justify why we signed Story before 2022 -at a fraction of what Bogey got, and likely less than what Bogey'd have accepted last spring?

[notin]

Why are we leaving 2022 out of here? Cherry picking stats I see

 

1. It didn’t figure into the decision to sign Story.

2. Story was injured and not a shortstop, making comparisons more difficult.

[moonslav59]

1. It didn’t figure into the decision to sign Story.

2. Story was injured and not a shortstop, making comparisons more difficult.

 

2021-2022 Old School

 

.301 38 152 Bogey (1234 PAs)

.246 40 141 Story (991 PAs)

 

fWAR

10.4 Bogey (22.4 '18-22)

5.1 Story (18.2 '18-22)

 

bWAR

10.7 Bogey (23.4 '18-22)

6.7 Story (22.4 '18-22)

 

[iortiz]

2021-2022 Old School

 

.301 38 152 Bogey (1234 PAs)

.246 40 141 Story (991 PAs)

 

fWAR

10.4 Bogey (22.4 '18-22)

5.1 Story (18.2 '18-22)

 

bWAR

10.7 Bogey (23.4 '18-22)

6.7 Story (22.4 '18-22)

 

 

Cherry picking?

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

 

The returning vets let the team down by more than the changes Bloom made. Do you differ with me on that?

 

 

It's a hard call to blame three guys who made the All-Star team as the main reason the club faltered. Arguably, the second-half production of Bogey, and definitely Raffy, was diminished by nagging injuries. JD -- who knows -- the dead ball could've hurt him as much as a dead bat. However, all had less protection in the line-up without Schwarber, Renfroe and a healthy Kike. Story just wasn't the guy; except for one month, AL pitchers couldn't wait to throw to him.

[moonslav59]

It's a hard call to blame three guys who made the All-Star team as the main reason the club faltered. Arguably, the second-half production of Bogey, and definitely Raffy, was diminished by nagging injuries. JD -- who knows -- the dead ball could've hurt him as much as a dead bat. However, all had less protection in the line-up without Schwarber, Renfroe and a healthy Kike. Story just wasn't the guy; except for one month, AL pitchers couldn't wait to throw to him.

 

OK, Bogey and Devers increased their 2022 fWAR over 2021, but...

 

2021>2022 fWAR returning Vets

 

3.9> 0.5 Kike

2.8> 1.0 JD

2.0> 1.2 Dugo

1.0> 0.2 Arroyo

0.5> -0.1 Dalbec

0.5> -0.4 Plawecki

 

Pitching

5.7>1.0 Eovaldi

2.2>0.7 Houck

2.2>1.5 Pivetta

1.6>1.4 Whitlock

1.3>0.1 Barnes

1.0> 0.0 Taylor

0.8> 0.2 Sale

_______________________________________________

 

To me, the players above this line were way more responsible for the decline in 2022 than below this line, and the biggest drop below the line was ERod to Hill, yes slightly bigger than Renfroe to JBJ decline in RF. I'm glad we didn't bring ERod back!

 

Yes, Bloom mistakes...

2.0 Renfroe> -0.3 JBJ

 

Other changes at various levels of gains or losses:

 

0.8 Iggy& -0.3 Marwin> 2.4 Story

-0.2 Santana> 1.3 Refsnyder

0.5 Plawecki> 1.3 McGuire

 

3.9 ERod> 1.5 Hill

0.6 Perez> 1.5 Wacha

1.0 Richards> 1.7 Schreiber

0.6 Ottavino> 0.3 Strahm

Edited January 6, 2023 by moonslav59

[moonslav59]

Cherry picking?

 

No, actually providing several sample sizes to counter notin's one chosen timeframe.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

OK, Bogey and Devers increased their 2022 fWAR over 2021, but...

 

2021>2022 fWAR returning Vets

 

3.9> 0.5 Kike

2.8> 1.0 JD

2.0> 1.2 Dugo

1.0> 0.2 Arroyo

0.5> -0.1 Dalbec

0.5> -0.4 Plawecki

 

Pitching

5.7>1.0 Eovaldi

2.2>0.7 Houck

2.2>1.5 Pivetta

1.6>1.4 Whitlock

1.3>0.1 Barnes

1.0> 0.0 Taylor

0.8> 0.2 Sale

_______________________________________________

 

To me, the players above this line were way more responsible for the decline in 2022 than below this line, and the biggest drop below the line was ERod to Hill, yes slightly bigger than renfroe to JBJ. I'm glad we didn't bring ERod back!

 

Yes, Bloom mistakes...

2.0 Renfroe> -0.3 JBJ

 

Other changes at various levels of gains or losses:

 

0.8 Iggy& -0.3 Marwin> 2.4 Story

-0.2 Santana> 1.3 Refsnyder

0.5 Plawecki> 1.3 McGuire

 

3.9 ERod> 1.5 Hill

0.6 Perez> 1.5 Wacha

1.0 Richards> 1.7 Schreiber

0.6 Ottavino> 0.3 Strahm

 

Eovaldi was the big change, and there was just no viable contingency to replace the injured ace. Your data shows that ERod wasn't sufficiently replaced, either.

 

Houck pissed me off all year, and despite the numbers, Whitlock seemed way more valuable in '21.

 

At the plate, I would've thought Dalbec was the biggest downgrade of himself from '21, basically because he was invisible. This year seems like a make-or-break, wherever he lands.

[moonslav59]

Eovaldi was the big change, and there was just no viable contingency to replace the injured ace. Your data shows that ERod wasn't sufficiently replaced, either.

 

Houck pissed me off all year, and despite the numbers, Whitlock seemed way more valuable in '21.

 

At the plate, I would've thought Dalbec was the biggest downgrade of himself from '21, basically because he was invisible. This year seems like a make-or-break, wherever he lands.

 

Still, look at all the returning vet drop-offs compared to Bloom moves.

 

The ERod replacement was hard to match, but he chose right not to bring him back.

The Renfroe>JBJ move was horrible.

The rest were good, great or meh.

I did not list Schwarber. I guess I could have put: 1.2 Schwarber> 1.5 McGuire or -0.2 Pham. That would not change the net change much.

 

To me, the vet decline was so clearly the biggest reason for the decline:

-4.7 Nate

-3.4 Kike

-1.8 JD

-1.5 Houck

-1.2 Barnes

-1.0 Taylor

-0.9 Plawecki

-0.8 Arroyo

-0.7 Pivetta

-0.6 Dalbec (seemed like more)

 

vs

-2.4 ERod> Hill (nobody would take ERod over Hill in 2022), so I don't count this as a mistake.

 

-2.3 Renfroe> JBJ

-0.3 Ottavino> Strahm

 

The rest were plusses:

1.3 Story>Iggy & Marwin

1.1 Ref> Santana

0.9 Wacha> Perez

0.7 Schreiber> Richards

 

 

 

 

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

Still, look at all the returning vet drop-offs compared to Bloom moves.

 

The ERod replacement was hard to match, but he chose right not to bring him back.

The Renfroe>JBJ move was horrible.

The rest were good, great or meh.

I did not list Schwarber. I guess I could have put: 1.2 Schwarber> 1.5 McGuire or -0.2 Pham. That would not change the net change much.

 

To me, the vet decline was so clearly the biggest reason for the decline:

-4.7 Nate

-3.4 Kike

-1.8 JD

-1.5 Houck

-1.2 Barnes

-1.0 Taylor

-0.9 Plawecki

-0.8 Arroyo

-0.7 Pivetta

-0.6 Dalbec (seemed like more)

 

vs

-2.4 ERod> Hill (nobody would take ERod over Hill in 2022), so I don't count this as a mistake.

 

-2.3 Renfroe> JBJ

-0.3 Ottavino> Strahm

 

The rest were plusses:

1.3 Story>Iggy & Marwin

1.1 Ref> Santana

0.9 Wacha> Perez

0.7 Schreiber> Richards

 

 

 

 

 

Most of these match-ups are fair, but a good GM has to anticipate some regression and/or injuries and prepare accordingly. For example, Nate's history. Also, Barnes was broken, and nothing going into '22 showed anyone he was fixed.

 

I was going to question your Story comps, but was surprised to see Arroyo as '21's most games played at second base, with only 51. Kike was next with 47... then Marwin 37 and Chavis 22. Bloom really needs to leave Story at second, period.

 

Who on your list do you see as most likely bounce-back vets in '23? A healthy Kike would seem obvious, but he's also two years older. I'll nominate Arroyo, who hit .329 with an .806 in the second half last season. It kinda goes without saying that Pivetta and Dalbec need to improve.

[notin]

2021-2022 Old School

 

.301 38 152 Bogey (1234 PAs)

.246 40 141 Story (991 PAs)

 

fWAR

10.4 Bogey (22.4 '18-22)

5.1 Story (18.2 '18-22)

 

bWAR

10.7 Bogey (23.4 '18-22)

6.7 Story (22.4 '18-22)

 

 

His point was very specific about messing up by signing Story over Bogaerts. You can’t discredit that decision based on stuff that happened after it, like all of 2022…

[moonslav59]

Most of these match-ups are fair, but a good GM has to anticipate some regression and/or injuries and prepare accordingly. For example, Nate's history. Also, Barnes was broken, and nothing going into '22 showed anyone he was fixed.

 

But again, at what expense? Who do we not sign, so we could plan on Nate's decline?

 

Bloom already got us Wacha and Hill (3.3 fWAR combined) for $12M. the problem was he should have done better with that $12M?

 

Okay, we can beat the JBJ deal to death and add someone with his money added (over Renfroe) but that's not replacing the loss Nate gave us, alone.

 

I don't think expecting a massive Kike decline was reasonable- JD and Dalbec, yes. It's one thing to expect it, but it's another to plan for it. One of Bloom's biggest criticisms is that he's signing lower lever guys- I call it quantity over quality, but if you look at what we are saying now, is that he should have spread the Story and JBJ money over 6 slots: 2B, SP, Closer, RP, 1B, RF.

 

I think Bloom tried to fill the slots he felt could not be covered by in-system solutions, and it bit him in the ass, along with too many vets declining, all at once.

 

His non moves and moves were budget and prospect-protecting directed.

[moonslav59]

Who on your list do you see as most likely bounce-back vets in '23? A healthy Kike would seem obvious, but he's also two years older. I'll nominate Arroyo, who hit .329 with an .806 in the second half last season. It kinda goes without saying that Pivetta and Dalbec need to improve.

 

I'm doubting Dalbec even gets 100 PAs in 2022, if he's not traded, soon. Turner and Casas should take all his PAs.

 

My bounce-backs:

 

1. Kike

2. Story

3. Dugo

4. Devers is going to bust out in '23

 

I could see McGuire and Casas having big years, but would not call them "bounce backs."

 

Turner and Yoshida are very important.

 

Pitching?

 

Our whole rotation can be bounce back. Who will? I'm going with Sale and Whitlock.

 

Barnes will bounce back- not to first half 2021 levels, but to the point of being a solid set up guy like most of his career.

 

Houck has potential for a big bounce.

 

 

 

[moonslav59]

His point was very specific about messing up by signing Story over Bogaerts. You can’t discredit that decision based on stuff that happened after it, like all of 2022…

 

I get that, but I wanted to show that some numbers including 2022 don't show much difference, either.

[Bellhorn04]

The number of Debbie Downer posts on a thread about the Red Sox doing what most people have been hoping for is pretty hilarious.

[moonslav59]

The number of Debbie Downer posts on a thread about the Red Sox doing what most people have been hoping for is pretty hilarious.

 

It really exposes how some people can and never will be happy, no matter what.

 

The coulda-shoulda rants are absurd, at times, and without context most other times.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

The number of Debbie Downer posts on a thread about the Red Sox doing what most people have been hoping for is pretty hilarious.

 

But not even the Uncle Uppers think the Sox will have a better record in '23 just for bringing back a guy they already had on a cellar dweller.

 

However, the Devers' deal is cause for optimism on so many fronts: Raffy is now the load-bearing pillar in the entire reconstruction of the next sustained contender... his extension signifies the grand reopening of the bandbox relic on Lansdowne Street, paying top dollar for top talent... and with Raffy the life of the party, it will hopefully make Fenway an attractive destination again for other superstars to join in the festivities...

 

... and subtly, there's a new culture on a roster relieved of big contract distractions and impending relocations. The cloud of doubt that drained the '22 Sox' famous free agents and their teammates is gone -- maybe that alone will lead to a happier club.

[Bobe2]

The number of Debbie Downer posts on a thread about the Red Sox doing what most people have been hoping for is pretty hilarious.

 

All the Red Sox did was extend a guy they should have signed a year ago to a big contract, made him the centerpiece of the team to build around, without good players around him the Sox still suck, I’m glad they signed Raffy, but I’d rather have a winning team, but you guys are happy, JH wins

Florida property for sale with bridge, contact FSG

[notin]

But not even the Uncle Uppers think the Sox will have a better record in '23 just for bringing back a guy they already had on a cellar dweller.

 

However, the Devers' deal is cause for optimism on so many fronts: Raffy is now the load-bearing pillar in the entire reconstruction of the next sustained contender... his extension signifies the grand reopening of the bandbox relic on Lansdowne Street, paying top dollar for top talent... and with Raffy the life of the party, it will hopefully make Fenway an attractive destination again for other superstars to join in the festivities...

 

... and subtly, there's a new culture on a roster relieved of big contract distractions and impending relocations. The cloud of doubt that drained the '22 Sox' famous free agents and their teammates is gone -- maybe that alone will lead to a happier club.

 

 

The ‘22 Sox won 78 games with no pitching depth and a lot of pitching injuries. The lineup wasn’t really the problem. Yoshida, Casas and whoever plays SS/2b should improve a pretty good offense that lost Bogaerts, Cordero and Bradley. The bullpen does look like it should be a lot better. Turner (116) had roughly the same OPS+ as JD (117). So that’s pretty much a push at DH.

 

The rotation largely rests on Sale and Paxton. They might have a little more starter depth this year, but probably not enough, as they’re likely to tap into it quickly…

Edited January 7, 2023 by notin